Recording-2025-03-04T18:14:24

Overview of Employment, Inflation, and Prices

• Discussion starts with the predictable short-term noise in employment data.

• Transition to current economic topics: inflation, prices, and spending.

Major Economic Datasets from BLS

• Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Measures average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services over time.

• Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • Measures average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers.

  • Contrasts with CPI, as it assesses price changes on the producer side.

• Consumer Expenditure Survey

  • Gathers data about spending habits and expenditures of consumers.

Key Differences Between CPI and PPI

• CPI

  • Covers a broader range of purchased products and services, tracking monthly price changes.

  • Includes national, regional, and metro area indexes.

• PPI

  • National data only; covers over 10,000 industries and products.

  • Focuses on the changing costs for producers including intermediate and final goods.

Methodology of Data Collection

• Respondent participation in both CPI and PPI is voluntary and confidential.

  • Data is anonymized to avoid unfair advantages or disadvantages to companies.

  • Example of confidentiality: if only one company participates, their data won't be published to protect their business interests.

CPI Inflation Calculator Demonstration

• Demonstrated on BLS.gov: calculates inflation rates over chosen years.

• Example: $20 in 2019 has the same buying power as $25.25 in 2025, indicating a 20% price increase.

Analysis of CPI and PPI Trends

• Historical Data Analysis:

  • PPI as a leading indicator of CPI: when PPI rises, CPI usually follows.

• Comparative example with Breakfast Cereals:

  • Producer price increases often lead to higher consumer prices, though fluctuations differ.

Business Applications of PPI

• PPI is crucial for businesses to set prices and negotiate contracts based on industry trends.

• Example: Farmers can tie their product prices, like potatoes, to the PPI of related products.

Consumer Expenditure Survey Insights

• Annual survey collects consumers’ major and minor purchases over three months.

  • Helps assess product importance in the CPI.

• Provides demographic data about income and spending habits of consumers.

• Visual representation of annual expenditures: housing (32.9%), transportation (17%), food (12.9%).

• Explanation of how housing data is gathered through direct interviews and surveys.

Compensation and Working Conditions Data

• National Compensation Programs:

  1. Employment Cost Index (ECI)

     • Tracks labor cost changes and compensation per hour worked.

  2. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC)

     • Includes details about wages, benefits, and employer-paid costs.

  3. Employee Benefits Survey (EBS)

     • Measures the access and participation of workers in employer-provided benefit plans.

Graphical Data on Compensation

• Difference between current dollars (does not consider inflation) and constant dollars (adjusts for inflation).

• Illustrates how wage growth may not reflect true economic growth due to inflation's impact.

Workplace Injuries and Illnesses

• Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses:

  • Surveys over 250,000 establishments annually to track injuries.

  • Participation is mandatory for employers.

• Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries:

  • Comprehensive tracking of workplace fatalities using official records to ensure accuracy.

Trends in Workplace Injuries

• Data reflects real-world incidents and highlights significant increases in certain occupations during crises, e.g., heightened risks for nursing assistants during COVID-19.

Occupational Outlook Handbook Insights

• Provides projections for employment over a decade, focusing on major growing occupations, particularly in healthcare due to an aging population.

• Highlights fifty percent of the ten fastest-growing occupations are health-related.

• Useful for job seekers and graduates looking to understand career opportunities in the future.