Recording-2025-03-04T18:14:24

Overview of Employment, Inflation, and Prices

  • Discussion starts with the predictable short-term noise in employment data.

  • Transition to current economic topics: inflation, prices, and spending.

Major Economic Datasets from BLS

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    • Measures average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services over time.

  • Producer Price Index (PPI)

    • Measures average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers.

    • Contrasts with CPI, as it assesses price changes on the producer side.

  • Consumer Expenditure Survey

    • Gathers data about spending habits and expenditures of consumers.

Key Differences Between CPI and PPI

  • CPI

    • Covers a broader range of purchased products and services, tracking monthly price changes.

    • Includes national, regional, and metro area indexes.

  • PPI

    • National data only; covers over 10,000 industries and products.

    • Focuses on the changing costs for producers including intermediate and final goods.

Methodology of Data Collection

  • Respondent participation in both CPI and PPI is voluntary and confidential.

    • Data is anonymized to avoid unfair advantages or disadvantages to companies.

    • Example of confidentiality: if only one company participates, their data won't be published to protect their business interests.

CPI Inflation Calculator Demonstration

  • Demonstrated on BLS.gov: calculates inflation rates over chosen years.

  • Example: $20 in 2019 has the same buying power as $25.25 in 2025, indicating a 20% price increase.

Analysis of CPI and PPI Trends

  • Historical Data Analysis:

    • PPI as a leading indicator of CPI: when PPI rises, CPI usually follows.

  • Comparative example with Breakfast Cereals:

    • Producer price increases often lead to higher consumer prices, though fluctuations differ.

Business Applications of PPI

  • PPI is crucial for businesses to set prices and negotiate contracts based on industry trends.

  • Example: Farmers can tie their product prices, like potatoes, to the PPI of related products.

Consumer Expenditure Survey Insights

  • Annual survey collects consumers’ major and minor purchases over three months.

    • Helps assess product importance in the CPI.

  • Provides demographic data about income and spending habits of consumers.

  • Visual representation of annual expenditures: housing (32.9%), transportation (17%), food (12.9%).

  • Explanation of how housing data is gathered through direct interviews and surveys.

Compensation and Working Conditions Data

  • National Compensation Programs:

    1. Employment Cost Index (ECI)

      • Tracks labor cost changes and compensation per hour worked.

    2. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC)

      • Includes details about wages, benefits, and employer-paid costs.

    3. Employee Benefits Survey (EBS)

      • Measures the access and participation of workers in employer-provided benefit plans.

Graphical Data on Compensation

  • Difference between current dollars (does not consider inflation) and constant dollars (adjusts for inflation).

  • Illustrates how wage growth may not reflect true economic growth due to inflation's impact.

Workplace Injuries and Illnesses

  • Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses:

    • Surveys over 250,000 establishments annually to track injuries.

    • Participation is mandatory for employers.

  • Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries:

    • Comprehensive tracking of workplace fatalities using official records to ensure accuracy.

Trends in Workplace Injuries

  • Data reflects real-world incidents and highlights significant increases in certain occupations during crises, e.g., heightened risks for nursing assistants during COVID-19.

Occupational Outlook Handbook Insights

  • Provides projections for employment over a decade, focusing on major growing occupations, particularly in healthcare due to an aging population.

  • Highlights fifty percent of the ten fastest-growing occupations are health-related.

  • Useful for job seekers and graduates looking to understand career opportunities in the future.

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