Roman roads to prosperitt Dalgaard Kaarsen

Title:

Roman roads to prosperity: Persistence and non-persistence of public infrastructure

Authors:

Carl-Johan Dalgaard, Nicolai Kaarsen, Ola Olsson, Pablo Selaya

Introduction

• Research Focus: The study conducts an in-depth analysis of the historical link between ancient public infrastructure, specifically Roman roads, and its impact on contemporary economic activity. By examining the persistence of public goods, it seeks to understand how ancient investments have shaped modern economies.

• Historical Context:The research centers on the Roman Empire during its peak around 117 CE, a time when robust infrastructure facilitated governance, trade, and military activities. The correlation between the historical road density during this period and the present-day infrastructure and economic activity is meticulously explored.

Main Findings

• Higher Roman road density correlates with:

  • Greater modern road density: Areas that had extensive Roman road networks boast more developed road systems today, suggesting that infrastructure development accumulated over time.

  • Increased settlement formations in 500 CE: Regions with denser road networks supported larger and more complex settlements that endured through the centuries, providing enduring civic centers.

  • Enhanced economic activity in 2010-2020: Contemporary economic indicators, such as GDP growth, show a significant association with areas historically enriched by Roman infrastructure.

• Key Insight:In regions where wheeled transport was abandoned due to geographical or socio-political changes, the beneficial correlation between ancient road density and modern economic outcomes significantly weakened, indicating the essential role of transport modalities in sustaining economic vitality.

Methodology

• Sample Area:The researchers defined their primary study areas as grid cells of 1° x 1° encompassing regions within the Roman Empire to provide uniformity in analysis.

• Instruments Used:

  • Roman road data were derived from the Barrington Atlas of the Greek and Roman World, which catalogs ancient routes.

  • Modern road data were gathered from ESRI’s World Roads basemap, offering a comprehensive view of current transportation networks.

  • Socioeconomic indicators, such as nightlight intensity and population density, were utilized to gauge economic activity levels.

• Analytical Strategies:The research controlled for various confounding factors, including geographical features, institutional frameworks, and language, enabling the researchers to isolate and focus on the direct effects of Roman roads on infrastructure and economic outcomes.

Key Results

Link Between Roman Roads and Modern Infrastructure

• Persistence of Infrastructure:Areas boasting higher density of Roman roads during antiquity experience pronounced economic advantages today, illustrating the long-term benefits of well-planned infrastructure.

• Mechanisms of Influence:The emergence of market towns in historically significant areas supported ongoing economic activities, thereby reinforcing trade and community relations that persisted long past the fall of the Empire. Conversely, regions where Roman roads fell into disrepair experienced diminished economic activity and social cohesion, notably in the Middle East and North Africa.

Comparative Analysis by Region

• Europe vs. MENA:

  • Europe: Roman roads demonstrated a strong, ongoing positive correlation with contemporary infrastructure and regional economic activity, facilitating trade networks and economic integration.

  • MENA: In stark contrast, minimal persistence of roads was observed; the historical roads provided little predictive power for modern infrastructure or economic outcomes post-abandonment, highlighting a regional divergence in the effects of ancient roads.

Discussion

• Historical Impact on Development:The initial construction of Roman roads primarily aimed at military efficiency, which gradually evolved to support local economies. Nevertheless, the decay of these roads in specific regions over time significantly altered their long-term societal impacts and diminished their utility.

• Cultural and Institutional Effects:The findings suggest that persistence in infrastructure has the potential to sustain economic prosperity over centuries, independent of cultural or institutional legacies inherited from ancient Rome, thus prompting a reconsideration of how different societies can use historical infrastructure to foster modern development.

Concluding Thoughts

• Long-Term Implications:The evidence of infrastructural persistence emphasizes the critical role public goods provision plays in understanding comparative economic development across different regions and historical contexts.

• Future Research Directions:Suggested avenues for further research include exploring the impact of other forms of public infrastructure investments, such as railroads or bridges, and their long-term consequences to draw parallels with the enduring significance of Roman roads.

References

• A comprehensive list of bibliographic references was included to substantiate claims and findings, and to highlight the contributions of various authors in the field of economic history.

Figures

• Visual aids were provided to illustrate the correlation between ancient road density and contemporary economic indicators, enhancing understanding of the data and relationships explored in the study.