Week 4 - Religious Trends in Populations

Generational Changes

• Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964)

  • Loyalists: Stayed within America’s religious traditions

  • Returnees: Deviated from faith before returning to a religion

  • Dropouts: Moved away from or were never affiliated with religion

• Generation X (born 1965-1980)

  • Look a lot like Baby Boomers except less religious

  • 60% Christian (vs. 75% of Baby Boomers)

• Millennials (born 1981-1995)

  • Growing proportion of unaffiliated individuals

Religion’s Influence Over Time

• Increasing number of Americans believe religion is losing influence

  • 63% in 2000-2001, 76% in 2013

• Possible reasons

  • Less confidence in religious institutions

  • Questions about ethical standards of clergy

  • Sermons increasingly irrelevant to modern life

Actual Changes in Church Membership

• Below 50% in 2020 for first time

• Two contributing factors

  • Increasing % of unaffiliated individuals

  • Increasing % of self-identified religious individuals who do not attend services

• Among Christians, decline greater in Catholics than Protestants

Religious Switching

• 28% of Americans shift from faith in which they were raised (Gallup, 2009)

  • 44% if counting denominational shifts within Protestantism

  • Most switching among Catholics, least among Jews

  • Less common in conservative faiths

• Why switch?

  • Disagreement with teachings (40%)

  • Found more fulfilling faith (38%)

• How is switching viewed?

  • Possibly more deviant than dropping out

Inter-Religious Marriage

• Increasing over time

  • 22% in 1960s, 39% between 2010-2014

  • Usually between Protestant Christian denominations (in US)

    • Catholic, Jewish people less likely to intermarry

• More likely than intra-religious marriage to end in divorce

  • Usually after children are born

  • Especially when there is religious distance between spouses

Interesting Example: Modern Paganism

• Umbrella term referring to variety of religious beliefs developed in 1900s

• Draws influence from pre-Christian religions in Europe and other places

• Wicca may be the most well-known

Growth in Wiccan Population

• Wiccan population has greatly increased over past 30 years, especially in USA

  • Why might this be the case?

• Wiccans may have traits in common with SBNR, but also meet social functions of religion

• More research needed on Wiccans

  • Did they convert from another religion?

  • How might this change in the upcoming decades?

How Many Non-Religious Individuals?

• Unmatched Count Technique

  • Participants see one of two lists of statements, indicate # that are [not] true of them

  • List 1: Innocuous statements

  • List 2: Innocuous statements + ”I [do not] believe in God”

• Estimates of “true” % individuals who do not believe in God

  • 32% (when “I believe in God” was statement)

  • 20% (when “I do not believe in God” was statement)

  • Much higher than ~11% who explicitly deny believing in God

Why Counting the Non-Religious is Difficult

• Social desirability concerns

  • Even in anonymous surveys

  • Stronger among baby boomers than millennials, women than men

  • Perhaps strongest when identifying as “atheist”

• Mackey et al. (2021)

  • 1,243 non-religious individuals indicated how they identify in private vs. public

  • Private: 75% atheist, 25% something else

  • Public: 49% atheist, 51% something else

Categories of Non-Religious Individuals

• Interviews with 59 non-religious Americans revealed six categories

• Intellectual atheist/agnostic (37.6%)

• Activist atheist/agnostic (23%)

• Seeker-agnostic (7.6%)

• Anti-theist (14.8%)

  • Highest levels of narcissism, dogmatism in follow-up survey

• Non-theist (4.4%)

• Ritual atheist/agnostic (12.5%)

Consequences of Non-Religious Prevalence

• Learning atheists are more prevalent (50% vs. 5%) reduces anti-atheist distrust

  • Self-reported (e.g., “Atheists are honest/trustworthy”)

  • Implicit (associating religious/atheist person with trust/distrust)

• Why?

  • Increased contact (real or imagined)

  • Greater public awareness of ”inconspicuous” group

Perceiving Cultural Change

• Greater prevalence of atheists may also mean cultural change

  • Threatening to some Christians

• Wilkins et al. (2021)

  • Participants read one of two “news articles”

    • Cultural change group: Christians’ cultural influence decreasing

    • Control group: People moving

Perceiving Demographic Changes

• What about actual demographic changes?

• Al-Kire et al. (2021)

  • Participants read one of two “news articles”

    • Demographic shift group: Christians predicted to be minority

    • Control group: Suburban residents predicted to be in minority

• Demographic shift group showed greater…

  • Christian nationalism

  • Perceptions of threat to religious freedom