Major Theories

• Demographic transition theory: fertility decline is caused by industrialization + urbanization

  • Plausible on a millenium scale

  • Incomplete theory

• Classic transition theory with an addition: modernization + shift in values toward individualism and self-fulfillment

  • Doesn’t fit with developing countries

• Wealth flows: fertility decline is caused by the emotional nucleation of the family, triggered by economic + cultural forces

  • Children = net economic beneficiaries of family life

  • Applicable to Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Doesn’t work in East Asia and Western Europe

• Neoclassical microeconomic theory of fertility: 3 proximate determinants of couples fertility choices

  1. Cost of children vs. other goods

  2. Income

  3. Preferences for children vs. other forms of consumption

  • Doesn’t account for environmental + institutional conditions

• Easterlin’s framework: neoclassical microeconomic theory of fertility + sociological variable → supply of children

  1. Supply for children

  2. Demand for children

  3. Costs of fertility regulation

  4. Doesn’t account for institutional conditions

• Ideational theory: timing of fertility transition depends on the diffusion of information + new social norms about birth control

  • Doesn’t apply to Africa

  • Incomplete

Four Errors in Our Thinking

1. Assuming that all transitions have the same cause

• Existence of potentially important influences on fertility in only some times or places

• Diffusion of information and ideas about fertility limitation can influence reproductive behavior in the absence of major structural changes

• There is enormous demographic + social variation across pre-transitional populations

2. Ignoring mortality decline as a precondition of fertility behaviour decline

• Without a mortality decline, a fertility decline is highly unlikely

• Recent theories tend to ignore this pre-condition because of particular findings

3. Assuming that the regulation of fertility is fundamentally different in pre-transitional and post-transitional populations

• Natural fertility: fertility that is socially controlled but not controlled by individuals on a parity-specific basis

• Recognizing the historical continuity of family planning

• Stop stereotyping all pre-transitional populations as mindless puppets of culture

4. Focusing on a decadal time scale

• Decadal time scale = misleading results

• Princeton European Fertility Project: assumed that the effects of economic modernization on fertility would be felt immediately regardless of other conditions

• We need to test our theories on a lengthier or looser scale than the decade

Toward a Better Theory

• Important facts

  1. Fertility transitions occur when conditions are combined

  2. 1st country to undergo a fertility transition experienced changes that encourage fertility limitation and other countries are influenced by this 1st country

  3. The speed of influences travelling through regions varies on many factors

  4. Mortality decline is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition

  5. The number of surviving children varies across pre-transitional populations

  6. Parents use offspring control when the number of children exceeds the family’s capacity to accommodate them

  7. The forms of control available to parents

• New models must be ideational and interactive

• Model for explaining fertility transitions: