Demographic Transition Model (Unit 2)

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) describes population change over time through five distinct stages:

1. Stage 1: High Stationary

• Birth rates and death rates are both high.

• Population growth is slow and fluctuating due to high mortality rates.

• Example: Pre-industrial societies.

• Challenges: Limited access to healthcare and education may perpetuate high mortality rates.

1. Stage 2: Early Expanding

• Death rates begin to decline due to improvements in healthcare and sanitation.

• Birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth.

• Example: Countries like Afghanistan or Yemen.

• Challenges: Rapid population growth may lead to increased strain on resources and services.

1. Stage 3: Late Expanding

• Birth rates start to decrease as a result of contraceptive use and changing social values.

• Death rates remain low, leading to continued population growth but at a slower rate.

• Example: Most countries in Latin America.

• Challenges: Transitioning economies may struggle to provide adequate education and employment opportunities.

1. Stage 4: Low Stationary

• Both birth rates and death rates are low, leading to a stable population.

• Population may slowly increase or remain stable depending on birth rates.

• Example: Developed countries like the USA or Canada.

• Challenges: Aging populations may lead to labor shortages and increased demand for healthcare services.

1. Stage 5: Declining

• Birth rates fall below death rates, resulting in a declining population.

• Factors include aging populations and lower fertility rates.

• Example: Countries like Japan and Germany.

• Challenges: Labor shortages and increased pressure on social services to support a growing elderly population.

Key Concepts:

• Natural Increase Rate: Birth rate minus death rate; significant during stages 2 and 3.

• Cultural and Economic Factors: Influence birth and death rates, including healthcare access, education, and changes in societal norms.

Limitations:

• Not all countries fit neatly into the model; some may skip stages or remain stuck in a stage due to unique factors.