Environmental Security Notes

Environmental Security

Readings

• Reveron and Mahoney Norris: CH 6

• Sandler

• Sims Gallagher, Bordoff and O'Sullivan

Guiding Questions

• How do environmental issues factor into discussions of security?

• Why do states cooperate on some environmental issues and not on others?

• Why was agreement on the Montreal Protocol easier to achieve than on the Kyoto Protocol?

• What issues hinder agreement on a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol?

• How do efforts to combat climate change impact foreign policy?

Economic Security

Reveron and Mahoney Norris 2018

• Peace and security long linked to boosting prosperity.

• Fostered creation of international institutions promoting growth post WW2- Marshall Plan, USAID in the US

  • European Community (now EU) in Europe

  • World Bank, International Monetary Fund in UN

• Fostered creation of international assistance/foreign aid in post Cold War era- Millennium Development Goals from 2000-2015

  • Sustainable Development Goals 2015-2030

• …despite disagreement over what is the best way (i.e., boost free trade, increase foreign aid, promote industrialization, press for good governance, etc.) to promote economic security

• Economic security: “an assured basic income –usually from productive and remunerative work” which ensures basic needs are met (i.e., food, shelter, etc.)

  • This concept emphasizes the importance of stable employment and economic opportunities in ensuring individuals can meet their essential needs, reducing vulnerability to economic shocks.

Environmental Insecurity

Reveron and Mahoney-Norris 2018; Sandler 1997

• Growing consensus that environmental threats impact security

  • Environmental security is now recognized as a critical component of national and international stability, influencing policy and strategic planning.

• Can exacerbate other security issues- Ozone depletion: public health concerns

  • Climate change: flooding, food supplies threatened, displaced populations, etc.

• Can trigger greater competition over scarce resources

  • Scarcity of resources like water, arable land, and minerals due to environmental degradation can lead to conflicts between communities and nations.

• Climate change most likely to be felt by developing countries

  • Developing nations often lack the infrastructure and resources to adapt to climate change impacts, making them disproportionately vulnerable.

• Can threaten foreign policy goals of developed states

  • Environmental issues can affect diplomatic relations and cooperation on other global challenges.

• Can undermine policies to prevent failed states

  • Environmental degradation can exacerbate poverty and instability, increasing the risk of state failure.

• Resolving these problems requires international cooperation

  • Collective action is essential to address transboundary environmental issues effectively.

• Some issues foster cooperation while others languish

Climate Change Comparing International Responses

Ozone Depletion

• Montreal Protocol—- 1987: Signed by 22 states

  • Designed to reduce CFCs by 50% by 1998

  • Causal link identified

  • Evidence not contested
    -The Montreal Protocol stands as a successful example of international environmental cooperation, demonstrating the feasibility of addressing global environmental challenges with strong scientific consensus and decisive action.

Kyoto Protocol

• Initiated in 1997; ratified in 2005

• Set deadlines for industrial countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions

• Initial protocol ran out in 2012

• Questions over Paris Agreement- Are voluntary limits enough?

  • Can it work without firm commitment of US?

  • Can it work if developing economies are not actively involved?
    -The success of the Paris Agreement hinges on the active participation of all major economies, including developing nations, and the establishment of robust enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance and accountability.

Explaining Environment Cooperation

Sandler 1997

• Some problems more “easily solved” than others

• Uses game theory to explain incentives to cooperate

• Environment is a public good.- Non-rival and non-excludable

  • A public good means that one person’s consumption of the good does not reduce its availability to others (non-rival), and it is impossible to prevent anyone from consuming the good (non-excludable).

• Decisions are strategic and interactive.

• Outcome a function of your decisions AND decisions of others

• Structure of negotiations can impede cooperation even when it is in both parties’ interests

• Prisoners Dilemma

  • The Prisoner's Dilemma illustrates how rational individuals might not cooperate, even when it is in their best interest to do so.

Overcoming The Prisoners’ Dilemma

• Played once, the dominant strategy is to defect

• BUT, when the structure of the game changes, dominant strategies can change

• When the game is iterated (i.e., repeated), cooperation possible…

• Repeated interaction can shape behavior (suggests role for norms/identity)

• Reputation matters if reciprocity is ensured

• Enforcement can change behavior (suggests role for international institutions)

• Cooperation becomes self enforcing

• …BUT cooperation more difficult to achieve as number of actors increases

• Enforcement becomes problematic

• Varying preferences can thwart cooperation

  • Differing priorities and values among nations can significantly hinder the achievement of common environmental goals, making consensus and coordinated action more challenging.

Facilitating Montreal…

Sandler 1997

• Scientific certainty created a Montreal consensus on ozone depletion which has eluded debate on climate change

• Scientists agree climate change is occurring…- Not on its effects

• Both problems are “public bads”, BUT- GHGs produced from larger range of activities than CFCs.

  • Curbing GHGs is more costly than curbing CFCs.

  • CFCs easily substitutable
    -The availability of substitutes for harmful substances facilitates easier and more effective environmental regulation, as industries can transition without significant economic disruption.

Roadblocks For Kyoto…

Sandler 1997

• States do not share the same preferences on climate change

  • Divergent national interests and priorities regarding climate change can impede the development and implementation of effective international agreements and policies.

• Some states may benefit from a warmer climate

• Immediate costs and delayed benefits

• States will lose 2% or more of GDP

• Uncertainty over scale of devastation creates barriers

• Can impact formation/effectiveness of international institutional responses

• Nonparticipants could not wreck the Montreal Protocol…

• They can under Kyoto

• Hegemon willing to take a leadership role under Montreal

  • The presence of a dominant global leader willing to invest resources and exert influence can significantly enhance the effectiveness of international environmental agreements.

• Free-riding undercuts beneficial effects of individual state cutbacks

• Lack of enforcement mechanisms do not make curbs self enforcing

  • Without robust enforcement mechanisms, environmental agreements may lack credibility and effectiveness, as nations may be tempted to prioritize short-term economic gains over long-term environmental sustainability.

• States have incentives to restrict GHG emissions of others while not limiting their own

• Developed vs. developing world

  • Disparities in economic development and historical contributions to environmental problems create tensions between developed and developing nations, complicating efforts to achieve equitable and effective international environmental agreements.

The Paris Agreement

BBC News 2016

• Commits signatories to:- Keep temperature increase below 2˚ C

  • Limit emissions to “absorbable amount” between 2050 - 2100

  • Scale up approach every five years

  • Developed states should assist developing states

• Most nations signed onto the agreement

• US announced intention to leave under Trump

• US announced intention to return under Biden

• Agreement is part binding and part voluntary

• Politically needed for agreement

• Will it solve climate change?

• Admittedly very vague

• Enforcement mechanisms unclear

• Accord is not enough if it is the ONLY step

• But if it is just the FIRST step…

• Progress assessed in 2018 and every five years after

  • Regular assessments of progress under the Paris Agreement are essential to ensure that nations are on track to meet their emission reduction targets and to identify areas where greater effort is needed.

Evaluating the Paris Agreement

Sims Gallagher 2022

• Paris Agreement useful in terms of starting the international conversation, but not enough to combat worst case scenarios associated with climate change

• States face few consequences for missing carbon reduction targets- That is, the agreement lacks enforcement mechanisms

• Public and private financing for transition to clean energy is not enough

  • Increased financial investments from both public and private sectors are crucial to accelerate the transition to clean energy and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

• Emerging economies need more resources to transition economies

• Emerging economies still depend on export led industrialization- Manufacturing intensive strategy relies on fossil fuels

• Suggests increased interdependence between developed + developing economies

• And indicates a need to rethink current approaches to combat climate change

  • A reevaluation of current strategies to combat climate change is necessary to address the complex interplay between economic development, energy consumption, and environmental sustainability, particularly in the context of increasing global interdependence.

Crafting a New Development Model

Sims Gallagher 2022

• Developed countries used industrialization to boost economies and are responsible for most of emissions promoting climate change

• Paris Agreement commits signatories to reduce carbon emissions

• Developed economies have funds to do this

• Developing economies lack these resources

• “Grow [economy] first and clean up later” strategy not viable

  • The traditional approach of prioritizing economic growth at the expense of environmental protection is no longer sustainable, necessitating a shift towards environmentally conscious development strategies.

• Focusing only on emissions of developed economies ignores the fact that without a strategy to curb emissions in developing economies, climate change will worsen

• Many developing states committed to Paris Agreement…

• But cannot expect developing economies to forego development to combat climate change

• Industrialized countries must assist developing economies with funding and technology to transition to clean energy

• Yet, assistance has not been completely forthcoming…

• Multilateral institutions have not offered enough to prioritize transition to low carbon energy

• Public/private investors are promoting profit/geostrategic ends rather than carbon reduction

• …leaving developing countries focused on short term efforts to promote growth rather than combat climate change

• Reducing emissions possible if international community takes steps NOW

• International diplomacy alone is not enough

• MUST commit technological and financial resources

• States must incentivize public/private financing to boost clean energy transition

• Governments in developed economies must regulate investment to promote green energy

• Governments in developing economies must reform state enterprises to reduce reliance on fossil fuels

• Governments should implement a carbon tax to incentivize reducing carbon emissions

• New international fund to promote transition to clean energy should be created

• Would incentivize a “race to the top” on delivering sustainable development

• Crafting a “low carbon development model” can combat climate change AND allow for development

  • The creation of a "low-carbon development model" offers a pathway to reconcile economic progress with environmental stewardship, demonstrating that nations can pursue sustainable development while effectively addressing climate change.

Geopolitics Of Climate Change

Bordoff and O’Sullivan 2022

• States not doing enough to combat rising carbon levels despite a growing sense of urgency to promote a shift to clean energy more quickly

• Yet, states still remain slow to act, why?

• People all over the planet are dealing with extreme weather events, rising energy costs, and political leaders seeking to promote “energy independence”

• Suggests a large market for a transition to clean energy

• BUT, this ignores “geopolitics of oil and gas” that complicate transition to clean energy

  • The influence of oil and gas geopolitics significantly complicates the transition to clean energy, as nations with vested interests in fossil fuels may resist or delay the shift to renewable energy sources.

• Transition will impact “sources of power, the process of globalization, relations among the great powers, and the ongoing economic convergence of developed countries and developing ones”

• Countries MUST accelerate transition BUT must be aware of challenges

• Oil/natural gas strategic commodities since World War 1

• States with oil/gas resources have used this to boost their international leverage

• Transition to clean energy will not remove all petrostate leverage…

• Net-zero emissions not mean the end of fossil fuels

• “Bumpy” clean energy transition will keep oil/gas prices volatile

• Will consolidate oil/gas trade into fewer hands

• Empowers states like Russia, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia

  • The transition to clean energy will not eliminate the strategic importance of oil and gas, and price volatility in these markets will persist, potentially empowering nations with significant reserves.

Bordoff and O’Sullivan 2022

• States incentivizing innovation and access to cheap capital will dominate clean energy

• Can set global standards on clean energy others must adhere to

  • Nations that foster innovation and provide access to affordable capital in the clean energy sector can establish global standards that others must follow to remain competitive.

• Can use copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, and rare earths resources for leverage

• Can use early adoption to produce technological parts quickly and cheaply

• Can produce and export low carbon fuels

• Will have important ramifications for great power politics…

• May pit US and China against each other

• May stymie international cooperation on climate change

• US + EU may be partners on some issues and competitors on others

• Russia may become increasingly dependent on China

• And important ramifications for developing countries which would benefit from a decarbonized world in the long run…

• But in the short run, they may be dependent on aid from developed countries and fossil fuels to boost development

  • Developing countries may find themselves reliant on aid from developed nations and fossil fuels to fuel their development in the short term, despite the long-term benefits of a decarbonized global economy.

Advising The Transition

Bordoff and O’Sullivan 2022

• Transition will be bumpy, but will reduce most of today’s energy risks

• But when geopolitics clash with environmental policy, the former will win

• Those seeking to promote the transition to clean energy should:-

  • Boost energy security and be prepared for energy volatility

  • Enhancing energy security and preparing for fluctuations in energy markets are essential strategies for promoting the transition to clean energy.

  • Do not scrap nuclear power or oil reserves yet

  • Promote incentives that boost power reliability during peak periods

  • Use tax adjustments to help low income customers

  • Diversify energy access to reduce supply chain risks

  • Do not be beholden to one or two suppliers

  • Promote re-training + investment in areas dependent on fossil fuels

Conclusions

Reveron and Mahoney Norris 2018

• Environmental challenges impact both developed AND developing states

  • Environmental challenges affect both developed and developing nations, necessitating international cooperation to address shared vulnerabilities and promote sustainable solutions.

• That is, “climate stress knows no boundary”

• But developing states often lack resources to respond to these stresses

  • Developing nations often lack the necessary resources to effectively respond to environmental challenges, exacerbating their vulnerability to climate stress and other environmental risks.

• Stresses which can exacerbate other tensions and promote conflict

• Developed states seeking to boost state capacity in developing regions, must take these environmental factors into account, as