Topic 8 - Electoral Systems

A] First Past-the-Post:

- Candidates compete in single-member districts.

- The candidate with the most votes wins.

- Often leads to a two-party system and favors larger parties.

B] Proportional Representation:

- Seats in parliament correspond to the percentage of votes received.

- Allows for smaller parties to gain representation.

- Various methods exist, like party lists or Single Transferable Vote.

C] Second Ballot:

- Also known as Runoff Voting.

- If no candidate gains a majority in the first round, a second round between the top two candidates determines the winner.

- Ensures a majority winner.

D] Mixed Systems:

- Combines elements of different systems.

- Could involve a mix of proportional representation and first past-the-post.

- Aims to balance regional representation and party proportionality.

Electoral systems vary significantly across democracies:

1. Diverse Systems: Different countries employ various electoral systems.

2. Varying Rules: Rules regarding voting and seat allocation differ widely among nations.

3. Outcome Differences: Applying different formulas to the same vote distribution can yield distinct outcomes in terms of party representation. The same voter intent might lead to varying elected members based on the electoral system used.

Certainly, electoral systems can be categorized based on:

A] Electoral Formula:

- Determines how votes are counted to declare winners or allocate seats.

- Examples include First Past-the-Post, Proportional Representation, and Ranked Choice Voting.

B] District Magnitude:

- Refers to the number of seats allocated per district.

- Small magnitudes typically result in fewer representatives per district, while larger magnitudes lead to more.

C] Ballot Structure:

- Defines how voters express their choices.

- It includes methods like marking a single candidate, ranking preferences, or selecting parties rather than individuals.

Three basic electoral formulae:

A] Plurality:

- A candidate wins by getting more votes than any individual opponent.

- Victory doesn't require obtaining over 50% of the votes.

- Often leads to a winner with the most votes but not necessarily a majority.

B] Majority:

- A candidate wins by securing more than 50% of the votes cast.

- Ensures that the elected candidate has the support of the majority of voters.

C] Proportionality:

- Political parties gain representation in the Legislature in close proportion to the votes they receive.

- Aims to reflect the diversity of voter preferences by allocating seats based on the share of the popular vote each party receives.

Plurality systems are often referred to as "first-past-the-post."

1. Election Criteria: In a plurality system, a candidate only needs more votes than any individual opponent to secure victory, not necessarily a majority.

2. Application: Plurality rules are commonly used in single-member constituencies but can also be seen in presidential contests and, if structured accordingly, in multi-member constituencies.

Absolutely, in a first past-the-post system:

1. Principle of Winning: The candidate with the highest number of votes in a single-member constituency wins, even if they haven't secured a majority of votes (more than 50%).

2. Hypothetical Scenario: Let's consider the votes in a constituency:

- Party A: 5,000 votes

- Party B: 4,000 votes

- Party C: 3,000 votes

- Party D: 2,000 votes

In this scenario, the candidate from Party A, with 5,000 votes, would win the election, despite not obtaining a majority of the votes. This winner is determined by having the most votes among all candidates, following the principle of plurality.

Absolutely, while the first past-the-post system is straightforward, criticisms have arisen due to its tendency to produce winners without a majority of votes.

1. Issue of Plurality vs. Majority: Critics highlight that winners might not represent the majority will of the electorate, as they can secure victory with a plurality (the most votes, not necessarily more than 50%).

2. Reforms for Majority Rule: Reforms aim to ensure majority winners in all cases, prioritizing the satisfaction of the electorate's will.

3. Challenges in Obtaining Majority: Using first past-the-post alone might not always guarantee a majority winner in a single round of voting.

4. Adopting Second Ballot: Some countries prioritize having a majority winner over simplicity. Therefore, they employ a second ballot or runoff elections to ascertain a candidate who secures more than 50% of the votes, ensuring a clearer majority outcome.

The need for a majority without specific mechanisms could lead to scenarios of no clear winner or a series of inconclusive elections.

1. Challenge of No Winner: In a single-round election, the requirement for a majority might result in no candidate securing more than 50% of the votes, causing a deadlock or no winner at all.

2. Solution: Second Ballot or Runoff: To resolve this, a second ballot is conducted where only the top two candidates, based on the first round's results, proceed. Other candidates are eliminated.

3. Emergence of Majority Winner: The final round, involving the top two candidates, ensures that the eventual winner obtains more than 50% of the votes, thereby achieving a majority outcome. This runoff process helps ensure a decisive result with a clear majority.

Proportional representation, two major types stand out: the party list system and the single transferable vote.

1. Party List System:

- Objective: This system focuses on allocating seats in the Legislature to political parties in proportion to the votes they receive.

- Quota Determination: The total votes cast are divided by the total number of seats available, resulting in a quota. This quota guides the allocation of seats to each party based on the proportion of votes they received.

In the party list system of proportional representation, there are variations in seat allocation:

Allocation Methods:

1. Subtraction-Based Systems (Largest Remainder):

- These systems allocate seats based on remainders after division.

- Example methods: Hare, Droop, Imperiali quotas.

2. Division-Based Systems (Highest Average):

- Use divisors to allocate seats.

- Common methods: d'Hondt, modified Sainte-Laguë.

Hare Method Example:

- Calculation: In an election with 238,530 total votes and 53 seats to allocate, the quota (votes/seats) was 4,500.

- Allocation: Dividing party votes by the quota, the allocations were determined. For instance:

- PPP: 24 seats with 1,332 remainder

- PNC: 21 seats with 2,157 remainder

- UF: 6 seats with 2,612 remainder

Allocation of Remaining Seats:

- Largest Remainders: Under the Hare system, parties with the largest remainders get additional seats.

- Final Allocation: As per this rule, the remaining 2 seats were allocated, one each to UF and PNC based on their remaining votes, resulting in PNC securing 22 seats and UF obtaining 7 seats in total.

Single Transferable Vote (STV) operates through preferential voting, allowing voters to rank candidates according to their preferences.

1. Preferential Voting: Voters rank candidates based on their preferences, marking them in order.

2. Usage in Multi-Member Constituencies: STV is applied in districts electing more than one Member of Parliament (M.P.).

3. Focus on Candidates, not Parties: Unlike the party list system, voters in STV vote for individual candidates, not parties. For example, this system is utilized in the Republic of Ireland.

Vote Counting in STV:

- Votes are initially tallied based on first preferences to determine:

- Total Votes Cast: Reveals the overall number of votes.

- Calculation of Quota: Establishes the quota required for a candidate to secure a seat in each constituency.

Droop formula determines the quota required for a candidate to be elected using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system.

The Droop Formula:

The formula is as follows:

Total Valid Votes / (Total # of Seats) 1 =(x) + 1 =Droop Quota

Explanation:

1. Calculation of x:

-Total Valid Votes / (Total # of Seats) 1 =(x) + 1 =Droop Quota

- This step determines the initial quotient.

2. Droop Quota Calculation:

- To get the Droop quota, the value of x is calculated and then incremented by 1.

- The result represents the number of votes a candidate needs to attain in order to secure a seat.

The Droop quota serves as the benchmark; candidates reaching this quota through preferences are elected. This formula helps determine the threshold for candidates to gain representation in multi-member constituencies using the Single Transferable Vote system.

In a three-member constituency using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system:

Calculation of Quota:

1. Total Valid Votes: 18,000

2. Total Seats (3 seats) + 1: 4 (3 + 1)

3. Quota Calculation: 18,000/4 = 4,500 votes

4. Droop Quota: 4,501 votes (4,500 + 1)

Initial Results based on First Preferences:

- Party A: 6,501 votes

- Party B: 4,201 votes

- Party C: 3,798 votes

- Party D: 3,500 votes

Determining Candidates Elected:

1. Election of the First Candidate:

- Party A has more than the required 4,501 votes.

- Therefore, a candidate from Party A is elected with the first preference votes.

2. Utilizing Second Preference Votes:

- As the quota is met by Party A's candidate, their surplus votes and second preferences will help determine the winners of the remaining seats.

- Second preferences will be considered for determining the allocation of the remaining two seats among Parties B, C, and D.

The Single Transferable Vote (STV) system offers voters significant freedom in expressing preferences between parties based on their assessment of individual candidates.

1. Freedom of Choice: Voters have the liberty to prioritize candidates regardless of party lines, focusing on the quality and competence of individual candidates.

2. Straight Party Preference: Conversely, many voters may opt to follow a straight party line when it comes to preferences, indicating their preference for all candidates from a particular party.

3. Efficient Use of Votes: In STV, no vote is wasted. Surplus votes from elected candidates are redistributed based on lower preferences if no one is initially elected with a higher preference.

- If a candidate isn't elected with the first preference votes, their surplus or unneeded votes are transferred to the next preference on the ballot.

- This process continues until candidates secure the required quota, ensuring that every vote contributes to the final result, even if not initially for the first preference.

The concept of hybrid or mixed electoral systems involves combining different electoral methods into a single system.

1. Hybrid Systems Overview:

- These systems integrate various electoral methodologies into one coherent framework, often blending aspects of proportional representation and majoritarian systems.

2. Example - Wooding Constitution Commission Proposal:

- In Trinidad and Tobago's 1974 Report, the Wooding Constitution Commission suggested a hybrid system for a single House with 72 members.

- It proposed electing 36 members through first past-the-post in geographical constituencies and another 36 members through party lists based on proportional representation.

3. Implementation in Trinidad and Tobago:

- This mixed system was implemented in local government elections in Trinidad and Tobago starting from 2013.

- The hybrid model aims to balance geographical representation with proportional representation, offering a blend of direct representation and proportionality in the legislative body.