Chapter 6: The Politics of Public Opinion - Notes

6.1 The Nature of Public Opinion

• Public Opinion:

  • Definition: A collection of popular views about something (person, event, idea).

  • Example: Polling Americans on presidential handling of the economy or intervention in international affairs.

  • Analysis: Used by politicians to inform legislative votes, campaign messages, and propaganda.

• Beliefs and Attitudes:

  • Beliefs: Closely held ideas supporting values and expectations (e.g., equality, liberty).

  • Attitudes: Preferences based on life experiences and values (e.g., skepticism towards authority due to personal experience with racism).

  • Norms: Accepted ideas about what should happen in society or government.

• Political Socialization:

  • Definition: The process of learning about society, community, and political behavior.

  • Begins at a young age (e.g., watching a parent vote).

  • School: Introduction to basic political information (Pledge of Allegiance, Founding Fathers, Constitution, political parties, branches of government, economic system).

• Political Ideology:

  • Definition: Attitudes and beliefs that shape opinions on political theory and policy.

  • Rooted in individual identity.

  • Can change due to new circumstances or information, but underlying beliefs are generally stable.

  • Examples: Family members of 9/11 victims becoming more Republican; young adults at 1960s-70s protests becoming more politically active.

• Ideological Shifts:

  • Economic Catastrophes: Great Depression leading to a shift from Republican to Democratic control.

  • Congressional Shifts: Republican takeover in 1994 after over 40 years of Democratic control.

• Political Polarization:

  • Definition: Increasingly opposing views between citizens (noticed by polling agencies).

  • Pew Research Study: Over 25 years, Republicans and Democrats answer value questions very differently.

  • Example: Differing views on government regulation.

  • Impact of 9/11: Increased trust in government, willingness to limit liberties for certain groups, intensified partisanship.

• Socialization Agents:

  • Definition: Sources of political information that help citizens understand and act in their political system.

  • Examples: Family, school, social groups (religious institutions, friends), media.

  • Other countries: Nationalistic education in China.

• Diffuse Support:

  • Definition: Support characterized by stability, acceptance of government legitimacy, and a common goal of preserving the system.

  • Helped by socialization agents.

• Family Influence:

  • Early exposure to politics (parental conversations, voting habits).

  • Children often adopt parents' political beliefs.

  • Children of politically independent parents are also likely to become independent.

• School Influence:

  • Lessons: Idealized views of explorers, presidents, victories, and symbols (e.g., George Washington's contributions).

  • Personalizing Government: Relating leaders to children (e.g. Abraham Lincoln's childhood).

  • Respect for Government: Following laws, obeying authorities.

  • Higher Education: Detailed information on U.S. history, economic system, government workings (legislative process, checks and balances, policymaking).

  • Civic volunteerism requirements.

• Influence Outside Home and School:

  • Religious Institutions: Teaching on matters that translate into political views (abortion, death penalty, military involvement).

  • Friends and Peers: Acceptance of information due to trust, influence via social media.

• Media Influence:

  • Gatekeepers of information, creating reality through selection.

  • Framing: Affecting perception through presentation (e.g., demonstrations framed as riots vs. protests).

  • Covert Content: Political information presented as neutral (e.g., biased climate change coverage).

  • Overt Content: Openly ideological viewpoints (e.g., political commentators, publications).

• Socialization and Ideology:

  • Ideologies depend on attitudes, beliefs, and prioritization of each.

  • Example: Differing opinions on free college education or government-funded health insurance.

  • Guns vs. Butter Debate: Deciding to spend money on the military or on social programs.

• Ideologies and the Ideological Spectrum:

  • Visual comparison of ideologies based on priorities (liberal on left, conservative on right).

  • Right side: Government control over personal freedoms (fascism, authoritarianism, conservatism).

  • Left side: Equality (communism, socialism, liberalism).

  • Moderate ideologies balance extremes.

• Political Ideologies Explained:

  • Fascism: Total control by the ruling party.

  • Authoritarianism: Leaders control politics, military, government, and economy.

  • Traditional Conservatism: Authority of monarchy and church.

  • Modern Conservatism: Elected government, individual liberties, smaller government.

  • Classical Liberalism: Individual liberties and rights, free will, limited government.

  • Modern Liberalism: Equality, government intervention for equality.

  • Socialism: Government promotes social and economic equality, expanded services and public programs.

  • Communism: Common ownership of property, government control to prevent worker exploitation.

• Economic Variations:

  • Command Economy: Government controlled economy (Soviet Russia).

  • Laissez-faire Economy: Limited government intervention (pre-1929 U.S.).

  • Libertarianism: Individual rights, limited government, freedom in private life and economic decisions.

  • The point where a person's ideology falls on the spectrum gives some insight into opinions.

6.2 How Is Public Opinion Measured?

• Polling History: Opion polls started in 1824 asking voters as they left. Informal polls called straw polls informally collect opinions of a non-random population or group.

• Modern Polling:

  • Sophisticated, designed to probe thoughts, wants, and values.

  • Information relayed to politicians and media, analyzed by statisticians and social scientists.

• Taking a Poll:

  • Political polling is a science.

  • Polling errors can lead to incorrect predictions.

  • Example: Literary Digest's 1936 poll predicting Alf Landon's victory.

  • Example: Thomas Dewey losing 1948 election to Harry Truman, despite polls showing Dewey far ahead

• Scientific Polling Methods:

  • Employ statisticians and methodologists.

  • Identify desired population.

  • Build a random and representative sample.

  • Prevent regional bias.

  • Survey a set number of citizens.

  • Account for margin of error.

• Sample Types:

  • Random Sample: Each person has an equal chance of being chosen.

  • Representative Sample: Demographic distribution similar to overall population (e.g., gender).

• Sample Size:

  • Varies based on population size and desired accuracy.

  • Larger sample = more accuracy but increasing the number of respondents will increase the accuracy of the poll, but once the poll has enough respondents to be representative, increases in accuracy become minor and are not cost-effective.

• Margin of Error:

  • States how far poll results may be from the actual opinion of the total population.

  • Lower margin of error = more predictive poll.

• Evaluating Polls:

  • Look for Numbers: Margin of error, polling dates, number of respondents, population sampled.

  • Consider: Timing, clarity and bias of questions, sample size, margin of error.

• Technology and Polling:

  • Exit polls, focus groups, and some public opinion polls still use in person communication.

  • News networks use face-to-face techniques to conduct exit polls on Election Day.

  • Polls occur over the phone or through the Internet.

  • Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and robo-polls.

• Random-Digit-Dialing (RDD):
  

  *Pollsters using RDD allows them to include respondents who may have unlisted and cellular numbers.

• Challenges in Telephone Polling:

  • Computer dials random or pre-programmed numbers

  • A prerecorded electronic voice administers the survey

  • A growing number of citizens use cell phones.

  • Millennials and Gen Zs are likely to text than to answer an unknown call.

  • Reach out to potential respondents using email and social media.

  • Web surveys must be designed to run on a varied number of browsers and handheld devices.

• Problems in Polling: Polls may not produce accurate results because of timing and human nature.

  • Timing: Citizen might change his or her mind, lie, or choose not to vote at all.

  • 
    

    Free of Framing: Questions should not be worded to lead respondents to a particular answer.

  • Leading Questions: Lead respondents to select a predetermined answer.

  • Push Polls: Their questions are written to guarantee a specific outcome, perhaps to help a candidate get press coverage or gain momentum.

  • Lack of Knowledge: Respondents may not know that much about the polling topic but are unwilling to say, “I don’t know.”

  • Social Pressure: Respondants may feel social pressure to answer questions in accordance with the norms of their area or peers.

• Push Polls: Political campaign information presented as polls.

6.3 What Does the Public Think?

• Factors Affecting Public Opinion:

  • Ideological shifts are likely to occur if a voter’s ideology is only weakly supported by beliefs.

  • Conflicting opinions, limited knowledge, age, and separation from family.

• Forming an Opinion:

  • Heuristics: Shortcuts for decision making (e.g., political party membership).

  • Research: Learning background information before deciding.

• Heuristics Examples:

  • Gender: Assuming female candidates understand social issues relevant to women.

  • Socio-Economic Status: Candidates with business backgrounds preferred by business owners.

  • Interest-Group Affiliation: Endorsements (e.g., National Organization of Women).

• Demographic Effects:

  • Age, gender, race, socio-economic status shape opinions through shared experiences.

  • 2012 Election: Women favored Obama, men favored Romney; younger voters favored Obama, older voters favored Romney; African Americans and Hispanics favored Obama.

  • 2016 Election: Similar demographic effects.

• State Political Culture:

  • Effect on ideology and opinion.

  • Example: Gun ownership opinions vary (California vs. Texas).

• Workplace Influence:

  • Opinions about policies, social issues, and political leaders.

  • Shared experiences, professional organizations, unions.

• Political Opinion Leaders:

  • Short-term cues that help voters pay closer attention to a political debate and make decisions about it.

  • Examples: Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, Tom Brokaw, 60 Minutes.

  • The information must be credible and honest.

• Opinions About Politics and Policies:

  • Traditional two-party system but frustration with it.

  • Changes in party allegiance.

  • Politics is about dividing scarce resources fairly and balancing liberties and rights.

• Economic Policy Opinions:

  • 26% of citizens surveyed thought the U.S. economy was in excellent or good condition.

• * United public in wanting fiscal responsibility without raising taxes.

  • Disagreement on which programs to cut.

• Social Policy Opinions:

  • Government attempts to regulate public behavior for a better society.

  • Abortion: Divide between protecting rights of unborn vs. women's bodily autonomy.

  • Affordable Care Act: Controversy over government involvement in health care.
    

    Mandate that individuals purchase health insurance

  • Same-Sex Marriage: Shift in public opinion but continued debate over religious beliefs.

  • Gun Ownership: Balancing rights and liberties.

• Public Opinion and Political Institutions:

  • Measured in public approval ratings.

  • Congressional and executive branches scrutinized daily.

  • Supreme Court approval polls after major opinions.

• Presidential Approval Ratings:

  • Presidents are often blamed for decisions of their administrations and party.

  • Expected to slowly decline over time, affected by specific events (wars, economic downturns, scandals).

  • Events may spike ratings but are short-lived.

  • George W. Bush’s public approval rating jumped from 51 percent on September 10, 2001, to 86 percent by September 15 following the 9/11 attacks

• Congressional Approval Ratings:

  • Lower approval ratings than presidents.

  • Affected by domestic events, party politics.

• Supreme Court Approval Ratings:

  • Non-elected, non-political positions give the appearance of integrity and help the Supreme Court earn higher public approval ratings than presidents and Congress..

  • Generally less visible, more stable but less frequent polling results.

  • Impacted by highly visible cases (Bush v. Gore, ACA rulings, same-sex marriage).

  • Court's ratings can be affected by controversial decisions
    

    *James Stimson's aggregated measure of public mood combines public opinion, presidential public approval, and a variety of governmental measures of activity. All data are coded by policy topic, so you can look for trends in a policy topic of interest to you to see whether government attention tracks with public opinion.

6.4 The Effects of Public Opinion

• Public Opinion and Elections: Elections are the events on which opinion polls have the greatest measured effect. Polls help voters research information

• Can affect how much money candidates receive in campaign donations.- Bandwagon Effect: Media pays more attention to candidates who poll well.

  • Bill Clinton was nicknamed the “Comeback Kid” in 1992, after he placed second in the New Hampshire primary despite accusations of adultery with Gennifer Flowers.

  • Polling: Is at the heart of horserace coverage.

• Horserace Coverage: the media calls out every candidate’s move throughout the presidential campaign.- Exit Polls: Last election polls conducted, can deter voters if they believe election is decided.

  • Early information about which candidate is ahead.

• Public Opinion and Government:

• Members of the three branches of government are aware of public opinion, do politicians use them to guide decisions?- Studies have not clearly shown whether the branches of government consistently act on them.

  • Individual citizens do not take the time to become fully informed about all aspects of politics, yet their collective behavior and the opinions they hold as a group make sense.

  • Politicians recognize public opinion may not always be the right choice.

  • Savvy politicians recognize shifts.
    

    Presidents and justices may make judgements for the long term.

  • Public opinion affects cases accepted by the justices.

• The Presidential Approval The Presidential approval is most effective when :President has a mandate, bully pulpit approach. The term “bully pulpit” was coined by President Theodore Roosevelt, who believed the presidency commanded the attention of the media and could be used to appeal directly to the people. This is especially true if the president has a mandate, which is more than half the popular vote. This action of Presidents is usually during natural emergencies.
  

  *Presidents may also use their popularity to ask the people to act.

• When public opinion shifts, fewer senators win reelection. Thus, when the public as a whole becomes more or less liberal, new senators are elected. Rather than the senators shifting their policy preferences and voting differently, it is