The Politics of Public Opinion - Vocabulary Flashcards
6.1 The Nature of Public Opinion
Public opinion is basically what a lot of people think about something at a certain time (like a person, event, or new idea). We find this out by asking people questions and then use it to help politicians make choices or for news reports.
Why we care about what people think:
Politicians wanna know what's up so they can vote smart and sound good in campaigns.
Campaign managers need to guess how folks will vote.
News channels wanna tell stories about what Americans are thinking.
Where opinions come from:
Beliefs: These are your core ideas about life and politics (like freedom, fairness, privacy). You pick these up from growing up here, or if you came from somewhere else, those ideas might stick too.
Attitudes: These are your preferences based on what you've lived through and what you value.
Over time, beliefs and attitudes become norms (like, what's generally cool in society or government).
Your attitudes and beliefs are the building blocks of public opinion.
Political socialization (how you learn about politics):
Starts super early! Like, seeing your parents vote or hearing big speeches (check out Figure 6.2).
School is huge: you learn about the Constitution, how government works, and political parties.
By the time you finish school, you usually have enough info to form your own political thoughts.
This learning shapes your ideology, which tends to stay put but can change if something major happens (like 9/11 or a big economic mess).
Ideology and polarization:
An ideology is a bunch of attitudes and beliefs that shape your political views and what policies you like.
Polarization is when Republicans and Democrats stop agreeing on things, especially about what the government should do.
Some history (quick version):
1920s: Republicans ran Congress. Then the Great Depression hit, and lots of people switched to Democrats (around 1932).
1994: Republicans took over both the House and Senate.
Lately: People's beliefs are way more divided.
Pew Research did studies and found parties disagree more on government's role. For example:
1987: Almost equal numbers of Democrats (58%) and Republicans (60%) thought the government controlled too much.
2012: Only 47% of Democrats still thought that, but 77% of Republicans did. Big difference!
2019: The gap got even wider (around 39% different on many value questions).
Post-9/11: People trusted the government more and were okay with limiting some freedoms, but it's a debate if those changes are permanent.
Diffuse support vs. partisan polarization:
Diffuse support means people generally trust and accept the government, even when things are rough.
We need those "socialization agents" (like family, school) to keep this trust going.
Socialization agents (where you get political info):
Family and school are the main ones.
Other places: religious groups, friends, and the media.
Side note: In China, schools teach nationalism to make everyone feel united, different from our "diffuse support" idea.
Socialization outside home and school:
Religion: Lots of Americans go to religious services (64%). Leaders here can shape views on big life stuff and issues like abortion or foreign policy.
Friends and peers: Your crew can totally sway your opinions. Social media too, but be careful, it can be biased if you only follow people who think like you.
Media framing: How a story is told can change how you see it (e.g., negative news about a politician makes them look bad).
Covert vs. overt political content:
Covert: Info that seems neutral but secretly favors one side (like, only picking certain sources or people to interview).
Overt: Straight-up political content (like talk radio shows that are clearly on one side).
Socialization and ideology:
Your attitudes and beliefs come together to form your personal ideology, which decides what's most important to you.
Simple questions show your values (like, more money for guns or for social programs?).
Education system and socialization content:
Early school shows you the super positive side of history (like George Washington) and often skips the tough parts (like slavery).
Civics and economics lessons get more detailed as you get older.
Learning continues in college through things like activism.
Media's changing role in socialization:
The internet and social media mean traditional news doesn't control info as much anymore.
How the media frames things (like protests in Ferguson or Baltimore) changes how people see events.
Ideologies and the ideological spectrum:
Think of it like a line: liberal (left) vs. conservative (right), with moderates in the middle.
Right-wing people usually like control and traditional values; they often want less government. (conservatism).
Left-wing people usually like equality and think the government should step in to help (liberalism, socialism).
Extremes: On the far ends, you have fascism (total control by one party) and communism (government owns everything).
Libertarianism is almost the opposite of communism, focusing on individual rights and super tiny government.
The spectrum also factors in economic stuff (like government-run vs. free market).
How ideology links to policy:
Bills like the Raise the Wage Act or the Patriot Act show how different values turn into different policy ideas.
What people think about an issue can totally depend on their ideology, party, or who they are (demographics).
Typology and self-discovery tools:
There's a Pew quiz to help you figure out where you fit on the ideological spectrum. Link: https://www.openstax.org/l/29typologyquiz
Key takeaways:
What people think is shaped by their beliefs, attitudes, norms, and how they learned about politics.
The sources of political info (socialization agents) help keep trust in government, but also can make things biased.
Your ideology helps you understand political issues and policies.
6.2 How Is Public Opinion Measured?
How polling got started:
The first official poll was way back in 1824 (leaflets at voting spots).
Back then, there were also straw polls (informal polls, not super reliable) and casual polls in newspapers or on social media.
Modern public opinion polling has been around for about 80 years and is much smarter now, really digging into what people believe and want.
Taking a poll: how it works
First, figure out who you want to ask (like, everyone in the U.S. or just people in one state).
Then, create a sample (a smaller group) that's both random and represents the bigger group.
Sometimes, they only interview likely voters for election questions.
Typical sample sizes:
National polls: usually 1,000–1,500 people.
State polls: 500–1,000 people.
Special groups (ANES): 2,500+ people.
Margin of error (MOE): This tells you how much the poll results might be off from what everyone really thinks.
Bigger samples usually mean a smaller MOE. But at some point, making it bigger doesn't help much more and just costs more money.
What it means: if a poll says 30% with a MOE of \pm 6\% , then the real number is probably somewhere between 24% and 36%.
The formula for MOE is ME = z \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} where z is for how confident they are, and n is the sample size.
Good pollsters always tell you the MOE, dates, sample size, and who they asked so you can trust their results. They also check for weird question wording or biases.
Stuff to think about with polls (and what's not true often):
Myth: Small random groups can't represent huge populations. Truth: Math proves they can, thanks to random sampling.
Problem: Biased wording (how questions are phrased) or the order of questions can really mess with answers.
Push polls: These aren't real polls. They're designed to trick voters by making a candidate look bad while pretending to ask questions.
What polls ask about and who does them:
Topics often match the news. Some groups track things over long periods (like feelings about political values or religious beliefs).
Poll results can affect how much money donors give and what campaigns do.
Technology and polling:
Exit polls (asking people as they leave voting spots) and focus groups still happen, but most polling is by phone (CATI) or online.
Random-digit-dialing (RDD) adds new phone numbers to reach people who aren't listed or only have cell phones. Some polls ask for ZIP codes to make sure they get people from all over.
CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) uses real people calling you; robo-polls are just automated calls.
A law (Telephone Consumer Protection Act, 1991) limits automated calls to cell phones, making it harder to reach everyone.
Online and mobile surveys have their own issues: multiple accounts, not knowing if it's a real person, or if the online group truly represents everyone. Still, they're key for reaching younger people.
Challenges and changing ways:
Younger folks (Millennials, Gen Z) don't answer calls much. So, polls now use email and social media to find people.
Web surveys need to work on all browsers and phones. It's tough to get people to answer and make sure no one answers twice.
Problems with polling:
Timing is everything: Opinions can change fast between when a poll is done and election day. Surprise events can totally flip results.
Bad questions: Misleading questions can mess up results. Some polls are made to get a certain answer (those push polls again).
Historic poll fails:
1936: Literary Digest got it super wrong, said Landon would win, but Roosevelt did.
1948: Dewey vs. Truman poll messed up because opinions changed late.
2004: Kerry vs. Bush poll got it wrong due to misidentifying who would actually vote.
Bradley effect (1982 California governor's race): People might have lied to pollsters about voting for a Black candidate to seem socially appropriate.
Nate Silver's finding: Live interviewer polls and robo-polls got different results for Prop 19 (2010), suggesting people act differently when talking to a person.
Bottom line (6.2): To get good, reliable polls, you need a good sample, enough people, smart questions, and to keep up with changing tech and how people respond.
6.3 What Does the Public Think?
How opinions are formed and change:
Your political views can shift if your core beliefs aren't super strong and you hear new stuff or have new experiences.
Heuristics (shortcuts) are common: like, just voting the way your political party tells you if you don't know much about an issue.
Who you are (gender, race, income) also guides opinions when you don't have all the info.
Sometimes people do their homework on issues, but often they just vote without knowing everything.
Who you are and where you live matters:
2020 presidential election stats (shows differences by group):
Women: 57% voted for Biden; Men: 53% for Trump.
Age: Under 30, Biden got 60%; over 65, Trump got 52%.
Race: African Americans were 87% Biden; Hispanics 65% Trump.
2016 election: Similar trends with women for Clinton, men for Trump.
Income: Lower income ( < $50k) liked Democrats; higher income ( > $100k) liked Republicans.
State political cultures: Different states have different vibes that affect opinions (e.g., California wants more gun control, Texas wants less).
Influence from work and leaders:
Workplace politics: Teachers' unions or professional groups can shape opinions.
Elite cues: Older generations listened to people like Jon Stewart; younger folks get their news from social media. Who's seen as credible matters a lot.
Media and info sources:
Younger people get way more news from social media than old-school TV news. That's why credible leaders are so important.
Public opinion and politics/elections:
Public opinion can be all over the place. Party loyalty can change: in 2021, Democrats 33%, Republicans 29%, Independents 34%; about 58% want a third party.
Multiracial growth: 7% of the population is multiracial. Pew found 37% of multiracial adults liked Republicans, 57% liked Democrats. Kamala Harris, as a multiracial VP, highlights these changing demographics.
Public opinion and public policy:
The overall public mood can change policies, either because parties shift or through elections.
Social policy often means balancing rights (like with abortion or same-sex marriage).
Public mood and big events (James Stimson): Big shifts in public mood explain major policy changes (like liberal ideas in the 60s, welfare reform in the 90s).
Congress often follows the public mood, but not perfectly. Stuff like incumbents, presidential campaigns, and party drama also make a difference.
Public opinion and institutions:
Presidential approval ratings: Usually go down over time, except for spikes after big events (like the 9/11 "rally effect").
Bush (2001–2008): Approval shot up after 9/11.
Obama: Started high, bounced around.
Trump: Stayed pretty low.
Biden: Around 54% in March 2021.
Supreme Court: Generally doesn't care as much about public opinion because judges are there for life. Big decisions can shift views temporarily, but usually, the Court's approval is more stable.
Congressional approval: Way more up and down, and often lower than the president's. Spiked after 9/11 but tanked during budget fights (like 1995, 2013).
How people form opinions about policies:
People use two main ways: heuristics (party ID, who they are, group endorsements) or research (reading up on stuff).
If there's not much info, heuristics win, and opinions can change easily if the cues change.
Public opinion and how policies actually get done:
Presidents might use public opinion to justify what they do or to get support for new policies when people are on board.
But not all presidents follow public opinion; sometimes they do what they think is best even if people don't like it (e.g., Obama's policy on Guantanamo).
Media, messaging, and political leaders can all shape public opinion, which then affects policy.
Cool trends and examples:
ACA (Affordable Care Act): Support went up from 2013 to 2017 (56% approved in 2017) because more people got covered.
Same-sex marriage: Support jumped from 27% (1996) to about 70% (2020s), and then laws followed (Supreme Court in 2015).
Gun policy: About half or more people support stronger gun controls, but it totally depends on the state.
Immigration/marijuana legalization: Most people support ways for undocumented residents to become citizens and also support legalizing marijuana.
Public opinion and the politics of info:
Horserace coverage: Media focuses on who's winning in polls, which can be shallow and inaccurate. Exit polls can even affect if people bother to vote.
Push polls and "informed ballot" tricks show how polls can be used to mess with what people think.
The public mood is complicated and influenced by institutions, media, and leaders.
6.4 The Effects of Public Opinion
Big questions:
When does public opinion actually change policy?
How does public opinion hit different parts of the government and politicians?
When do public opinion and other political stuff clash?
Theories on how reps listen to polls:
Delegate representation: Politicians vote exactly how the public wants on big issues (like marijuana legalization).
Some smart people say politicians are always campaigning, using polls to keep donors and voters happy, even if their votes don't always match the polls.
Overall: Studies are mixed. Public opinion might not directly drive every policy, but it seems to nudge policies in a certain direction, and politicians do adjust over time.
Public opinion and elections:
Polls have the biggest effect on elections through news coverage, money from donors, and how strong a candidate seems.
Bandwagon effects: The media focuses on candidates who are winning, which can make them seem even more popular. "Horserace coverage" can be biased and not talk enough about real issues.
Exit polls: These can change turnout by hinting at early results, which might make people either rush to vote or decide not to.
In 2016 and 2020, polls guided donations and campaign plans, as top candidates got more money and support.
Public opinion and presidential choices:
Presidents often use public support to push policies, speaking directly to the public through the media.
High approval early on means a president can act fast on promises. Low approval can limit what they can do (like in foreign policy).
Examples:
Obama's 2015 call for gun control: he appealed to the public to push Congress, even if initial support was mixed.
2013 Syria situation: Obama thought about military action, but public opinion was against it, so he went for diplomacy with Russia instead.
Clinton's 1995 decision: he helped Mexico with loans even though the public didn't like it, showing presidents can make strategic moves against public opinion.
The role of courts and Congress:
Supreme Court: Not really swayed by short-term public opinion. Judges are in for life, so they don't face election pressure.
Congress: Way more sensitive to public opinion and elections. Public mood can affect how they vote, but it's not a perfect predictor.
James Stimson's research: Public mood affects policies and elections differently for different branches:
In the House, public mood changes don't perfectly predict re-election, thanks to incumbents and other advantages.
In the Senate, public mood shifts can impact re-election. New senators might change policy more than long-term ones.
Mandates, legitimacy, and the political agenda:
Mandate: When a candidate wins by a lot, it's seen as a strong signal from the public.
Bully pulpit: Presidents use their popularity to push for policies by talking to the media and public.
After big events, presidents might get a temporary boost in approval, which they can use to push their goals, but it usually doesn't last long.
Examples of public opinion affecting policy and institutions:
Public opinion and budget debates: Big fights over the budget (like the government shutdowns in 1995 or 2011) made public opinion of Congress tank.
Public opinion and the Supreme Court:
Court decisions can reflect what people generally think, but the Court doesn't react to quick shifts in opinion. Its long-term credibility matters.
Example: After Gore v. Bush, opinions changed. Later decisions (like on ACA or same-sex marriage) also affected how people felt about the Court.
Key takeaways:
Public opinion and government institutions mess with each other in complicated ways.
How much public opinion matters depends on when it is, what the issue is, and which part of government (president, Congress, or courts) you're talking about.
Leaders might listen to the public, have their own game plan, or make decisions carefully with poll data. It's never a simple, predictable relationship.
key figures and examples mentioned in the chapter (for quick reference)
9/11 rally effect: Bush's approval jumped from 51% to 86% super fast in 2001.
1987 vs. 2012 polarization (Pew "value questions"): In 1987, about the same number of Democrats (58%) and Republicans (60%) felt government controlled too much. By 2012, it was 47% of Democrats vs. 77% of Republicans. The gap got even bigger by 2019 (around 39% difference).
1995 government shutdowns: Congress's popularity crashed because of this.
2013 debt ceiling debates: 800,000 federal employees were sent home; Congress's approval dropped to single digits.
2001–2015 presidential approval: Obama started high (around 67%), ended middle (mid-50s). Trump started around 45% and finished around 40s. Biden was about 54% early 2021.
2020 election demographics: Biden won women (57%), Trump won men (53%); Biden got younger voters; Black voters were ~87% for Biden; Hispanic voters ~65% for Trump. Kamala Harris as VP shows changing multiracial trends.
Public opinion and policy examples:
ACA support: Went up from 2013, 56% approved in 2017.
Same-sex marriage support: Skyrocketed from 27% (1996) to ~70% (2020s).
Gun policy: About half or more people want stronger gun rules, but varies by state.
Methods and terms:
Margin of error (MOE): ME = z \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}
Random-digit-dialing (RDD), CTI (computer-assisted), robo-polls.
Push polls: Those fake polls meant to trick you.
Bradley effect: When people lie to pollsters to look good (e.g., about voting for a Black candidate).
Horserace coverage: Media obsession with who's winning in the polls, often light on substance.
Exit polls: Asking voters after they vote, can affect turnout if results leak early.
Ideology and the spectrum (Figure 6.6 and related talk):
Left-wing: Equality is key; think socialism/liberalism; want government to help everyone be equal.
Right-wing: Control over politics/economy, conservatism; prefer smaller government or free-market rules.
Extremes: Fascism and communism. Libertarianism is the opposite, all about individual rights and minimal government.
Guns-vs-butter: Classic choice between military spending and social programs.
Connections to past/future lectures:
Public opinion helps us get how voters decide, how info and learning shape beliefs, and how those beliefs turn into political actions.
Links up with bigger topics like political behavior, media effects, and how democratic government actually works.
Real-world stuff and ethics:
Good polling matters for elections, how government runs, and how legitimate policies seem.
Being ethical about wording and framing is super important so polls don't manipulate people.
What the public thinks can push or stop policymakers, but leaders aren't just robots. They often act smart, not just reacting to every poll.