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Environmental Policy & Ontario Greenbelt Lecture

Rational-Comprehensive (Idealized) Model of Policy Making

  • Four linear, orderly stages frequently cited as the “official” approach to public policy
    • Define or identify the problem
    • Assess / analyse policy options
    • Implement the selected policy
    • Evaluate the policy’s performance and outcomes
  • Assumptions
    • Actors are perfectly rational and pursue the overall public good
    • All relevant information is available, reliable, and understood
    • Implementation proceeds exactly as designed, and feedback loops trigger timely course-corrections
  • Myth vs. reality
    • Often referred to as the “rational-comprehensive model” in textbooks, but rarely observed in practice
    • Humorous proverb: “There are two things you never want to see made: sausages & public policy”

Environmental Policy Making in Practice

  • Typical sequence actually witnessed
    • Environmental problem recognised—frequently first documented by science
    • Vested interests mobilise and enter public debate
    • Scientific findings are repeatedly challenged, frequently as a deliberate delay tactic
    • Environmental NGOs push for strict regulation and state oversight
    • Industry and incumbent economic actors resist, preferring voluntary or market-based options
    • The public may react superficially or become deeply emotional
    • Politicians weigh electoral calculations, lobbying pressure, and the “NIMTO” factor (Not In My Term of Office)
    • Final compromise reflects relative power, resources, and influence rather than purely technical merit

Chronic Barriers & Challenges

  • \textbf{Political\ will\ is\ everything}
    • But political will depends on media salience, public opinion, electoral incentives, and lobbying
  • Incumbent industries possess capital, jobs, and well-established lobbying channels → structural power
  • Environmental issues are broad and diffuse; they matter to everyone in principle, but often rank low on immediate voting priorities
  • Controversy & emotion: environmental decisions intersect with values, identities, and livelihoods
  • Scientific and socio-ecological uncertainty clashes with the need for clear yes/no regulatory decisions
  • Jurisdictional overlaps (federal–provincial, provincial–municipal) complicate authority and accountability
  • Every significant policy creates winners and losers; the losers are strongly motivated to defend the status quo

Analytical Lens: 4 I’s → Ideas • Interests • Institutions • Instruments

  • Ideas
    • Public perceptions & normative frames (e.g., “jobs vs. environment”, “housing affordability”, “wetlands are wastelands or vital ecosystems?”)
    • Scientific knowledge about climate, biodiversity, ecosystem services
  • Interests
    • Concrete stakeholders and their relative power/influence (industries, NGOs, communities, future generations)
    • Possibility of “regulatory capture” when governments align too closely with industry
  • Institutions
    • Formal jurisdictional rules (federal, provincial, municipal authority)
    • Governance architectures, treaties, colonial histories
  • Instruments
    • Command-and-control regulations, taxes, fees
    • Subsidies & incentives
    • Decision-support tools: Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), modelling, cost–benefit analysis

Case Study — Ontario Greenbelt, Wetlands & Housing

1. Ontario’s Greenbelt & Growth-Plan Context

  • The Greenbelt: a provincially designated area protecting farmland, forests, rivers, lakes, and wetlands around the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)
  • Historical evolution can be traced via interactive maps and timelines (Greenbelt Foundation)
  • Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006, updated 2017)
    • Performance indicator: “Protect, conserve, enhance and wisely use natural resources”
  • The GGH is among the fastest-growing regions in North America
    • 2006 baseline vs. 2031 projection show municipalities with population increases of >22\%, >27.5\%, >38.5\%, and >44\%

2. Status & Trends in Wetlands

  • Cumulative wetland loss in Southern Ontario (1800-2002): 1.4\,\text{million ha} removed
    • Township-level percentages: 0!–!25\%, 25.1!–!45\%, 45.1!–!65\%, 65.1!–!85\%, 85.1!–!100\%
  • Additional loss 2000-2011 by ecodistrict: 6{,}152\,\text{ha} (percentage classes 0.01!–!0.40\% up to 1.41!–!1.80\%)
  • Multiple, interacting stressors
    • Invasive species (e.g., \textit{Phragmites})
    • Climate change effects on bogs and fens
    • Habitat loss via dredging, shoreline alteration, water-level manipulation, urban development

3. Existing Policy Instruments for Wetland Protection

  • Ramsar Convention (International, 1971)
  • Ontario statutes & programmes
    • Planning Act
    • Conservation Authorities Act
    • Wetland Conservation Strategy 2017!–!2030 (includes mapping and evaluation, “no net loss” goal, restoration targets)
  • Additional tools
    • Wetland evaluation system; municipal land-use planning; provincial mapping; decision-screening under Environmental Assessment Act

4. Ideas Shaping Wetland Policy

  • Widespread undervaluation: wetlands historically viewed as “swamps” hindering development
  • Development narratives (housing, agriculture) are bolstered by organised interests which influence public discourse
  • Emerging climate narrative: peatlands and other wetlands as critical natural carbon sinks → strengthens conservation rationale

5. The Housing-Affordability Argument

  • Ontario Housing Affordability Task Force (2022) claims province needs 1.5!–!1.8\,\text{million} new homes by 2030 to keep housing affordable
  • Idea competes with, and sometimes overrides, conservation goals in political messaging

6. Institutional Landscape of Land-Use Planning in Ontario

  • Layered, policy-led system
    • Provincial statutes: Planning Act, Places to Grow Act 2005, Greenbelt Act 2005, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Act 2001, Niagara Escarpment Planning & Development Act
    • Provincial policy documents: Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), Growth Plan, Greenbelt Plan, Niagara Escarpment Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan
    • Municipal official plans (single-, upper-, lower-tier)
  • Control instruments under the Planning Act
    • Zoning by-laws (§34), subdivision plans (§§50!–!51), site-plan control (§41), minor variances (§45), holding by-laws (§36), interim control (§38), Minister’s Zoning Orders (§47), temporary-use by-laws (§39), increased-height/density bonusing (§37)

7. Instrument Shift — Bill 23 “More Homes Built Faster Act” (2022)

  • Reduces Conservation Authorities’ role in reviewing planning decisions; weakens Ontario Wetland Evaluation System
  • Curtails public meetings & appeal rights under the Planning Act
  • Fast-tracks development in York and Durham Regions; eliminates upper-tier regional planning
  • Removes development charges for affordable-housing projects

8. Political Ideas & Controversies Around the Greenbelt

  • Premier Doug Ford’s public statements (2018-2022): openness to “opening up” parts of the Greenbelt, promises to replace any developed land, subsequent retractions
    • CBC, GlobalNews, YouTube clips document evolving rhetoric

9. Interests & Lobbying Networks

  • Investigations (CBC, The Narwhal, Toronto Star) map land parcels slated for removal from the Greenbelt and link them to developers with political connections
    • Notable purchasers post-June 2018: FLATO Developments, TORCA II Inc, Wyview Group-linked companies, New Horizon Development Group, Rice Group, etc.
    • Lobbyists with past ties to Progressive Conservative (PC) Party: Kailey Vokes, Imran Amin, Leith Coghlin, Peter Van Loan, Amir Remtulla, etc.
    • Government actors: Caroline Mulroney (Minister of Transportation), Steve Clark (Minister of Municipal Affairs & Housing), Doug Ford (Premier)

10. Civil-Society Mobilisation & Political Reversal

  • Intensifying media coverage and public outcry framed Greenbelt changes as potential “corruption” rather than mere land-use planning
  • September 22-23, 2023: Premier Doug Ford reverses plan to remove lands from the Greenbelt—illustrates how shifting public ideas can outweigh earlier interests and instruments

11. Integrative Summary (Ideas • Interests • Institutions • Instruments)

  • Ideas: affordability vs. conservation; corruption framing shifted public tolerance
  • Interests: developers wield capital and political access; environmentalists harness public trust and media
  • Institutions: multi-layered statutes & plans, but can be amended by majority-government legislation (e.g., Bill 23)
  • Instruments: from strict land-use zoning & Conservation Authority permits to expedited Minister’s Zoning Orders; selection of tools signals policy priorities and alters power balances

Key Takeaways for Study & Exams

  • Distinguish the rational-comprehensive model from messy political reality; be ready to cite concrete steps & deviations
  • Memorise the 4 I’s framework to dissect any environmental policy dispute
  • Recognise political will as contingent and constructed: media narratives, lobby power, election cycles matter
  • In Ontario, understand how multiple provincial statutes and municipal plans interlock—and how a single new act (Bill 23) can reconfigure the entire system
  • Case studies (Greenbelt & wetlands) show how ecological science, economic growth pressures, and political scandals intertwine to shape final policy outcomes