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PO History Week 9

The collapse of the Metternich System

• 1815 – 1853  No great power wars in four decades • 1853- 56  The Crimean War • 1859         Austro-Italian War • 1866         Austro – Prussian War • 1870         Franco- Prussian War • Jan. 18, 1871     Germany unified

• Crimean War (1853-56) instigated by French Emperor Napoleon III •Austria allied with France, Great Britain and Ottoman Empire against Russia

•The most important effect of the Crimean War was that it splitted apart Russia and Austria

• The Crimean War disintegrated the moral conservative unity among Russia and Austria (i.e. the Holy Alliance)

•After the Crimean War, balance of power in Europe was not sustained any more by common values

• After the Crimean War, Austria is not going to have any more Russian support in suppressing the nationalist movements within its empire, especially Italian & German nationalism

•1859 Austro-Italian War  - Austria was defeated and expelled from North Italy

•1866 Austro-Prussian War – Austria was defeated and Prussia got most of the territories in the German Confederation

• German Confederation disintegrated after the 1866 Austro-Prussian War

Napoleon III: The erratic emperor

Napoleon III was one of the two destroyers of the «Concert of Europe»

He perceived himself as the inspiration of European nationalist and liberal movements

•The irony about Napoleon III was that he was much more able in domestic rather than foreign policy

• Napoleon III brought Industrial Revolution to France and gave Paris the modern form it has today

•However in foreign policy, Napoleon III made moves that were completely against the national interest of France   •1. Napoleon III instigated the Crimean War that eventually split Austria and Russia apart

• 2.  Napoleon III fueled Italian nationalism against Austria and helped Italy defeat Austria in the 1859 war

• 3. Napoleon III did nothing to prevent Austrian defeat in the 1866 Prussian – Austrian War

• Napoleon III’s foreign policy moves paved the way for the unification of Germany; Napoleon III was the antithesis of Richelieu in foreign policy

• Adolphe Thiers   «France had struggled for two centuries to destroy this colossus»

Bismarck & Realpolitik

Bismarck did not support Austria during the 1859 Austro-Italian War

• Equally important, Bismarck ensured Napoleon III’s neutrality during the 1866 Austro-Prussian War (when it would have been in French national interest to support Austria against Prussia in this war)

•Bismarck only fought a limited war against Austria in 1866 and at the end convinced his military generals not to march on Vienna

• For Bismarck, national interest took precedence over ideological considerations  (Realpolitik)

• Bismarck was the German counterpart of Richelieu (raison d’état)

• Lastly, Prussia smashed France in 1870 in a quick and decisive victory

• Prussia annexed Alsace-Lorraine (one of France’s most important industrial centers)

• 18 January 1871  German Empire proclaimed in the Hall of Mirrors at Versailles in Paris (a great humiliation for France)

Otto von Bismarck had been Prussia’s ambassador to Russia, France, and the German Confederation up until 1862 when he became Prussian Chancellor

•Even though Bismarck was a conservative, he well understood that Austria was an obstacle to the unification of Germany under Prussian leadership

•Bismarck understood that it is in Prussia’s national interest to split Austria and Russia apart; Thus, Bismarck welcomed the Crimean War; Bismarck even urged Prussia to attack Austria during the Crimean War

• Bismarck had a fierce domestic clash with Prussian conservatives (his mentor Leopold von Gerlach) over whether or not to support Austria

•Bismarck considered the Crimean War and the ensuing Austrian-Russian split as a «diplomatic revolution»

Unified Germany

“from a potential victim of French aggression (1618-1815) • to a threat to the European balance of power (1871-1945)”

• weak & strong Germany are both not good for peace & stability in Europe

• Richelieu’s raison d’état kept Germany divided for more than 2 centuries

• Bismarck’s Realpolitik brought about the unification of Germany

• Bismarck’s legacy: «unassimilable greatness»

•Benjamin Disraeli was the Tory/conservative British prime minister (1874 – 80)

• Disraeli was the stateman who most quickly grasped the importance of German unification for European peace and stability

• Disraeli considered the 1870 Franco-Prussian War the  «German Revolution»

•For Disraeli, the unification of Germany was «a greater event than French Revolution»

• «the balance of power has been entirely destroyed»

WEEK 10

Bismarck’s Germany was not designed as the nation-state of all ethnic Germans

•Catholic Germans in the Austrian Empire were deliberately excluded

•Bismarck’s Germany was designed as a «Greater Prussian» state

• supremacy of Protestant Prussia in the new united Germany

• The constitution Bismarck established for Germany had many flaws in it: the government and the Prime Minister were not controlled by the parliament; they were instead appointed by the emperor and could be removed only by him

Bismarckian diplomacy (1871-1890

•The unification of Germany generated two great schisms in Europe:

• 1) Franco-German enmity   &   2) growing Austro-Russian hostility

• After its expulsion from Italy and the German Confederation, the Austrian Empire had no other place to expand except into the Balkans; However, Austria’s territorial ambitions in the Balkans put it into a direct collision course with Russia

• Two overriding goals of Bismarck’s diplomacy AFTER the unification of Germany (1871 – 1890):

•1. preserve the Austro-Hungarian Empire at all costs; for this Bismarck had to mediate between Russia and Austria and try to prevent any war between them • 2. prevent the formation of a Franco-Russian alliance against Germany (to protect Germany from a two-front war) • What could Bismarck do to achieve both these goals?

Manage Austro-Russian hostility and bring them together to a treaty with Germany

First DreikaiserBund (1873-1877)

Three Emperors’ League – alliance of the three eastern conservative empires (Austria-Hungary, Germany, Russia)

• The First Dreikaiserbund disintegrated quickly due to the «Eastern Question»

• «Eastern Question» - (A). Austro-Russian rivalry over the Balkan territories of the decaying Ottoman Empire

(A). British attempts to stop Russian expansionism towards the Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles)

•In Britain, the Tory / Conservative Party, which was the party of imperialism, was very anti-Russian; Tory governments ruled Britain for most of the time from 1874 up to 1905 (The two main Tory Prime Ministers during this time were Benjamin Disraeli and Lord Salisbury)

•Tory foreign policy towards the Ottoman Empire: the Ottoman Empire had to be preserved for it was a bulwark against Russian expansionism in the eastern Mediterranean and the Near East

Tory British Prime Minister (1885-1902)

  1. Benjamin Disraeli (1874 – 1880)

  2. Robert Arthur Gascoyne-Cecil, Lord Salisbury.

1877-78 Russo-Ottoman War (93 Harbi) •Russia declared war on the Ottoman Empire after the Ottomans suppressed the 1876 Bulgarian rebellion

•Initially, British PM Benjamin Disraeli (Tory) supported the Ottomans

•Disraeli moved the Royal Navy to the Eastern Mediterranean to show British support for the Ottomans against Russia

•But later, Disraeli withdrew his support due to pressure from British public opinion who saw the Ottomans as oppressing their Christian brethren in Bulgaria

•Russia decisively defeated the Ottomans and imposed the Treaty of San Stefano (March 1878)

•San Stefano created a «Greater Bulgaria», extending into the Mediterranean Sea, which would be the Russian puppet state in the Balkans

•Britain & Austria firmly rejected the Treaty of San Stefano, threatening Russia with war if the Treaty was not revised

• Revision of San Stefano – Congress of Berlin (July 1878)

• Bismarck convened the Congress of Berlin to avoid a European War between Austria and Britain against Russia1877-78 Russo-Ottoman War (93 Harbi)

•Russia declared war on the Ottoman Empire after the Ottomans suppressed the 1876 Bulgarian rebellion

•Initially, British PM Benjamin Disraeli (Tory) supported the Ottomans

•Disraeli moved the Royal Navy to the Eastern Mediterranean to show British support for the Ottomans against Russia

•But later, Disraeli withdrew his support due to pressure from British public opinion who saw the Ottomans as oppressing their Christian brethren in Bulgaria

•Russia decisively defeated the Ottomans and imposed the Treaty of San Stefano (March 1878)

•San Stefano created a «Greater Bulgaria», extending into the Mediterranean Sea, which would be the Russian puppet state in the Balkans

•Britain & Austria firmly rejected the Treaty of San Stefano, threatening Russia with war if the Treaty was not revised

• Revision of San Stefano – Congress of Berlin (July 1878)

• Bismarck convened the Congress of Berlin to avoid a European War between Austria and Britain against Russia

Second DreikaiserBund (1881-1887) •The Congress of Berlin was a diplomatic defeat for Russia that was forced to accept the territorial revisions in Bulgaria

•Bismarck then tried to negotiate another treaty between Germany, Austria, and Russia so as to prevent any further Austrian – Russian clashes over the Balkans – hence the second DreikaiserBund

•In the Second Dreikaiserbund, Germany, Austria and Russia pledged neutrality in case one of them engages in a war with a 4th country (ex: Britain against Russia and/or France against Germany)

• Germany committed to defend Austria against potential Russian aggression, however Germany also secured a veto over Austrian policy in the Balkans (i.e. Austria would not seek any territorial expansion in the Balkans without first getting the consent of Germany)

• The Second Dreikaiserbund assured both Germany & Russia protection against a two-front war • The Second Dreikaiserbund assured Russia against Austrian expansion in the Balkans

Reinsurance Treaty (1887) •After the new Russian Tsar Alexander III refused to renew the second Dreikaiserbund in 1887, Bismarck had to negotiate a new separate Treaty with Russia

•The 1887 Reinsurance Treaty was a secret treaty between Germany and Russia

• Germany and Russia promised each other to stay neutral in a war with a third country unless Germany attacked France and/or Russia attacked Austria

• The Reinsurance Treaty ensured both Germany & Russia protection against a two-front war

• Germany also assured Russia that it controlled (had a veto over) Austrian policy in the Balkans

• The Reinsurance Treaty was Bismarck’s last major diplomatic initiative

• Bismarck was dismissed from the post of German Chancellor by Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1890

Bismarckian diplomacy (1871-1890) •AFTER the unification of Germany, Bismarck’s foreign policy was characterized by moderation, flexibility and a quest for stability in Europe

•For 20 years after Germany’s unification (1871 – 1890), Bismarck sought to preserve peace & the status-quo in Europe; Bismarck did not try to expand Germany’s borders and did not threaten the balance of power in Europe

•Bismarck wanted peace for the then newly created German Empire so as Germany could have time to increase its wealth and power

•Bismarck did not attempt to dominate Europe so as not to provoke British concerns for the balance of power

•Bismarck deliberately kept Germany out of the colonial race; He also pushed Britain and France to colonize most of Africa after 1884 so as to deflect their attention and energies from Europe

•Bismarck for 20 years after the unification of Germany ran a diplomacy based on assurances

Bismarck’s diplomacy based on assurances (1871 – 1890) • 1. assure Austria against any Russian attack • 2. assure Russia against Austrian adventurism in the Balkans • 3. assure Britain that Germany did not aim to establish hegemony over Europe • 4. assure his country that France and Russia would not form an alliance directed against Germany

Week 11

Explaining the relative rise and decline of great powers in the world (1890 – 1914) • 1. changes in the military-industrial productive base of great powers/manufacturing output • 2. the immutable/ structural facts of geography / geopolitics (Is a country neighboring other great powers? Is it protected by water? In how many fronts does a country have to fight at the same time?)   • 3. alliance politics & decision-making

By 1903, GERMANY controlled the largest percentage (37 %) of industrial output in Europe (larger even than Britain) and the German army was the most powerful in the world

•Thus, by 1903, Germany for the first time was a potential hegemon in Europe

• Having the largest economic and military power in Europe, post-Bismarck German leaders reversed Bismarck’s foreign policy – they now wanted to establish German hegemony over Europe, expand Germany’s borders and make Germany a colonial power (a policy referred to as Weltpolitik)

•However, Germany was disadvantaged by geography because it was flanked by two great power neighbors – France in the west and Russia in the East

• AUSTRIA-HUNGARY had a relatively low share of industrial output in Europe; in terms of industrial might, Austria surpassed only Italy among the great powers

•Austria was seriously disadvantaged by geography – it might have to fight three different enemies at the same time: Italy, Russia and Serbia

•Finally, nationalism was a principal source of weakness for the Austrian Empire as it was the most multinational state among all the great powers

FRANCE was the third largest industrial power in Europe (after Germany and Britain); Its share of wealth in Europe by 1903 was around 12 %

•France also had the second most powerful army in Europe after Germany

•France possessed the largest overseas empire after Britain’s

• France was advantaged by geography because in Europe it had only one enemy (Germany) against which its entire national resources could be concentrated

•Paris even poured money into the industrialization of Russia and Italy in order to win them as allies against Germany

•However, up to 1904, France’s relations with Britain were very tense due to their competition for colonies in Africa

•RUSSIA was the fourth largest industrial power in Europe (its share of wealth was around 10 %) •It had the third most powerful army in Europe after Germany and France

•Russia’s main weakness was that it was an overwhelmingly peasant society and economically backward

•Russia’s industrialization was a forceful, state-driven, violent industrialization (largely carried out by foreigners)

•Thus, the question of «peasant rebellions» was the domestic issue that frightened Russian Tsars the most

•By geography, Russia was disadvantaged because it bordered 2 great powers in the west (Germany and Austria-Hungary)

GREAT BRITAIN’s relative economic strength declined because by 1903, both the United States and Germany had a larger share of industrial output than Britain

•«the workshop of the world was now in the 3rd place, not because it wasn’t growing, but because others were growing faster»

•Still, Britain possessed by far the largest overseas colonial empire and it had the most powerful navy in the world (but only a relatively small standing army)

•Up to 1905, Britain had serious colonial disputes with France and Russia and felt threatened by Germany’s bid for hegemony in Europe

•UNITED STATES OF AMERICA by 1900 had become the largest industrial power in the world (its share of wealth was 24 %)   •The United States was immensely advantaged by geography because it was flanked by two

huge oceans; This gave the U.S. an immense sense of security, much more than Britain

•The U.S. was the regional hegemon in the Western hemisphere (i.e. the Americas) • However, the U.S. was totally detached from the European power system • U.S. foreign policy of non-interference (Monroe Doctrine)

Undoing Bismarck’s system (I) •1890 – Kaiser Wilhelm II sacks Bismarck as German Chancellor and takes himself the reins of Germany

•Wilhelm II was only 31 years old at the time whereas Bismarck was 75 years old •1890 – Kaiser Wilhelm II rejected Russia’s offer to renew the Reinsurance Treaty • Recall that the major aim of the Reinsurance Treaty for Bismarck was to prevent the formation of a French-Russian military alliance against Germany • Hence, the end of the Reinsurance Treaty paved the way for the Franco-Russian alliance directed against Germany

• 1891 – France and Russia negotiate an «Entente Cordiale» • 1894 -  France and Russia negotiate a military alliance against Germany – what George Kennan would later call «the fateful alliance»

Undoing Bismarck’s system (II) •Another serious German move showing that Germany now wanted to challenge the status quo in Europe and wanted to become a hegemon was the rapid building of a powerful German Navy under Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz after 1900 • Wihelm II wanted to challenge the British command of the world’s seas and make Germany also a colonial empire • As German Chancellor Bernhard von Bülow (1900 – 1909) put it: «The question is not whether we want to colonize or not, but that we must colonize, whether we want it or not» • Germany ended up colonizing the following countries in Africa up to 1918: Togo, Cameroon, Namibia, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. • «No issue was as likely to turn Great Britain into an implacable adversary as a threat to its command of the seas» • As a result of all this, Britain began turning towards its erstwhile rivals (France & Russia) as a way to balance against the increasing German threat

Undoing Bismarck’s system (III) • Wilhelm II’s quest for an alliance with the Ottoman Empire • Wilhelm II wanted to economically penetrate the Middle East and use the Ottomans as a tool to raise up the Muslim subjects of the British Empire against Britain     • 1898 – Wilhelm’s second visit to Constantinople, meets with Sultan Abdul Hamid II • Wilhelm II gifts Abdul Hamid II the Alman Çeşmesi (German Fountain) as a symbol of the new German-Ottoman cooperation • 1899 – Berlin - Baghdad Railway Convention was signed between the Kaiser and Sultan Abdul Hamid II • June 1908 – new Baghdad Railway Convention was signed  between Germany and the Ottoman Empire • Germany takes over the re-organization/training of Ottoman Army and the fortification of the Straits (Boğazlar) • This was a political move that alienated / threatened both Russian and British interests in the Middle East and thus ended up drawing Britain and Russia closer to each other

Undoing Bismarck’s system (IV) •Before 1905, Germany rejected British offers for an entente-type / informal cooperation against Russia (1885-1905) • British Tories/conservatives (Lord Salisbury) were traditionally hostile to Russia and more favorable towards Germany • German leaders insisted that they wanted a military alliance with Britain, not an Entente. • What is the difference between an «alliance» and an «Entente»? • An «alliance» is binding – countries make an explicit commitment to fight together when one of them is attacked • By contrast, an «Entente» is not binding – it is an understanding that countries should consult each other and act together but there is no explicit commitment to fight together against aggression   • «Entente» was the traditional foreign policy orientation of Britain • According to Kissinger, Germany did not need an alliance with Britain; all it needed was British neutrality in event of a war against France & Russia and an «Entente» with Britain would have been enough to achieve that

The formation of the «Triple Entente» •8 April 1904 – Britain and France sign an «Entente Cordiale» (not an alliance) that temporarily put an end to their colonial rivalry overseas and led them to focus on containing the common German threat in Europe   •September 1905 – Japan inflicted a devastating defeat on Russia in East Asia, knocking Russia out of the balance of power for several years   •December 1905 – landslide victory of Liberal Party in Britain, traditionally more pro-Russian & very anti-Ottoman • 31 August 1907 – Britain and Russia sign a Convention of Understanding (not an alliance) that temporarily froze their disputes outside of Europe so that they could work together to contain Germany in Europe   • Britain, France and Russia formed a balancing coalition against Germany – the Triple Entente – seven years before the start of World War I (by 1907); However, the Triple Entente was NOT a tightly organized and formal military alliance • 1890 – 1907  «Germany had achieved the extraordinary feat of bringing together three erstwhile enemies (Britain, France, & Russia) in a hostile coalition aimed against it»

Week 12

Triggering events that led to the First World War The 1908 Bosnian Crisis •June 1908 – new Baghdad railway convention was signed between Germany and the Ottoman Empire • July 24th, 1908 - Young Turk Revolution in Constantinople (Sultan Abdul Hamid II was deposed by the Committee of Union and Progress (CUP) and the 1876 Ottoman constitution was restored) • CUP was a Francophile organization (it was founded in Paris in 1889 by young Ottoman emigres) and as such it was not trusted by Germany & Austria • October 5th, 1908 – Bulgaria (pushed by Austria) declares de jure independence from the Ottoman Empire • October 6th, 1908 – Austria de jure annexes Bosnia-Herzegovina from the Ottoman Empire (Bosnian Crisis) •March 1909 – Russia accepts the annexation of Bosnia by Austria • Russia was actually threatened with war by Germany if it did not accept Bosnia’s annexation (and Russia was quite weak at the time, still recovering from the defeat in the 1905 war against Japan) • The 1908 Bosnian Crisis was a great humiliation for Russia

The Balkan Wars (October 1912 – August 1913) •October 1912 – May 1913   First Balkan War (masterminded by Russian ambassador in Belgrade Nikolai Hartwig) •«Balkan League» armies (Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Greece) expel Ottomans from all its Balkan territories; «Balkan League» was a Russian creation • Germany & Austria did not intervene for the Ottomans during the First Balkan War • Edirne fell to the Bulgarians, who also made it until Çatalca; Russia threatened intervention because it did not trust Bulgaria (Russia’s paranoia about the Straits)   • Germany & Austria threatened Serbia to withdraw from Albania; Russia also told the Serbs to withdraw from Albania   • 23 January 1913  Committee of Union and Progress staged a coup against Hürriyet ve İtilaf Fırkası (Freedom and Accord Party) in Istanbul • June – August 1913  Second Balkan War  Serbia & Greece fought against Bulgaria over the territories they conquered from Ottomans during the First Balkan War

The July 1914 Crisis: A timeline • 28 June 1914 – Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo (by Bosnian Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip) • 5 – 6 July 1914 – Austria goes for consultation to Berlin; Kaiser Wilhelm II & German Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg give «blank check» to Austria •20 – 23 July 1914 -  French delegation (president Raymond Poincare & FM Rene Viviani) goes to St. Petersburg • 23 July 1914 (6 p.m.) -  Austria issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Belgrade • 24 July 1914 -  Russia (Foreign Minister Sergey Sazonov) orders partial mobilization against Austria • 26 July 1914 – Germany & Austria protest at Britain upon rumours of Russian mobilization, but Britain dismissed such claims • 27 July 1914 – Germany «green lights» Austria’s declaration of war on Serbia • 28 July 1914 – Austria declares war on Serbia • 29 July 1914 – Russian military planners compel the Tsar to shift from partial to general mobilization (both against Austria & Germany)

The July 1914 Crisis: A timeline •30-31 July 1914  Germany issues a 12-hour ultimatum to Russia to de-mobilize, but Russia rejected it; Germany then declared war on Russia •Germany’s mobilization plan (Schlieffen Plan): first achieve a quick, knockout blow against France in the west (attacking through Belgium), then throw all of Germany’s forces against Russia in the east • Key for Schlieffen Plan: speed (France had to be knocked out within 6 weeks –  literally 42 days) •3 August 1914 – Germany declared war on France and invaded Belgium • 4 August 1914 – Britain declared war on Germany because the neutrality of Belgium had been violated • August 1914 – November 1918    TOTAL WAR

Week 13

Why was the war so lengthy?

1. technical military reasons – quick-firing artillery and machine guns forced masses of troops into trenches

trench warfare was used much more extensively in the Western than Eastern front

• Stalemate prevailed on the Western front; there was no significant advance from both warring sides

• The absence of tanks and/or warplanes at the time prevented both sides from breaking the stalemate on the trenches

2. the alliance system – countries would not allow their allies to capitulate

• Which side wins in prolonged Great Power coalition wars?

• the side whose combination of both military/naval & financial/industrial/technological resources was the greatest

• Germany’s offensive into Paris was halted by French-British armies in the Battle of the Marne (September 1914); Schlieffen Plan mostly failed

• Germany routs Russia in the Battle of Tannenberg (26-30 August 1914) in the Eastern Front

• British blockade of Germany – near-total knockout of Germany’s transatlantic trade

• Germany retaliates by limited submarine (U-boat) warfare (1915) – underwater blockade (Germany sank the civilian ship Lusitania in May 1915)

• Churchill’s disastrous Gallipoli / Çanakkale Campaign against the Ottoman Empire (February 1915 – January 1916)

• Russia strategically isolated in the East – unable to secure British-French military & economic supplies

Sykes – Picot- Sazonov Agreement to carve up the Ottoman Empire (May 16th, 1916)

• Yet, by the end of 1916, Russians had done extremely well in the Caucasus against the Ottomans; Russians had managed to catch Rize, Trabzon, Erzincan, Van, Bitlis and wanted to march toward Mosul

The collapse of Tsarist Russia

February 1917 – Germany starts unrestricted U-boat campaign on neutral merchant ships (mostly American) on British waters

•German Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg objected to this but the military (general Erich Ludendorff) actually controlled the country by then. Germany was essentially a military dictatorship during World War I

24 – 28 February 1917  The abdication of Russian Tsar Nicholas II after popular uprising in the streets of St. Petersburg ; the overthrow of the Romanov dynasty

February – October 1917   Provisional Government composed of different parties in the Duma (Russian parliament) took over

•However, the Provisional Government did NOT take Russia out of war

25 – 26 October 1917    Bolshevik revolutionaries led by Lenin and assisted by Germany stage a coup and bring down the Provisional Government (the Bolshevik Revolution)

•Lenin’s first move upon seizing power: sues for peace and proposes «unconditional surrender» to the Germans

3 March 1918 – Treaty of Brest-Litovsk  Russia withdrew from the war; Germany won the war in the Eastern front

U.S. entry into war

6 April 1917   The Zimmermann Telegram and the U.S. Declaration of war on Germany

•Germany’s offer to Mexico: “If you can tie down American forces, we will promise you California, New Mexico, and Arizona”

If there had not been any Zimmermann scandal, there would have been very little chance that the U.S. would have entered the First World War

•Then American President Woodrow Wilson (Democratic Party) had run for re-election in 1916 on the platform “I kept us out of war, and I will keep you out of war”

It was very difficult to break isolationism in U.S. foreign policy

• In terms of economic power, U.S. entry into war transformed the balances and more than compensated for the collapse of Russia

• By 1918, U.S. was capable of pouring nearly 300,000 troops a month into France

Conclusion

•Failure of Germany’s last offensive to break the stalemate on the Western Front (Spring 1918)

• Allies’ (Britain + France + U.S.) massive advantage in sheer economic muscle and the considerable advantage in the size of total mobilized forces

• «By July 1918, Erich Ludendorff despaired at running out of able-bodied troops»

Allies’ superiority in productive forces (AFTER U.S. entry into war) eventually turned out to be decisive in defeating Germany

• Germany agreed to lay down its weapons on November 11, 1918

•Because Germany lost the war, the terms of the March 1918 Brest – Litovsk Treaty were rendered invalid

D

Po

PO History Week 9

The collapse of the Metternich System

• 1815 – 1853  No great power wars in four decades • 1853- 56  The Crimean War • 1859         Austro-Italian War • 1866         Austro – Prussian War • 1870         Franco- Prussian War • Jan. 18, 1871     Germany unified

• Crimean War (1853-56) instigated by French Emperor Napoleon III •Austria allied with France, Great Britain and Ottoman Empire against Russia

•The most important effect of the Crimean War was that it splitted apart Russia and Austria

• The Crimean War disintegrated the moral conservative unity among Russia and Austria (i.e. the Holy Alliance)

•After the Crimean War, balance of power in Europe was not sustained any more by common values

• After the Crimean War, Austria is not going to have any more Russian support in suppressing the nationalist movements within its empire, especially Italian & German nationalism

•1859 Austro-Italian War  - Austria was defeated and expelled from North Italy

•1866 Austro-Prussian War – Austria was defeated and Prussia got most of the territories in the German Confederation

• German Confederation disintegrated after the 1866 Austro-Prussian War

Napoleon III: The erratic emperor

Napoleon III was one of the two destroyers of the «Concert of Europe»

He perceived himself as the inspiration of European nationalist and liberal movements

•The irony about Napoleon III was that he was much more able in domestic rather than foreign policy

• Napoleon III brought Industrial Revolution to France and gave Paris the modern form it has today

•However in foreign policy, Napoleon III made moves that were completely against the national interest of France   •1. Napoleon III instigated the Crimean War that eventually split Austria and Russia apart

• 2.  Napoleon III fueled Italian nationalism against Austria and helped Italy defeat Austria in the 1859 war

• 3. Napoleon III did nothing to prevent Austrian defeat in the 1866 Prussian – Austrian War

• Napoleon III’s foreign policy moves paved the way for the unification of Germany; Napoleon III was the antithesis of Richelieu in foreign policy

• Adolphe Thiers   «France had struggled for two centuries to destroy this colossus»

Bismarck & Realpolitik

Bismarck did not support Austria during the 1859 Austro-Italian War

• Equally important, Bismarck ensured Napoleon III’s neutrality during the 1866 Austro-Prussian War (when it would have been in French national interest to support Austria against Prussia in this war)

•Bismarck only fought a limited war against Austria in 1866 and at the end convinced his military generals not to march on Vienna

• For Bismarck, national interest took precedence over ideological considerations  (Realpolitik)

• Bismarck was the German counterpart of Richelieu (raison d’état)

• Lastly, Prussia smashed France in 1870 in a quick and decisive victory

• Prussia annexed Alsace-Lorraine (one of France’s most important industrial centers)

• 18 January 1871  German Empire proclaimed in the Hall of Mirrors at Versailles in Paris (a great humiliation for France)

Otto von Bismarck had been Prussia’s ambassador to Russia, France, and the German Confederation up until 1862 when he became Prussian Chancellor

•Even though Bismarck was a conservative, he well understood that Austria was an obstacle to the unification of Germany under Prussian leadership

•Bismarck understood that it is in Prussia’s national interest to split Austria and Russia apart; Thus, Bismarck welcomed the Crimean War; Bismarck even urged Prussia to attack Austria during the Crimean War

• Bismarck had a fierce domestic clash with Prussian conservatives (his mentor Leopold von Gerlach) over whether or not to support Austria

•Bismarck considered the Crimean War and the ensuing Austrian-Russian split as a «diplomatic revolution»

Unified Germany

“from a potential victim of French aggression (1618-1815) • to a threat to the European balance of power (1871-1945)”

• weak & strong Germany are both not good for peace & stability in Europe

• Richelieu’s raison d’état kept Germany divided for more than 2 centuries

• Bismarck’s Realpolitik brought about the unification of Germany

• Bismarck’s legacy: «unassimilable greatness»

•Benjamin Disraeli was the Tory/conservative British prime minister (1874 – 80)

• Disraeli was the stateman who most quickly grasped the importance of German unification for European peace and stability

• Disraeli considered the 1870 Franco-Prussian War the  «German Revolution»

•For Disraeli, the unification of Germany was «a greater event than French Revolution»

• «the balance of power has been entirely destroyed»

WEEK 10

Bismarck’s Germany was not designed as the nation-state of all ethnic Germans

•Catholic Germans in the Austrian Empire were deliberately excluded

•Bismarck’s Germany was designed as a «Greater Prussian» state

• supremacy of Protestant Prussia in the new united Germany

• The constitution Bismarck established for Germany had many flaws in it: the government and the Prime Minister were not controlled by the parliament; they were instead appointed by the emperor and could be removed only by him

Bismarckian diplomacy (1871-1890

•The unification of Germany generated two great schisms in Europe:

• 1) Franco-German enmity   &   2) growing Austro-Russian hostility

• After its expulsion from Italy and the German Confederation, the Austrian Empire had no other place to expand except into the Balkans; However, Austria’s territorial ambitions in the Balkans put it into a direct collision course with Russia

• Two overriding goals of Bismarck’s diplomacy AFTER the unification of Germany (1871 – 1890):

•1. preserve the Austro-Hungarian Empire at all costs; for this Bismarck had to mediate between Russia and Austria and try to prevent any war between them • 2. prevent the formation of a Franco-Russian alliance against Germany (to protect Germany from a two-front war) • What could Bismarck do to achieve both these goals?

Manage Austro-Russian hostility and bring them together to a treaty with Germany

First DreikaiserBund (1873-1877)

Three Emperors’ League – alliance of the three eastern conservative empires (Austria-Hungary, Germany, Russia)

• The First Dreikaiserbund disintegrated quickly due to the «Eastern Question»

• «Eastern Question» - (A). Austro-Russian rivalry over the Balkan territories of the decaying Ottoman Empire

(A). British attempts to stop Russian expansionism towards the Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles)

•In Britain, the Tory / Conservative Party, which was the party of imperialism, was very anti-Russian; Tory governments ruled Britain for most of the time from 1874 up to 1905 (The two main Tory Prime Ministers during this time were Benjamin Disraeli and Lord Salisbury)

•Tory foreign policy towards the Ottoman Empire: the Ottoman Empire had to be preserved for it was a bulwark against Russian expansionism in the eastern Mediterranean and the Near East

Tory British Prime Minister (1885-1902)

  1. Benjamin Disraeli (1874 – 1880)

  2. Robert Arthur Gascoyne-Cecil, Lord Salisbury.

1877-78 Russo-Ottoman War (93 Harbi) •Russia declared war on the Ottoman Empire after the Ottomans suppressed the 1876 Bulgarian rebellion

•Initially, British PM Benjamin Disraeli (Tory) supported the Ottomans

•Disraeli moved the Royal Navy to the Eastern Mediterranean to show British support for the Ottomans against Russia

•But later, Disraeli withdrew his support due to pressure from British public opinion who saw the Ottomans as oppressing their Christian brethren in Bulgaria

•Russia decisively defeated the Ottomans and imposed the Treaty of San Stefano (March 1878)

•San Stefano created a «Greater Bulgaria», extending into the Mediterranean Sea, which would be the Russian puppet state in the Balkans

•Britain & Austria firmly rejected the Treaty of San Stefano, threatening Russia with war if the Treaty was not revised

• Revision of San Stefano – Congress of Berlin (July 1878)

• Bismarck convened the Congress of Berlin to avoid a European War between Austria and Britain against Russia1877-78 Russo-Ottoman War (93 Harbi)

•Russia declared war on the Ottoman Empire after the Ottomans suppressed the 1876 Bulgarian rebellion

•Initially, British PM Benjamin Disraeli (Tory) supported the Ottomans

•Disraeli moved the Royal Navy to the Eastern Mediterranean to show British support for the Ottomans against Russia

•But later, Disraeli withdrew his support due to pressure from British public opinion who saw the Ottomans as oppressing their Christian brethren in Bulgaria

•Russia decisively defeated the Ottomans and imposed the Treaty of San Stefano (March 1878)

•San Stefano created a «Greater Bulgaria», extending into the Mediterranean Sea, which would be the Russian puppet state in the Balkans

•Britain & Austria firmly rejected the Treaty of San Stefano, threatening Russia with war if the Treaty was not revised

• Revision of San Stefano – Congress of Berlin (July 1878)

• Bismarck convened the Congress of Berlin to avoid a European War between Austria and Britain against Russia

Second DreikaiserBund (1881-1887) •The Congress of Berlin was a diplomatic defeat for Russia that was forced to accept the territorial revisions in Bulgaria

•Bismarck then tried to negotiate another treaty between Germany, Austria, and Russia so as to prevent any further Austrian – Russian clashes over the Balkans – hence the second DreikaiserBund

•In the Second Dreikaiserbund, Germany, Austria and Russia pledged neutrality in case one of them engages in a war with a 4th country (ex: Britain against Russia and/or France against Germany)

• Germany committed to defend Austria against potential Russian aggression, however Germany also secured a veto over Austrian policy in the Balkans (i.e. Austria would not seek any territorial expansion in the Balkans without first getting the consent of Germany)

• The Second Dreikaiserbund assured both Germany & Russia protection against a two-front war • The Second Dreikaiserbund assured Russia against Austrian expansion in the Balkans

Reinsurance Treaty (1887) •After the new Russian Tsar Alexander III refused to renew the second Dreikaiserbund in 1887, Bismarck had to negotiate a new separate Treaty with Russia

•The 1887 Reinsurance Treaty was a secret treaty between Germany and Russia

• Germany and Russia promised each other to stay neutral in a war with a third country unless Germany attacked France and/or Russia attacked Austria

• The Reinsurance Treaty ensured both Germany & Russia protection against a two-front war

• Germany also assured Russia that it controlled (had a veto over) Austrian policy in the Balkans

• The Reinsurance Treaty was Bismarck’s last major diplomatic initiative

• Bismarck was dismissed from the post of German Chancellor by Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1890

Bismarckian diplomacy (1871-1890) •AFTER the unification of Germany, Bismarck’s foreign policy was characterized by moderation, flexibility and a quest for stability in Europe

•For 20 years after Germany’s unification (1871 – 1890), Bismarck sought to preserve peace & the status-quo in Europe; Bismarck did not try to expand Germany’s borders and did not threaten the balance of power in Europe

•Bismarck wanted peace for the then newly created German Empire so as Germany could have time to increase its wealth and power

•Bismarck did not attempt to dominate Europe so as not to provoke British concerns for the balance of power

•Bismarck deliberately kept Germany out of the colonial race; He also pushed Britain and France to colonize most of Africa after 1884 so as to deflect their attention and energies from Europe

•Bismarck for 20 years after the unification of Germany ran a diplomacy based on assurances

Bismarck’s diplomacy based on assurances (1871 – 1890) • 1. assure Austria against any Russian attack • 2. assure Russia against Austrian adventurism in the Balkans • 3. assure Britain that Germany did not aim to establish hegemony over Europe • 4. assure his country that France and Russia would not form an alliance directed against Germany

Week 11

Explaining the relative rise and decline of great powers in the world (1890 – 1914) • 1. changes in the military-industrial productive base of great powers/manufacturing output • 2. the immutable/ structural facts of geography / geopolitics (Is a country neighboring other great powers? Is it protected by water? In how many fronts does a country have to fight at the same time?)   • 3. alliance politics & decision-making

By 1903, GERMANY controlled the largest percentage (37 %) of industrial output in Europe (larger even than Britain) and the German army was the most powerful in the world

•Thus, by 1903, Germany for the first time was a potential hegemon in Europe

• Having the largest economic and military power in Europe, post-Bismarck German leaders reversed Bismarck’s foreign policy – they now wanted to establish German hegemony over Europe, expand Germany’s borders and make Germany a colonial power (a policy referred to as Weltpolitik)

•However, Germany was disadvantaged by geography because it was flanked by two great power neighbors – France in the west and Russia in the East

• AUSTRIA-HUNGARY had a relatively low share of industrial output in Europe; in terms of industrial might, Austria surpassed only Italy among the great powers

•Austria was seriously disadvantaged by geography – it might have to fight three different enemies at the same time: Italy, Russia and Serbia

•Finally, nationalism was a principal source of weakness for the Austrian Empire as it was the most multinational state among all the great powers

FRANCE was the third largest industrial power in Europe (after Germany and Britain); Its share of wealth in Europe by 1903 was around 12 %

•France also had the second most powerful army in Europe after Germany

•France possessed the largest overseas empire after Britain’s

• France was advantaged by geography because in Europe it had only one enemy (Germany) against which its entire national resources could be concentrated

•Paris even poured money into the industrialization of Russia and Italy in order to win them as allies against Germany

•However, up to 1904, France’s relations with Britain were very tense due to their competition for colonies in Africa

•RUSSIA was the fourth largest industrial power in Europe (its share of wealth was around 10 %) •It had the third most powerful army in Europe after Germany and France

•Russia’s main weakness was that it was an overwhelmingly peasant society and economically backward

•Russia’s industrialization was a forceful, state-driven, violent industrialization (largely carried out by foreigners)

•Thus, the question of «peasant rebellions» was the domestic issue that frightened Russian Tsars the most

•By geography, Russia was disadvantaged because it bordered 2 great powers in the west (Germany and Austria-Hungary)

GREAT BRITAIN’s relative economic strength declined because by 1903, both the United States and Germany had a larger share of industrial output than Britain

•«the workshop of the world was now in the 3rd place, not because it wasn’t growing, but because others were growing faster»

•Still, Britain possessed by far the largest overseas colonial empire and it had the most powerful navy in the world (but only a relatively small standing army)

•Up to 1905, Britain had serious colonial disputes with France and Russia and felt threatened by Germany’s bid for hegemony in Europe

•UNITED STATES OF AMERICA by 1900 had become the largest industrial power in the world (its share of wealth was 24 %)   •The United States was immensely advantaged by geography because it was flanked by two

huge oceans; This gave the U.S. an immense sense of security, much more than Britain

•The U.S. was the regional hegemon in the Western hemisphere (i.e. the Americas) • However, the U.S. was totally detached from the European power system • U.S. foreign policy of non-interference (Monroe Doctrine)

Undoing Bismarck’s system (I) •1890 – Kaiser Wilhelm II sacks Bismarck as German Chancellor and takes himself the reins of Germany

•Wilhelm II was only 31 years old at the time whereas Bismarck was 75 years old •1890 – Kaiser Wilhelm II rejected Russia’s offer to renew the Reinsurance Treaty • Recall that the major aim of the Reinsurance Treaty for Bismarck was to prevent the formation of a French-Russian military alliance against Germany • Hence, the end of the Reinsurance Treaty paved the way for the Franco-Russian alliance directed against Germany

• 1891 – France and Russia negotiate an «Entente Cordiale» • 1894 -  France and Russia negotiate a military alliance against Germany – what George Kennan would later call «the fateful alliance»

Undoing Bismarck’s system (II) •Another serious German move showing that Germany now wanted to challenge the status quo in Europe and wanted to become a hegemon was the rapid building of a powerful German Navy under Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz after 1900 • Wihelm II wanted to challenge the British command of the world’s seas and make Germany also a colonial empire • As German Chancellor Bernhard von Bülow (1900 – 1909) put it: «The question is not whether we want to colonize or not, but that we must colonize, whether we want it or not» • Germany ended up colonizing the following countries in Africa up to 1918: Togo, Cameroon, Namibia, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. • «No issue was as likely to turn Great Britain into an implacable adversary as a threat to its command of the seas» • As a result of all this, Britain began turning towards its erstwhile rivals (France & Russia) as a way to balance against the increasing German threat

Undoing Bismarck’s system (III) • Wilhelm II’s quest for an alliance with the Ottoman Empire • Wilhelm II wanted to economically penetrate the Middle East and use the Ottomans as a tool to raise up the Muslim subjects of the British Empire against Britain     • 1898 – Wilhelm’s second visit to Constantinople, meets with Sultan Abdul Hamid II • Wilhelm II gifts Abdul Hamid II the Alman Çeşmesi (German Fountain) as a symbol of the new German-Ottoman cooperation • 1899 – Berlin - Baghdad Railway Convention was signed between the Kaiser and Sultan Abdul Hamid II • June 1908 – new Baghdad Railway Convention was signed  between Germany and the Ottoman Empire • Germany takes over the re-organization/training of Ottoman Army and the fortification of the Straits (Boğazlar) • This was a political move that alienated / threatened both Russian and British interests in the Middle East and thus ended up drawing Britain and Russia closer to each other

Undoing Bismarck’s system (IV) •Before 1905, Germany rejected British offers for an entente-type / informal cooperation against Russia (1885-1905) • British Tories/conservatives (Lord Salisbury) were traditionally hostile to Russia and more favorable towards Germany • German leaders insisted that they wanted a military alliance with Britain, not an Entente. • What is the difference between an «alliance» and an «Entente»? • An «alliance» is binding – countries make an explicit commitment to fight together when one of them is attacked • By contrast, an «Entente» is not binding – it is an understanding that countries should consult each other and act together but there is no explicit commitment to fight together against aggression   • «Entente» was the traditional foreign policy orientation of Britain • According to Kissinger, Germany did not need an alliance with Britain; all it needed was British neutrality in event of a war against France & Russia and an «Entente» with Britain would have been enough to achieve that

The formation of the «Triple Entente» •8 April 1904 – Britain and France sign an «Entente Cordiale» (not an alliance) that temporarily put an end to their colonial rivalry overseas and led them to focus on containing the common German threat in Europe   •September 1905 – Japan inflicted a devastating defeat on Russia in East Asia, knocking Russia out of the balance of power for several years   •December 1905 – landslide victory of Liberal Party in Britain, traditionally more pro-Russian & very anti-Ottoman • 31 August 1907 – Britain and Russia sign a Convention of Understanding (not an alliance) that temporarily froze their disputes outside of Europe so that they could work together to contain Germany in Europe   • Britain, France and Russia formed a balancing coalition against Germany – the Triple Entente – seven years before the start of World War I (by 1907); However, the Triple Entente was NOT a tightly organized and formal military alliance • 1890 – 1907  «Germany had achieved the extraordinary feat of bringing together three erstwhile enemies (Britain, France, & Russia) in a hostile coalition aimed against it»

Week 12

Triggering events that led to the First World War The 1908 Bosnian Crisis •June 1908 – new Baghdad railway convention was signed between Germany and the Ottoman Empire • July 24th, 1908 - Young Turk Revolution in Constantinople (Sultan Abdul Hamid II was deposed by the Committee of Union and Progress (CUP) and the 1876 Ottoman constitution was restored) • CUP was a Francophile organization (it was founded in Paris in 1889 by young Ottoman emigres) and as such it was not trusted by Germany & Austria • October 5th, 1908 – Bulgaria (pushed by Austria) declares de jure independence from the Ottoman Empire • October 6th, 1908 – Austria de jure annexes Bosnia-Herzegovina from the Ottoman Empire (Bosnian Crisis) •March 1909 – Russia accepts the annexation of Bosnia by Austria • Russia was actually threatened with war by Germany if it did not accept Bosnia’s annexation (and Russia was quite weak at the time, still recovering from the defeat in the 1905 war against Japan) • The 1908 Bosnian Crisis was a great humiliation for Russia

The Balkan Wars (October 1912 – August 1913) •October 1912 – May 1913   First Balkan War (masterminded by Russian ambassador in Belgrade Nikolai Hartwig) •«Balkan League» armies (Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Greece) expel Ottomans from all its Balkan territories; «Balkan League» was a Russian creation • Germany & Austria did not intervene for the Ottomans during the First Balkan War • Edirne fell to the Bulgarians, who also made it until Çatalca; Russia threatened intervention because it did not trust Bulgaria (Russia’s paranoia about the Straits)   • Germany & Austria threatened Serbia to withdraw from Albania; Russia also told the Serbs to withdraw from Albania   • 23 January 1913  Committee of Union and Progress staged a coup against Hürriyet ve İtilaf Fırkası (Freedom and Accord Party) in Istanbul • June – August 1913  Second Balkan War  Serbia & Greece fought against Bulgaria over the territories they conquered from Ottomans during the First Balkan War

The July 1914 Crisis: A timeline • 28 June 1914 – Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo (by Bosnian Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip) • 5 – 6 July 1914 – Austria goes for consultation to Berlin; Kaiser Wilhelm II & German Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg give «blank check» to Austria •20 – 23 July 1914 -  French delegation (president Raymond Poincare & FM Rene Viviani) goes to St. Petersburg • 23 July 1914 (6 p.m.) -  Austria issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Belgrade • 24 July 1914 -  Russia (Foreign Minister Sergey Sazonov) orders partial mobilization against Austria • 26 July 1914 – Germany & Austria protest at Britain upon rumours of Russian mobilization, but Britain dismissed such claims • 27 July 1914 – Germany «green lights» Austria’s declaration of war on Serbia • 28 July 1914 – Austria declares war on Serbia • 29 July 1914 – Russian military planners compel the Tsar to shift from partial to general mobilization (both against Austria & Germany)

The July 1914 Crisis: A timeline •30-31 July 1914  Germany issues a 12-hour ultimatum to Russia to de-mobilize, but Russia rejected it; Germany then declared war on Russia •Germany’s mobilization plan (Schlieffen Plan): first achieve a quick, knockout blow against France in the west (attacking through Belgium), then throw all of Germany’s forces against Russia in the east • Key for Schlieffen Plan: speed (France had to be knocked out within 6 weeks –  literally 42 days) •3 August 1914 – Germany declared war on France and invaded Belgium • 4 August 1914 – Britain declared war on Germany because the neutrality of Belgium had been violated • August 1914 – November 1918    TOTAL WAR

Week 13

Why was the war so lengthy?

1. technical military reasons – quick-firing artillery and machine guns forced masses of troops into trenches

trench warfare was used much more extensively in the Western than Eastern front

• Stalemate prevailed on the Western front; there was no significant advance from both warring sides

• The absence of tanks and/or warplanes at the time prevented both sides from breaking the stalemate on the trenches

2. the alliance system – countries would not allow their allies to capitulate

• Which side wins in prolonged Great Power coalition wars?

• the side whose combination of both military/naval & financial/industrial/technological resources was the greatest

• Germany’s offensive into Paris was halted by French-British armies in the Battle of the Marne (September 1914); Schlieffen Plan mostly failed

• Germany routs Russia in the Battle of Tannenberg (26-30 August 1914) in the Eastern Front

• British blockade of Germany – near-total knockout of Germany’s transatlantic trade

• Germany retaliates by limited submarine (U-boat) warfare (1915) – underwater blockade (Germany sank the civilian ship Lusitania in May 1915)

• Churchill’s disastrous Gallipoli / Çanakkale Campaign against the Ottoman Empire (February 1915 – January 1916)

• Russia strategically isolated in the East – unable to secure British-French military & economic supplies

Sykes – Picot- Sazonov Agreement to carve up the Ottoman Empire (May 16th, 1916)

• Yet, by the end of 1916, Russians had done extremely well in the Caucasus against the Ottomans; Russians had managed to catch Rize, Trabzon, Erzincan, Van, Bitlis and wanted to march toward Mosul

The collapse of Tsarist Russia

February 1917 – Germany starts unrestricted U-boat campaign on neutral merchant ships (mostly American) on British waters

•German Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg objected to this but the military (general Erich Ludendorff) actually controlled the country by then. Germany was essentially a military dictatorship during World War I

24 – 28 February 1917  The abdication of Russian Tsar Nicholas II after popular uprising in the streets of St. Petersburg ; the overthrow of the Romanov dynasty

February – October 1917   Provisional Government composed of different parties in the Duma (Russian parliament) took over

•However, the Provisional Government did NOT take Russia out of war

25 – 26 October 1917    Bolshevik revolutionaries led by Lenin and assisted by Germany stage a coup and bring down the Provisional Government (the Bolshevik Revolution)

•Lenin’s first move upon seizing power: sues for peace and proposes «unconditional surrender» to the Germans

3 March 1918 – Treaty of Brest-Litovsk  Russia withdrew from the war; Germany won the war in the Eastern front

U.S. entry into war

6 April 1917   The Zimmermann Telegram and the U.S. Declaration of war on Germany

•Germany’s offer to Mexico: “If you can tie down American forces, we will promise you California, New Mexico, and Arizona”

If there had not been any Zimmermann scandal, there would have been very little chance that the U.S. would have entered the First World War

•Then American President Woodrow Wilson (Democratic Party) had run for re-election in 1916 on the platform “I kept us out of war, and I will keep you out of war”

It was very difficult to break isolationism in U.S. foreign policy

• In terms of economic power, U.S. entry into war transformed the balances and more than compensated for the collapse of Russia

• By 1918, U.S. was capable of pouring nearly 300,000 troops a month into France

Conclusion

•Failure of Germany’s last offensive to break the stalemate on the Western Front (Spring 1918)

• Allies’ (Britain + France + U.S.) massive advantage in sheer economic muscle and the considerable advantage in the size of total mobilized forces

• «By July 1918, Erich Ludendorff despaired at running out of able-bodied troops»

Allies’ superiority in productive forces (AFTER U.S. entry into war) eventually turned out to be decisive in defeating Germany

• Germany agreed to lay down its weapons on November 11, 1918

•Because Germany lost the war, the terms of the March 1918 Brest – Litovsk Treaty were rendered invalid