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Chapter 23 - Six Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy

23.1: Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize the Economy?

Pro: Policymakers Should Try to Stabilize the Economy:

  • Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand

    • Including production and employment

  • When aggregate demand is inadequate to ensure full employment

    • Policymakers should boost government spending, cut taxes, and expand the money supply

  • When aggregate demand is excessive, risking high inflation

    • Policymakers should cut government spending, raise taxes, and reduce the money supply

  • Not only do all these points lead to a more stable economy, it benefits everyone

Con: Policymakers Should Not Try to Stabilize the Economy

  • Monetary and fiscal policy do not affect the economy immediately

    • It works with a long lag

  • Monetary policy affects aggregate demand primarily by changing interest rates

    • Affect spendings, residential and business investments

    • But many households and firms set their spending plans in advance

      • Takes time for changes in interest rates to alter the aggregate demand for goods and services

  • Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes

    • In order to make changes in the fiscal policy, a bill must go through congressional committees

      • The house, the senate, and signed by the president

22.2: Should the Government Fight Recessions with Spending Hikes Rather Than Tax Cuts?

Pro: The Government Should Fight Recessions with Spending Hikes:

  • The key to ending recessions is to restore aggregate demand to a level consistent with full employment of the economy’s labor force

Con: The Government Should Fight Recessions with Tax Cuts:

  • Tax cuts have important influence on both aggregate demand and aggregate supply

    • They increase aggregate demand by increasing households’ disposable income

    • If tax reduction takes the form of an expanded investment tax credit, they can induce increased spending on investment and goods

22.3: Should Monetary Policy Be Made by Rule Rather Than by Discretion?

Pro: Monetary Policy Should Be Made by Rule:

  • Discretion in the conduct of monetary policy has two problems

    • Abuse of power

      • Bankers are tempted to use monetary policy to affect the outcome of elections

    • Might lead to more inflation than is desirable

Con: Monetary Policy Should Not Be Made by Rule:

  • Alleged problems with discretion are largely hypothetical

  • Bankers are trustable with their words because they can achieve credibility over time by backing their words with their actions

23.4: Should the Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?

Pro: The Central Bank Should Aim for Zero Inflation:

  • Trade-offs will improve

    • No need for a trade-off between inflation and unemployment

  • A policy that comes with temporary costs and permanent benefits

    • Benefits of zero inflation in the future

  • Zero provides a more natural focal point for policymakers than any other number

Con: The Central Bank Should Not Aim for Zero Inflation:

  • When the economy goes into recession, all incomes do not fall proportionately

    • The fall in aggregate income is concentrated on those workers who lose their jobs

  • Inflation allows for the possibility of negative real interest rates

    • If inflation is zero, real interest rates can never be negative as well

22.5: Should the Government Balance Its Budget?

Pro: The Government Should Balance Its Budget:

  • U.S. federal government is indebted

    • Can place a burden on future generations of taxpayers if there’s no set budget

  • When the government runs a budget deficit and issues government debt, it allows current taxpayers to pass the bill for some of their government spending on to future taxpayers

  • Budget deficits represent negative public savings

    • Lower the living standard for future generations

Con: The Government Should Not Balance Its Budget:

  • The problem with government debt is often exaggerated

  • Misleading to view the effects of budget deficits in isolation

  • Critics of budget deficits sometimes assert that the government debt cannot continue to rise forever

    • But it can- the nation’s ability to pay the interest on the government debt grows over time as well

      • Nothing to prevent the government debt from growing forever

      • As population growth and technological progress cause the total income of the U.S. economy to grow over time

23.6: Should the Tax Laws Be Reformed to Encourage Saving?

Pro: The Tax Laws Should Be Reformed to Encourage Saving:

  • When the saving rate is higher, more resources are available for investment in new plant and equipment

    • Larger stock of plant and equipment raises labor productivity, wages, and incomes

Con: The Tax Laws Should Not Be Reformed to Encourage Saving:

  • Tax changes that reduce the taxation of capital income reduce government revenue

    • Lead to a larger budget deficit

  • Economic theory does not give a clear prediction about whether a higher rate of return would increase saving

Chapter 23 - Six Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy

23.1: Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize the Economy?

Pro: Policymakers Should Try to Stabilize the Economy:

  • Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand

    • Including production and employment

  • When aggregate demand is inadequate to ensure full employment

    • Policymakers should boost government spending, cut taxes, and expand the money supply

  • When aggregate demand is excessive, risking high inflation

    • Policymakers should cut government spending, raise taxes, and reduce the money supply

  • Not only do all these points lead to a more stable economy, it benefits everyone

Con: Policymakers Should Not Try to Stabilize the Economy

  • Monetary and fiscal policy do not affect the economy immediately

    • It works with a long lag

  • Monetary policy affects aggregate demand primarily by changing interest rates

    • Affect spendings, residential and business investments

    • But many households and firms set their spending plans in advance

      • Takes time for changes in interest rates to alter the aggregate demand for goods and services

  • Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes

    • In order to make changes in the fiscal policy, a bill must go through congressional committees

      • The house, the senate, and signed by the president

22.2: Should the Government Fight Recessions with Spending Hikes Rather Than Tax Cuts?

Pro: The Government Should Fight Recessions with Spending Hikes:

  • The key to ending recessions is to restore aggregate demand to a level consistent with full employment of the economy’s labor force

Con: The Government Should Fight Recessions with Tax Cuts:

  • Tax cuts have important influence on both aggregate demand and aggregate supply

    • They increase aggregate demand by increasing households’ disposable income

    • If tax reduction takes the form of an expanded investment tax credit, they can induce increased spending on investment and goods

22.3: Should Monetary Policy Be Made by Rule Rather Than by Discretion?

Pro: Monetary Policy Should Be Made by Rule:

  • Discretion in the conduct of monetary policy has two problems

    • Abuse of power

      • Bankers are tempted to use monetary policy to affect the outcome of elections

    • Might lead to more inflation than is desirable

Con: Monetary Policy Should Not Be Made by Rule:

  • Alleged problems with discretion are largely hypothetical

  • Bankers are trustable with their words because they can achieve credibility over time by backing their words with their actions

23.4: Should the Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?

Pro: The Central Bank Should Aim for Zero Inflation:

  • Trade-offs will improve

    • No need for a trade-off between inflation and unemployment

  • A policy that comes with temporary costs and permanent benefits

    • Benefits of zero inflation in the future

  • Zero provides a more natural focal point for policymakers than any other number

Con: The Central Bank Should Not Aim for Zero Inflation:

  • When the economy goes into recession, all incomes do not fall proportionately

    • The fall in aggregate income is concentrated on those workers who lose their jobs

  • Inflation allows for the possibility of negative real interest rates

    • If inflation is zero, real interest rates can never be negative as well

22.5: Should the Government Balance Its Budget?

Pro: The Government Should Balance Its Budget:

  • U.S. federal government is indebted

    • Can place a burden on future generations of taxpayers if there’s no set budget

  • When the government runs a budget deficit and issues government debt, it allows current taxpayers to pass the bill for some of their government spending on to future taxpayers

  • Budget deficits represent negative public savings

    • Lower the living standard for future generations

Con: The Government Should Not Balance Its Budget:

  • The problem with government debt is often exaggerated

  • Misleading to view the effects of budget deficits in isolation

  • Critics of budget deficits sometimes assert that the government debt cannot continue to rise forever

    • But it can- the nation’s ability to pay the interest on the government debt grows over time as well

      • Nothing to prevent the government debt from growing forever

      • As population growth and technological progress cause the total income of the U.S. economy to grow over time

23.6: Should the Tax Laws Be Reformed to Encourage Saving?

Pro: The Tax Laws Should Be Reformed to Encourage Saving:

  • When the saving rate is higher, more resources are available for investment in new plant and equipment

    • Larger stock of plant and equipment raises labor productivity, wages, and incomes

Con: The Tax Laws Should Not Be Reformed to Encourage Saving:

  • Tax changes that reduce the taxation of capital income reduce government revenue

    • Lead to a larger budget deficit

  • Economic theory does not give a clear prediction about whether a higher rate of return would increase saving

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