Ch. 10

Public Opinion↔the aggregate of the public additudes or behavior about the government and politics.

Public opinon polls↔interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population.

George Gallup↔The earliest developer of modern day public opinion polling who played a key role in defining issues of concern to the public and shaping administrative decisons to "speed up the process of democracy"

Public Opinion really began to thrive in the 1930's. Walter Lippmanns seminal work, Public Opinion (1922), prompted much of this growth. His belief that research on public opinion was far too limited. Researchers in a variety of disciplines, including political science, helped Lippmann's call to learn more about public opinon.

Literary Digest: the first magazine to do a Presidential poll in 1916 using straw poll.

Three Problems of the Literary Digest↔Sample (favored middle class republicans by telephone over working class democrats), Timing (mailed out in september-too far away from election), Self-sefection (only 22% responded)

Straw Poll↔an unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies. Was proved to be incredibly inaccurate when predicted Landon would beat Roosevelt 57 to 43, but Roosevelt won 62.5 carrying all but two states.

Sample↔a subset of the whole population selected to be questioned for the purposes of prediction or gauging opinion. Majority of those sampled were telephone owners, which favored the middle class Republicans over the working class Democrats without phones.

Self-sefection↔Only highly motivated individuals sent back survey cars (around 22 percent) unlike modernized electoronic polls wich are much easier.

Gallups scientific method accurately predicted the election results that the Literary Digest could not.

In the 1940's private pill companies had major growth but had a bad setback in 1948 when Gallup and many other pollsters predicted Dewey would defeat Truman.

Pollsters inaccurately predicted Clinton to win over trump by 70% of electoral and popular vote.

In 1952, UMICH and Stanford University researchers began to conduct the American National Election Studies (ANES)↔collects data of the political attitudes and behavior among voters, such as party affiliation, voting practices, and opinions on parties and candiaties.

Phrasing of questions matters.

Push Polls↔Polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against the candidate. These responses typically aren't recorded, they are solely for the purpose of pushing away as many votes for a candidate.

Population↔the entire group of people whose attitudes a researcher wishes to measure.

Random Sampling↔A method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same change of being selected. This is not predictable for voting because it may under or oversample key populations not likely to vote.

Stratified Sampling↔(the most rigorous sampling technique) A variation of random sampling where the population is divided into subgroups and weighted based off demographic characterisitics of the national population.

Most modern polls are conducted via telephone.

The most common form of telephone polls are computerized randomly selected telphone numbers for dialing.

47 percent of Americans use cellphones only, magazines and newspapers target those with landlines.

Pollsters are protected are exempt from federal and state do-not-call lists because it is taking a form of consitutionally protected free speech.

Tracking Polls (1992 presidential election)↔daily basis and continuous surveys that enables a campaign or news orginization to chart a candidates daily or weekly rise or fall in support. Taken via telephone.

Exit Polls↔In-person polls conducted when voters leave selected polling places on Election Day. Generally every tenth voter is selected as they emerge from polling site. The results help predict the outcome of key races and provide independent assesments of why voters supported particular candidates.

Researchers are increasingly using Internet surveys to predict the election outcome and guage opinions on numerous issues important to the American Public. Political researches as well to collect data.

Biannual Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

Website polls are unscientific to allow anyone to weigh in on a topic. They resemble the inconclusiveness of a straw poll.

Analysts pay attention to subgroups in the computerized data such as party, gender, age groups, or political ideology.

Margin of Error↔A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll within statistical parameters. Typically out of every 1,000 people there is a 4 percent error. (+/- 4)

Sampling Error↔Error resulting from the size or the quality of a survey sample. If a pollster fails to sample certain populations, the results may reflect the shortcomings.

Often polls under represent the poor or homeless because pollsters give insufficient attention to representatively sampling these groups.

Political Scientest V.O. Key Jr. cautioned stidents of public opinion to be certain their questions adequately allowed respondents the appropriate range in which they could render their opinions (yes-no, sure-notsure)

Public opinion polls may be innacurate when they attempt to guage attitudes towards issues the public lacks information on. Most academic public opinion polls ask people whether they have given much though tot the issue in the first question. This can exclude around 20% of responses.

The inability to measure intensity can cause error because of emotional ties to issues.

The lack of interest because it does not affect us personally or doesn't involve moral issues can be hard to form an opinion on. This is highly in regards to foreign policy. Most Americans are interested in domestic issues such as healthcare or employment, it has greater impact on their daily lives.

Political Ideology↔the coherent set of values and beliefs about the purpose and scope of government held by groups of individuals.

How ideology affects publiuc opinion↕

Explanation - offers reasons why social and political conditions are the way they are, especially in times of crisis.

Education - provides standards for evaluating social conditions and political institutions and events.

Orientation - provieds individuals with an orientation towards issues and a position within the world

Political Program- help people make political choices and guide their political actions.

Conservative↔one who favoes limited government intervention, particularly in economic affairs. Favor local and state actions over federal. Favor private sectors.

Social Conservative↔One who believes that the government should support and further traditional moral teachings. These voters favor government intervention to regulate sexual and social behavior such as contraceptives, abortion, and same-sex marriage.

Liberal↔One who favors greater government intervention, particularly in econmis affairs and in the provisions of social services. One who seeks to use the governemnt to change the politicalm economic, an dosical status quo and foster the development of equality and the well-being of individuals. Generally oppose the governments efforts to regulate private behavior or infringe on civil rights and liberties.

Moderate↔a relatively centrist view on most political issues.

Statist↔One who believes in extensive government control of personal and economis liberties.

Libertarian↔One who beleives in limited government intereferenct in personal and economic liberties.

Political Socialization↔The process through which individuals acquire their political beliefs and values.

Major Demographics for political values↔Race and ethinicity, gender, age, and religion.

Gender↔Women have held more liberal viewpoints on things such as education, poverty, capital punishments, and the enviroment. Some analysts suggest that womerns more nurturing nature and their role as mothers influence their more liberal attitudes on issues affectin the family or children.

Race and Ethnicity↔The direction and intensity of African American and Hispanic opinions on a variety of issue often are quite different from those of whites. Over time, minorities tend to find less attachment to the government and more blame. A lot are liberals.

Age↔Our view on the proper role in government is affected in which era we were born in and our individual experiences with social, political, and economic forces. Age also affects how citizens view governmental programs. (younger want to relieve student loans and older care about Medicare and Social Security)

Religion↔Many American ideals including hard work and personal responsibility, are widely considered to be rooted in our Nations Protestant heritage. How strictly we practice and follow religious beliefs may also affect political beliefs.

Family↔Communication and receptivity. Early on a child learns of their parent's political values and begins to align with them subconsciously. Biggest influence from age 1-5

Peers↔Peer Pressure

School↔Daily education is an influence to children. Early on schools encourage patriotism (pledge, support for the flag), and the in high school (trips to D.C. or state capitals). At the college level courses are designed in part to provide the information necessary for thinking critically about issues of major political consequence. Since the 1920s it has shown that college students become more liberal each year.

Mass Media↔Alternative resources are more reliable for political knowledge.