Drawdown: Reversing Global Warming - Comprehensive Notes

Introduction to Drawdown

• Drawdown is the future point in time when levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stop climbing and start to steadily decline, on a year-to-year basis. Achieving drawdown means that we are removing more of these gases than we are emitting

• It marks the point where we begin to actively reverse global warming, rather than just slowing its progression.

The Core Problem: Global Warming, Not Climate Change

• Climate change encompasses the various effects and expressions of the underlying issue, whereas the fundamental problem is global warming.

• Global warming results from the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, which trap heat within the Earth's atmosphere, primarily due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes.

Solution: Drawdown

• The key strategies to achieve drawdown are:

  • Preventing additional greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere by transitioning to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and adopting sustainable practices.

  • Actively removing existing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere through methods like reforestation, soil regeneration, and carbon capture technologies.

Project Drawdown

• Project Drawdown is a research effort that identifies, maps, measures, and models the most substantive solutions to address global warming. It provides a detailed analysis of 100 solutions.

• According to Project Drawdown's analysis, 80 of these solutions are currently available and ready to be implemented to achieve drawdown.

• The remaining 20 solutions are considered emerging innovations that have the potential to significantly accelerate progress toward reversing global warming as they are further developed and adopted.

• These solutions are not only environmentally sound but also economically viable, scalable to a global level, and financially feasible.

• The identified solutions act through one or more of the following mechanisms:

  • Replacing energy systems based on fossil fuels with clean, renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower.

  • Reducing overall consumption through improvements in energy efficiency, adoption of sustainable consumption patterns, and behavioral changes.

  • Enhancing biosequestration by capturing and storing carbon in plant biomass and soils through practices like reforestation, afforestation, and regenerative agriculture.

Top 20 Solutions to Reversing Global Warming

• Project Drawdown's top 20 solutions include a diverse range of strategies, such as onshore wind turbines, educating girls, promoting plant-rich diets, and expanding the use of rooftop solar technology.

• The potential impact of these solutions is quantified in gigatons (billions of tons) of equivalent carbon dioxide reduced or sequestered from the atmosphere over a 30-year period.

• Only a fraction (5 out of the top 20) of the leading solutions are directly related to electricity generation, highlighting the importance of addressing other sectors.

• A significant portion (8 out of the top 20) of the solutions are related to the food system, emphasizing the critical role of sustainable agriculture and dietary choices.

The Impact of Food and Land Management

• Decisions that we make about how we produce, purchase, and consume food have substantial implications for the climate.

• How we manage and utilize land resources is another critical factor in addressing global warming.

• Protecting existing forests and wetlands is essential for maintaining carbon sinks, while expanding and creating new carbon sinks can further enhance carbon sequestration.

• A significant number (12 of the top 20) of the solutions are directly linked to land use practices, underscoring the importance of sustainable land management.

Top Solution: Refrigeration Management

• Managing and properly handling refrigerants, specifically hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), is identified as the most impactful solution for reversing global warming.

• HFCs are commonly used as refrigerants in refrigerators and air conditioning systems.

• HFCs have an extremely high global warming potential, with some being hundreds to thousands of times more potent as greenhouse gases compared to carbon dioxide.

• The Montreal Protocol, an international treaty, successfully phased out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), but they were subsequently replaced by HFCs, which still pose a significant climate threat.

• The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, agreed upon in 2016, calls for the phasing out of HFCs and their replacement with natural refrigerants that have lower global warming potential.

• By implementing effective refrigeration management practices and transitioning to alternative refrigerants, it is estimated that 90 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions can be reduced. With the Kigali agreement, this impact could potentially increase to 120-200 gigatons.

Calculation Methodology

• Project Drawdown employed a rigorous data collection and statistical analysis process to establish reasonable ranges for various input parameters.

• Throughout the project, a conservative approach was adopted to ensure the reliability and credibility of the findings.

• Data collected was then used as inputs for detailed models that project future emissions and the potential impact of various solutions.

• Comparisons were made against business-as-usual scenarios to assess the additional benefits of implementing the proposed solutions.

• Both the costs associated with building and operating the proposed solutions, as well as the emissions resulting from their implementation, were carefully calculated.

• The same rigorous methodology was applied to compare different approaches, such as:

  • Assessing the environmental impact of recycling programs versus landfilling.

  • Comparing regenerative agriculture practices to conventional industrial agriculture.

  • Evaluating the benefits of protecting forests versus cutting them down for other land uses.

• To ensure accuracy, the results obtained for different solutions were integrated and adjusted to avoid double-counting and to provide a comprehensive assessment of the overall potential for achieving drawdown.

Specific Solutions

Rooftop Solar

• Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are ranked as the number 10 solution.

• Rooftop solar is applicable in both urban and rural settings and can be implemented in countries with both high and low-income levels.

• Besides reducing emissions, rooftop solar provides additional safety and energy security benefits.

Tropical Forests

• Protecting degraded land in the tropics and allowing natural regeneration is ranked as the number 5 solution.

• Trees play a crucial role as carbon sinks, absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis.

Regenerative Agriculture

• Regenerative agriculture focuses on restoring and enhancing soil health and productivity.

• These practices increase crop yields and improve water retention in the soil.

• Regenerative agriculture benefits both smallholder farmers and large-scale farming operations.

• By promoting carbon sequestration in the soil, it helps bring carbon back to the land.

• This approach contrasts with modern agricultural practices that often involve intensive tillage, monocropping, and the use of synthetic fertilizers, which degrade the land.

Plant-Rich Diets

• Plant-rich diets emphasize healthy food consumption and reduced meat intake, especially in wealthier countries.

• It is important to address existing imbalances, as low-income countries often face insufficient caloric and protein intake.

• Shifting towards plant-rich diets has been identified as the number 4 solution to reversing global warming.

Reduced Food Waste

• It is estimated that approximately one-third of all food produced globally is not consumed.

• Wasted food contributes to approximately 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

• In low-income countries, food waste primarily occurs early in the supply chain due to challenges related to infrastructure and storage.

• In developed countries, food is more often wasted at the end of the supply chain by markets and consumers, ultimately ending up in landfills that emit methane.

• Preventing food waste is ranked as the number 3 solution.

The Food System as a Whole

• By implementing regenerative agriculture practices, adopting plant-rich diets, and reducing food waste, it would be possible to produce enough food on existing farmland to feed the world's growing population a healthy diet now and until 2050 and beyond.

• This would eliminate the need to convert forests into agricultural land for food production. The solutions to reversing global warming are the same solutions to addressing food insecurity.

Family Planning and Education

• Providing men and women with the right to make informed choices about the timing, size, and spacing of their families can lead to a reduction in the estimated global population by 2050.

• A reduced population would result in decreased demand for resources, energy, and emissions.

• Ensuring equal access to quality education for girls is an integral part of family planning efforts.

• Educating girls and providing family planning services together is considered the number one solution to reversing global warming, with the potential to reduce approximately 120 billion tons of greenhouse gases.

Is Drawdown Possible?

• Yes, achieving drawdown is possible, but it requires the widespread implementation of all 80 solutions identified by Project Drawdown.

• There are no silver bullets or single solutions that can solve the problem on their own. While the top solutions have a significant impact, every solution, no matter how small, contributes to the overall goal.

• Implementing these solutions offers cascading benefits to human and planetary well-being.

Co-benefits of Solutions

• Transitioning to renewable electricity sources provides clean, abundant access to energy for all.

• Promoting plant-rich diets and reducing food waste contributes to a healthier global population with sufficient access to food.

• Empowering family planning and educating girls advances human rights, gender equality, economic improvement, and freedom of choice and justice.

• Adopting regenerative agriculture practices restores soil health, benefits farmers, and sequesters carbon back into the land.

• Protecting ecosystems safeguards biodiversity and maintains planetary health.

Costs and Savings

• Implementing all 80 solutions would require an investment of approximately 29 trillion over 30 years (about 1 trillion per year).

• Given that the global GDP exceeds 80 trillion annually, this investment is economically feasible.

• The estimated savings resulting from implementing these solutions is 74 trillion over 30 years.

• This would result in net savings of 44 trillion.

Conclusion

• Achieving drawdown is not only possible but also economically beneficial.

• Implementing these solutions will transform our current exploitative system into a restorative and regenerative one.

• We need to rethink our global goals and move beyond sustainability towards regeneration in order to reverse global warming.