Kirk 1996, Demographic Transition Theory 

The Forerunners

  • Demographic transition model: classification of populations differentiated by different combinations of fertility and mortality
  • Thompson:   * Group A: falling rates of increase + potential population decline   * Group B: both birth and deaths had fallen, but death rates had declined earlier and more rapidly than death rates   * Group C: neither birth/death rates were under control     * Classified as Malthusian
  • Landry:   * 3 stages of population development     * Primitive     * Intermediate     * Contemporary
  • Carr-Saunders:   * Small family system and its causes

The Demographic Transition Theory

  • Notestein   * Thought Western + Central European populations would peak in 1950 and decline after
  • Critique: too much attention to socio-economic factors

The Historical Record

  • Criticism   * Large differences in pre-modern fertility were not taken into account in the transition theory!   * Mortality decline always preceded fertility decline → not true   * Actual decline in European regions was not tied closely to socio-economic modernization

The European Fertility Project

  • Initial fertility reduction
  • Family limitation was not practiced before the fertility decline began
  • Family planning programs = irreversible process
  • Cultural setting influence the onset and spread of fertility decline
  • Transition theory has influenced how the United Nations and the World Bank have based their population forecasts on the assumption of standard transition
  • The transition has occurred under diverse socio-economic conditions   * Transition is not a necessary pre-condition for development

The Search for Causality: Mortality

  1. Rising incomes + development of the modern state → reductions in mortality
  2. Revolution in medicine → reduction in child mortality
  3. Increase in the use of antibiotics → reduction in epidemic and contagious diseases
  • Feature of mortality + fertility transitions: increasingly faster tempo
  • Mortality decline = cause of fertility decline   * Promotes economic productivity

The Search for Causality: Economic Theory

  • Economic theory   * Pre-modern high fertility = rational behavior   * Fertility decline = based on rational choices
  • Critique: didn’t take into account culture

The Search for Causality: Caldwell’s Restatement

  • Integrate economic, cultural, and institutional theories of fertility decline
  • Pre-transitional fertility behavior = rational, only within the framework established by social ends

Conclusion

  • Existence of homeostasis in historical populations   * This view could lead to a better understanding of what post-transitional levels of fertility are likely to be
  • Population aging   * Will lead to pronatalist measures by governments
  • Old guidelines are no longer appropriate
  • Much more attention will have to be given to raising fertility levels

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