Political Science: Foundations of International Relations

Intro

• Midterm:

  • MCQ

  • Reading 15: Reading Guide - Readings Folder.

• Essay:

Interests, Ideologies, and Institutions in Foreign Policy

Types of Foreign Policies

• Foreign Policies? What type of policies are they?

  • Policies towards other countries, ex. Immigration, defense, economy, HR, environment, public health, crime.

  • National Security

  • Alliances and International Orgs (NATO)

  • Bilateral relations

  • International trade.

  • Foreign aid, humanitarian assistance.

  • Immigration, refugees.

  • Issues that overlap w/ domestic issues, ex. Public Health, Environment, Crime etc.

• Determining FP on Different Issues

  • What factors determine country’s foreign policy on different issues?

  • Does which party is in power matter?

    • Parties do matter but not about everything. Ex. Trump and Free Trade, negotiation to maintain national interest and the strategy and tactic will be similar.

    • Due to:

      1. Common national interests (ex. Asteroids)

      2. Inertia, path dependence.

      3. External commitments such as treaties, trade deals, alliances, and international organizations.

         • National Defense for example, Canada spends less than our NATO commitment because we do really need defense.

Interests and Ideologies in Canadian and US Foreign Policy

• Parties and FP

  • Some aspects of FP is decided by ideology/philosophy

  • Which party is in power matter.

    • Ex. Trump will be different, Republican vs Democratic.

  • Therefore, we must look at foreign policy ideology or beliefs of different parties.

• Ideologies and FP

  • Different leaders from same party can have different FP.

  • Because parties are made up of different ideological factions.

  • Which faction is dominant matters.

  • Therefore, we must look at the foreign policy ideology of different factions/leaders.

  • Ex. George W. Bush and George H. Bush and Donald Trump all Republicans but all different.

• FP Ideologies

  • 7 Main FP Ideologies

  • Range from Left to Right

    1. Left: Progressivism, (Left Dems AOC, NDP, Trudeau)

    2. Centre-Left: Liberal internationalism (Centirs Dems ex. Biden, Trudeau)

    3. Centre: Realism (Bush Sr, Peter Mackay (Red Tori- now less influential))

    4. Centre Right: Neoconservatives (Bush Jr, Stephen Harper),

    5. Centre Right: Libertarianism (strongly believe in free market economics) (Rand Paul, Libertarian Party)

    6. Right: Social Conservatism- ex. Religious Rights (Mike Pence)

    7. Right: Conservative Nationalism - populist conservative (Trump)

• FP Spectrum

  • foreign policy preferences are a compromise between different ideological factions.

  • Green Party:

    • Progressivism

  • NDP:

    • Progressivism

    • Liberal

  • Bloc Quebecois

    • Liberal

    • Progressivism

  • Liberal:

    • Liberal

    • Realism

    • Progressivism

  • Conservative

    • Neocon

    • Linertrain

    • realist

    • socon

    • nationalist

  • Peoples Party:

    • nationalist

Key Institutions in IR and Foreign Policy

• Constraints on FP

  • parties seek to promote FP based on ideology

  • Constraints to this:

    • Events: events happen that can distract parties from their agenda e.g. Trump Election and Pandemic.

    • Domestice Reaction: public opinion and need to get re-elected, lobbying by diasporas (Groups of people).

    • Economic Dependence: Dependent on US and China. Business community often lobbies for good relations.

• Predicting a Country’s FP

  1. Is there a common national interest on the specific issue?

  2. Which party is in power?

  3. Which faction or factions are in power in that party?

  4. What are their beliefs on the issue/which issues do they prioritize

  5. What domestic and foreign constraints do they face in promoting their beliefs.

Liberal and Progressive Approaches to FP

Liberal Internationalist Approach

• Centre-left approach to FP

• Supported by:

  1. Centre-Left Dems, Biden, Obama etc.

  2. Left (Social Liberal) side of Lib Party

     • Support Lib internationalism

  3. Moderate side of the NDP.

     • “NDP, Libs in a hurry”

• Blue/Business Liberals vs. Social Liberals.

• Supports:

  1. Inter institutions and multilateralism- negotiation w/ multiple countries like World Trade Org (Ex. UN, WHO, UNDP)

     • Opposite conservative nationalist

  2. promotion of center-left values and policies.

     • Interventionist approach for economics, redistributions, unions etc.

  3. Constructive engagement- engage in trade as a way to benefit economy and change their behavior. ex. China trade and culture exchange.

     • Trade and interdependence- reduces the likelihood of war by being interdependent. ex. US-China- war would lead to serious econ hardship.- ex. McDonalds Index.

     • sign trade agreements.

  4. Diplomacy over military force

     • more hesitant to use military intervention

• HISTORICAL Background

  • Start; Classical econ liberlaism (Adam Smith, Mill, Coben, Ricardo) who supported international trade:

    • econ efficiency and mutual gains; win-win situations.

    • promoting peace through econ inter-dependence and the transmission of lib idea.

      • Constructive engagement- Like China and U.S

  • Immanuel Kant, “Perpetual Peace” 1795

    • Argued that:

      • democracies are less likely to fight each other- why?

        1. Same values.

        2. Choose leaders- leaders accountable and they wont want to go to war.

           • Only wars of necessity not choice.

      • an international federation of states would promote peace.

        • Like the United Nations.

  • Classical Lib idea led to key principles of Lib Internationalism:

    1. Trade and interdependence

    2. Dem promotion- why? belief that if every country is a democracy there would be no more wars.

       • Francis Fukeyama, “End of History”- after the Cold War we have tried every system and we landed on a handful that works.- Democracy and Capitalism

       • Liberal believe that Democracy and Capitalism are universal principles that we are ultimately working towards.

    3. International institutions, cooperation, and diplomacy over military force.

• LI Approach

  • LI principles were promoted by the post WW1 idealists-

  • President Woodrow Wilson’s ‘14 Pint’ speech in 1918 (end of WW1): Articulated many Lib internationalist principles.

    1. create League of Nations

    2. Sovereign equality (all states equal), 1 vote for EVERY state

    3. Anti-imperialism and an end to colonialism (empires must breakup).

       • Canada didn’t have department of foreign affairs'’ at the time

  • 1930’s Great Depression (Great Recession) led to rise of Keynesian (John Maynard Keynes) economics and more interventionist mixed economics

    • 1930’s Undermined free market economics support- cause LIB I’s to promote mixed economies (Gov interventions)

  • Promotion of center-left economy became part of LIB I.

  • Collapse of League of Nations and WW2 tempered Wilsonian idealism

  • Recognition that states were not equal and that great powers mattered

    • system of treaties and inter law would not work w/o it.

  • New UN included Security Council of great powers.

    • 5 permanent members w/ the Veto powers.

    • UN sanctioned wars ex. Gulf War.

  • After Cold War 1989 (Fall of the Berlin Wall Germany and Russia), LI evolved again with the rise of Human development and human security agendas.

  • Concepts came from the UN Development Programme’’s 1990 and 1994 Human Development Reports.

    • Created concept of HUMAN development and security.

  • Focus of development from economy to HUMANS.- idealistic but w/ practical means

  • Developing in way w/ no middle class- average looks good but not a good situation.

    • Distribution not just growth.- reflects mixed economies and center-left ideas.

  • Human security focus of ‘root causes’ and security threats to people as well as to state sovereignty.

    • Ex. “Campaign to Ban Landmines”- old security would want to get rid of heavy conventional weapons (threats to States), Human security approach- what is killing the PEOPLE.

  • Shift to focus from states to people led view that state sovereignty should not be absolute of states failed to protect their own people.

  • Underpinned key LI projects such as the ICC and R2P

    • responsibility to invade militarily during times of genocide. e. Rwanda

    • If States label something a genocide then they HAVE the responsibility to go fight it.

  • LI prefers using “soft power” where possible:

    1. diplomacy and persuasion

    2. lead by example; ex. increasing foreign aid to put pressure on other countries to do the same.

    3. constructive engagement through trade, aid and exchanges

  • However, will sometimes use sanctions and military force as last resorts or for R2P.

    • e.g NATO support for Ukraine.

Progressive Approach

• Left approach to foreign approach

• Includes social dems and after left socialists

• Supported by:

  • progressives in DEM party, Lib party, NDP, and Labor parties in the UK and AUS

    • Green Party is also probably progressive

    • Bernie, AOC, Jagmeet Singh.

  • Unions, environmental groups, social justice groups, civil rights groups.

• Supports:

  • social justice, redistributive economic policies/foreign aid.

    • aide less econ independent countries.

  • human, worker, gender, LGBTQ+, civil rights

  • anti-imperialism, anti-colonialism and anti-racism

    • “The Woke Agenda”

  • Restraint, disarmament, anti-war.

    • more against military force than Lib Is.

• Approach:

  • started w/ early socialists who viewed imperialism as an outgrowth of capitalism need for new markets and resources

    • Marx, Lenin (Karl Marx in a hurry), More intervention in economy than Lib I’s.

      • Lenin wanted to leap frog the Capitalism steps and the proletariat and socialism to communism- the Russian Revolution.

  • This led to colonialism and wars between the imperial powers.

  • After WW2, progressive approach manifested in mass social movement of the 60s and the 70s

  • Peace movement

    • anti Vietnam war

    • nuclear disarmament

  • Environmental, Women’s (reproductive health) and Civil Rights (MLK) movements.

  • Anti-colonials national liberation, revolutionary movements in developing countries

    • Che Guevara- Cuban revolutionary behind Fidel Castro

  • Drew on ‘dependency theory’ which viewed trade neocolonialism where North exploited South

    • Dependence Theory, critique on the Liberal notion that everyone could ‘win’

      • More value added when you manufacture (the North) the raw goods (South)- more money flow from South to North — Never going to develop

  • After Cold War, progressivism manifested in anti-globalization movement- anti free trade

    • Globalization, hurt workers, good for business.

  • After 9/11, focus returned to peace and opposition to the Iraq War

  • Then, Occupy Wall Street during 2008.

  • Some cases, progressive approach is more about critique and idealism than alternatives

  • However, growing influence of Progressives in Dem Party has led to attempts to flesh out specific policies.

  • New Progressive Approach emerged from:

    • Sanders and Warren campaigns

    • books by progressive academics

    • articles by progressive journalists/activists

    - On national security, advocate for restraint to limit military spending and wars.

    • A last resort.

    -More focus on root causes, conflict prevention and arms control

    • Social programs etc.

    -Seeks to promote left values and policies through diplomacy, aid, and sanctions not military force

    -More focus on DEM allies and International Orgs (IOs)

    • Support for UN, ICC, peacekeeping

    • didn’t support dictators e.g cut ties and ban arms sales to Saudi Arabia

      • ex. Don’t’ sell military equipment to Saudi Arabia

    • more critical of Israel

    • avoid expanding NATO membership

    • more multilateralism w/ DM allies to pressure Russia and China

    -Progressive Trade:

    • only support trade deal that are good for American workers.

    • Minimum labor and environmental standards

      • Agreements to minimum standards- wherever you go in NA the standards will be the same, all the benefits of free trade w/o the pressures and problems of this.

    • less trade w/ authoritarian countries

    -Regulate Big Business

    • target tax heavens

    • promote corporate social responsibility overseas.

Conservative Approaches to FP

Neoconservative Approach

• “Defense Hawks”- Aggressive found within Anglo-American conservative parties.

• Favor- strong military and aggressive FP

  • Neo conservatives want to USE the military as opposed to other conservatives.

• Influential during Bush Jr administration- Promoted Iraq invasion

APPROACH

• Started w/ strong anti-commie during Cold War- Warsaw Pact

• Formalized as an ideology by conservative author Irving Kristol

• FP should PROMOTE US and Western values.

  • In favor of regime changes- the Iraq War for example.

• Believe that Democracy and Capitalism are better.

• Need for “Moral Clarity” and taking sides rather than neutrality.

  • Support trad Western allies including Israel

  • Oppose dictators and rivals

  • good vs evil view of the world. '

• “You are either with us or against, there is no neutrality”- Bush

• Capitalism is good but not perfect - Two Cheers for Capitalism

• Morality and security must trump capitalism when necessary

  • ex. Regulating Pornography because it is “immoral”

  • ex. Not trading w/ China because the trade would make them more powerful.

• Support trade that benefits US and Allies

• Avoid trade w/ rivals such as China

• US should be the sole superpower and use power for good- benevolent hegemonic power.

• Strong belief in the power of military to create change

• Supports interventionism and regime change

• Supports law and order policies domestically.

• Belief in American Exceptionalism

• US, global cop- shouldn’t be subject to same rules- They shouldn’t have to ask for permission to go to war.

• UN/ICC/ multilateralism hurts sovereignty and ‘moral clarity’

  • Too many cooks in the kitchen

• Interventions should be unilateral or ‘coalitions of the willing’

• Elite not populist

• Religious and social conservatives but NOT fundamentalists’

• Civic nationalism (Proud of your country) and patriotism not ethnic or xenophobic nationalism (Belief Trump is anti-immigration not pro America)

• Supports immigration

• Many never-Trumpers are neocons- belief that Trump is not a moral person and disagree w/ their policies.

• Bush Administration

  • Project for a New American Century- key positions in Bush administration

  • Used 9/11 to promote Iraq invasion

• Led to the BUSH DOCTRINE: Neoconservatism

  • democracy promo through force

  • regime change not containment

  • unilateralism not multilateralism

    • Problems of Iraq war and shift to Trump hurt their influence.

• How do you pick what regimes to go after?

  • Who is threatening their allies.

  • Who can they ACTUALLY fight.

• Continues to advocate for muscular FP

  • Regime change in Iran to support Israel

  • Tough stance on China NK and Russia

  • Strong support for Ukraine

  • Many, not all, are anti- Trump.

• Harper Conservatives leaned this way.

• Support for Iraq war when in opposition

• Strong rhetorical support for military

• Strong support for Israel

• Anti-UN, pro-US

Conservative Nationalist Approach

APPROACH:

• AKA, “populist conservatism” or “Paleo-conservatism”

  • Populism can be tethered to any political ideology.

• Represents white, working class from rural, small town, and rust belt (Midwest Manufacturing) America- Core Supporters

• Nationalism is the foreign policy of populism.

• Opposes the “globalist” agenda of elites and is:

  • anti-immigration/nativist

  • anti-interventionist/pro-isolationist

  • anti-UN- see them as being elite driven (policies that hurt the working class)

  • anti- foreign aid.

• Traced back to US isolationism a nd protectionism after WW1 and Great Depression

  • Smoot-Hawley tariffs helped to end globalization 1.0 - during the Great Depression

  • Isolationist “America First Committee” kept US out of WW2 for the first 2 years. - Why are we fighting all these wars?

  • US did not join League of Nations

  • immigration quotas.

• Pat Buchanan’s 1992 anti-trade, anti immigration, anti establishment “America First’ run for Republican nomination

• Ross Perot’s anti NAFTA third party campaign

• Trump represents the return of conservative nationalism

• Has attracted many blue collar workers, particularly men who felt betrayed by Democrats.

  • E.g Obama promised to renegotiate NAFTA but didn’t

• Views trade as bad for workers.

• Blue collar jobs get exported overseas.

• Jobs at home have lower pay, no benefits, and no job security

• Supports econ nationalism and trade renegotiations.

• Trump has been economic nationalist through anti-trade protectionism

  • pulled out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

  • renegotiated NAFTA

  • trade war w/ China

  • threatening large tariffs today.

• Views immigration as bad for workers

• Views immigrants as:

  • taking jobs

  • depressing wages

  • burdening social programs

  • threatening cultural identity

• Leads to xenophobia/nativism- a cultural threat

• Foreign interventions and entanglements are bad for workers

• Too much cost, allies free ride- 40K US soldiers in SK

• Support strong military but not overseas bases, F aid, and endless wars.

• Leans towards isolationism.

• Environmentalism as bad for workers

• Often views environmental policies as anti-resource jobs and anti-rural

  • e.g coal and pipeline jobs lost due to climate policies.

• Anti-UN and multilateralism

• Believes that:

  • UN hurts US sovereignty

  • UN is pro-environment and anti-resource jobs

  • UN is pro-refugee/immigration

  • UN is pro-foreign aid

  • UN is anti-guns.

The Social/Religious Conservative Approach

• Referred to as “socons’ or the ‘religious right’

• Primarily include white evangelical Christians and conservative Catholics

• Many are rural voters

• Support:

  • pro-life ‘traditional family’ policies

  • protection of Christian and rural culture

• FP priorities are pro-Israel and anti-UN

• Pro-Israel view relates to biblical prophecy

  • Supported Iraq war and anti-Iran policies

• UN is seen as secular, anti-Christian, and anti-Israel

Realist and Libertarian Approach to FP

Midterm:

• 1 Hour

• 50 MCQ

• 35 on Lecture

  • Know which key individuals, concepts, events, writings, and policy views are associated w/ each FP approach

  • Know differences between the approaches on key issues.

  • Try writing out notes in short-form by hand.

  • On blank page, write all you can remember for each approach.

• Final 15 Readings

  • Look at points on the Reading Guide

  • Do whole reading

  • Don’t leave all readings until last week

  • look for points that make good multiple choice questions

• Natural Science Centre 110/120K @ 2PM

The Realist Approach

• the FP policy of moderate conservatism

• Favors strong military for deterrence (peace through strength) but restraint in using it.

• Criticizes neocons and liberals for trying to promote values abroad.

  • They do not believe that promoting values really works.

  • Argue that FP should only focus on a country’s interest not their values.

  • They believe value spreading doesn’t really work.

• Like mod cons- they prize tradition, hierarchy (they are realistic about how power works), order and incremental change.

• Both share a skepticism about the possibility of social progress at domestic and international levels.

  • Ex. Value spreading is not realistic.

  • Ex. Liberal idea that we are always progressing.

• Most realists have been moderate republicans

  • Ex. George Bush Sr. and Colin Powell

History:

• Emerged as a formal approach in academia around WW2

  • E.H Carr’s Twenty Year Crisis

  • Hans Morgenthau’s Politics Among Nations

  • Classical realists critiqued early liberalism and League of Nations- couldn’t prevent war—→ Collapsed then WW2

  • Saw them as too idealistic and ignoring the importance of national interest and power.

• During the Cold War- dominant approach to US FP

• NATO alliance and nuclear weapons for deterrence of Soviet Union

• Realists advocated containment of communism instead of neocon rollback.

  • Try not to use the Military

1990 Gulf War: A Realist War

• Iraq dictator Saddam Hussein invades Kuwait (For Oil)

• US and Allies push Iraq out

• Do NOT invade Iraq itself or overthrow Saddam as neocons wanted.

• Realists supported the 1990 Gulf War as containment.

Approach

• Republican Party then shifted rightward- since Bush Sr. Moderate to Neo Cons

• Then cons nationalist under Trump

• Many realists left the Republican Party.

2003 Iraq War

• Academic realists like Stehen Walt and John Mearsheimer strongly opposed the 2003 Iraq War

  • thought war was more about neocon ideology not national interests

  • argued that Saddam could be contained and deterred'

  • predicted war would lead to insurgency and hatred of the US

• Trump supporters called him a FP realist

• Realists sought to deliberately distance themselves from the nationalism of Trump

• Advocated

  • national interests not nationalism- Trump is advocating for US isolationism.

  • restraint not isolationism

  • trade and immigration okay as long as it serves in favor of national interests

• On national Security, advocates for restraint not internationalism

  • do not promote values— leads to backlash

  • military spending for deterrence not intervention

  • containment and deterrence not regime change.

• Argue that the power and interests of great powers must be recognized and they must be allowed regional ‘spheres of influence’

• Argue that NATO’s eastward expansion caused Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

• If rivals get too powerful, US should contain/balance them by supporting regional allies as with China.

• Realists are OK with nuclear proliferation-

• Believe Cold War demonstrated that nuclear deterrence works

• Iran, NK etc. are rational and can be deterred better option than war to stop them getting nucs.

The Libertarian Approach

• Centre right approach

• Referred to as economic ‘neoliberalism’ in academic literature.

• Supported by:

  • Libertarians in conservative, Republican and libertarian parties

  • free market think tanks and advocacy groups.

• Supports:

  • free market economics and less government - push it to the extreme

  • civil liberties, freedom of speech

  • freedom on social issues such as LGBTQ and abortion

  • freedom on gun rights

  • restraint in FP/ military- overlap/lean toward isolationism

History

• Traced back to free market economists- Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman

• Pro- business, anti-unions

• More antigovernmental version of free market economics than Adam Smith and classical liberals.

• Promotes less, taxes, social programs.

National Security

• Advocate for restraint to limit military and security spending

• Oppose ‘national security state’ (e.g Surveillance) as hurts civil liberties, privacy etc

• Both increase taxes and government.

Immigration

• Support immigration for individual freedom and it provides worker for business

• Opposes foreign aid in the same way it opposes economic redistribution at home- it comes down to the costs.

The “Restraint Coalition”

• in 2019, realists, libertarians, and progressives form think tank to promote a ‘restraint’ approach to national security

• The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

• Excludes how issue coalitions form within and across parties.

Canadian Foreign Policy

February 3rd - Canadian Foreign Policy

1. Post-WWII Canadian foreign policy

2. Parties, ideology, and Canadian foreign policy

3. Key institutions of Canadian foreign policy

Post WWII Canadian Foreign Policy

• After WWII, Canada’s FP reflected a mix of liberal internationalism and realism

• Liberal internationalism of the Liberal Party

• Realism/moderate conservatism of the Progressive Conservative Party

  • Tended to adhere to a realist approach

• Canada was a ‘middle power’ which meant international alliances, organizations, and cooperation were necessary to offset great powers

• Was supported by both Liberals and Conservatives

• Realists recognized that, for middle powers, internationalism was necessary

United Nations

• Created after WWII by Allied powers to promote peace

• Inter-national (between states) not supra-national organization (above states)

  • UN doesn’t have much power over its members, not a world government

• General Assembly

  • Parliament of all nations, can propose motions/resolutions to problems

  • One country = one vote (sovereign equality)

  • Doesn’t have much influence

• Security Council

  • Slightly more binding, deals with national security issues 

  • 5 permanent members (US, UK, France, China, Russia)

  • 10 rotating members

• UN works similarly to a government:

  • Funds and Programmes, Specialized Agencies, Related Organizations

  • Kind of like government departments (World Food Programme, UN environment program, WHO)

  • Don’t enforce anything but do provide advisories

Canada and UN Peacekeeping

• Canadian Liberal internationalist approach developed by Minister of External Affairs Lester B. Pearson

• Strong support for international institutions and diplomacy

• Wins Nobel Peace Prize for creating 1st UN peacekeeping force during 1956 Suez Crisis

  • Missions created to keep peace and avoid conflict escalation

  • Countries selected for each individual mission and will be sent there under the UN

• The ‘blue berets’: distinguishes UN peacekeepers

NATO

• North Atlantic Treaty Organization

• Key western military alliance between US, Canada and western Europe

• Created during Cold War as deterrence against Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact (Soviet Union equivalent to NATO - SU and Eastern Europe)

NORAD

• North American Aerospace Defense

• US-Canada alliance to defend airspace

• Monitors North American airspace for aircraft, missiles

• Dispatches fighters to intercept

Five Eyes

• Intelligence sharing alliance

• Includes Canada, US, UK, Australia, New Zealand

• Emphasis is on SIGINT

  • Signals Intelligence (electronic intelligence monitoring)

  • HUMINT: human intelligence (spies)

Parties, Ideologies, and Canadian FP

• Progressive Minister Brian Mulroney

  • Opposed South African apartheid when US and UK wouldn’t

  • Acid rain treaty with US and UN climate change convention

  • Sent CF-18s to 1991 Gulf War under UN authorization

• Growing influence of libertarianism in Canadian business community and PC party

• Mulroney promoted more free market approach

  • Canada-US Free Trade Agreement

  • Eventually expanded into NAFTA to include Mexico

• Shift back to liberal internationalism under Liberal PM Jean Chretien and Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axworthy

  • Didn’t participate in 2003 Iraq war

  • Support for Kyoto Protocol on climate change

  • Axworthy’s human security agenda: landmines ban, ICC, R2P

• 9/11: border security slows down trade

• Business community wanted more North American economic and security integration

• Proposed a ‘Security and Prosperity Partnership’ for Canada, the US, and Mexico

• Wasn’t accepted

• Progressive Conservatives became Conservative Party under PM Stephen Harper

• Reflected decline of moderates/realists

• Foreign policy was a mix of neoconservative, social conservative, and libertarian approaches

• Harper government FP reflect neoconservative, social conservative, and libertarian approaches

  • Supported Iraq war in opposition and more pro-US and pro-Israel

  • anti-UN, China, Iran

  • Pro-free trade, anti-climate treaties

  • Defunded abortion in foreign aid

• Trudeau government FP reflects a mix of liberal and progressive approaches

  • Increased refugees and immigration

  • Progressive trade agenda

  • Paris climate accord

  • Support for UN

  • Feminist foreign policy on aid, etc.

  • Support for Ukraine

• Pierre Poilievre beat moderate conservatives to become new leader of Conservative Party

• What would we expect a Poilievre foreign policy to look like?

• Like Trudeau, events will constrain

Foreign Policy Institutions

Global Affairs Canada

• Led by Minister of Foreign Affairs

• Develops and implements foreign policy

• International negotiations

• Runs diplomats and embassies

• Equivalent of US State Department led by Secretary of State

• Also includes Minister of International Trade

  • Similar to US Trade Representative

  • Trade policy, negotiations and assistance to companies

  • And minister of International Development

    • Foreign aid, development and poverty reduction, humanitarian assistance

Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS)

• Security not foreign intelligence

• Defensive not offensive

• Thus, does not conduct HUMINT (human intelligence) abroad except in limited circumstances

• Not equivalent to CIA

Central Intelligence Agency

• 3 factions of CIA:

• Directorate of Intelligence

  • Provides analysis

• National Clandestine Service

  • HUMINT

  • Surveillance, spies

• Special Activities Center

  • Paramilitary operations

  • Political, cyber and influence operation

The Tools of FP

Diplomacy and Aid

• The use of dialogue and negotiations among diplomats (The Foreign Service) - ambassadors and diplomats usually assigned through large donations to political parties

• Negotiating agreements, treaties and international law.

• Summits among leaders:

  • bilateral between 2 countries

  • multilateral through international conferences, alliances, and organizations. Ex. Munich Security Conference, World Economic Forum, The G7- Group of 7, the “top” 7 economies.

Back Channel Diplomacy

• AKA, “Track Two Diplomacy”

• Secret negotiations between states who don’t want to be seen negotiating with ‘enemy’- at least until it is all over and is ready to be announced.

• Can be conducted by lower level diplomats or unofficial (Business people for example) ambassadors - plausible deniability (no accountability)

Public Diplomacy

• Stat officials lobby politicians and influencers- lobbying based on public opinion.

  • Canada’s lobbying on NAFTA- Maple Charm Offensive, we needed more leverage, Public Diplomacy, think the way business or activist lobbyists think. Ex. Talk with swing states, Republican governor that can make an appeal to Trump

• States hire lobbying firms to lobby and run public relations campaigns.

  • Saudis and others in US.

Foreign Aid

• Military Aid: Ukraine- weapons, ammo.

• Democracy Assistance: Help run new democracies- elections, free media etc.

• Official Development Assistance (ODA): help develop economically.- Trump wants to shut down USAID

• Humanitarian Assistance: Immediate short term aid, natural disasters.

Foreign Aid and Soft Power

• In addition to helping, others, foreign aid is a form of “soft power”

• Promotes national interests and values through ‘carrots’

• Combines with public diplomacy

• As US cuts aid, China expands to gain influence.

Sanctions

• Sanctions are a punishment, short of military force, that a state or states can impose on another state.

• Can be implemented bilaterally or multilaterally-ex. Sanctions against Russia by many Western countries.

• Are controversial when they hurt population rather than government.

Economic Sanctions

• Done to threaten/punish to get target country to change policy.

• Targeted Tariffs

  • tax on imports from target country.

  • E.g Trump and Columbia tariff

• Cuts to Foreign Aid

  • E.g Trump and Jordan aid threat.

• Import Restrictions

  • E.g China banning imports of some Canadian products to hurt economy.

• Export Restrictions- Not allowing the sale of resources in specific country.

  • E.g cutting oil exports to raise prices

  • Russia has done to Europe and Canada could to US.

• Asset Freeze:

  • Prevent leaders/wealthy from target country from accessing their funds in foreign bank accounts.

  • Sometimes it is the assets of the state or individuals.

• Restrict Financial Transactions:

  • Prevents target country and firms from using international banking and/or currency exchange.

Secondary Sanctions

• Sanctions against countries and firms that don’t comply with sanctions on a target state

• Aim is to make them obey your sanctions

• E.g US sanctions against Huawei for dealing with Iran.

Magnitsky Act Sanctions

• Sanctions that target specific individuals for HR abuses or corruption. (In honour of Sergei Magnitsky who was a Russian whistle blower who died in Russian Polic custody)

  • Travel or Financial Bans

• Named in honor of Sergei Magnitsky who was a Russian whistle blower who died in Russian Police custody

Denial Sanctions

• Aim is to deny access to specific technical knowledge or products rather than to punish.

  • exports bans of military or nuclear goods

  • technical assistance bans- some scientists and engineers are not allowed to work in certain countries.

  • research cooperation bans

Diplomatic Sanctions

• Aims is to punish in a more symbolic way

• Expel target state diplomats- persona non grata

• Diplomatic boycotts

  • boycott Olympics

  • withdraw ambassador/close embassy, ex. Canada closed embassy in Iran

• Revoke memberships

  • E.g Russia kicked out of G8 for Crimea.

Generally for sanctions to be effective, great powers have to be involved.

Gray Zone Operations

• Use of coercive and often covert tactics that are short of overt military operations

• More aggressive than normal competition and spying

• Often covert and deniable- ex. Chinses boats cutting of telecommunications, destroying fiberoptic cables, assassinations,

Influence Operations

• Covert disinformation campaigns to influence public, opinion in targeted states.

• Contrasts with more overt public diplomacy.

• Russia’s Internet Research Agency has been the most active.

• NATO countries have created influence operation capabilities to counter. ex. Forces in Latvia, Russians run operations against it.

• Social media is key channel

• Have sought to:

  • inflame divisions

  • influence election (e.g US, Brexit)

  • undermine support for NATO in other countries, e.g Russia trying to promote the idea the Ukraine started the War.

  • politicize Covid-19 to increase its spread.

Cyber Attacks

• Kinetic Cyber Attacks

  • Have a physical effect

    • denial of service- attack to shut down website

    • Stuxnet- virus that destroyed Iranian uranium centrifuges

• Non-Kinetic Cyber Attacks

  • Hacking to obtain information for black mail, leaks, etc.

  • Different from influence ops.

Election Interference

• Targets elections or individual candidates

• Occurs most through ‘influence operations’

• Also through:

  • diaspora intimidation (British diaspora, Ukrainian Diaspora), go to the former citizens to force people to do things.

  • secretly funding candidates

  • non-kinetic cyber

Limited Military Operations

• Military operations that are non-combat or limited combat short of conventional war.

• Military used to assert territorial claims

• Sovereignty Operation

  • Use the arctic for example

  • Canada and Denmark dispute Hans Island in Arctic

• Freedom of Navigation Operation

  • US/other countries dispute China’s claim to South China Sea

  • Same for Canada’s claim to northwest passage.

Detterence and Support Operations

• Tripwire Force:

  • Small forces of ‘core NATO’ troops deployed to deter direct confrontation

  • E.g Canada in Latvia

  • called a tripwire because the potential for escalation creates deterrence.

• Force Projection

  • larger military deployment to show support and deter

    • e.g US carrier group in Mediterranean to deter Iran.

• Military Aid:

  • Provide equipment and/or weapons to local ally e.g Ukraine

• Training Mission

  • Canadian Forces train local troops

  • E.g Previously in Iraq

• Advise and Assist

  • Special Forces participate in combat missions with local troops to advise on tactics and assist (e.g. call in air strikes)

The Global South

Colonialism and Modernization Theory

• Term is used to ID lower income countries in contrast to richer “North”

• Is more political-economic than fully geographical term

• Global South has previously been referred to as the ‘third world"‘ to ‘developing countries’

COLONIALISM

• 1500s to post-WW2

• European powers establish colonies around the world through military force.

• Led to forced spread of European languages, institutions, religion, etc.

• Exploit developing countries for resources, slaves, markets.

DECOLONIZATION

• Ongoing process of former colonies gaining independence.

• WW2 ends British hegemony and European power.

• Nationalist movements demand independence.

LEGACIES OF COLONIALISM

• Mismatched borders and ethnic conflict.

• Underdevelopment due to:

  • Emphasis on raw materials and lack of industrialization-

  • lack of south-south trade. The mother country have relations with colonies a, b, c etc. but the colonies themselves are not interacting with each other a “hub and Spoke relationship”

• European languages, culture and institutions

• Slavery and racism.

MODERNIZATION THEORY

• Economic liberalism applied to underdevelopment

• Idea that the global south had to become like global north and benefits from contact with global north.

  • Industrialization and trade creates development.

  • Aid-debt used to fund large infrastructure projects

  • Development will create middle class and democracy

THE GLOBAL SOUTH DURING THE COLD WAR

• NATO vs. The Warsaw Pact

• The West (First World), The Warsaw Pact (The second World), The Global South

• 1960s Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)

  • Organization of developing countries not aligned to either NATOP of Warsaw Pact

  • Led to the term ‘third world’

• Many “proxy wars” where NATO/WP supported opposing sides

• Aid driven by security concerns-

Dependency Theory and the Mobilization of the Global South

• Progressive view of underdevelopment

• View that the global South did not benefit from contact with the North

• Neocolonialism, dependency their, and ‘declining terms of trade’:

  • South exports lower value-added natural resources and imports more expensive manufactured goods.

  • Causes underdevelopment and prevents industrialization

  • Modernization projects cause high debt

GLOBAL SOUTH RESPONDS: OPEC

• Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

• Cartel founded in 1960

• Countries agreed to limit production to raise oil prices

• 1973 oil shock as Arab States embargoed oil to US and Israel in response to Arab-Israeli war.

GLOBAL SOUTH RESPONDS: G77 and NIEO

• Group 77

• Organization of developing countries at UN

• in 1974, with NAM. demanded “New International Economic Order”

  • debt forgiveness-

  • better access to North’s markets and technology- They wanted to be able to develop their own manufacturing.

  • increased aid

GLOBAL SOUTH RESPONDS: PROTECTIONISM

• Desire to industrialize led to policy of trade protectionism

  • tariffs to protect domestic ‘infant industries’ by making foreign goods more expensive.- tariff (a tax on imports), make the foreign good more expensive for the consumer.

  • foreign companies can build branch plants to be inside tariff wall.

• Known as “Import Substitution Industrialization”- must build the factory here,

1982 DEBT CRISIS AND SHIFT TO FREE TRADE

• 1979 US massively raises interest rates to fight inflation

• Causes Mexican and then developing country debt crisis in 1982 (Developing Country Debts Crisis)

• IMF requires shift to free trade and free market policies in exchange for loans. Restructuring, protectionism —→ Free Market economics.

GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE

• 1989 Collapse of the SU made non-alignment less necessary

• Also contributed to free trade and globalization- these communist countries shifted to capitalistic direction.

• Creation of World Trade Organization in 1995

• 2001 China join WTO

• Globalization and trade contributes to development in various global South countries

• Leads to creation of the BRICS, a group of fast developing and larger countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa

• Also the G20: Similar to the G7 but includes key south countries.

MULTILATERAL TRADE STALLS

• Doha round of WTO trade negotiations failed.

• Was meant to be the “Doha development round” focused on global South issues such as access for agriculture and more relaxed intellectual property rights- patents and trademarks, copyrights.

• Slowly leads to increase in South- South Trade.

WAR IIN UKRAINE

• As power of Russia, China , etc. has increased has led to less influence for the West.

• Evident in return of non-alignment strategy on Ukraine

• Global South has not sanctioned Russia.

• BRICS seeking to expand to counter West economically.

The Policy and Politics of Foreign Aid

PURPOSES OF FOREIGN AID

• Military Aid:

  • Assist with national defense

  • non-lethal aid e.g. non-weapons military equipment

  • lethal e.g weapons and ammo

  • training

• Democratic Aid

  • Assist with political stability and democratic development

  • election monitors, aid.

• Humanitarian Aid:

  • emergency assistance for disasters, famine, refugees, etc.

• Official Development Assistance (ODA)

  • Longer-term aid to promote economic development, environmental, etc.

• Financial Aid

  • Grants and loans

  • Loan forgiveness/debt relief

  • Tied Aid

    • Donor country puts conditions on aid such as it must be spent on products from donor country.

• Non-Financial Aid

  • Food aid

  • Project aid

    • smaller projects carried out by contracted NGOs

  • Technical assistance

    • experts provide training and new technology

FOREIGN AID INSTITUTIONS

• National Aid Agencies

  • provide ‘bilateral’ aid: direct from donor to recipient

  • USAID, CIDA (now part of Global Affairs)

• Multilateral Aid Organization

  • provide, ‘multilateral aid’: donor country to organization to recipient

  • UNDP, World Bank, WFP

FP APPROACHES AND FOREIGN AID

• Liberal Internationalists

  • Strong supporters of FA as a key tool of soft power

  • Used to promote interests and values

  • Democracy promotion, economic development, and center-left priorities such as human rights and feminism

  • Strong support for multilateral aid.

• Progressives

  • Strong supporters of aid

  • Greater focus on promoting values rather than interests

    • targeted neediest not strategically important countries

    • avoid tied aid and less military aid

  • Strong support for multilateral aid.

• Neoconservatives

  • Have supported aid to promote interests and values

  • Greater emphasis on:

    • military aid

    • democracy assistance '

    • bilateral aid

    • targeting strategic countries

  • Concerned that cuts to US aid will be replaced by China.

• Conservative Nationalists

  • Advocates for strong cuts to all types of foreign aid

  • America First: want money spent at home

  • Trump is cutting USAID and a lot of multilateral aid

  • Some exceptions such as Israel.

Russia, Ukraine, and NATO

Key Eras and Developments in Russia’s Modern History

THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTION

• Lenin and the Bolsheviks overthrow the Czar

• World’s first socialist state

• Promoted revolutions in neighboring countries

• In 1992 created the Union of Soviet Socialist Republicans (USSR or SU)

USSR IN WORLD WAR 2

• 1941 Hitler attacks Soviet Union and opens’ eastern front

• USSR under Joseph Stalin becomes one of the Allies

• Allies meet in middle and divide Berlin and Germany into West and East Berlin/Germany.

THE COLD WAR 1945-1992

• West/East relations deteriorate into Cold War

• US/North Atlantic Treaty Organization vs USSR/ Warsaw Pact (USSR+ Eastern Europe)

• Democratic capitalism vs authoritarian communism

• Nuclear deterrence and proxy wars in global South

  • Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Angola etc.

• Not a “Hot War”- proxy, spies etc.

1962 CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS?

• US spy plane detects nuclear missile sites in Cuba

• President Kennedy demands sites be removed and sets up naval blockade

• Soviet ships approach in game of ‘chicken’- a direct confrontation would’ve happened.

• Soviets turned back and deal was reached.

END OF THE COLD WAR - 1989-1991

• Collapse of communism

• 1989 fall of the Berlin wall that divided west and east Berlin/Germany

• 1989-1991 Break-up of the USSR into Russia, Ukraine and other Republics

• End of the Warsaw Pact.- USSR broke up into its constituent parts.

US DOMINANCE 1991-2000s

• Collapse of USSR leaves US as sole superpower - unipolar moment

• Collapse of communism allows for spread of capitalism

• Expansion of NATO eastward toward Russia

• European Union expands.

BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM 1994

• 3 countries that were formerly past of USSR give up nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees

• Ukraine, Belarus, & Kazakhstan

• Russia agreed not to attack

• US, UK, France, agreed to defend.

Putin’s Goals and Ukraine

VLADAMIR PUTIN

• Former KGB officer

• President since 2000

• Authoritarian government that cracks down on opposition, dissent, and media

• Economy based on state capitalism, nationalism, corruption, and oil

PUTIN’S GOALS

• return Russia to great power status

• Use nationalism and FP to distract from domestic issues

• Restore influence over post Soviet States.

• Create divisions within NATO, EU, and western countries.

2008 RUSSIA-GEORGIA WAR

• Georgia is former Soviet State

• 2003 Georgia elects a pro-Western government and relations with Russia deteriorate

• 2008 Russia accuses Georgian of committing genocide against ethnic Russians in 2 provinces

• Russia invades and annexes Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Foreign Policy Approaches on the Ukraine War.

UKRAINE

• 2010-2014 Ukraine President Yanukovych is pro Russian

• 2013 rejects EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and pursues closer ties with Russia

• Massive protests lead to his replacement with pro-Western president

UKRAINE 2014

• Russia viewed the ouster of pro-Russian president as a coup by the West

• Ethnic Russians in Crimea and eastern provinces protest new government and demand independence

• Russia invades and annexes strategically important Crimea region.

UKRAINE 2022

• Russia invades Ukraine including capital city Kyiv

• NATO implements economic sanctions

• NATO supplied weapons and Ukraine stopped Russia in west of country

• Putin annexes eastern provinces but Ukraine counter-attacks.

UKRAINE TODAY

• War has been a stalemate for the past year

• Russia received drones from Iran and ammo/troops from North Korea

• Russia holds Crimea region and a number of eastern provinces

• Ukraine has small amount of Russian territory.

PEACE NEGOTATIONS

• Trump administration has pushed for peace negotiations

• 3 Key Issues:

  1. Territorial Concessions

     • Russia wants to keep at least some of the territory and have it formally recognized as part of Russia

     • Ukraine wants to keep territory or at least not formally recognize it in hopes of getting it back later.

  2. Security guarantees for Ukraine

     • Ukraine wants NATO membership to prevent future attacks

     • may have to accept lesser guarantees such as NATO providing heavier weapons to build up Ukraine military as a deterrent

     • Russia wants Ukraine to be declared ‘neutral’ but this could lead to future attacks.

  3. US Wants Critical Mineral Deal

     • Trump wants US to help develop Ukraine’s critical and rare earth minerals

     • US would get large share of proceeds as ‘repayment’ for past military aid

     • Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange.

     • Negotiations over minerals and peace break down after contentious meeting

     • Zelensky wouldn’t sign without security guarantees and worries Trump’s peace = surrender

     • US pauses military aid and intelligence sharing to pressure Ukraine.

LIBERALS AND NEOCONS ON UKRAINE

• Liberal Internationalists:

  • strong support for Ukraine

  • Biden took ‘incremental’ approach to providing weapons to test Russia’s response and avoid larger war

• Neoconservatives

  • Strong support for Ukraine

  • Criticized incremental approach and wanted more weapons faster.

REALISTS ON UKRAINE

• Argued Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault

  • I. e NATO and EU expansion threatened Russia’s legitimate security interests and provoked 2014 and 2022 invasions

• Opposed military aid as would never work or could risk a nuclear war

CONSERVATIVE NATIONALISTS AND UKRAINE

• Conservative nationalists have been sympathetic to Putin and opposed to Ukriane ai

• Isolationsims:

  • Ukraine not a vital interests

  • Americ first

• Nationalism

  • pro putin as hes a storong nationalist leader