Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe

Overview of Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe

• Focusing on events leading to the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in East Germany and Poland.
• Connections made to bottom-up and top-down democratization.
• Historical perspective on post-WWII democratization efforts in defeated Axis countries.

Historical Context

• After WWII, Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan were defeated and face restoration of democracy.
• Support for democracy existed in previously democratic regimes; educated and affluent populations sought democratic governance.
• The U.S., Britain, France, and other powers established democratic regimes in these countries, with varying success.

Democratization Models

Bottom-Up Democratization (East Germany)

• Led primarily by popular protests and demands for change.
• Post WWII, Germany was unified in 1871 but suffered massive losses in both WWI and WWII, culminating in division during the Cold War.
• Germany divided into East (German Democratic Republic) and West (Federal Republic of Germany) with contrasting governance.
  • Soviet influence resulted in the establishment of a one-party state in East Germany.
• Mass Migration: Notably, 2.7 million East Germans fled to West Germany from 1949 to 1961, indicating dissatisfaction with communist governance.
• Berlin Wall (1961): Constructed to prevent further migration; East Germany's government utilized extensive surveillance (Stasi) to suppress dissent.

Impact of Gorbachev's Reforms

• Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev initiated reforms (glasnost and perestroika) but ultimately withdrew military support from Eastern European regimes.
• This shift allowed public protests to emerge, leading to visible calls for democratic governance without fear of military oppression.
• The East German regime confronted growing protests (1989), and dissent among East German soldiers meant they wouldn't fire on protesters, indicating regime vulnerability.

Transition to Democracy in East Germany

• Fall of the Berlin Wall symbolized the collapse of East German communism; East Germany merged into West Germany rapidly thereafter.
• Extensive investment was required for the economic transition of East Germany.

Top-Down Democratization (Poland)

• Poland’s historical context includes partitioning in 1795, which erased its statehood until WWI.
• Following WWII, communists established a regime in Poland with nominal opposition parties for legitimacy.
• Economic Struggles: The Polish government borrowed heavily from Germany to industrialize but mismanaged funds, resulting in economic turmoil risking public dissent.
• Solidarity Movement (1980): Worker strikes led by the independent labor union Solidarity became a crucial force for opposition against the government.
• Pope John Paul II's ascent in 1978 inspired Polish nationalism and church-led opposition to the regime.

Key Events Leading to Democratic Transition

• Martial law was declared in 1981 in Poland to suppress Solidarity; however, Gorbachev's reformist policies emboldened opposition.
• Political Concessions (1989): The communist party decided to allow free elections under tightly controlled conditions, mistakenly believing they would retain power.
• Election results shocked the regime: Solidarity won all Senate seats and a majority in the Sejm, leading to a power shift and formal end of communist rule by the end of 1989.

Lessons Learned from Democratization Case Studies

• Preference Falsification: Highlighted how public opinion can be misrepresented under authoritarian regimes due to fear.
• Tipping Points: Public mood and collective action can lead to political regime change when enough citizens feel empowered to protest.
• The dynamics of information and perception critically affect political agency and regime stability.

Conclusion

• The comparison of East German (bottom-up) and Polish (top-down) pathways to democracy illustrates the complexity of democratization processes.
• Understanding historical contexts, economic conditions, and leadership changes are essential for grasping how political transitions occur in authoritarian contexts.