Nuclear Weapons Week Two

NUCLEAR BASICS WEEK 2 

THE POLITICS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS NOTES CHP 1-2

CHP 1

• Nuclear weapons remain central to international security in the modern world 

• Detonation of just one of the approximately 13,355 would cause unimaginable destruction to any large modern city

• Scientists suggest the use of nuclear weapons could lead to nuclear winter 

  • World will suffer freezing temps→ due to radioactive fallout released in atmosphere 

  • Nuclear war could cause human society to return to the Stone Age or the end of the human race completely 

• Nuclear world at the start of 2020 is arguably as dangerous as at any point for a generation 

• Most modern nuclear weapons are significantly more powerful, accurate sophisticated bc a large number can be launched with just a few minutes 

• No fool proof defence against nuclear attack exists 

• Important to guard against overconfidence → just bc nuke weapons have been used twice many decades ago→ DOES NOT MEAN THEY WILL NOT BE USED IN THE FUTURE 

• The only way to prevent future nuclear use is to transform the nuclear debate and rid the world of them entirely 

• 1945→ 8 nations have acquired and retained a nuclear weapons capability: (US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea) 

• State that have acquired the bomb and given it up → South Africa, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine) 

• First 5 states to acquire nuclear weapons are all signatories to the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons → recognizes these power as NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES (NWS) which can legally possess nuclear weapons now but must concurrently take steps towards the goal of global disarmament. 

  • India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel→ not legally recognized by the Treaty and can NEVER be accepted as NWS→ bc they all developed nuclear weapons after the NPT was agreed 

• Some states have chosen to acquire nuclear weapons→ 191 states acceded to the NPT

  • 186 Non-Nuclear Weapons States (NNWS) → pledging to never develop nuclear weapons 

  • No nuclear weapons→ Southern hemisphere

    • Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Libya, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan

• Iraq and Syria→ prevented from pursuing nuclear weapons

• Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons based on their territory after the Union collapsed in 1991  

• South Africa→ dismantled nuke weapons for internal political reasons in 1990s 

• North Korea (2006) → only state to have left the Treaty in 2003

• Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon

  • Member of NPT→ might moving to where it could build a bomb→ especially after US withdrew from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018 

• 9 states currently possess nuclear weapons→ over 90% are held and operated by the US and Russia 

  • Result of Cold War arms race→ nuclear stockpiles increased to total of over 70,000→ many of which were held on high alert and were significantly more powerful than the bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

  • UK, France, China→ 200-300 nuclear warheads

  • India, Pakistan, Israel→ 80-150 each 

  • North Korea→ 20

• Approximately 150-200 nuclear free fall nuclear bombs are currently stationed at US military bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Turkey under NATO nuclear sharing agreement

• No other nation currently deployed nuclear weapons on another state's territory 

• Stockpiles of nuclear weapons has involved a significant amount of nuclear testing → some ostensibly for civilian non-military purposes but the majority in search of bigger and more powerful weapons 

• 2056 nuclear devices have been exploded since 1945 and these tests have been conducted on land, sea, underground, above ground, in the atmosphere, and even space 

  • Have also been conducted on humans and animals

• The result is that some area of the global are now uninhabitable, many humans have suffered and continue to suffer from serious illnesses 

• Enormous amounts of radioactive material has been released into the global ecosystem

  • 1966→ Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty sought to ban nuclear testing, is yet to enter force 

• Civilian nuclear power plants are operated in 31 countries across the globe→ has links to technological requirements and processes involved give many states a hypothetical nuclear weapons capability should they decide to pursue the path towards weaponization 

  • Rights of states to develop civilian nuclear power is a central part to the Non-Proliferation Treaty→ could become increasingly important for future domestic energy requirements as access to fossil fuels become more difficult and their use becomes more politically problematic 

  • Close link b/w civilian nuclear energy and a threshold/latent nuclear weapons capability has driven the current standoff b/w the international community and Iran→ possible future concern about Japan and others 

  • Spread of civilian nuclear tech has led to fears of nuclear accidents→ Windscale (UK, 1957), 3 Mile Island (US,1979), Chernobyl (Ukraine, 1986), and Fukushima (Japan, 2011)

• Nuclear politics, policy, strategy→ is much about people, culture, psychology, and domestic influence as it is about threats, material military capabilities and weapons and the international system 

• Realist→ importance of anarchical international system, power, need to protect against external threats as key themes in the nuclear weapons story→ perceived pressures have been understood, internalised and responded to through a particular cultural, political, normative and perhaps also gender based lens when it comes to how different states think about nuclear weapons 

  • Nuclear politics remains a human endeavour and shaped and bounded by a politically and socially contrasted nuclear debate

• Theory of nuclear revolution→ belief that nuclear weapons have changed warfare and international politics means that most states view nuclear weapons as a deterrent (MAD)- and should only used to deter aggressive action by another state and NOT A WEAPON OF WAR

  • Potential for accidental use is high (less stable armed states) → worse case the use by either a state or by a non-state actor such as terrorist groups

• PARADOX→ belief that for deterrence to be credible→ state must prepare and plan for how nuclear weapons will be used if deterrence fails and must convince a possible adversary that they have the capability and intention of using nuke weapons if they have to 

  • Has cause to produce more elaborate war plans and has skewed the command and control of nuclear weapons toward prioritising being able to use them over safety and security 

• MAD has been credited with keeping peace in our nuclear world since 1945→ bc any nuclear use against another nuclear state is suicide→ debate split over just how integral MAD has actually been relative to nuclear stability of the past and whether he lack of nuclear use might be better be explained simply by luck 

  • Example→ Cuban Missile Crisis, Indo-Pakistan Kargil war (1999), Balakot (2019)

• Great concern→ spectre of terrorist groups acquiring and using nuclear weapons → threatens to undermine axioms that have government nuclear past

• Nuclear deterrence and threat of nuclear retaliation remains bedrock of nuclear strategy for all nuclear weapons powers in the 21st century 

• Nuclear deterrence forms the centerpiece of what we might term as global nuclear order, fundamental tenets→ non-proliferation, nuclear abstinence, commitment to disarmament, around which nuclear politics plays out 

• Nuclear history is split in 2 ages 

  • First Nuclear Age→ nuclear politics was the Cold War b/w East and West, notions of stability through MAD and non-proliferation through the NPT would be enshrined as a certain nuclear orthodoxy 

    • Nuclear weapon can produce stability and security b/w states

• Second Nuclear Age → after Cold War where the focus for nuclear politics appeared to shift towards different types of nuclear risk, development of new measures and mechanisms of security, and toward the Middle East, South, and Northeast Asia 

  • Reassessment of perceived certainties of the First Nuclear Age + concurrent weakening of the acceptance of the infallibility of nuclear deterrence has drive belief that we should not assume that the relatively view of our nuclear past will be replicated in our nuclear future

• Third Nuclear Age→ driven by widespread and pervasive impact of new technologies on weapons systems, support architecture and global nuclear commons, shifts in the way we understand nuclear debate and condition→ muddy global nuclear politics still further in the years ahead 

• Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear Ban Treaty) → Sep. 2017

  • Symbolic of a renewed desire for movement towards a nuclear free world, none of the current nuclear armed states have signed up to it 

  • All nuclear armed states are currently working to replace/modernise their existing nuclear weapons systems and support infrastructure → many legal frameworks governed our nuclear world are falling apart or are under stress

  • Dynamic happening when various disruptive tech are increasingly blurring and complicating the global nuclear order→ make new challenges for nuclear security, stability, and safety

• Rudolph Herzog→ atomic age continued to affect the world and many old problems have actually gotten worse 

  • Fears present during Cold War still exist 

  • Nuclear weapons not being used since 1945 should not be proof they won’t be used in the future

• There is no right or wrong answer when it comes to nuclear weapons, only ones that work 

CHP 2: WHAT ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND WHY ARE THEY SO POWERFUL? 

• Since the 1960s, there have probably been enough nuclear weapons deployed to destroy the entire planet if they were ever used 

• Important to understand how, why and consequences of nuclear weapons

• 4 parts

  • Key ingredients needed for a nuclear bomb + why uranium and plutonium can produce explosion

  • Race to build first atomic bomb and overview of Manhattan Project

  • Times that nukes have been used in war and effect the bombs had on Hiroshima + Nagasaki

  • The differences b/w Atom bombs and Hydrogen bombs

NUCLEAR SCIENCE: URANIUM, PLUTONIUM, AND NUCLEAR FISSION 

• Atoms are made of a nucleus (has protons and neutrons) and electrons that surround the nucleus 

• Nuclear explosion occur when the nucleus of an atom of an unstable isotope of a particular chemical element→can have different isotopes with different numbers of neutrons→ when bombarded with extra neutrons causes atom to split of fission→ the nucleus is destabilized by the EXTRA NEUTRONS AND HAS TO EMIT NEUTRONS TO RETAIN ATOMIC BALANCE 

  • Enough of these atoms are place together (critical mass) → nuclear chain reaction: neutrons emitted from atom A bombard atom B which causes atom B to fission and emit more neutrons that bombard atom C and possibly D

• With enough fissile material, it can become a self-sustaining chain reaction 

  • Result of individual fission, a vast amount of energy is released→ mostly as heat

  • If carried out in controlled manner → steady stream of energy

  • Done rapidly→ can be used to produce explosion

• Challenge is how to control nuclear reaction taking place in and b/w the atoms of a particular chemical element and finding a way to maximize energy produced 

  • Reaction is slow→ the heat of the chemical isotope will burn, melt, or be blow apart before it can fully fission→ will reduce the energy released and therefore the power of the explosion 

• 3 chemical isotopes used to make a nuclear bomb 

  • URANIUM 235 (U235) → human-made element 

  • PLUTONIUM 239(PU239) →small amount exists in nature 

  • URANIUM 233 (U233) → used in experimental nuclear weapons in the US in the 1950s but was abandoned as a source for bombs 

• Uranium→ found in small amounts in certain areas of the world → found in Australia

  • Small % of this is the isotope U235 which is fissionable → over 99% consists of U238→ not fissionable→ can’t be used for bomb 

• To create enough U235 to make a bomb→ large quantities of uranium aka pitchblende are needed→ U235 isotopes must be separated from the heavier element U238 → aka Uranium Enrichment → can’t be done chemically due to similarities of isotopes of uranium→ separation has to be achieve through other means 

  • Separation→ transforming uranium ore into gas aka sublimation using fast spinning centrifuges that separate the elements by minute difference in atomic weight through gravity or diffusion 

  • Recently scientist have begun to use lasers to separate uranium isotopes 

  • Enriching uranium is difficult task and is the biggest hurdle to any actor seeking to build a nuclear device 

• Small amounts of plutonium 239 exists naturally→ quantities needed must be manufactured

  • Only way to produce quantities of PU239→ nuclear reaction of uranium 

  • PU239 is a by-product of uranium fission→ any plutonium bomb can be derived from uranium 

  • Plutonium must still be separate from other waste products through various chemical reaction aka plutonium separation

  • PU239 require production of enriched uranium to fuel a nuclear reactor + uranium used in producing plutonium cannot be used in a bomb

• U233 can be used to fuel civilian nuclear reactors for domestic energy requirements 

  • Civilian power generation U235 needs only to be enriched to about 5% aka low enriched uranium opposed to the 80-90% for a bomb

  • Uranium can also be enriched to around 20% U235 for medical purposes and b/w 20-50% for use in nuclear submarines 

• Plutonium with a high % of non-fissile PU240 as opposed to PU239 can also be used as nuclear fuel 

  • The process required to produce domestic nuclear energy and a bomb are the same and vary in degree

• Any country with civilian power reactor and tech can enrich uranium beyond the level needed for civilian purposes or separate PU produced by a reactor for a bomb 

• Weapons grade PU can be produced at the same time as civilian nuclear energy from reactor with the right tech→ reason why PU is used rather than U in nuclear weapons + need less of it to produce the same amount of energy 

• Basic science of nuclear bomb derived from Einstein's E=MC2

  • Asserted large chemical elements with heavy atomic mass contain massive amount of energy

• To make a nuclear weapon

  • Need a decent amount of fissile material → about 15kgs of U235 or 5kgs of PU239 for crude implosion bomb 

  • Mechanism to initiate and manage nuclear reaction→ way to start process and to make sure it happens at right speed and time

  • Means of delivering the weapon to the intended target 

  • Getting the fissile material most challenging → another reason why nuclear weapon have used plutonium as fuel 

THE GENESIS OF THE BOMB: FROM THE MANHATTAN PROJECT TO THE TRINITY TEST  

• Einstein Theory of Special Relativity (1905) → E=MC2

• Discovery of atomic nucleus Ernest Rutherford (1911) 

  • Paved way for possibility of bomb with enormous destructive capacity

• 1938→ German chemists Otto Hahn & Fritz Strassman observed→ U atoms bombarded with neutrons → saw fissions would happen in nucleus causing more neutron to be emitted and significant energy to be released 

  • Process could be repeated= chain reaction theorized by Leo Szilard in 1933

• In chain reaction neutrons discharged by one atom would stimulate to the next→ known as transmutation→ conversion of one chemical isotope into another 

• 1938 Hahn and Strassman→ the potential of developing a nuclear bomb is a real possibility → world was on the brink of war→ led to race of producing first atomic bomb

  • The possibility of it being developed by Nazi → August 1939 Leo Szilard and Eugene Wigner wrote letter to President Roosevelt signed and delivered by Einstein in which it warned about the possibility of Nazi atomic bomb + recommended a US atomic weapons programme→ aka Einstein-Szilard letter

  • Letter represent the genesis of US atomic weapons effort

• UK nuclear work underway→ programe Tube Alloys → would merge with Manhattan Project when US enters war 

  • British + Canadian scientists would become leading members that produced first atomic bomb

• Nazi→ project Uranverein Project (Uranium Club)

  • Established to conduct research into nuclear weapons→ major concern for allies especially role of Wener Heisenberg 

  • 1941 the program halted due to pressure of other war-winning resources

• Scientist took refuge in UK and North American and would work on nuclear weapons during and after WWII

  • Nuclear scientist in germany were highly sought out for the US→ Operation Paperclip + Soviet Union after Nazi 

• Japan began nuclear weapons research in the 1940s but had difficulties and delays 

• Soviet nuclear program didn’t start until after Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945→ received key intelligence from spies inside the the Manhattan Project 

• Manhattan Project (1942)

  • Purpose→ create atomic bomb before Nazi and secure victory in WWII 

  • Joint effort with UK + Canada 

  • Led by renowned scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer and overseen by Army Engineer Major General Leslie Groves

  • Figures apart of project→ Ernest Lawrence, Hans Bethe, Leo Szilard, Klaus Fuchs (Soviet spy), Glenn Seabord, Richard Feynman, John von Neumanns, Edward Teller

  • Conducted and designed in Los Alamos New Mexico + work to produce uranium and plutonium at Oak Ridge, Tennessee and Hanford, Washington

  • 129,000 people worked on the project b/w 1942-1945

  • Lines of research 

    • Uranium bomb→ proven viable by Otto Frisch and Rudolf Peierls 

      • Required industrial effort to separate the fissile U235 from prevalent isotope U238 

• Natural uranium when in ore form is over 99% U238 and both isotopes have identical atomic properties, separating U23 significant task

• Plutonium, which had been synthesised by Glen Seabord 1940

• Both required vast amounts of uranium ore and facilities to process it 

• 21 billion spent on project 90% went to producing fissile material 

• Problem 2→ control the nuclear reaction so that the bomb would not explode prematurely or fizzle out 

  • More straightforward for uranium bomb where 2 sub-critical pieces of U235 could be kept apart then blasted together when needed 

  • Scientist at Los Alamos came up with spherical implosion device→ large gold ball with fissile material in the middle to ensure PU did not begin a chain reaction until initiated

• Result of the Trinity Test→Turman expedited plans to use the atomic bomb on Japan in the Pacific War if Tokyo did not surrender immediately

• Stalin agreed that the Soviet Union would enter war against Japan in 1945 

• Found out that a number of scientist working on the Manhattan Project were passing information about the Project back to the Soviets allowing them to build their atomic bomb quickly in August 1949

  • Joe 1 similar to Fat Man bomb used by US in 1945

  • Spies Ethel and Julius Rosenburg guilt of coordinating Soviet espionage against US nuclear program→ executed by US 

FAT MAN AND LITTLE BOY: HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI 

• Truman called for Japanese to surrender at Potsdam conference July 1945 after the success of Trinity Test→ “prompt and utter destruction” → Japan refused surrender

• Hiroshima (August 6, 1945)

  • Little Boy 

  • Weight 4 tons, over 3 metres, used 64.1kgs of 89% enriched U235

  • Initiation mechanism→ gun type→ subcritical pieces of U235 would fire at another piece of U235 to create critical mass= explosion 

  • To keep U235 apart bomb design was thin

  • Small % of fissile material used about 1.4%

  • Colonel Paul Tibbets dropped above 1,968 ft at 8:15am 

• Nagasaki (August 9, 1945)

  • Fat Man 

  • Weighed 4.6 tons, 3 metres long, 1.5 metres in diameter

  • 6.2kgs of PU to achieve critical mass

  • Implosion→sub-critical fissile was compressed by numerous explosions around a spherical cell allowing it to reach critical mass 

  • Major Charles Weeney dropped bomb 1,650 ft at 11:02am 

  • Used only 17% of its explosive potential 

• Both bomb detonated high above each city to spread the blast and maximise damage rather than exploding when it hit the ground 

• Half the death were caused by the initial blast and firestorm

  • More died as result of injuries, burn, radiation sickness and cancer and leukemia 

• Decision to drop 2 atomic bombs in August 1945 was uncontroversial and continues to split historians and commentators 

  • Traditionalist→ dropping bomb was the correct thing bc it would spare live and lots of time and $ went into the project 

  • Revisionist

    • US had guaranteed the future of the Emperor Japan would surrender and diplomatic solution achieved 

    • Bomb was dropped for geopolitical reasons→ message to Soviet 

    • Proposed invasion would not have been as costly as US officials claimed

ATOM BOMBS AND HYDROGEN BOMBS: ASSESSING DESTRUCTIVE CAPACITY  

• Scientists were conscious of another vastly more powerful type of nuclear bomb based on nuclear fusion

• Edward Teller→ scientist on Manhattan Project would be dubbed “the father of the H-bomb” → would create energy by fusing atoms together 

• Fusion weapons are distinctly different and rely on a different process to produce energy

  • US denoted first H-bomb  in 1952

• Fusion weapons will replace fission weapons in the US nuclear arsenal

  • Could be made much more powerful than fission bombs 

• Fusion bombs go a step further, using the heat from fission to forge atoms of hydrogen together to release energy 

  • Forces atoms together to create a new isotope which creates vast amounts of heat and energy 

  • Which is why a fission to used bc H-bombs are referred to as 2-stage-weapon

• No major scientific obstacle prevents an actor that has the resources to build a fission bomb from acquiring the capability for a fusion bomb 

• Following the first H-bomb the US and the Soviet Union and other would ammas stockpiles of nuclear weapons 

• New thermonuclear bombs could wipe out entire societies 

• Most modern nuclear weapons don’t exceed 1-megaton yield 

• Modern nuclear weapons are more powerful than those in 1945

• 1980s→ predicted large-scale use of nuclear weapons result in nuclear winter→ smoke, dust, and fallout would lead to drastic climate effects 

• 150,00-240,000 people died as a result of the Fat Man and Little Boy bombs dropped on Japan in 1945

  • The 2 bombs damage→ were equal to hundreds of aircraft dropping thousands of tons of conventional munitions 

SUMMARY

• Basic nuclear bomb→ energy released when atomic nucleus is bombarded with extra neutrons

  • Certain amount of fissile material can be brought together quickly→ possible to create a chain reaction that releases enormous amounts of energy→ used for a bomb

• Have to contain fissile material 

  • U233, U235, PU239

  • Only U235 and PU239 have been used 

  • Both difficult to get

  • Uranium has to be mined and turned into gas and enriched 

  • Plutonium produced as product of uranium nuclear reaction and must be separated from other waste products 

• US first to develop and test nuclear weapon in 1945

• Nuclear weapons used twice by US against Japan

• Reasons for dropping bombs on Japan 1945 remains subject of debate 

• 2 types of nuclear weapons

  • Fission→ generate energy by splitting atoms

  • Fusion → H bombs generate energy by fusing atoms together

  • Most modern nuclear weapons are fusion bomb→ power of fusion bomb is theoretically limitless

• Warning against a nuclear winter which could lead to loss of life 

STATUS OF WORLD NUCLEAR FORCES 

• US and Russia possess approximately 88% of the world’s total inventory of nuclear weapons + 84% of the stockpiled warheads

• Globally overall inventory of nuclear weapons→ declining

  • Happening bc US and Russia dismantling retired warheads 

• Overall inventory of nuclear weapons, the number of warheads in global military stockpiles, which comprises warheads assigned to operational forces is increasing 

• 9,585 are in military stockpiles for use by missiles, aircraft, ships, and submarines

  • 3,904 deployed with operational forces

  • 2,100 US, Russian, British, and French warheads on high alert and ready for use on short notice

ESTIMATED GLOBAL NUCLEAR WARHEAD INVENTORIES, 2024 

• US TOTAL INVENTORY→ 5044

• RUSSIA TOTAL INVENTORY → 5580

• Most nuclear armed states provide no information about the sizes of their nuclear stockpiles 

• As of 2024 both the US and Russia no longer exchange publicly available data about their deployed strategic warheads and launchers as mandated by the New START Treaty

  • Publicly available info, analysis of historical records, leaks→ make is possible to make best estimates about the size and composition of the national nuclear weapon stockpile

• Pace of reduction has slowed compared to the 1990s and continued only bc of dismantlement of retired weapons→ trend is that military stockpiles (useable nuclear weapons are increasing again

•  Nuclear armed states plan to retain large arsenals for indefinite future 

• Continue to modernize nuclear forces adding new types or increasing the role they serve in national strategy and public statements → committed to retaining nuclear weapons for indefinite future

US NUCLEAR WEAPONS 2025

•  January 2025→ estimated stockpile 3,700 

  • Most not deployed but stored for potential upload onto missiles and aircraft as necessary 

  • 1,770s deployed

  • 1,370 deployed on ballistic missiles

  • 300 strategic bomber bases in US 

  • Additional 100 at air bases in Europe 

  • 1,930 in storage against technical or geopolitical surprises

• Retired warheads await dismantlement a significant fraction of the US total warhead inventory 

  • Disassembly retired weapons into component parts reuse, storage, surveillance 

  • Dismantlement has slowed in recent years

• FY 2025

  • Pantex Plant→ all warhead assembly and disassembly take place 

  • Surpassed its FY 2023 dismantlement of W84 warheads 

• Warhead dismantlement and disposition is an important process for the National Nuclear Security Administration→ bc US building reply on components from warheads 

• Total estimated US inventory is about 5,177 warheads 

• US nuclear weapons stored in 24 locations

  • 11 US states + 5 European 

  • Locations will increase as nuclear storage is added to 3 bases 

  • Largest Kirtland Underground Munitions and Maintenance Storage Complex, New Mexico 

  • Washington→ Strategic Weapons Facility Pacific and ballistic missile subs at Naval Submarine Base Kitsap→ carry more deployed nuclear weapons than any other in the US 

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND CONFIDENCE 

• Analysis and estimates come from the following

  • State originating data

  • Non-state originating data

  • Commercial satellite imagery 

• US and Russia → New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty→ produced biannual datasets of deployed nuclear forces 

  • Useful keeping lid on both countries deployed strategic forces 

  • Expired February 2026→ new agreement not followed US+ Russia could increase their deployed nuclear arsenals by uploading several hundreds of stored reserve warheads on their launchers

  • Verification and data exchange not replaced→ lose important info about each other’s nuclear forces

NUCLEAR PLANNING AND NUCLEAR EXERCISES 

• Each presidential administration has done a review of US nuclear posture to describe admin guidance for US nuclear policy and strategy  

• Biden’s 2022 NPR

  • Attempted to cancel proposed nuclear sea-launched cruise missile and continue the retirement of the B83-1 gravity bomb 

• Current strategic nuclear war plan→ OPLAN 8010-12

  • A family of plans against Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

  • Entered into effect July 2012 response to operational order Global Citadel 

  • Designed to be flexible to absorb normals changed to the posture as they emerge 

  • 2019→ refocus “great power competition” incorporated new cyber plan and blurred nuclear and conventional attacks 

  • Emphasizes escalation control to end hostilities and resolve the conflict at the lowest practicable level 

  • A whole government plan that includes the full spectrum of national power to affect potential adversaries 

• To practice and fine-tune the strike plans resulting from the guidance the armed forces conduct several nuclear related exercises 

• Increase in mix of B-52 and B-2 deployment to Australia 

  • August 2024→ bomber task force deployed to Royal Australian Air Force Base to “demonstrate interoperability and bolster our collective ability to support a free and open Indo-Pacific” 

  • November 2024 → six B-52 bombers deployed to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar 

    • Signal to Iran amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East 

    • Mix of nuclear capable aircraft 

• US strategic bombers operate over Swedish territory

• Integration of nuclear and conventional bombers into the same task force can have implications of crisis stability, misunderstandings, and risk of nuclear escalation → bc it could lead to overreactions and misperceptions about whether it is a conventional or nuclear signal 

• US bombers have been practicing “agile combat employment”

  • All bombers hopscotch to a larger # of widely dispersed smaller airfields in the event of a crisis 

  • Intended to increase # of aimpoints for adversary seeking to destroy the US bomber force→ raising the ante for an adversary attempt a strike and increasing the forces survivability 

  • Can be challenge if an adversary has enough long range weapons to target several locations at the same time, especially those with tankers or if its ability to find and engage targets is faster than the Air Force’s ability to launch an attack

LAND BASED BALLISTIC MISSILES  

• US Air Force (USAF) operates 400 silo based Minuteman III ICBMs and keep warm another 50 if necessary for a total of 450 silos 

• Land based missile silos divided into 3 wings 

  • 90th Missile Wing at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming

  • 91st Missile Wing at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota 

  • 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana 

  • Each has 3 squadrons, each with 50 minuteman III silos collectively controlled by 5 launch control centers 

• Warheads Assigned 

  • About 800 warheads assigned to ICBM force of which about half are deployed

• USAF test launched Minuteman II missiles with unarmed multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles to maintain signal the capability to reequip some of the Minuteman II missiles if desired 

• Air Force conducts several Minuteman III flight tests each year

  • Conducted 2 test launched in 2024 with a Minuteman III and one reentry vehicle and one additional in November with multiple reentry vehicles

• Air Force plans to purchase 659 Sentinel missiles

  • 400 deployed and rest used for test launched 

  • DOD question Pentagon’s process and lack of transparency regarding decision to pursue Sentinel option over other options 

  • Unclear why enhancement of ICBM would be necessary 

  • Schedule and extreme cost for the Sentinel program cause breach of the Nunn-McCurdy Act→ conduct root cause analysis and renewed cost assessment of program 

  • Supporting infrastructure → drives of the cost and schedule overruns  

  • Addition to new missile → renovation of 450 launch facilities, new missile alter, new command and control systems, new launch centers, new training sites and curriculum for USAF 

    • Cause by staffing shortfalls, clearance delay, IT challenges, issue with supply chain

  • First Sentinel prototype flight test 2026

  • New Sentinel will meet user requirement and will have adaptability + flexibility to be upgraded and will have greater range than the Minuteman III

    • Still unlikely it will have enough range to target China, North Korea, Iran without flying over Russia 

  • Will carry multiple warheads up to 2 per missile 

  • Construction of Sentinel program 

    • 2023 at Warren Air Force Base

    • Sentinel construction + deployment at Malmstrom AFB and finally at Minot 

  • As Sentinel missile deploy the Minuteman III will be removed from their silos and stored at host bases before being transported to Hill Air Force Base, Utah Test & Training Range, or Camp Navajo 

  • Rocket motors destroyed at Utah Test & Training Range, non motors decommissioned at Hill AFB

NUCLEAR POWERED BALLISTIC MISSILE SUBMARINES 

• US Navy operates a fleet of 14 Ohio class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)

  • 8 in Pacific (Bangor, Washington) 

  • 6 in Atlantic (Kings Bay, Georgia)

  • Has been rotationally undergoing lengthy reactor refueling overhaul to extend each boat’s lifespan

  • All 14 boats could be deployed until 2027

  • Operational submarines undergo minor repairs→ actually # is closer to 8 or 10

  • 4-5 on hard alert

  • 4-5 on full alert 

• The Boats

  • Design for next gen ballistic missile submarines aka Columbia-class is happening 

  • Will replace current Ohio-class ballistic missile subs in late 2020s

  • Will be 2,000 tons heavier than Ohio-class + 16 missile tube than predecessor’s 20

  • Projected to cost $130 billion 

  • Construction began on Oct 1, 2020; the boat passed its 50% construction completion metric in August 2024

  • Certain elements of constructions delayed→ COVID, challenges with design, materials, and quality of work

    • Lead boat of Columbia-class face a 12-16 month delay due to these factors

    • Earliest delivery of lead boat 2028

    • Sea trials for 3 years with deterrence patrol in 2031

  • Are expected to be quieter than Ohio-class 

    • Bc of new electric-drive propulsion train will turn each boat’s propeller with an electric motor instead of louder, mechanical gears 

    • Electric drive can be distributed around boat→ increases system’s resilience and lower chances that a single weapon could disable the entire drive system 

    • Navy has never built something like this before → cause technical delays 

  • Will include X-stern ship control system, new missile compartment, new reactor

  • Oldest Ohio-class boast offline in FY 2027→ USS HENRY M. JACKSON  same time first Columbia-class to be delivered 2027 

  • Second Ohio-class decommissioned USS ALABAMA in 2028

  • Due to delays life extend to 5 Ohio-class SSBNs from 42 to 45-46 years 

  • Total number of operational SSBNs→ b/w 14 and 12 boats while Ohio-class goes offline and Columbia online

  • Total number of SSBNs will dip below complement of 12 for 3 years during retirement process bc schedules are not aligned 

  • Sea trials→ 3 years

    • First 2031

• The Missiles  

  • Ohio-class→ carry up to 20 Trident II D5 sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) → reduced to 24 to meet limit of New START

  • Ohio SSBN could carry 280 missiles but US will not deploy more than 240

  • Navy has replaced Trident II D5 with life extended and upgraded version known as Trident II D5LE (LE=life extended) 

  • D5 are scheduled to be replaced with D5LE IN 2025 

  • D5LE→ range of more than 12,000 km + new Mk6 guidance system to provide flexibility to support new missions and make missile more accurate 

  • D5LE→ hard target kill capability and increase payload→ allows mission capability to be achieve with fewer subs 

  • Compensate the fact the US will deployed fewer Columbia class subs than Ohio-class and each will only carry 16 

  • D5LE→ replace Trident SLBMs on British ballistic missile subs and will arm the new US Columbia-class and British Dreadnought-class when enter service 

  • Navy plans to do substantial second life extension of Trident II D5LE to ensure it can operate through 2084 

  • First flight tests from an SSBN planned 2036 

  • D5LE enter service on 9th Columbia-class in FY 2039

  • Final D5LE retired in 2049

• The Warheads

  • Trident SLBM can carry up to 8 nuclear warheads but normally carry 4-5 for approximately 90 warheads per sub

  • Normally 950 warheads deployed on operational SSBN can be lower due to the maintenance of individual subs 

  • SSBN based warheads account for 70% of all warheads attributed to US deployed strategic launched under New START 

  • About 1,920 warheads assigned to SSBn fleet and 950 are deployed

  • 3 warhead types are deployed on US SLBMs

    • 90 kiloton enhanced W76-1 → refurbished version of W76-0 with slightly lower yield but with enhanced safety features 

    • 8 kiloton W76-2

    • 455 kiloton W88    

  • Mk4A reentry body carries W76-1 with new arming, fuzing, and firing unit with better targeting effectiveness than old MK4/W76 systems

  • Upgrading Mk4A to Mk4B reentry body featuring a Shape Stable Nose Tip→ designed to provide more consistent flight performance and accuracy 

  • W88→ life extension program to modernize arming, fuzing, firing components, nuclear safety concerns and replace conventional high explosives with insensitive high explosives → all to support better LE options 

  • W76-2→ uses warhead fission primary to yield about 8 kilotons

    • No more than 25 were produced and 1 or 2 of the 20 missiles on each SSBN is armed with 1-2 W76-2 with the rest either with W76-1 or W88 

  • US plan building new SLBM warhead- W93→ housed in Navy mk7 aeroshell

    • Completion scheduled for 2034-2036

    • Will cost $27.6B 

• US-UK COLLABORATION 

  • US sea based nuclear weapons program also supports the UK nuclear deterrent 

  • Royal Navy (UK) plans to use Mk7 for the replacement warhead and deploy new Dreadnought subs in the future 

  • The 2 nations are working separate but parallel warhead programs with collaboration b/w the 2 

• Deterrence Patrols

  • Deterrence patrol have declined more than half from 64 to 30-36 annual patrols 

  • Subs conduct modified alerts→ mix deterrent with occasional port visits 

  • 60% of deterrent patrol take place in Pacific increase nuclear war against China and North Korea 

  • US Navy started to conduct foreign port visits to send political messages to improve the visibility of its ballistic missile subs 

Locations→ Scotland, Alaska, Guam, Gibraltar, South Korea 

• Released images of SSBN on patrol 

• STRATEGIC BOMBERS

• The Aircraft

  • USAF operates 19 B-2A bombed and 76 B-52h bombers

    • B-2 lost in service 2008 and 2022 (crash)

    • Crashed B-2 retired than fixed

  • 60 assigned nuclear missions

  • Bombers organized into 9 bomb squadrons in 5 bomb wings at 3 bases

    • Minot (North Dakota)

    • Barksdale (Louisiana)

    • Whiteman (Missouri) 

  • Number of nuclear bomber bases will increase once Air Force B-21 Raider enters service → seems the number of nuclear capable bombers will increase 

  • B-21 design classified 

    • Similar to B-2→ smaller and has reduced weapons capability 

    • Is narrower forward field 

  • Expected AF will procure at least 100 of B-21→ estimated cost $203 B

    • Estimated cost per plane $550 million → $800 million 2024 

  • Budget and design still secret → enter service 2027 to replace B-1B and B-2 bombers during 2030s

  • B-21→ capable of delivering the B61-12 and B61-13 guided nuclear gravity bombs and future AGM-181 LRSO  + wide range of non-nuclear weapons 

  • B-21 first deployed Ellsworth (South Dakota), then Whiteman (Missouri), Dyess (Texas) 

  • Ellsworth AFB→ completed by Feb 2026

    • Host 2 B-21 squadrons (one operational + training) 

  • Modernization planned for USAF B-52H

  • Air Force→ replace engines, electrical power generation systems, cockpit displays, radar systems on all B-52 aircrafts

• The Missiles 

  • AF developing new nuclear air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) aka AGM-181 LRSO 

  • Will replace AGM-86B in 2030 

  • LRSO will arm 46 nuclear capable B-52Hs and new B-21→ first time US stealth bomber will carry nuclear cruise missile

  • Cost → $15 B

  • LRSO→ entirely new with improved military capabilities 

    • Longer range

    • Greater accuracy 

    • Enhance stealth 

• The Warheads 

  • B-2 carry 16 nuclear bombs

  • B-52 carry 20 air-launched cruise missiles 

    • No longer assigned gravity bombs 

  • 780 nuclear weapons + about 500 air-launched cruise missiles are assigned to the bombers 

  • Only 300 weapons are thought to be deployed at bomber bases 

  • Remaining 480 to be in central storage at Kirtland and outside Albuquerque, New Mexico 

  • Department of Energy→ designed + producing modified and new warheads for delivery by USAF strategic delivery systems 

  • W80-4 planned to be modified version of W80-1 used in existing ALCM

    • W80-4 will be carried by LRSO when it is fielded-the first warhead designed for use with a new missile in over 3 decades 

    • NNSA authorized production engineering phase in March 2023→ expected to reach 90% design maturity in late 2025 

    • Scheduled for delivery Sept. 2027 

    • Production be completed 2031 

  • 2 new gravity bombs

    • B61-12 AND B61-13

• B61-12→ US first guided standoff nuclear gravity bomb

  • Uses modified version of B61-4 gravity bomb

  • Will be equipped with guided tail kit to increase accuracy and standoff capability which will allow strike planner to select lower yields for existing targets to reduce collateral damage 

  • FY 2023→ NNA reached 65% completion for B61-12 program and 50% remaining components 

  • Became operational with B-2 bombers in 2023 and fighter-bombers in 2024 

  • In process of being deployed to Europe 

• B61-13

  • Use warhead from B61-7 will add the B61-12 safety and control features + guided tail kit to improve accuracy 

  • Will have a max yield similar to that of the B61-7 with 360 kilotons

  • Designed for future B-21 bomber and possibly the B-2 until the bomber’s retirement 

  • Purpose the bomb will have a mission related to broad area targeting and perhaps holding some underground targets at risk 

  • Related to effort to retire B83-1→ long targeted for retirement due to age, yield, and redundancy in US arsenal 

• NONSTRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS

  • One type nonstrategic nuclear weapons in stockpile 

    • B61 gravity bomb→ several versions B61-3 & B61-4

  • Surety→ refer capability to keep nuclear weapons safe, secure, and under positive control

  • US withdrew nuclear weapons from UK around 2007 

  • Evidence over 2-3 US may return nuclear mission to UK soil → preparations are underway and possible give NATO the option to redistribute its nuclear weapons in times of tension

  • NATO Member States that don’t host nuclear weapons can participate in nuclear mission as part of Conventional Support of Nuclear Operations (CSNO) 

  • NATO broad modernization of nuclear posture in Europe → upgrading bombs, aircraft, and weapons storage system 

  • F-15E and F-35A will be able to carry B61-12

  • RAF Lakenheath first USAF in Europe to receive nuclear-capable F-35A

  • NATO appear to be increasing the profile of dual-capable aircraft posture 

  • US considering developing new non-strategic nuclear sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) → proposed during the first Trump administration → Biden sought to cancel bc strict security protocols and specialized training