LEC 27

1970s Dynamics in the Middle East 

• Major Changes in Cold War Conflicts: The Middle East experienced major shifts in its role within the Cold War during the 1970s. While the region had already been of strategic importance due to its oil reserves, the 1973 oil crisis, resulting from the Yom Kippur War, demonstrated how the Middle East could directly influence global political and economic stability. Furthermore, as the U.S. and the USSR struggled for influence, regional players also sought to leverage the superpower rivalry to advance their interests. Both sides used the Middle East as a theater to project power and challenge their adversaries. This included military aid, direct interventions, and the promotion of proxy wars. 

Oil 

• Patterns of Oil Production and Consumption Increased Its Strategic Prominence: The Middle East holds a significant portion of the world’s oil reserves. The discovery of oil in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran throughout the 20th century transformed the region's geopolitical and economic importance. Western dependence on Middle Eastern oil became increasingly significant, especially as demand for energy soared during the 1970s. This period also saw the rise of OPEC as a major player in global energy markets. 

• The Role of OPEC and the 1973 Oil Crisis: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), dominated by Middle Eastern producers, utilized its position to influence global oil prices. The 1973 oil embargo, in response to the Yom Kippur War, demonstrated OPEC's power to impact global economies. This event led to worldwide inflation, recessions in major Western economies, and a reevaluation of energy policies. 

Islamic Religious Revival and Realignment 

• Secular, Socialist-Leaning Arab/Middle Eastern Governments Were Less Popular: Many Middle Eastern countries were governed by secular, socialist-leaning regimes during the mid-20th century, such as Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser or Syria under Hafez al-Assad. However, by the 1970s, a combination of factors led to declining support for these governments, including economic troubles, corruption, and perceived alignment with Western interests. 

• Emergence of Islamist Movements: This dissatisfaction led to the rise of Islamist movements, which promised a return to traditional values and an alternative to the secular-nationalist ideologies that had dominated previously. Groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the Wahhabi movement in Saudi Arabia gained followers. 

• Impact on Regional Alliances and Power Dynamics: This shift affected regional alliances and power dynamics, as Islamist groups challenged established secular governments and attracted attention from regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia, who sought to spread their respective interpretations of Islam. 

The PLO and the Palestinian Conflict 

• Peace with Its Neighbors Did Not Resolve the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Although Israel made significant peace agreements with neighboring countries such as Egypt and Jordan, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict remained unresolved. Peace agreements focused primarily on state-to-state relations rather than addressing the fundamental issues between Israel and the Palestinians. 

• The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Was Founded in 1964 and Fought a Global Struggle but Made Regional Enemies: The PLO was established to represent the interests and aspirations of the Palestinian people. It became the primary voice of the Palestinian struggle for statehood and engaged in both diplomatic and militant actions to achieve its goals. This stance often led to regional enemies, as some Arab states saw the PLO's methods as too aggressive or destabilizing. 

• PLO's Involvement in Regional Conflicts: The PLO’s activities extended beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as they became involved in other regional disputes, particularly in Lebanon, where they established bases and clashed with local groups. This involvement led to greater regional instability. 

The Lebanese Civil War 1975-1990 

• Lebanon a Sectarian Powder-Keg That Erupted in 1975: Lebanon's complex mosaic of religious and ethnic groups—Maronite Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, Druze, and others—led to deep divisions and tensions. Political power was distributed among these groups through a confessional system, which became increasingly unbalanced over time. 

• Drawing in Rival Militias and Syria: As tensions escalated, militias representing different sects and political interests engaged in violent confrontations. The conflict also drew in regional powers such as Syria, which intervened under the pretext of stabilizing Lebanon but ended up entrenching its influence in the country. 

• Impact on Lebanese Society and the Region: The Lebanese Civil War caused significant human suffering, displacing thousands and resulting in the destruction of infrastructure. The war’s complexity, involving regional powers and international actors, had lasting impacts on Lebanese society and the broader region. 

The Iranian Revolution 1979 

• Dissent with the Secular, Westernizing Shah Led to Revolution, a Theocracy, and the Upending of Regional Politics: The Iranian Revolution was a watershed moment in the region. Growing dissatisfaction with the Shah's authoritarian rule, his westernizing policies, and economic inequality led to widespread protests. This culminated in the overthrow of the Shah and the establishment of an Islamic theocracy under Ayatollah Khomeini. 

• Impact on Regional Politics and Relations with the US: The revolution disrupted the balance of power in the Middle East, leading to a reorientation of alliances and tensions with the United States. The revolution introduced a strong anti-Western stance in Iran's foreign policy, influencing its support for anti-imperialist and Islamist movements in the region. 

• US Hostage Crisis: The revolution led to the US-Iran Hostage Crisis, during which Iranian students seized the US embassy in Tehran and held American diplomats hostage for 444 days. This event further soured US-Iran relations and shaped US foreign policy towards Iran for decades. 

Iran-Iraq War 

• The Iranian Revolution (Plus Oil) Led Directly to Invasion by Iraq: Following the Iranian Revolution, Iraq's leader Saddam Hussein saw an opportunity to assert dominance in the region by exploiting Iran's perceived weakness. Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, aiming to annex border territories and challenge Iran's new government. 

• The War Bogged Down as Both Sides Suffered from Military Deficiencies: Despite initial expectations of a swift victory, the war dragged on for eight years. Both Iran and Iraq faced military challenges, including supply shortages and technological limitations, leading to a protracted and bloody conflict. 

• Oil and Iraqi Troubles Led to "Internationalization" of the Conflict: The war's duration and the strategic importance of the region's oil resources drew in international actors, such as the United States and the Soviet Union, who supplied arms and support to both sides. 

• Iran Became More Radicalized: The prolonged war radicalized Iran's political and military leadership, leading to a greater focus on revolutionary principles and regional influence. Iran's support for militant groups across the Middle East intensified, heightening tensions. 

Israeli Intervention in Lebanon 

• The Growing Power of the PLO Drew in Israel into the Lebanese Civil War: As the PLO established a stronghold in Lebanon and engaged in attacks on Israel from Lebanese territory, Israel perceived this as a direct threat to its security. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to expel the PLO and establish a buffer zone (strip of land where disturbances are not allowed, or are closley monitored) in southern Lebanon. 

• The Invasion of 1982 Demonstrated the Capabilities of the Rebuilt IDF: Israel's military intervention showcased the strength of its armed forces but faced significant criticism due to civilian casualties and the long-term occupation of parts of Lebanon. 

• Long-Term Impact on Lebanon and Israel: Israel’s intervention had long-lasting consequences, including the rise of new militant groups such as Hezbollah, which gained support among the Shia population in southern Lebanon and eventually challenged Israel's military presence. 

Massacres and New Players 

• Israeli Attempts to Back the Maronite Phalangists Backfired and the IDF Withdrew: Israel’s support for the Maronite Phalangists, a Christian militia, was intended to counterbalance the influence of the PLO and other rival factions. However, the Phalangists' actions, including the Sabra and Shatila massacres, drew international condemnation. 

  • Expanded explanation of the Sabra and Shatila massacres: 

    • Happened in September 1982 when members of the phalangists militia entered into a Palestinian refugee camp of Sabra and Shatila in West Beirut and carried out a massacre, killing hundreds of civilians. 

• Western Powers Intervened and Were Met by Suicide Attacks Led by a New Power: Iran-Backed Groups (Hezbollah): Western powers, including the United States and France, intervened in Lebanon to stabilize the country, but they faced challenges from Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah. These groups used suicide attacks and other asymmetric warfare tactics (weaker opponent using unconventional tactics to counter a stronger opponent's military strengths, introducing a new phase of conflict in the region. 

Conclusion 

• Oil and Strategic Realignments Centered the Middle East in the Late Cold War, Creating a Lasting US Presence: The late Cold War era saw oil and strategic realignments place the Middle East at the center of global politics, resulting in a sustained US presence. This presence aimed to protect oil interests and maintain regional stability. 

• Religion, Sect, Ethnicity Replacing Increasingly Frayed Secular Ideological Battle Lines: The region shifted from a focus on secular ideologies to religious, sectarian, and ethnic identities. This change led to new conflicts and power struggles, as groups fought for influence and control over resources. 

• Political Islam and the Oil Weapon Internationalized These Conflicts and Affected Their Character: The rise of political Islam and the strategic use of oil as a weapon internationalized Middle Eastern conflicts. This added new dimensions to the regional power struggles and influenced the broader Cold War dynamics.