Russia, China, and the Middle East - In Depth Notes

Overview

Russia and China have gained significant influence in the Middle East, driven by domestic factors, historical legacies, and recent geopolitical and economic interests.

Domestic Political Context

• Russia and China: Both countries possess sizable Muslim populations linked historically and politically to the Middle East.

  • Russia: An estimated 15 million Muslims, primarily in the Volga region and North Caucasus. Putin acknowledges Russia as a Muslim nation, highlighting the 2001 membership in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

  • China: Approximately 20 million Muslims, with historical ties from the Silk and Spice routes dating back to the sixth century. Tensions exist due to perceptions of secessionist threats, particularly in Xinjiang.

• Shared Concerns: Both nations view the export of political Islam as a significant internal security threat, complicating their regional policies.

Economic Interests

• Energy and Arms: Russian and Chinese engagement in the Middle East focuses on military supplies and energy.

  • Russia: A major arms supplier during the Cold War but less dependent on Middle Eastern oil due to its own extensive production.

  • China: Has become the largest importer of oil from the Middle East, necessitating strategic security for energy supplies.

Comparison of Interests

• Russia: More willing to confront US policies, emphasizing cooperative relations with Arab states to secure economic interests.

• China: Aligns more closely with US interests concerning energy security but maintains a cautious approach towards political involvement.

Ideological Dimensions

• Authoritarianism vs. Liberal Democracy: Both countries prioritize economic development and national sovereignty over promoting democratic ideals, contrasting with Western norms.

• Historical Context: China’s historical focus on trade under Zheng He and claims of non-imperialism stand in contrast to Russian imperial ambitions through past territorial acquisitions.

Historical Engagement

• Soviet Legacy: The USSR supported radical Arab nationalism but faced distrust in the Middle East post-Cold War, with diminishing influence during the 1990s and the rise of US hegemony.

  • Key Events: Includes the Suez Crisis (1956) leading to increased Soviet support for Arab nationalism and the Iranian Revolution (1979) representing a shift in regional politics towards Islamist agendas.

Recent Developments (2000s Onwards)

• Russian Resurgence: Renewed influence, especially in Syria under Assad during the Arab Spring, altering perceptions of Russian power.

  • Played a strategic role in supporting Iran and navigating relations with Israel.

• China's Economic Expansion: Transitioned from arms sales to become the predominant economic actor by forming extensive trade relationships across the region.

Future Trajectories

• Geopolitical Tensions: The dynamics between Russia and China create a complex interplay, particularly regarding US and Western interests in the region.

• Multipolar Middle East: Increased preferencing for diverse external powers among Middle Eastern states, allowing for greater autonomy in international relations.

Key Events Timeline

• 1405–1433: Zheng He’s naval expeditions fostered early trade ties.

• 1774: Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca - Russia's protective claims over Orthodox Christians.

• 1916: Sykes–Picot–Sazonov Agreement partitions Ottoman territories.

• 1948: USSR’s recognition of Israel marks major Soviet foreign policy shift.

• 2017: China becomes the largest oil importer from the Middle East.

• 2022: Russia's invasion of Ukraine complicates Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics.

Conclusion

Russia and China’s strategic interests are at an all-time high in the Middle East. The complexity of regional geopolitics continues to evolve, with these nations presenting both challenges and opportunities for local actors as they navigate their relationships with existing powers, particularly the United States. Their rise suggests a shifting landscape towards a multipolar world order, where local entities engage with multiple foreign powers for strategic advantages and increased autonomy.