Virulence – ability of a pathogen to cause disease
Pathogen – organism that causes disease
Intrinsic factors – internal (host-related) causes
Extrinsic factors – pathogen-driven causes
Epidemic – localized outbreak of disease
Pandemic – worldwide outbreak
Examples:
a) COVID-19
b) HIV/AIDS
c) Bubonic Plague
d) Cholera
Bacteria
Parasites
Viruses (and more)
Structure:
Protein shell (capsid)
Genetic material (DNA or RNA)
Replication:
Require host cells
Copy genetic material using host machinery
Do not generate their own energy or perform metabolism
RNA virus
8 genome segments → each codes for 1 gene
Surface proteins: Hemagglutinin (H) & Neuraminidase (N)
Example strains: H1N1, H3N2
Symptoms: fever, chills, aches, congestion
Outbreak in 1918
Infected ~⅓ of world population
Over 20 million deaths
In Philadelphia: 12,000 deaths in 5 weeks
Lifecycle:
Tick hatches → mouse
Tick molts → deer
Tick lays eggs
Humans = dead-end host
Treatment: antibiotics
Most common tick-borne disease in the U.S.
Live in/on host, feed off host nutrients
Reproduce more rapidly than host
Parasitic interaction = +/- (host is harmed)
~200 million new cases per year
409,000 deaths in 2019
⅔ deaths = children under 5
Caused by Plasmodium
Transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes
Mosquito bite → sporozoites enter human liver
Liver cells release merozoites → infect red blood cells
Some develop into gametocytes
Another mosquito bites → takes in gametocytes
In mosquito:
Gametocytes fuse → zygote (2n)
Meiosis → oocyst → new sporozoites
Cycle continues with next bite
Prevention: vector management (nets, barriers, behavior)
Treatments and Vaccines:
RTS,S/AS01 (Mosquirix) – first approved in 2019
R21 (Oxford) – up to 77% efficacy
World Malaria Day: April 25
Enveloped RNA virus
One of 7 human coronaviruses:
4 = common cold
Others: SARS (2003), MERS (2012)
Zoonotic origin – likely from bats
Other zoonotic examples: Ebola, HIV
Spread: person-to-person via droplets/aerosols
Global spread in ~2 months
Reasons for rapid spread:
Possibly lower fatality = higher transmission
Case Fatality Rates (CFR):
SARS: ~10%
MERS: ~35%
COVID-19: ~0.5–5%
Flu: ~0.1%
Potential tradeoff between virulence and transmissibility
Decrease R (reproduction number) < 1
Contact tracing and isolation
Develop effective treatments to lower fatality
Social distancing, quarantine, lockdown
Goal: reduce R (ex: R = 2 → R < 1)
Testing + contact tracing + quarantine
Goal: R <<< 1
Better treatment protocols
Early: treated like ARDS
Now: treat hypoxia, prevent blood clots
Antiviral treatments
Goal: reduce CFR/IFR
Ongoing trials (some success)
Example: Tamiflu (for influenza)
Vaccines
mRNA (e.g. Pfizer, Moderna)
Viral vector (e.g. Johnson & Johnson)
Very high effectiveness