POLSI 2500 FINAL EXAM

Political theory

Political theory: what makes policy makers create the decisions that they pursue

• How do you justify things that force people to do stuff they don't want to doè

John Rawls Veil of Ignorance and original position “Main idea of theory of justice”

• When making political system, the people making it don't know what position they will have in system (rich or poor), so they make just system

Pros:

• Might work for new countries

Cons:

• Not realistic = can not be used in real society d to our real positions

“Principles of of Morals and legislation.”

Utilitarianism: seeks to see morality or action or system based on overall happiness that it marks

• Jeremy Benthalam’s Principle of utility: something is good if it maximised happiness for greatness number

• If pleasure of overall majority exceeds pain of minority = it is just

  • However, if 90% only slightly happy, but 10% very unhappy then this is wrong

• Hedonic calculus = math he used to decide this

Cons:

• Individual rights are not respected due to good of the many = tyranny of majority

• Behind veil of ignorance certain things might be bad

Immaneul Kant, categorical imperative:

• If you do one thing you should generalise it to whole world

  • Move beyond particular situation and then generalise to whole world

  • Ex. if someone is hungry and they steal food from a store, have to ask themselves if this is okay in wider society

Freedom and individual rights

Social contract: people agree to surrender certain rights by adopting central authority to protect other rights

Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan:

• State of nature: state where no government, no society = people naturally bad, so agree to have government to control them

  • Ex. no art, industry, war all the time, no rights at all

• No right to physical safety, or property

• Leviathan = the state that can enforce set of rules or regulations

• Even most tyrannical state better than state of nature

Cons:

• Can turn into a dictatorship and make unfair rules, randomly take away right

• Worse government worse than worst state of nature

• Assumption that people are bad

• What is law is not what is moral

• Did not consent to this “contract”

Nash equilibrium, game theory:

• Optimal outcomes can be achieved when people work together, rather than competing

• Prisoner’s dilemma: either confess or stay silent, nash equilibrium is to both remain silent due to 5 years in jail for both but not for life for either

• Nash equilibrium: both should go and coordinate actions

• Patriot act: violated individual rights but better for collective good in theory

John Locke:

• Tacit consent: By choosing to use government services, and remain there = you consent to governments rule

  • Ex. Walking on the street = streets maintained by state so tacit consent

David Hume, issue of consent:

• Tacit consent does not exist, people don't have a choice

  • Don't have money to leave, have connections there, their job is there

• Consent in order to be valid it has to be given voluntarily and have had other options

Right vs left wing politics

Right wing politics:

• Support for view that certain social orders and hierarchy are inevitable, natural or desirable

  • Low taxes, few welfare, little social security and state focus on essentials

Left wing politics:

• Hierarchies are bad, state should get rid of hierarchies

  • Does with higher taxes, welfare and social security

• Ex. economic status, the right thinks that hierarchies are natural (less intervention in welfare) and left wing something has to be done (more redistribution of wealth and taxes)

Communism vs facism:

Facism:

• Extreme right wing

• Idea of hierarchy to extreme through coercion

• Nationalism to justify, military is important, racial hierarchies, gender roles

Communism:

• Extreme left wing

• Takes idea of eliminating hierarchies to extreme

• All people should have same outcome, elimination of class hierarchy

• Persecutes those that are elitist such as rich peasants in Russia

• Caused poverty and death

• In common:

• Individual subordinated to the group

• Extreme persecution due to government control

Liberal then vs now:

• Modern: Liberal is left wing (lots of taxes)

• Classical liberalism: used to be conservative = due to association with freedom, wanted more economic and social freedoms

• People developed a hierarchy over time but it is good because it is free at least

  • Ex. American Bill of rights

• Neoliberalism for this reason is most free

Neustadt “Presidential Power”: describes that the US president is a clerk, not a dictator and can't pass things quickly. Like a clerk as he is weak and needs congress to make laws

• No proactive power = can not really make policies and decrees

• Have a lot of reactive power = can veto things

• Foreign policy they have a lot of power

Formally = do not have a lot of written power

Informal power = power to persuade people

• Persuade people because they get a lot of media coverage

  • i.e can go on TV and ask people to lobby congress for their medicare plan

• Can talk to congress people in Oval office with good aura or facilities to offer

• Prestidge of his position

EU

• Founding father Jean Monet: thought economic integration would end conflicts in Europe

• States in EU lose:

  • Open borders can’t regulate

  • Lose sovereignty due to EU commission, parliament and court of justice

  • Contribute to common EU budget

• States in EU gain:

  • Free movement of goods (no tariffs)

  • Common tariff rate for imported goods

  • Free movement of people and work

Schengen zone

• Countries don't need to use a passport and no border guards

• Common visa policy = if from a country that isn't from Schengen get one that lets you go to it

  • Most are part of it unlike Bulgaria, and Ireland

  • Not in EU but in Schengen = Norway and Switzerland

Eurozone

• Countries that use the euro

• Countries that don’t = Denmark and Switzerland

• To join = deficit has to be under control, debt to GDP ratio has to be low

Fiscal vs monetary policy vs political union

Political union: states give up some sovereignty to a supranational entity with legislation that includes aspects of both foreign and domestic policy

• Ex US federal government controls the individual states

• EU is not one because it doesn't have much power and influence compared to US federal government

Fiscal union: common budget and states make decisions together with taxation and spending

• Ex together Canadian province make collective decisions on taxation

• EU is not one since there is no EU tax and budget is small

Monetary union: states that have the same currency and central bank determines supply of it

• Ex Eurozone is one since they have Euro

Eastern European growths WWII vs Western European growth today

• First trend:

• After WWII = fast and exponential growth Western Europe

• Slowed down now Eastern Europe faster = will probably slow down since less growth to do

• Second trend:

• Nationalist leaders

• 2016 Referendum = David Cameron wants to prove people want to stay and get special status, stop eurosceptic party vote syphoning

• Most voted to leave the EU and so they left in January 31st 2020

• Nationalism caused by economic issues

  • Ex People who voted for Brexit suffered from losses in manufacturing

• Third trend:

• Russia is a “rogue state” as it does not conform to international law or conduct

• Europe dependent on Russia for gas

• If NATO went to war Russia cut off gas, so can’t

  • Ex Germany has a lot of its gas from Russia

2005 Constitution referendum: EU worked well until this, France and netherlands rejected so showed issues in EU

• 2008 Financial Crisis = hurt members of EU hard, especially Eurozone

  • PIIGS = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain affected

  • Contagion effect = if Greece went bankrupt then investors devalue currency of Eurozone

  • Why

  • Greece had fake stats to join Eurozone (i.e deficit 5 times over max)

  • The Troika = the EU commission, central bank and IMF bailed out Greece

  • IMF told Greece to cut spending = Greece didn't like

  • Greece didn't leave though = because if one country left then permanent currency image shatter as others could leave

Syrian civil war

Assad family: ruled since 1971, president is Bashar al-Assad

Syrian state vs radical rebels vs moderate rebels

• Arab spring 2011: Assad used chemical weapons on people, conflict went from street fighting to a civil war with three actors

• The government, the moderate rebels (US supported), radical rebels (ISIS, Al-Mousra front)

• Leading up to protests there were a lot of droughts and food prices went up

• Provinces hardest hit had most protests

Arab spring

Arab spring: Affected Middle Eastern nations, most common form of regime before was authoritarian dictatorships financed by oil

Succeeded

• Started in Tunisia

• Why:

Self-immolation of street vendor in Tunisia since couldn't sell without permit

• Ben Ali = was dictator of Tunisia

• Went to democratic consolidation

• It spread because of social media

Failed

Egypt

• Mubarak = Persons were protesting against in Tahrir square

• Morsi = person who replaced, controlled too much power and fuel shortages

• El-Sisi = current president, came to power with coup d’etat

Libya

• Gadafi = dictator, killed during Arab Spring in 2011 August and then civil war

• Revolutionary groups turned on each other no common enemy and ISIS had foothold

Bellin “Reconsidering Robustness of Authoritarianism”

Patriomal vs industrialised militaries

Institutionalised: choose generals how qualified they are, not vested in survival of dictator

• Will not fire on protesters

Patriomal: loyalty in choosing generals, don’t care for qualifications, vested in survival of dictator

• Will fire on protestors to support government

Bellin Argument: most militaries in Middle East are patrimonial

Themes of Latin America

Weak states

• Inefficient, corrupted, governments can not control territories

• It is the most unequal region in the world (8 of most unequal countries in Latin America)

• Violence

• Inflation (too much money in circulation, money made valueless, hurts poor)

• Political instability

Hyper Presidentialism (Delegative democracy)

Checks-and-balances: institutions or rules that prevent rulers from doing as they please, but in Latin America are weak

• Ex Congress for presidents

Guillermo O’Donell

Delegative democracy: one that doesn't have checks and balances, can pass laws as they please

To pass laws:

• Executive orders used to pass laws

• Rubber stamp congress, congress passes all laws due to supermajority

Monroe doctrine and American intervention

• Cold war much intervention in Cuba, Guatemala to Chile

• Monroe doctrine: US views Latin America as their sphere of influence, so can intervene

  • Especially if turning Communist

Suzane Stokes Clientelism

• Voting people because they give you material material benefits with no policies

  • Ex Buying votes = money to vote for

  • Ex Bribing people = provide them with goods or services

• Bad for democracy:

• Perverse accountability: Keep people poor to pay them again next election

  • No incentive to make you better off but make you poor

Argentina

Juan Peron and Eva Peron

• Juan Peron

• Working class angry at oligopoly government for mismanagement and inequality

• Came to power in coup, pro-working class used their language

• What he did:

  • Made paid vacation

  • Labour laws

  • Unionsation

  • Public transports

  • Subsides expanded

  • Society security coverage

• Eva Person:

• Wife, in charge of labour ministry, held informal power, gave women right to vote and liked her due to being good speaker, died of cancer

• What happened to them:

• Personism: controversial, made lots of debt, printed money economy collapsed

• Military kicked out of office 1955

Chile

Salvador Allende

• Marxist, won presidential election

• What he did:

  • Price controls

  • Social spending

  • Nationalised banks

• Causes economy to collapse due to printing money

1973 Military Coup

• 1973 September 11th, military surrounded palace, bombed building and killed himself

• Pinochet came to power after

Colombia

• FARC

• Marxist guerrilla groups wanted to take power by force

  • Cocaine

  • Illegal resource extraction

• Landowners had to fight against them due to state incompetence and corruption

3 way civil war

Three groups

• United Self Defence Forces of Colombia (landowning paramilitary group)

• Government

• FARC

Alvaro Uribe

• Determined to get rid of FARC

• Wanted to professional the armed forces = grew strong so could fight

• FARC reduced in first year, less homicides and kidnappings

• What happened:

• Won reelection in 2006

Mexico

Porfirio Diaz

• Autocratic dictator of Mexico between 1889 - 1911

• Good:

• Created army and opened up for trade and made railroads

• Bad:

• Jailed people and closed news, oligarchy and inequality increased

Mexican Revolution 1910

• Toppled him but changed balance of power with progressive constitution and equal pay and let land reform

PRI:

• Hegemonic party made by centrist Lazaro Cardenas, support from working people

• Owned police and judges, wouldn't give money to governors who didn't like

• 1980s and 1988 elections burned ballots due used military to unpopularity = caused economic failure

• By 1990s PRIs hegemony ended and 2000s non PRI president won

Peru

Shining Path

• 1990 Peru, doing bad with sharp economic crisis and Shining Path

• Was a terrorist Marxist guerrilla group that terrorised people

• Wanted to overrun state

Alberto Fujimori

• Dictator, came to power in 1990s, did not like congress, did not like judges, preferred to govern by decree

• What he did:

• Got rid of Shining Path and fixed economy with neoliberalism

• Self-coup

• 1992 launched a coup with military to prevent congress and judges from entering buildings

• When they did come back he packed court and congress with his allies

Venezuela

Hugo Chavez: 1999 - 2013 Quasi-communsit, Bolivarian Revolution, packed judiciary with allies, poverty rates fell

• What he did:

• Nationalised health care

• Healthcare

• Education

• Problem:

• Couldn't pay for this, and didn’t invest in anything but oil

Nicolas Maduro

• Assumed office after Chavz died

• After oil prices fell in 2014 the economy went into trouble since relied on it too much

• Ever since they have done poorly

Inflation or shortages

• Hyperinflation because money became valueless

• 2019 inflation was 1 million percent

• Chronic shortages for basic goods due to price controls

• Bread, milk, toilet paper, detergent all short

Brazil

Bureaucratic authoritarianism during 1964-1985

Bureaucratic authoritarianism: mode of authoritarianism, happened in Uruguay and Argentina

Non personalistic

• This means no centred on one person

Legalistic

• Used law to respress you, like using unfair trials for charges if don’t like you

• Military didn't shut down congress and had elections

Not overly corrupted

Technocratic

• Rule by experts (risen through ranks of treasury)

Emphasis on concrete policy goals

• Do not come to power to steal money but have goals

Brazil: concrete goals goal was economic development and opposing communism, some repression but was legally as could have judges

Hochschild “King Leopold's Ghost”

King Leopold II of Belgium

King Leopold II:

• 1865 - 1909

• Liked palaces and gardens

• Didn't like how small Belgium was

• Wants to colonise for ivory and rubber so Africa sent explorers

• Claim did for philanthropy, building roads, commerce and outlawed slavery

Stanley

• Explorer he recruited to explore

• Thought would be easy since no government, got land from chiefs with bribes

• Tyrant = he beat people with whips and used slaves

• Colonised with repeating rifles, malaria medication (quinine) and machine guns

Rubber extraction

• Needed for cars, establish monopoly quickly

• Took hostages to ensure met quotas and underreported amount

• Cause of death - smallpox, murder, starvation and plummeting birth rate

E.D Morel

• Elder Dempster shipping clerk, undercover Congo wealth and exploitation

  • Leopold II sent lots of guns to Congo

• Wrote articles about horrors of Congo to rally church and public

• Did it work:

• Yes, only because people hated Leopold, having having with minor

• Needed to make self look good sent rigged committee of friends to Congo in commission to say not bad, said opposite

Belgian state

• Took over after death in 1909

• Claimed ended of forced labour but did not

Mobutu

• Dictator got power after Lomumba went against Western interests, was backed by West

Why Congo poor:

• Few doctors or engineers and most civil servants were European

• Van der Wall = neopatrimonialism (corruption)

• Low state capacity (absenteeism, bad tax collection)

• Foreign aid

• Pros:

• Can help make healthcare, basic education

• Cons:

• Can cause overreliance on it and squanders money

Stanford Prison Experiment

• 1971 wanted to see if normal peoples environment that made violent

• Some people were guards, and pretended to arrest, some were criminals and guards had absolute power over them

• Guards abused them and led to physical violence

• It if environment that people are in that cause them to be abusive

Low population density and state capacity

• Fukuyama State capacity vs size

• If can governed territory then strong state

• Herbst - one of big factors that stopped from making good states in Africa was low population density

• As population density goes up cost to control people decreases since people more far apart

India

British East India Company 1700 - 1858

• Privately owned cooperation to establish trade

• Monopoly on exotic goods by Queen Elizabeth I into Britain

• British East India Company started to use standing army to get new territory

1858 Sepoy Rebellion:

• Caused British to resume direct control, Queen Victoria was then the ruler of India

Pros:

• British left a state, army, civil service, limited democracy

• Many Indians learned about democracy from Britain

Mahatma Gandhi and nonviolent resistance

• Gandhi Congress Party started resistance against, used nonviolent civil disobedience

• Salt march, since they couldn't collect salt, illegally made salt from seawater

• 1947 got independence

Nehru

• 1947 - 1964 Congress party and Nehru was in power

• Marked by nationalism fused with socialism

What he did:

• Neglected agriculture in favour of heavy industry

• Land reform failed

• Neglected primary education in favour of university led to illiteracy

Indira Gandhi

• 1966 - 1984 Congress party

• Nehru's daughter, chosen because name recognition and thought woman was weak

• Was a populist and socialist

Garibi Hatao

• Related to poverty alleviation, popular among poor

• Used this to get absolute power

1975 emergency declaration

• She felt threatened politically so issued one and curtailed civil liberties but then restored democracy

• People didn't like this so lost elections

• She got back power in 1980

• After this was capitalist but was assassinated in 1984

Rajiv Gandhi

• Indira Gandhi's son

• Open up economy to business

• Also assassinated

Congress Party and Bharatiya Janata Party

• Congress party: old party with regions in colonial period

• Bharatiya Janata Party: 1980s a rightwing party with Hindu nationalism

• Immense poverty still an issue, malnutrition, and literacy low

• Modi (BJP)

Declaration of Independence

US history: July 4th 1776 was a British colony, sick of taxes, and got independence with revolutionary war with George Washington who became first president

US constitution 1789

Constitution: 1789 controversial due to autonomy of states interference

Bill of rights: 1791 James Madison, created to restrict power of federal government to convince colonies to join

• Inspired other nations like Canada's charter

First amendment: freedom of speech, assembly, and religion

• Limits are defamation, obscenities, blackmail

Second amendment: right to bear arms

• Can increase homicides, but can defend people, defend from invaders

• Exceptions are automatic firearms

Third amendment: prohibits quartering soldiers in peoples homes

Fourth amendment: search warrant needed that is specific (what you are allowed to search)

• Doesn’t apply at the border

Fifth amendment: no double jeopardy, speedy trial, no self incrimination

Sixth amendment: right to a trial by jury if accused of a crime

• Harder to be biassed with people, issue is usually plea deals

Seventh amendment: right to jury in civil matters

Eighth amendment: protect against cruel and unusual punishment

Ninth amendment: gives rights not in constitution if not specifically outlined, so can have more rights not in there

• Right to privacy

Tenth amendment: creates federalism in US, which divided power in national and state government, and if constitution did not give specifically feds right then thats goes to state

Federalism: federalist papers made to create constitution and why they put what they did in it

Governors and state legislatures:

Players in US politics

The president: elected for 4 years, elected by electoral college

How the electoral college works: each state has number of electors based on pop, 538 in total and needs to have 270, in each state candidate with most vote gets electors

• Created to give all adequate say

Battleground states: state where people switch between who they vote for

• Pennsylvania and Nevada

Presidential powers in the US: Americans presidents are very weak

Executive order and the veto:

• Effective orders are decrees, limited to less important policies

• Power to nominate judges that is approved by senate

• Pardon power or reduce years in prison (committing sentence)

• Foreign policy

• Can veto policies from Congress

FDR and his importance: Great Depression to World War 2

• Got rid of prohibition

• Security Exchange Commission and FDIC to prevent bank runs

• Social security for pensions and unemployment

• Helped win World War Two

• New Deal with public works program

Congress

House of reps: current speaker Mike Johnson, 435 reps reelected 2 years and need 218 votes to pass legislation and is by population

• Propose the budget

• Minority party no protection

Senate: 100 senators, all states 2 seats, elected for 6 years

• Can approve judges picks

• Filibuster, senate 60 votes to block laws from senate, budget reconciliation can’t be or judges

• Minority party protected

Congressional budget office: allows to assess impact on policies or budget without may rely on analysis from president which is biassed

Judicial branch:

• Federal and state courts

• Run parallel to each other and do own thing independently

• Federal courts enforce federal law and state courts enforce state laws

State crimes:

• Stealing

Federal crimes:

• Treason and terrorism

Federal law precedence: federal courts are more powerful than state laws and can overturn

Supreme court:

• Most important courts in the US with 9 judges and appointed for life

• Precedence made by supreme court

• Can shape law to some extent due to unclarity of some laws

Federal reserves: the bank of the US responsible for money supply and nominated by President and approved by senate

• Lowered supply leads to recession but less inflation

• Increase supply leads to boom but inflation

Social security:

• FDR made it, pension program and diabetes

• Pays as you go, part of salaries are taken for it

• Problems with it:

• Population issues as can not support due to ageing pop, declining birth rate and retirements

Declining trust in US government:

• Only 24% of Americans trust the government and bipartisan

• Was higher in 60s and 70s like 60+

• Issues:

• Creates toxic environment such as during pandemic

Increasing political polarisation in the US:

• Three prints = New York TImes and Washington Post and Wall Street journal

• Fox News and CNN

• Two Americans with Democrats and Republicans

• These are two different world in own country

• Disasters

• Pandemic such as vaccines with democrats or republican

• Foreign policy

• Before it was unaffected by party in power, people knew what was in interests

• Ukraine for example

East Asia

Hiroshima and Nagasaki:

• Manhattan project under FDR and then Truman

• To end war quickly use bomb to make surrender

• August 6th 1945 plane dropped the bomb on Hiroshima and many died

• Did not surrendered so dropped another on Nagasaki

• Then surrendered

Economic growth after WW2:

• Japan had large economic growth after WW2

• Devastated but rebounded quickly

• 1961 to 1969 the GDP growth = 10% a year

• 1970s slowed, but still good

• 1987 higher GDP per capita than USA

Japanese asset bubble:

Asset bubble: when the prices of an asset astronomically overvalued

• One consequence of growth, made asset bubble

• Japan had a housing bubble and stock market tripled

  • Value of all land was 4x as much as all US land

• Bubble burst when realized not worth it

• 1990s there was stagnation and has never recovered

Douglas MacArthur:

• General placed in charge of country after WW2 and emperor subjected to his authority

• Made reforms that people liked

Constitution in 1947:

• Made democracy with rights and women's rights

• Emperor almost no power

Article 9:

• Can not have war or army

• 1951 security treaty that says US has to aid Japan if attacked but not other way around

• Lets the US keep a check on China

Mao Zedong:

• Found of PRC 1949

• 1949 Mao declared founding of PRC

• Before

• Two main political from Kuomintang (Chan kai-shek) and the Communists (Mao)

• Communists won

• Good at revolution but reckless when having to make government policies

• Good, gender equality, abolished foot binding, made people more literate

Great Leap Forward:

• Caused by Mao, incompetence of his policies, little dissident

• Mao knew nothing about economics

1958 - 1961

• Mao wanted to double steel production in year

• Prove that communists could achieve great targets

• Led to famine

Causes:

• Diverted resources from agriculture to manufacturing

• Ordered all sparrows to die, led to no natural predators

Deng Xiaoping

• Mao's death created conditions for change

• Less repression, economic freedom

• Didn't like democracy so shot at Tiananmen Square 1989 protests

• Led to more authoritarian hardliners in party

Xi Jinping:

• Concentrating power in past years and most powerful leader since Mao

• What he did:

• No term limits, anti-corruption drive, predecessor was forced out of room and more repression

• Uses surveillance to control population like Xighurs

• Legitimacy kept by economic growth but if recession then people will hate

Situation with Taiwan:

• Taiwan was where nationalists went after war and was backed by the US

• Eisenhower vowed to protect them, until 1979 where recognize the CCP

• One China policy:

• China claims Taiwan is part of them

• US could not recognize Taiwan then and most do not recognize

• Works like country with passports and government and US had relations with them through and external organisation

• Us gives military aid to Taiwan