Introduction

• World population projection in 2011: 7 billion

• Challenges:

  • Global warming

  • Rapid increase in food prices

  • Extreme poverty

• Important authors:

  • Malthus

  • William Godwin

  • William Stanley Jevons

Concerns About Population in the 1960s

• 1960: population = 3 billion

• Unprecedented rate of population growth

• Led to concerns about population growth

How Unusual Was the Demography of the 1960s?

• Doubling times

  • 1960-1999: 39 years

  • Previous doubling time was 70 years!

  • Projection: increase of 33% in the next 39 years

  • World population growth rate will approach 0 by 2100

  • The world population growth will never double again in 40 years → 1960-2000 = unique experience in history!

  • Population growth rates

Why Was the Demography of the 1960s so Unusual?

• Cause: demographic transition

• Eg: South East Asia, Latin America

• CDRs are leveling off/rising in countries advanced in the demographic transition → population aging

• Changes in age structure

Three Big Concerns of the 1960s

Food Production

• Population will grow faster than food production, leading to starvation

• Not the case!

• India

• Sub-Saharan Africa: record for food production

Resource Depletion

• Rapid population growth would cause depletion of essential nonrenewable resources

• Julian Simon

• Human ingenuity

• Important nonrenewable resources cost the same today as 50 years ago

• Food prices

• Energy prices

• Non-energy prices more than doubled since 2000

• Price of non-energy commodities fell almost 50%

Poverty

• Rapid population growth would lead to increased poverty in low-income countries

• Decline of population in poverty from 1981-2005 → China

• Varies by region

• Decline in the absolute number in poverty

How Did We Survive?

Economic Factors

Market Responses

• Food production in Vietnam

• Market liberalization reforms *Market reforms in China, India…

Innovation

• Innovation in agriculture

• Norman Borlaug - Green Revolution

• Increased yields

• Yields have leveled off since 1990

• Technological advances

• Boserup effect

Globalization

• Increased production + distribution

• India

Demographic Factors

Urbanization

• Increase of people living in urban areas

• Rural-urban migration

Fertility decline

• Decline in the world fertility rate

• Variability in regions

Why Did Fertility Fall so Rapidly?

• Rapid declines in infant/child mortality

• Access to family planning programs

• Access to contraceptive

• Income, wages, education, and employment opportunities for women

• Bangladesh vs. Brazil

Investment in children

• Increases in education

• Thailand, Brazil, Kenya

Why Did Schooling Increase so Rapidly?

• South Africa

• Declining family size

The transition from Quantity to Quality

• Having small families + making large investments in their children

• Brazil

How We Really Survived?

Global Warming and Pollution

• No market mechanisms to punish polluters

• Sulfur dioxide emissions decreased

• Massive reductions in chlorofluorocarbons

Are Consumption Levels Sustainable?

• Increase in consumption levels