Lam 2011, How the World Survived the Population Bomb 

Introduction

• World population projection in 2011: 7 billion
• Challenges:
  • Global warming
  • Rapid increase in food prices
  • Extreme poverty
• Important authors:
  • Malthus
  • William Godwin
  • William Stanley Jevons

Concerns About Population in the 1960s

• 1960: population = 3 billion
• Unprecedented rate of population growth
• Led to concerns about population growth

How Unusual Was the Demography of the 1960s?

• Doubling times
  • 1960-1999: 39 years
  • Previous doubling time was 70 years!
  • Projection: increase of 33% in the next 39 years
  • World population growth rate will approach 0 by 2100
  • The world population growth will never double again in 40 years → 1960-2000 = unique experience in history!
  • Population growth rates

Why Was the Demography of the 1960s so Unusual?

• Cause: demographic transition
• Eg: South East Asia, Latin America
• CDRs are leveling off/rising in countries advanced in the demographic transition → population aging
• Changes in age structure

Three Big Concerns of the 1960s

Food Production

• Population will grow faster than food production, leading to starvation
• Not the case!
• India
• Sub-Saharan Africa: record for food production

Resource Depletion

• Rapid population growth would cause depletion of essential nonrenewable resources
• Julian Simon
• Human ingenuity
• Important nonrenewable resources cost the same today as 50 years ago
• Food prices
• Energy prices
• Non-energy prices more than doubled since 2000
• Price of non-energy commodities fell almost 50%

Poverty

• Rapid population growth would lead to increased poverty in low-income countries
• Decline of population in poverty from 1981-2005 → China
• Varies by region
• Decline in the absolute number in poverty

How Did We Survive?

Economic Factors

Market Responses

• Food production in Vietnam
• Market liberalization reforms *Market reforms in China, India…

Innovation

• Innovation in agriculture
• Norman Borlaug - Green Revolution
• Increased yields
• Yields have leveled off since 1990
• Technological advances
• Boserup effect

Globalization

• Increased production + distribution
• India

Demographic Factors

Urbanization

• Increase of people living in urban areas
• Rural-urban migration

Fertility decline

• Decline in the world fertility rate
• Variability in regions

Why Did Fertility Fall so Rapidly?

• Rapid declines in infant/child mortality
• Access to family planning programs
• Access to contraceptive
• Income, wages, education, and employment opportunities for women
• Bangladesh vs. Brazil

Investment in children

• Increases in education
• Thailand, Brazil, Kenya

Why Did Schooling Increase so Rapidly?

• South Africa
• Declining family size

The transition from Quantity to Quality

• Having small families + making large investments in their children
• Brazil

How We Really Survived?

Global Warming and Pollution

• No market mechanisms to punish polluters
• Sulfur dioxide emissions decreased
• Massive reductions in chlorofluorocarbons

Are Consumption Levels Sustainable?

• Increase in consumption levels

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