Key Points

• In 2015, the total world population was estimated to be 7.3 billion

• The UN estimates 8.4 billion by the year 2025, 9.7 billion by 2050

• Possibly a stable population of just over 10 billion by 2200

• The increases are occurring in less developed parts of the world that are currently least capable of supporting them

  • Population in the more developed world is excepted to remain unchanged

• A number of human geographers have suggested links between population numbers and problems such as disease, famine, and environmental deterioration

• Other scientists argue that improvements in human well-being have accompanied past increases through technological change

• Demography is the science that studies populations

  • The size and makeup of populations

  • The processes that influence the composition of populations

  • The links between populations and the larger human environments of which they are a part

Fertility

• All global changes in population size can be understood by reference to fertility and morality

• P1 = P0 + B – D

  • P1 = population at time 1

  • P0 = population at time 0 (before time 1)

  • B = number of births between times 0 and 1

  • D = number of deaths between times 0 and 1

• Fertility and mortality rates vary significantly

  • According to time and location

  • Both rates are affected by many different variables

• Migration into and out of that particular subdivision of the world

• P1 = P0 + B – D + I - E

  • I = number of immigrants to area between times 0 and 1

  • E = number of emigrants from area between times 0 and 1

Fertility Measures

• The simplest and most common measure of fertility is the crude birth rate (CBR)

  • The total number of live births in a given period for every 1000 people already living

• The 2014 CBR for the world was 20

• Historically, measures of CBR have typically ranged from a minimum of about 8 to a maximum of 55

  • A rough estimate of the biological maximum

• The CBR can be misleading because births are related to the total population and not to the cant is able to conceive

• To more accurately reflect underlying fertility patterns, we measure female fecundity

  • The ability of a woman to conceive

• The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman will have

  • Assuming she has children at the prevailing age-specific rates as she passes through the fecund years

• The age-specific measure of fertility is useful because child-bearing during the fecund years varies considerably with age

• The world TFT for 2014 was 2.5

  • Meaning the average woman has 2.5 children during her fecund years

• CBR is a factual measure reflecting what has happened

• TFR predicts that a woman will have the same number of children as do other women her age

• The impact of a particular CBR or TFR on population totals is related to mortality

• A TFR of between 2.1 and 2.5 is considered replacement-level fertility

  • It maintains a stable population

• If there were no early deaths the replacement level would be 2.0

  • Two parents replacing by their two children

• The level has to allow for the fact that females may die before giving birth

• The lower figure applies to areas with relatively low levels of mortality

  • Males dying before having children

  • Higher figures for areas with relatively high levels of morality

    • More females dying before having children

Factors Affecting Fertility

• The reproductive behavior of a population is affected by biological, economic, and cultural factors

• Human beings might be the only species that reproduce less when they are well fed

Biological Factors

• Age is the key biological factor in fecundity

• For females, fecundity begins at about age 15, and reaches a maximum in the late 20s, terminates in the late forties

• For males, fecundity begins at about age 15, peaking at age 20, and declines without a clear termination age

• Some females and males are sterile - incapable of reproduction

• Reproductive behavior is also affected by nutritional well-being

  • Populations in ill health are very likely to have impaired fertility

• Periods of famine reduce population growth by lessening fertility

  • As well as by increasing mortality

• Women with low levels of body fat tend to be less fecund than others

• Members of nomadic pastoral societies are characterized by low fertility

  • Particularly likely to have low levels of body fat because of a low-starch diet

Economic Factors

• Until recently, fertility changes in more developed countries were essentially part of the economic development process

• With increasing industrialization and urbanization, fertility declines

• Traditional societies are strongly pro-natalist

  • They favor large families

  • The family is a total production and consumption unit

• Modern societies emphasize small families and individual independence

• In economic terms, children once were valued for their contributions to the household but today represent an expensive

• The decision to have children is essentially a cost-benefit decision

• In the traditional setting, children are valuable both as productive agents and as sources of security for their parents in old age

• Neither of these factors is important in modern societies^

• The economic claim implies that any reductions in fertility are essentially caused by economic changes

• The idea is central to the demographic transition theory

Cultural Factors

• A host of complex and interrelated cultural factors also affect fertility

• It is frequently suggested that the reasons behind current reductions in fertility are primarily cultural rather than economic

• This suggestion is central to the fertility transition theory

• Most cultural groups recognize marriage as the most appropriate setting for reproduction

• There are several measures of nuptiality

• The age at which females marry is important because it may reduce the number of effective fecund years

• A female marrying at age 25 has “lost” 10 fecund years

• The most obvious instance of such loss was Ireland

  • In the 1940s, the average age at marriage for Irish women was 28 and for Irish men 33

  • High proportions of the population (32% women, 34% men) lost their fecund years

  • Since about 1971 the Irish people have tended to marry earlier and more universally

• Late marriage and non-marriage are usually explained by reference to social organization and economic aspirations

• Other cultures actively encourage early marriage

  • Some Latin American countries have legal marriage ages as low as 12 for females and 14 for males

• Delayed marriage and celibacy are uncommon throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America

• Some of the recent success in reducing fertility in China can be explained by the government requirement that marriage be delayed until age 25 for females and 28 for males

• Fertility is also affected by contraceptive use

• Attempts to reduce fertility within marriage have a long history

• The civilizations of Egypt, Greece, and Rome all used contraceptive techniques

• Today, contraceptives are used around the world but especially in more developed countries

• The less developed countries typically have lower rates of contraceptive use

  • Most evidence shows that the rates are increasing

• The practice of contraception is closely related to government attitudes and religion

• Most of the world’s people live in countries that actively encourage limits to fertility

• Only recently as 1960 only India and Pakistan had active programs to reduce fertility

• Abortion is a cultural factor affecting fertility

  • The deliberate termination of an unwanted pregnancy

• It is estimated that, for every 3 births in the world, at least 1 pregnancy is terminated

  • In Russia, about 66% are terminated

• Only about half of the estimated 45 million abortions performed annually in the world are legal

• Many government countries actively try to either promote abortion or discourage ir their own pragmatic reasons

• China’s liberal abortion law reflects the need for population control

  • Abortion is obligatory for women whose pregnancies violate government population policies

• Sweden has a liberal stance that abortion is a human right

• In countries with a dominant faith in either Catholicism or Islam → abortion is either denied or limited to instances in which the woman’s life is threatened

• About 40% of women live in countries with very restrictive abortion laws

• Abortion is a more complex moral question than contraception

• Abortion is a long-standing practice, but still subject to condemnation

  • Usually on religious or moral grounds

• Abortion is one of the most hotly debated biological, ethical, social, and political issues

  • In countries such as Canada, Australia, the UK, and especially the US

• UN documents do not refer to abortion as a right because of the opposition of some member countries

Variations in Fertility

• Spatial variations in fertility correspond closely to those in levels of economic development

  • This does not necessarily mean that economic factors are the key cause

• Modernization and economic development have been closely related to lower levels of fertility

  • Mainly since the onset of the Industrial Revolution

• At the broad regional level, the more developed world had a CBR of 11, and a TFR of 1.6 in 2014

• The less developed world had a CBR of 22 and a TFR of 2.6

• Italy was among the group countries with a low fertility → CBR of 9 and a TFR of 1.4

• Liberia had a CBR of 35 and a TFR of 4.7

• Fertility rates in the less developed world are decreasing and the reasons are more cultural than economic

• There is evidence of declining fertility in several countries in the more developed world

• There is usually a clear distinction between urban (low) areas and rural (high) areas

  • This distinction can be found in all countries, regardless of development levels

• Fertility within a country is higher for those with low mes and for those with limited education

Mortality

Mortality Measures

• Mortality may be measured in a variety of ways

• The simplest is the crude death rate → total number of deaths in a given period for every 1000 people living

• The CDR for the world in 2014 was 8

• Measures of CDR typically ranged from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 50

• The CDR does not take into account the fact that the probability of dying is closely related to age

• Death rates are usually highest for the very young and very old

  • Produces a characteristic J-shaped curve

  • Other morality measures consider the age structure of the population

• The infant mortality rate (IMR) is the number of deaths of infants under 1 year old per 1,000 live births in a given year

• The world IMR for 2014 was 38

  • Figures for individual countries ranged from as low as 1.8 (Finland) and as high as 116 (Central African Republic)

• The IMR is sensitive to cultural and economic conditions

  • Declining with improved medical and health services

  • Declines with better nutrition

    • Reductions in the IMR usually precede overall mortality decline

• Infant mortality is declining because of measles vaccinations, mosquito nets, and increased rates of breast-feeding

• Life expectancy is the average number of years to be lived from birth

• World life expectancy in 2014 was 71

Factors Affecting Mortality

• Humans are mortal

• It is theoretically possible for the human population to attain a CBR of zero for an extended period → not the same for CDR

• The World Health Organization has recognized some 850 specific causes of death

• Mortality generally reflects the socio-economic status

  • High LE statistics → high-quality living, working conditions, nutrition, sanitation, widely available medical services

• When a disease is prevalent, mortality increases

  • The most dramatic example in recent years is AIDS

• Mortality is higher when countries experience conflict

Variations in Mortality

• Many die not as a result of aging but rather as a result of environmental conditions and/or lifestyle

• The world pattern for CDR shows much less variation than does that for CBR

  • Reflection of the general availability of at least minimal healthcare facilities throughout the world

• LE figures are more sensitive to the availability of food and healthcare facilities than death rates

• Low LE statistics are found in tropical countries in Africa and South and Southeast Asia

• High LE statistics are particularly common in Europe and North America

• Mortality measures markedly within countries

  • UK, Canada, US, and Australia → Groups have higher CDRs and IMRs and lower LEs than the population as a whole

  • Differences might reflect the social inequality of death

• In the US, the national IMR in 1993 was 8.6

  • Washington DC reported a figure of 21.1

    • A population in which blacks comprise a high percentage of the population

  • South Dakota and Alabama (a large Native American population/large black population) had a figure of 13.3

• Black babies in the US are almost twice as likely to die in their first year as white babies

  • A state of affairs that has remained essentially unchanged for the last 50 years

• In England, a 2014 report showed that poor people live nine years less than the richest

Natural Increase

• The rate of natural increase measures the rate of population growth by subtracting the CDR from the CBR

• In 2014 the world CBR was 20 and the CDR was 8

  • Producing an RNI of 12 per 1000

    • This figure is typically expressed as a percentage of the total population

• In 2013, the world’s population increased by about 86 million people

  • 143 million births and 57 million deaths

• The size of the annual increase has been relatively constant in recent years

  • The world population is still increasing but at a slowly decreasing rate

• The reduction in the RNI began about 1990 because world fertility was declining

• The decrease in the rate of annual increase is very significant

  • RNI data takes into account only mortality and fertility, not migration

  • They generally do not reflect the actual population change of any area smaller than the earth

• Fertility is declining in parts of both the less and the more developed worlds

• The number of females of reproductive age continues to rise

• The total world population continues to grow rapidly because of population momentum

Regional Variations

• Low RNI data rates prevail Japan and in many European countries

• High RNI rates are concentrated in tropical African countries

• Large populations grow faster than small ones

  • Even when they have lower fertility rates

  • Simply because the population is larger

  • China and India are home to about 37% of the world’s population → Even a small increase in fertility in one of these countries will mean a significant increase in the total world population

Doubling Time

• Related to the RNI is the concept of doubling time

  • The number of years needed to double the size of the population

    • Assuming a constant RNI

• Minor variations in RNI can significantly affect the doubling time

• An RNI of o (where CDR and CBR are equal) results in a stable population with an infinite doubling time

• An RNI of 2.5% produces a doubling time of 20 years

• 70 divided by the RNI provides a good approximation of doubling time

Government Policies

• Governments often try, directly or indirectly, to control deaths, births, and migrations

• All policies controlling deaths have the same objective → to reduce mortality

  • Mostly adopted for economic and humanitarian reasons

• Policies include measures to provide medical care and safe working conditions

• Many governments actively raise mortality levels at specific times (e.g. during war)

• Many governments do not ensure that all members of their population receive equal access to the same quality of health care

  • This is true throughout the world regardless of levels of economic development

• Many governments actively sought to influence fertility

  • The policies in place may be a major factor affecting fertility on the national scale

• Unlike mortality policies, those relating to fertility have varying objectives

• Most governments choose not to establish any formal policies

  • Indifference to the issue or divided public opinion

  • Actively pro-natalist

  • Actively anti-natalist

Pro-Natalist Policies

• Pro-natalist policies typically exist in countries dominated by a Catholic or Islamic theology

  • In countries where the politically dominant ethnic group is in danger of being numerically overtaken by an ethnic minority

  • In countries where a larger population is perceived as necessary for economic or strategic reasons

• Singapore and Malaysia began to encourage fertility increases in the 1980s actively

  • The two countries had succeeded in lowering their TFRs by following an anti-natalist line

  • In 1984, decided that new policies were required to reverse the trend and increase fertility again

• In Singapore, this reversal was related to the economic difficulties perceived to be the result of reducing the TFR to 1.6

• There was a perceived need to provide a larger market for domestic industrial production and a larger workforce

• The extent to which such pro-natalist policies are successful is debatable; the 2014 TFR for Singapore was only 1.2 and for Malaysia 2.1

• Other countries are greatly concerned about low fertility

  • In 2006 President Vladimir Putin stated that the situation in Russia was critical

    • In recent years, medals have been handed out to very large families

      • In 2010 a family with 17 children was awarded

    • In 2008 the president of Turkmenistan announced financial incentives for women who have more than eight children

    • Japan also has introduced incentives to encourage encouraging a baby boom

• The concern in this country is explicitly economic

  • It is feared that an aging population supported by fewer working people would keep the country in a state of permanent recession

• Canada and Japan have similar practices of subsidized daycare with many different employers but have no luck in increasing fertility

• One tactic that helped to increase fertility was in Georgia by the head of the Georgian Orthodox Church

  • Patriarch Ilia II issued a promise in 2007 that he would personally baptize any baby born to parents who already had two children

  • There was an immediate 20% increase in births in 2008

• More countries adopt pro-natalist policies if their fertility declines to the point where economic, political, and cultural consequences are seen as unacceptable

Anti-Natalist Policies

• Most common policies relating to births are currently anti-natalist

• Since about 1960, many of the less developed countries have initiated policies designed to reduce fertility

  • Overpopulation is a severe danger

  • Carrying capacity has been (or will be) exceeded

• These policies ignore the fact that carrying capacity is not static

• India was the first country to intervene actively to reduce fertility

  • Beginning in 1952, the government introduced programs designed to encourage contraceptive use and sterilization

    • The first program offered financial incentives

    • Other programs may have been coercive or educational

• Fertility rates have declined, but the 2014 RNI of 1.5% is clear that the programs have not achieved their desired results

• China has made great strides toward reducing fertility

  • The 2014 RNI was over 0.5% and the doubling time is 140 years

• The causes of fertility decline are debated

  • Attributed to the programs introduced in the late 1970s by the communist government

    • Families were restricted to having one child

    • Marriage was prohibited until the age of 28 for men and 25 for women

  • Contraception, abortion, and sterilization were free

  • Financial incentives for families with only one child

  • Penalties for families with multiple children

• Chinese government formally abandoned One-Child Policy in 2015

• Studies say fertility was declining because of the education of women, better health care, the ongoing process of urbanization and industrialization, and social/economic development

The Better Policy?

• No policy → People are allowed to determine how many children they have

  • Anti-natal policies have destroyed lives and are derived from imperialist ideas of supremacy and the presumed ignorance of others

• The most compelling reason not to have an anti-natal policy is that such policies may not be needed

• With education and improved lifestyles, women choose to have fewer children

  • They do not need to be told to or coerced into doing so

• Many anti-natal policies were put in place by government officials on the arrogant grounds that people do not know what’s best for themselves

The Composition of a Population

Age and Sex Structure

• Fertility and mortality vary significantly with age

• The growth of a population is affected by the population’s age composition

  • Age composition is dynamic

• It is usual to represent age and sex compositions with a population pyramid through three pattern suggestions

  • If a population is rapidly expanding, a high proportion of the population will be in the younger age groups

  • If a population is relatively stable, each age group, barring the older groups that are losing numbers, is similarly sized

  • If a population is declining, the younger groups will be smaller than the older groups

• Population pyramids distinguish males and females and divide them into five-year categories

  • Each bar in the pyramid indicates the percentage of the total population that a particular group makes up

• Discussions of the number of males and females in a population refer to the sex ratio

• Sex ratio data for individual countries frequently are estimate as 101 males for each 100 females

  • In most parts of the world, about 104–108 boys are born for each 100 females

• The number of girls is reduced through abortion and female infanticide

• The surplus of males at birth is reduced through time as male mortality rates are generally higher and male life expectancy generally lower than females

• In most countries, the number of males in the population will be overtaken by the number of females by middle age

  • The elderly population usually is predominantly female

• Sex ratios vary with age

Global Population Aging

• In the year 2000, people under 14 were outnumbered by people over 60

• Older individuals come to make up a proportionally larger share of the total population is occurring more often around the world

  • This is known as population aging

• In 1900, about 1% of the world’s population was over the age of 60

  • By 2014, this figure had increased to about 12%

  • The estimate for 2050 is 21%

• The older population is growing faster than the total population in most parts of the world

• The world’s population is expected to increase from 29 years in 2014 to about 38 years in 2050

• Population aging is a global phenomenon, but there are regional differences between the more and less developed worlds in their fertility decline and increasing life expectancy

• Fertility decline started later in the less developed world but is proceeding more rapidly

• Life expectancy increases are lower throughout the less developed world

• It is estimated that, by 2050, 10 countries will have a median age above 50

History of Population Growth

• Early human populations increased in some periods and declined in others

• The principal constraints on growth were climate and the availability of food

• Humans gradually increased their freedom as a consequence of the development of culture

• Cultural adaption has enabled humans to increase in numbers and avert extinction (so far)

Reasons for Growth

• Monogamy increased the chances that children would survive

• The cumulative effect of clothing, fire, speech, etc. was not great

• At this earlier time, the human population totaled 4 million

  • The rapid growth since then has not been regular

  • There have been several relatively brief growth periods and longer intervals of slow growth

• Each growth people can be explained by a major cultural advance

The Rise of Agriculture

• Beginning about 12000 years ago was the agricultural revolution

• As agriculture spread, the first human economic activities of hunting and gathering became marginal

• The first region of high population density appeared 9000 years ago

• By 4000 BCE agriculture and related population centers had developed on the Mediterranean coast, European locations, Mexico, Peru, India, and China

• The world population reached an estimated 250 million around the beginning of the Common Era

• Population numbers had changed little, increased or decreasing depending on cultural advances and physical constraints before the agricultural innovation

• Following the agriculture introduction, the birth rate remained high but death rates fluctuated

• The 250 million at the beginning of the Common Era had reached 500 million by 1650

  • The pace of growth remained slow in the absence of any major cultural advance

The Rise of Industry

• From about 1650 onward, the world population increased rapidly

  • Improved agricultural production

  • Beginning of a demographic shift to cities

  • Industrial Revolution

• This development initiated a rapid growth and diffusion of technologies

• Industry replaced agriculture as the dominant productive sector

• The agricultural revolution had involved more effective use of solar energy in plant growth

• Large-scale exploitation of new sources of energy

  • The result was a rapid reduction in death rates and a significant drop in birth rates

• The world population increased to 680 million in 1700, 954 million in 2800, and 1.6 billion in 1900

The Current Situation

• The growth spurred by industrialization has ceased in the more developed world

• The total world population continues to increase substantially

• The world population growth rate has fallen from a late 1960s high of 2.04% to 1.2% per year

• The world population will grow less rapidly in this century than it did in the twentieth

  • Although it will continue to increase substantially because of population momentum

• Numbers have increased in response to cultural and technological advances

• The dramatic increase since 1650 reflects the death rate falling before the birth rate did

Population Projections

• Predicting population growth is hazardous

• Despite some unimpressive precedents, there is good reason to suggest we are in a position to make better forecasts

• The principal reason both fertility and mortality rates now lie within narrower ranges than previously

• Current UN projections suggest a world population of 9.7 billion for 2050

  • This projection assumes that the mortality transition will be complete at that time

  • Such that the CDR is approximately equal throughout the world

• The less developed world might see the fertility transition completed by the year 2050

  • The assumption of a continually declining TFR may be questioned

  • Some evidence suggests that this decline has stalled since contraceptive needs are not being met/large families are still preferred

  • It is possible that population numbers will collapse because of limits to growth

• Many environments and ecologists argue that there are definite limits to the growth both of populations and economies

• The earth is finite and many resources are not renewable

• In the early 1970s. the authors of reports argued the world population was likely to exceed world carrying capacity

• The Population Bomb similarly anticipated widespread famine, raging pandemics, and possibly nuclear war by about 2000 as a result of worldwide competition for scarce resources

  • This thesis is articulated by catastrophists

• According to other perspectives, technological advances will make new resources available as old resources are depleted

• Some believe people to be the ultimate resource

• Japan has few resources apart from people and that resource is slowly decreasing

• According to some neo-liberal commentators, a slowdown in population growth will lead to a slowdown in economic growth and therefore is to be avoided

• The ideological debate between the left-leaning catastrophists and the right-leaning cornucopians is far from over

Explaining Population Growth

• Five different theories and models to depict population growth

The S-Shaped Curve Model

• All species have a great capacity to reproduce

  • Regulated by space, food supplies, disease, and social strife

• Produced under carefully controlled experimental conditions

• The growth begins slowly, then increases rapidly, and finally levels out at some ceiling

• Such growth curves never actually occur in nature

• It appears to be unusual for any population to remain steady at some ceiling level

• A more characteristic final stage would involve a series of oscillations

• Various scientists predicted that world human population growth would respond to the S-shaped curve

  • It is possible and suggested that the history of the human population growth will reflect an S-shaped curved by 2200

• Using the curve as a predictive tool is risky

  • Does not take into account the variety of cultural and economic factors that affect human populations

• Stable populations result not from natural law but from human decisions

Malthusian Theory

• Thomas Robert Malthus was born in England during a time of technological and industrialization population growth

• He opposed the prevailing school of economics thought

  • Mercantilism

    • Explicitly pro-natalist

    • More births → more wealth due to the labor force

• Malthus expressed his views in An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

• His work is usefully presented in terms of two axioms and a hypothesis

  • Axiom 1: Food is necessary for human existence; further, food production increases at an arithmetic rate, i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5...

  • Axiom 2: Passion between the sexes is necessary and will continue; further, population increases at a geometric rate, i.e. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16...

  • Hypothesis: Population growth will always create stress on the means of subsistence

• According to Malthus, this conclusion applies to all living things, plants, or animals

  • The inevitable result of the different growth rates of food supplies and population

• As rational beings, humans theoretically have the capacity to anticipate and therefore avoid the consequences by deliberately reducing fertility

  • Through the adoption of what Malthus called preventive checks

• Malthus believed that humans are incapable of voluntarily adopting such checks

  • They would only do so under the pressure of extreme circumstances

    • War

    • Pestilence

    • Famine

  • The human future would be one of famine, vice, and misery

• Malthus’s central concern was an imbalance between population and food

  • Malthus acknowledged in later editions of his work that the rates of population and food increase could not be specified

• There is no particular justification for the specific rates of increase proposed in the two axioms

• Malthus was concerned with overpopulation

  • He believed life-threatening circumstances happen in an overpopulated area with food and necessities are in short supply

• Malthus failed to anticipate that food supplies could be increased by raising the supply of land, fertilizers, crop strains, etc.

  • Also didn’t predict contraception would become normal

• Malthus’s theory lost favor in the mid-nineteenth century

  • Neo-Malthusian theory relevant to the less developed world

Marxist Theory

• The earliest and most powerful critic of Malthusian theory was Marx

• Marx objected to its rigorous axioms/hypothesis

• Marx believed that population growth must be considered in regard to the prevailing mode of production in a given society

• Marx felt Malthus represented a bourgeois viewpoint

  • The primary aim was to maintain existing social inequalities

• Poverty - Malthus → population growth / Marx → capitalist system

  • For Marx, the problem was a resource distribution problem

• Marx felt surplus population workers represented a “reserve” labor force

• According to Marx, capitalism depends on the existence of those workers to keep wages low and profits high

  • A surplus population is an inevitable consequence of capitalism

Boserup Theory

• Ester Boserup’s writings on historical changes in agriculture in substance

  societies

• Subsistence farmers select farming systems that permit them to maximize their leisure time

  • Will change these systems only if the population increases

  • It becomes necessary to increase the food supply accordingly

• Boserup argued that population growth requires farming to be intensified

  • By reducing the amount of land left fallow

  • Employing multi-cropping for food increases to feed additional population

• Though population increase prompts an increase in gross food output → food output per capita decreases

• A series of negative changes ensue because most agricultural areas are already areas of poverty and often limited agricultural technology

• Malthus → Saw population dependent on food supply / Boserup → Proposed population as the independent variable

• Boserup's theory is more applicable to a less developed world than more

The Demographic Transition

• The demographic transition model is a descriptive generalization

  • Changing levels of fertility and mortality over time in the contemporary, more developed world

• Based on known facts rather than specific axioms or assumptions

• It does not offer a bold, provocative perspective or hypothesis

• The first stage of the demographic transition is characterized by a high CBR and a high CDR

  • The two rates are approximately equal

• High death rates are due to a lack of clean drinking water and an effective sewerage system

• Infant mortality is high and life expectancy low

  • High birth rates where there is no incentive to reduce birth

• Low-income agricultural economy

  • Population growth is limited with 5000-year-long doubling times

• CDR becomes reduced dramatically as a result of urbanization

  • This reduction is not accompanied by a parallel reduction in CBR

  • Consequently, the RNI is high and population growth is rapid

• There are several specific reasons for the decline in deaths

  • Improvements in agricultural technologies

  • Introduction of new crops from the Americas

  • Improved public health

  • A decline in infant mortality → more youthful populations

• The specific details of CDR decline are debated

  • The result of voluntary decisions to reduce family size

• Evidence suggests that voluntary birth control is related to declining death rates

• The RNI falls as the CBR approaches the already low CDR

  • The fact that this occurs contradicts the Malthusian claim that death rates are the key to explaining changes in population

• The process of population momentum ensures that the population continues to increase for some years following the onset of the low rates

• Key demographic features include fertility rates below replacement level and an aging population

• The demographic transition model accurately describes the experience of the more developed world

• ”Is the demographic transition a valuable predictive tool?”

  • Compelling evidence suggests that the fertility decline is occurring in the less developed world

Distribution and Density

• The preceding account of population growth through time has paid little specific attention to human migration

• Population distributions and densities → Where people are located/How many

• Gathering a census is not as easy as it may sound

  • The required data are not available for all countries

  • The data available may not always be reliable

  • Data collected may reflect different divisions than the ones we need

  • Can often suggest an inaccurate picture of reality

Distribution of World Population

• Population distribution by major world region leads with Asia at 60.01%

  • 58% prediction for 2050

  • Africa holds 15.7%

    • Predicted 20.7% by 2050

• India is projected to overtake China in 2028 as the most populous country

• Russia and Japan are both expected to lose population between 2014 and 2050

  • Due to low fertility

• Of the 10 most populous countries, Bangladesh is the most densely populated

Migration

• The distribution and density of the world population increase

• Migration → population movement

• Early pre-agricultural humans moved out of Africa to populate all major land masses of the world except Antarctica

  • Expanded the resource base available

  • Facilitated overall population increases

  • Stimulated cultural change

• Migration may be defined as a particular kind of mobility that involves a spatial movement of residence

• Migration reports include various residential factors

  • The time spent in the new location

  • The political boundaries crossed

  • The geographic character of the two areas involved

  • The cultural and economic characteristics of those moving

  • Some consequences of movement

Why People Migrate

Push-Pull Logic

• Useful generalization

• People move from one location to another because they consider the new location to be more favorable

• The key idea of inequality from place to place

• Migration location preferences are a matter of individual judgment

• Only a small percentage of the population will decide to migrate

• Migration decisions can be conceptualized as involving a push and a pull

• Push → Being located in an unattractive area / Pull → Awareness of an attractive area

• Tyoucaky elements can be sorted into four categories

  • Economic

    • Differences in income

    • Push → Low income / Pull → High income

    • Relative availability of agricultural land

    • Threatened life due to inadequate food supplies

  • Political

    • People have felt obliged to seek refuge in another country

  • Cultural

    • Areas migrants perceive similar in terms of language and religion

    • Locations more likely to make friends

    • Locations where relatives have migrated previously

  • Environmental

    • Relative attractiveness

    • Some areas may be prone to flooding and desertification

    • Migrations have been toward temperate climatic areas

• Push factors at one place depend on pull factors in others

• Push-pull has serious limitations

  • It assumes that people invariable behave by the logic of a theory

• It is unable to explain why some people stay in an unfavorable area when a more favorable one is available

Laws of Migration

• An attempt to formulate specific “laws” of migration was made in the late nineteenth century by E.G. Ravenstein

• Ravenstein’s laws are not laws in a formal, positivistic sense but generalizations with varying degrees of applicability

• The 11 generalizations are still valuable concepts today

• These generalizations fail to take into account individual differences

The Mobility Transition

• Zelinsky’s theory coined the term mobility transition

• This term is derived from the concept of demographic transition

• Zelinsky proposed 5 phases of temporal changes in migration

  • The pre-modern traditional society

    • Minimal residential migration

    • Limited human mobility

    • High birth rates, high and fluctuating death rates

  • The early transitional society

    • Numerically significant migration

    • Rural-to-urban and overseas movements

    • Mass movements associated with industrialization

    • Continuing high birth rates, rapidly falling death rates

  • The late transitional society

    • Residential mobility continues apace

    • Urban-to-urban movement is significant

    • International migration increases

    • Increased migration to the more developed world

  • The advanced society

    • Zelinsky’s attempt to predict future trends

    • Most migration is between urban centers

• Summary of temporal changes in mobility,

• Zelinsky’s theory can be seen as an example of developmentalism

  • A “geography of ladders”

• “the world is viewed as a series of hearth areas out of which modernization diffuses, so that the Third World’s future can be explicitly read from the First World’s past and present in idealized maps and graphs of developmental social change” (Taylor, 1989: 310)

• Reflecting global processes as well are those taking place within the country

A Behavioral Explanation

• Centers on the behavior of individuals rather than on aggregate behaviors

• Place utility is a measure of the extent to which an individual is satisfied with particular locations

• The place utility that people attribute to their current place of residence is much better than their old location

• Place utility is an individually focused version of push-pull logic

  • A concept introduced by Wolpert who argued that it was necessary to research an individual’s spatial preferences

• All preferences are based on perceptions, not objective facts

• All people have mental maps

  • Mental images of various places that can contribute to migration decisions

Moorings

• Migration research is in danger of being left behind by recent developments in social theory

• Migration reflects a personal decision made within a larger political and economic framework

  • Drawing on theories of human motivation as developed in social psychology

  • Putting greater emphasis on the cultural influences on migration

• Moorings → Issues through which individuals give meaning to their lives

• Individuals’ perception of their current location and how much they value it

• Increasingly focus on conceptual formulations that incorporate both the personal and cultural aspects of the migration decision

The Selectivity of Migration

• Migration is a selective process

• We are not all equally affected by the general factors prompting migration

• Factors influencing migration are age. martial status, gender, occupation, and education

  • Older adolescents or young adults

  • Single adults

  • Males are typically more migratory

  • Migrants have higher levels of education

  • Higher-skilled workers are more likely to move

• Useful relationship between life cycle and the likelihood of individual migration

• Often a substantial difference between what people would like to do and what they can

• Potential migrants need to consider the economic and personal costs

  • May be unable to pay for the move

  • Some may not be able to move because of health, age, or family circumstances

Types of Migration (by Peterson)

Primitive Migration

• A specific instance of adaption to the environment

• People respond to an unfavorable environment by leaving in search of a better one

• Pre-industrial societies tend to make adaption decisions on a group not individual basis

• Hunting and gathering groups might migrate regularly as the resources of an area are depleted or as game animals move on

• Some agricultural groups might move as soil loses fertility

• Populations increase in size so additional land is needed

• Pre-industrial societies had migration as a normal part of the human search for appropriate environments

Forced Migration

• Slavery was a significant institution in early civilizations

• Slaves were forced to migrate from areas occupied by the Romans

• The Europeans who colonized the Caribbean also relied on slave labor

• As many as 11 million Africans were moved as slaves between 1451 and 1870

• Workers from China, Java, and India were shipped to European-owned plantations

• The workers were forced instead of voluntary engagement

• Jewish populations were forced to migrate by Nazi Germany

• A variant of forced migration is when the migrant has some voice, however small, in the decision-making process

• The line separating impelled and forced migration is not obvious

• Most forced and impelled migration is related to the actions of others who directly influence the migration decision

Free Migration

• The person has the choice to either stay or move

• Much free migration takes place within rather than between countries

• Climate and job opportunities are two reasons for migration between the north and south

• Rural to urban areas and from central to suburban zones

• Migration leads to a significant change in the structure and composition of local populations

• Most migration within countries continues to be primarily economic in motivation

  • Employment, income potential, and the housing market

• Individuals’ migration decisions often reflect their assessments of relative place utility

• It is estimated that about 40% of people in less developed countries want to emigrate

  • Why immigration controls are in place in more developed countries

    • Concerns about a flood of migrants taking jobs or collecting welfare benefits

Mass Migration

• Free migrations prompted by push-pull factors that are widely experienced/large group

• Movement from densely settled countries to less densely settled ones

• The period between 1800 and 1914 when some 70 million people migrated from Europe

  • Migration closely related to the demographic and technological changes

  • Relieved Europe of some population pressures

• In 1800, people of European origin totaled 210 million

  • By 1900, the total was 560 million

• This historically brief period of movement had wide-ranging effects in areas both of origin and of destination

  • Redistributing a large number of people

  • Bringing into contact many previously separate groups

• Free and mass migration lies at the root of some of the most difficult political issues in the world

  • Particularly those involving the territorial claims of various minority groups

Illegal Migration

• Some people become categorized as “illegal” through policy changes or the complexities of maintaining legal residency

• Some migrants deliberately violate immigration laws

• Illegal movement is the result of desperate push factors combined with irresistible pull factors

• Much illegal movement takes place between more developed countries

• Most illegal immigrants are young, clustered in urban areas, and involved in industries such as construction and hospitality

• The illegal immigrant population in the US is estimated at more than 11 million

• One of the best-known cases of illegal immigration is that of Mexicans moving into the US border

• Approximately 10,000 Chinese illegal immigrants enter the US each year

• The countries of the EU may have as many as three million illegal immigrants

• Major movements of illegal immigrants occur within Asia

• International migration, legal and illegal, reflects both global inequalities and globalization processes

  • A growing interdependence among the world’s countries

  • A web of international relations that is becoming ever more complicated

Conclusion

• For many human geographers, an awareness of population is the key building block for any human geographic study

• Without population awareness, it would be hard to discuss topics affecting humanity

  • Global inequality

  • Political conflict

  • Changing agriculture

  • Urban growth

  • Industrial activity

• Our current population of 7.2 billion is projected to become 9.7 by 2050

  • What will be the consequences of this anticipated population increase?

• The world population continues to increase markedly but at a decreasing rate such that the population may stabilize at about 10 billion people in 2200.

• Women in less developed countries are having fewer children, and the explanation appears to be that women are better educated and more empowered than in the past.

• Declining fertility and longer life expectancy are causing populations to age.

• It appears that government attempts to either decrease or increase fertility have had little impact (with the possible exception of the one-child policy in China). Rather, fertility varies because of the decisions that women are able to make.

• The population is distributed unevenly on the earth, with areas of high density related especially to agricultural potential.

• The current distribution of people is also an outcome of a long history of migration