GEOS1100 LEC3

Introduction

Instructor welcomes students and mentions the purpose of the session.
Addressing questions from the previous lecture before diving into today’s content.

Navigation on Blackboard
- All course materials can be found under "Learning Resources."
- Resources are organized by lectures and modules.
- Lecture slides are typically uploaded the day before lecture.

Understanding the stages of the Demographic Transition Model is crucial.
Stages:
- Stage 1: High birth and death rates stabilize population at young, rural societies.
- Stage 2: Decline in mortality leads to rapid population growth.
- Stage 3: Fertility rates decline, population growth starts to stabilize.
- Stage 4/5: Population becomes older and stable or declines in urban settings.
Key Understanding:
- Decline in mortality precedes decline in fertility.
- Population growth can increase by ratios of three to four times during stages two and three.

Instructor discusses demographic transition in Palestine as a UN observer state.
Relevant data includes information from East Jerusalem, West Bank, and Gaza.
Demographic Stage Classification: Likely between Stage 2 and 3 based on fertility and mortality rates.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CDR):
- Important metrics on demographic transition graph.
- Death rates show spikes due to conflicts such as the recent war.
Natural Increase: Difference between births and deaths that can be positive or negative.
Migration:
- Migration needs to be added to the population model for accuracy.
- Net Migration: More immigrants than emigrants results in a positive net migration.

Focus on mortality as the initiating factor in demographic transitions.
Discussing the importance of understanding fertility, mortality, and migration for population changes.
Demographic Accounting Equation:
- Population at future time = Population at present time + Births - Deaths.
Breaking down the components of this equation at country and regional levels.

Overview of critical measures of mortality and their limitations.
Importance of the Crude Death Rate (CDR):
- Calculated as the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals.
- May misrepresent actual mortality trends because it ignores population age structure.
Introduction to Infant Mortality Rate (IMR):
- Critical indicator reflecting health conditions in a country; higher in less developed regions.
Life Expectancy: Average life years expected at birth, and can be misleading depending on current death conditions.

Patterns of life expectancy changes throughout history.
Increasing life expectancy correlated to agricultural advancements, living conditions, and healthcare milestones over time.
Notable declines due to pandemics and wars (e.g., Black Death, Spanish Influenza).

Related to demographic transition, focusing on changes in causes of death over time.
Four stages of epidemiological transition reflect shifts in mortality causes:
- Stage 1: Infectious disease and famine.
- Stage 2: Decline of pandemics but prevalence of infectious diseases still high.
- Stage 3: Rise of degenerative diseases linked to lifestyle choices (e.g., heart disease, diabetes).
- Stage 4: Continued prevalence of degenerative diseases, but with delayed age at death due to medical advancements.

Discussion on recent pandemics including COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS.
Analysis of how pandemics have historically affected life expectancy and demographic shifts, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Importance of data analysis in understanding the current pandemic's impact on mortality.

Importance of considering both historical context and current data in demographic studies.
Encouragement to ask questions as part of the learning process.
Reminder for workshops and final exam preparation focusing on demographic and epidemiological transitions.

0.0(0)

Chat with Kai

View the linked audio