Responding to Climate Change - The Netherlands

Netherlands and Climate Change: A Detailed Overview

Connection and Syllabus

• This content relates to Unit 2, Section 3: Responding to Climate Change, specifically focusing on climate change mitigation and decision-making processes.
• Two contrasting societies are examined for their vulnerability to climate change:
  • Bangladesh (case study covered in class).
  • Rotterdam, Netherlands (MIC/HIC/city/region facing climate change hazards).

A. Map of Country and Regional Focus: Netherlands & Rotterdam

Statistics

Characteristics

• Ageing, educated, urbanized, high-skilled (even in agriculture), pro-government action at national, local, regional (EU) levels.

B. Climate Change Induced Hazards

Rising Sea Levels

Netherlands

• 26% of the Netherlands is below sea level.
• Only 50% of the land exceeds sea level.
• Approximately 9 million people (almost half the population) live below sea level or along the 350km coast.
• Sea levels are rising at an average of 33mm per year.
• Predicted rise of 80-100 cm by 2100.
• Without the Delta Programme, 60% of the country could be underwater.

Bangladesh

• 28% of the population lives on the coast.
• Two-thirds live less than 5 meters above sea level.
• Predicted sea-level rise of 50 cm by 2050.
• Estimated loss of 12-16% of land if sea level rises by 1 meter.
• By 2050, sea level will have risen over 17% of the land, displacing 20 million people.
• Rising sea levels lead to salinization, contaminating water sources and hindering crop growth.

Increased Precipitation

Netherlands

• 25% increase in mean annual precipitation.
• Rainfall increased by 20% since 1950.
• It rains about 8% of the time.
• 35% increase in mean winter precipitation.
• 16% increase in mean summer precipitation, with a strong increase since the early 1980s.
• Sharp contrast between coastal regions and the east & southeast of the country.
  • Significant increase in summer precipitation in coastal regions; little change in the east & southeast.
• Strong increase in the intensity and likelihood of local precipitations.
• Drier summer months put pressure on storage and freshwater availability.

Bangladesh

• Average precipitation of around 2,700
  ewline mm (routinely in the top ten worldwide).
• 80% of rainfall occurs during the monsoon season.
• Average precipitation varies: maximum of 5,690
  ewline mm in the northeast and minimum of 1,110
  ewline mm in the west.
• Bangladesh experiences monsoon seasons, usually from June to October, but now lengthening from March to September.
• This leads to damage to crops and infrastructure, water-borne disease outbreaks, and forced displacement of people.
• Increases water levels in rivers and other waterways.

River Flooding

Netherlands

• Main rivers:
  • Rhine (longest river).
  • Meuse.
  • Waal.
  • Roer.
  • Schelde.
• Percentage of total area:
  • Flood-prone areas: 34%.
  • Dike rings (embanked areas): 55% (not all are flood-prone).
• Percentage of urban areas:
  • Flood-prone: 31%.
  • Dike rings: 62%.
• Total population:
  • Flood-prone areas: 35%.
  • Dike rings: 67%.
• Half of the population and area within these dike rings are in flood-prone zones.
• Increased flood probability in areas of Rhine and Meuse basins due to increased rainfall intensities in the late 20th century.

Bangladesh

• Has huge inland rivers: Ganges, Meghna, Brahmaputra.
• One of the largest river systems in the world.
• 18 major floods in the 20th century.
• Leads to increased riverbank erosion.

Dependence on a Certain Industry

Netherlands

• ⅔ of the economy is produced in flood-prone areas i.e urban and semi-urban.
• EU’s sixth-largest economy.
  • European transportation hub.
  • Supported by export of chemicals, refined petroleum, and electrical machinery.
• Profitable agricultural sector.
  • Dutch culture is flexible to changing climate.
  • Extreme weather is expected to have little effect on the success of the economic sector.
• In 2019, services contributed to 69% of the Netherlands' GDP, while agriculture contributed 1.66%.
• Main industries:
  • Agri-food (mechanized & ICT driven).
  • Information technology.
  • Chemicals.
  • High-tech systems and materials (HTSM).
  • Life sciences and health.

Bangladesh

• 87% of people are somewhat related to the agri-based economy.
• Bangladeshis would have to have long-term adaptations (introduction of different varieties + species, irrigation systems, seasonal variations).
• Urban industries and other infrastructure in general would also be impacted by extreme weather, natural disasters, and salinization.

Other Effects

• Riverbank erosion displaces 50,000 to 200,000 people each year and 10,000 hectares are lost every year.
• Worsening natural disasters: major cyclones and other tropical storms are increasing in severity and frequency.
• Salinization.
• Many efforts to reduce disaster risks were suspended because of COVID-19 restrictions.

Effect: Long-term Climate Risk Index (CRI)

C. Vulnerability Assessment

Factors reducing risk in the Netherlands

• Includes soft and hard engineering, education, and warnings.
• Risk in urban areas is now 1/10,000 due to vulnerability reduction efforts.

Demographics and Population

• The most densely populated area is the coastal area, including Rotterdam, Hague, and Amsterdam.
• Approximately half of the Netherlands’ population (9 million people) lives below sea level in the coastal region.
• Increasing pressure on the coastal zone leads to more intensive spatial use.
• There is a growing need for high-quality urban locations with high-quality living environments, which the coastal zone offers, creating a pull factor for urbanization.

Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

• Coastal lowlands are considered most vulnerable to sea-level rise.
• More than 85% of the Netherlands' coastal zones are located below 5m of elevation, making the country highly vulnerable.
• Sea level on the Southern North Sea is projected to be 25 to 80 cm higher in 2071-2100 than in 1981-2010.

Coastal Defenses

• Approximately 290km of the coast consists of dunes, and 60km is protected by structures such as dikes and dams.
• Dunes, along with the beach and shore face, offer a natural sandy defense to the sea.
• The Dutch coast mostly consists of sand, which serves as the foundation of the coast. The coastal foundation zone is dynamic and constantly changing.
• Approximately 12
  ewline million
  ewline m^3 of sand is transferred annually from the North Sea to the Wadden Sea due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion.
• Over the last 30 years, sand loss of approximately 1
  ewline million
  ewline m^3/yr has occurred from the Holland coast on deep water.
• Structural erosion is due to sea-level rise and, in some spots, build harbour dams.
• Sea-level rise will affect dune erosion by allowing waves to attack the dunes at a higher level, endangering the coastal population.

Infrastructure

• Areas with the highest dwelling stock growth are located in areas at risk of flooding.
• Changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall can affect flooding frequency and disrupt transportation services.
• Sea-level rise and an increased risk of coastal flooding may cause structural damage to both rail and road transport infrastructure in coastal areas.
• The road network will be particularly sensitive to flooding, as the capacity of drainage systems to remove excess water from the roads may be exceeded.
• Sea-level rise will generate business opportunities for the Dutch coastal engineering industry, which will benefit from an increasing market for flood protection schemes across the world.
• Some sectors will lose, particularly land-based activities that cannot be moved to safe areas. A major loss would be agriculture.
• Companies may decide to retreat from the western and northern parts of the country, leading to an aging population and an increase in the dependency ratio.

Economics

• 70% of Gross National Product (GNP) is earned in flood-prone areas (650 billion euro), leading to a massive loss if flooding were to occur and a decrease in the country's GDP.
• The Netherlands is closely linked with other European countries.
• More than 80% of Dutch trade flows, migration, and travel take place in Europe.
• The energy, ICT, and logistical networks are strongly interconnected, meaning a disruption in one network could trigger cascade effects.
• 90% of the Dutch population holidaying abroad stays within Europe, 70% of Dutch exports and imports are within Europe, the Dutch power grid is connected with that of neighboring countries, and 70% of its data traffic is within Europe.
• About 30% of foreign investments and international outsourcing of services lies outside Europe.
• Natural hazards in the Netherlands due to climate change wouldn’t only affect the Netherlands but also other European countries.
• In 2011, 12% of ICT failures that lasted longer than 24 hours were due to natural causes.
• It is harder for a company to rebuild its factors of production after these events, leading to a decrease in enterprises offering services.

Environmental Degradation

• Threats of floods and groundwater salinization are increasing and both can have negative effects on freshwater supply and agriculture.
• If the rate of sea-level rise increases from 20 to 60 centimeters within 100 years, a doubling of the erosion in shallow coastal waters can be expected.
• Dutch weather conditions are characterized by intense rainfall during the winter and periods of drought during the summer.
• The temperature is predicted to rise, resulting in longer drought periods during the summer and more intense rainfall in autumn and winter.
• These changes in climate pose a potential threat to the freshwater resources in the Netherlands.

D. Conditions Reducing Risk

Level of Affluence, Income, and Funding

• The Netherlands is a High Income Country with a GDP of 907.1
  ewline billion
  ewline USD and a GDP per capita of 52,331
  ewline USD. Its GNI per capita is 1.036
  ewline trillion
  ewline ppp
  ewline dollars.
• The Netherlands is among the richest countries of the European Union and is part of the Eurozone.
• The Dutch financial sector is highly concentrated, with four commercial banks possessing over 80% of banking assets and is four times the size of Dutch GDP.
• 85% of the projects are funded by the taxes paid by the population.
• The LIFE programme is the EU's funding instrument for the environment and climate action, having co-financed 153 projects in the Netherlands with a total investment of €466 million, of which €119 million has been provided by the EU.
• The European Investment Bank is providing EUR 330 million in support of the rehabilitation and modernization of the Dutch “Afsluitdijk” dam, guaranteed under the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI).

Level of Education and Training

• There is a large awareness gap relating to flood risks. The Dutch trust the competent authorities but are not fully aware of the risks they are facing.
• The Dutch government has started a campaign to create awareness, including an app called ‘Will I flood?’ and the website www.overstroomik.nl.
• Utrecht University and Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences have developed educational materials to raise flood risk awareness of students in secondary education.

Level & Means of Communication

• NL-Alert is a Cell Broadcast alarm system used by the Dutch government to quickly alert citizens of hazardous or crisis situations.
• There is also a public warning sirens system with approximately 3,800 sirens operated by local public authorities.

E. Response to Climate Change - National Government Efforts

Technological Developments

• Primary flood protection structures protect 94 dike ring areas, each with a legally prescribed level of flood protection.
• Protection levels vary from 1/250 per year for dike ring areas along the upper reaches of the river Meuse to 1/10000 per year for the most densely populated areas in the western part of the country.
• The Dutch Flood Protection Programme (DFPP) aims to improve flood protection structures that do not meet the required safety standards.
• Delta Programme: The yearly financial volume of the Delta Programme is 11,000
  ewline million
  ewline euros (1-2% of Dutch national budget/year).

Delta Decisions

• In September 2014, the Dutch Delta Commissioner advised the government to take decisions on flood risk management, freshwater, spatial adaptation, the IJssellake region, and the Rhine-Meuse delta.

Dutch Flood Protection Programme (DFPP)

• The DFPP is an alliance of the regional water authorities and Ministry based upon joint responsibility and financing of flood protection measures along the coast, rivers and lakes.
• From 2020 onwards, the yearly budget of 362 million euros is fully dedicated to the DFPP.

Delta Works

• The Delta Works is a series of construction projects in the southwest of the Netherlands to protect a large area from the sea, consisting of dams, sluices, locks, dykes, levees, and storm surge barriers.It is the most sophisticated flood prevention project in the world.

National Water Plan

• The new National Water Plan provides the broad outlines, principles and direction of the national water policy for the 2016 – 21 planning period, with a preview towards 2050. The Cabinet is responding proactively to anticipated changes in climate in the long term, in order to prevent flooding.

Regional Efforts (Rotterdam)

• Rotterdam has adopted a strategy whereby new water-storage systems have been located on the surface in order to make them explicit and even to contribute towards the environmental quality of urban space, as well as strengthening neighborhood identities and offering agreeable leisure spaces to the citizens, these are called water plazas.
• Moreover, the city is subsidizing green roofs with a 50% discount and training roofers to install them rather than asphalt ones.
• The Rotterdam Roofscape programme has developed schematics for four different classifications of multifunctional roofs:
  • Blue roofs emphasize water retention.
  • Green roofs cultivate biodiversity.
  • Yellow roofs provide clean energy production.
  • Red roofs work towards social cohesion.

Actions of Non-Governmental Stakeholders

• Friends of the Earth Netherlands: Has more than 87000 members and donors. Actions taken include:
  • Sustainably produced Milk (2017)
  • Shale Gas (2015)
  • Air pollution (over many years)
  • Oil disaster Nigeria
  • Deforestation
• De Urbanisten:
  • The city is predominantly paved and the greenery that has been planted is hardly suitable to mitigate the two extremes of rain and drought. The sponge garden acts as a sponge and therefore can absorb water quickly, hold it temporarily and gradually return the water to the soil.
  • Water Square Benthemplein in Rotterdam: The water square combines water storage with the improvement of the quality of urban public space.

E. Critique and Areas for Improvement

• The Dutch are surprisingly far behind in developing national renewable energy options and production- only 8.6% of national energy or 15% of electricity, most common wind- behind most other EU nations.
• The Netherlands is a High income country and has the resources and funds needed to protect itself from climate change hazards.
• The Dutch government considers that it is essential to fully integrate a growing supply of renewable energy into the EU energy system.
• The Dutch government advocates the development of an internal EU energy market.
• European countries, but not only, should be more involved in the Netherland’s environmental projects.
• The Netherlands could provide support and funds to Bangladesh and in exchange they would gain popularity within other western countries and this may encourage them to invest in Bangladesh as well. Bangladesh in exchange may be able to provide western countries with their natural resources including:natural gas, oil, coal, hard rock, limestone, white clay, glass sand and mineral sand.