Formulating the Hypothesis

6.0 What is a Hypothesis?

• A hypothesis is an explanation of a relationship between two or more variables.

Experimental Hypothesis

• An experimental hypothesis is a tentative explanation of an event or behavior.

• It predicts the effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable.

Nonexperimental Hypothesis

• A nonexperimental hypothesis predicts how variables (events, traits, or behaviors) might be correlated, but not causally related.

6.1 Why must a Hypothesis be a Synthetic Statement?

• When stating a hypothesis, data is gathered to either support or contradict it (testable).

• A hypothesis must be capable of being true or false (falsifiable), which is a property of synthetic statements.

• It should also be parsimonious, requiring the fewest supporting assumptions.

6.2 What is testability, and why is it important?

• An experimental hypothesis is testable when assessed by manipulating an IV and measuring the results on the DV.

• Without testability, the validity of a hypothesis cannot be evaluated.

6.3 Why should hypotheses be parsimonious?

• Parsimony means preferring a simple hypothesis over one requiring many supporting assumptions.

• A simple hypothesis allows focusing attention on the main factors that influence the dependent variable.

6.4 Developing Hypotheses

• Researchers develop experimental hypotheses using induction, deduction, prior research, serendipity, intuition, and observation.

• Induction and deduction are central to hypothesis development. Researchers use both methods to generate testable hypotheses.

6.5 Induction

• Induction is reasoning from specific cases to general principles to form a hypothesis.

• Researchers use inductive reasoning to construct theories by creating explanations that account for empirical data (observations).

• Scientists can use results of extensive experiments designed to test hypotheses to construct a theory that unifies their findings.

6.6 Deduction

• Deduction is reasoning from general principles to specific predictions. This approach is used to test the assumptions of a theory.

6.7 How can researchers combine Induction and Deduction?

• Develop propositions using induction by examining specific cases, then make predictions using deduction.

• Walster et al. formulated equity theory based on specific observations (induction) and then tested predictions from this theory (deduction).

6.8 What is the most helpful way to develop a hypothesis?

• Review research that has already been published. Both experimental and nonexperimental studies can prove helpful.

6.9 How does a review of prior experiments help us develop a hypothesis?

• Identifies questions that have yet to be conclusively answered or addressed at all.

• Suggests new hypotheses.

• Identifies additional variables that could mediate an effect.

• Identifies problems other researchers have experienced.

• Helps avoid duplication of prior research when replication is not intended.

6.10 How does serendipity help develop fruitful hypotheses?

• A scientist who is open to unexpected results and who is sufficiently informed can understand the significance of unexpected findings.

• A dogmatic scientist would be less likely to \"see\" or appreciate the significance of serendipitous events.

6.11 What is Intuition?

• Intuition is knowing without reasoning or unconscious problem-solving. Intuition guides what we choose to study in an experiment.

• Intuition must be directed by our literature review.

6.12 What are helpful strategies for developing experimental hypotheses?

• Read an issue of a psychology journal.

• Observe how people behave in public places.

• Choose a real-world problem and try to identify its cause.

Okay, I can provide examples and situational problems related to hypothesis development and testing, drawing from the information in the notes.

6.0 What is a Hypothesis?

• Example: Imagine you observe that students who study in groups tend to perform better on exams. A hypothesis could be: "Students who participate in group study sessions will achieve higher exam scores compared to students who study alone."

  • Situational Problem: A researcher wants to study the effects of a new teaching method on student performance. What should their first step be?

    • Answer: Formulate a testable hypothesis about how the new teaching method will affect student outcomes.

Experimental Hypothesis

• Example: A researcher hypothesizes that caffeine improves reaction time. The experimental hypothesis is: "Participants who consume caffeine will exhibit faster reaction times compared to those who do not consume caffeine."

  • Situational Problem: A pharmaceutical company is testing a new drug to treat anxiety. How might they formulate an experimental hypothesis?

    • Answer: The hypothesis could be: "Patients treated with the new drug will show a significant reduction in anxiety symptoms compared to those receiving a placebo."

Nonexperimental Hypothesis

• Example: A researcher notices a correlation between hours of sleep and academic performance but does not manipulate any variables. A nonexperimental hypothesis could be: "There is a positive correlation between the number of hours students sleep and their GPA."

  • Situational Problem: A psychologist observes that individuals with higher self-esteem tend to report greater life satisfaction. How might they frame this as a nonexperimental hypothesis?

    • Answer: "Individuals with higher self-esteem will report higher levels of life satisfaction."

6.1 Why must a Hypothesis be a Synthetic Statement?

• Example: Consider the statement: "All swans are white." This is a synthetic statement because it can be tested and potentially falsified by observing non-white swans.

  • Situational Problem: Why is it important for a hypothesis to be falsifiable?

    • Answer: Because a falsifiable hypothesis allows for empirical testing and potential disproval, which is essential for scientific progress.

6.2 What is testability, and why is it important?

• Example: A hypothesis stating, "Increased exposure to sunlight improves mood," is testable by measuring mood levels of individuals with varying degrees of sunlight exposure.

  • Situational Problem: A researcher proposes that "certain personality traits cause success." What is a challenge regarding the testability of this hypothesis?

    • Answer: Operationally defining and measuring "success" and "personality traits" to allow for empirical assessment.

6.3 Why should hypotheses be parsimonious?

• Example: Instead of hypothesizing that "multiple complex factors including genetics, diet, and exercise influence weight loss," a parsimonious hypothesis would be: "Increased exercise leads to weight loss."

  • Situational Problem: Why is parsimony important in hypothesis formulation?

    • Answer: Parsimony helps focus research efforts on the most critical variables, simplifying the study and interpretation of results.

6.4 Developing Hypotheses

• Example: Using induction, a researcher observes that students who attend review sessions perform better on exams. Using deduction, they might then hypothesize that "Students who attend review sessions will score higher on the next exam because review sessions reinforce key concepts."

  • Situational Problem: A researcher notices a trend in their data but isn't sure why it's happening. How can they use induction and deduction to form a testable hypothesis?

    • Answer: Use induction to form a general explanation for the trend, then use deduction to make specific, testable predictions based on that explanation.

6.5 Induction

• Example: After observing several successful entrepreneurs, a researcher theorizes that "risk-taking is a key trait of successful entrepreneurs."

  • Situational Problem: A biologist observes that certain birds migrate south for the winter. How can they use inductive reasoning to form a hypothesis?

    • Answer: They might hypothesize that "Birds migrate south to find food sources that are more abundant in warmer climates during the winter months."

6.6 Deduction

• Example: Based on the theory that stress impairs cognitive function, a researcher predicts that "Individuals under high stress will perform worse on memory tests compared to those under low stress."

  • Situational Problem: Based on existing economic theory, how might an economist use deduction to predict the effects of a new tax policy?

    • Answer: They would start with general principles of economics and deduce specific predictions about how the tax policy will influence economic behavior.

6.7 How can researchers combine Induction and Deduction?

• Example: A researcher observes that people who meditate regularly report lower stress levels (induction). They then hypothesize that "Regular meditation reduces cortisol levels, leading to lower reported stress" (deduction), which they test in an experiment.

  • Situational Problem: A social scientist notices a pattern in voting behavior (induction). How can they use both induction and deduction to develop and test a hypothesis?

    • Answer: They can develop a theory explaining the pattern (induction) and then deduce testable predictions from that theory about future voting behavior.

6.8 What is the most helpful way to develop a hypothesis?

• Example: Before studying the effects of sleep on memory, a researcher reviews prior studies that have examined the relationship between sleep duration and cognitive performance.

  • Situational Problem: A student is interested in studying the impact of social media on body image. What is the most helpful first step they should take?

    • Answer: Conduct a thorough review of existing literature on the topic to understand previous findings and identify gaps in research.

6.9 How does a review of prior experiments help us develop a hypothesis?

• Example: A review of past studies on exercise and depression reveals inconsistent results, prompting a researcher to hypothesize that "the type of exercise (aerobic vs. anaerobic) mediates the effect of exercise on depression symptoms."

  • Situational Problem: A researcher wants to investigate the effectiveness of a new therapy for PTSD. How can reviewing prior experiments help them develop a strong hypothesis?

    • Answer: It can help identify unanswered questions, suggest new variables, and refine the hypothesis to address limitations of previous research.

6.10 How does serendipity help develop fruitful hypotheses?

• Example: The discovery of penicillin by Alexander Fleming occurred when he noticed that mold contaminating a petri dish inhibited bacterial growth, leading to the hypothesis that the mold had antibacterial properties.

  • Situational Problem: A researcher accidentally discovers that a certain compound affects plant growth in an unexpected way. How might serendipity play a role in developing a new hypothesis?

    • Answer: By recognizing the significance of the unexpected finding, the researcher can formulate a hypothesis about the compound's effects on plant growth and test it systematically.

6.11 What is Intuition?

• Example: A researcher has a hunch that a particular brain region is involved in decision-making, even before seeing direct evidence. This intuition guides their choice of research question and methods.

  • Situational Problem: A scientist feels that a certain approach will be effective in solving a problem, even though they can’t fully explain why. How should they use intuition in developing a hypothesis?

    • Answer: Use intuition as a starting point, but ensure that the resulting hypothesis is testable and grounded in existing knowledge from the literature review.

6.12 What are helpful strategies for developing experimental hypotheses?

• Example: After reading a psychology journal, a student is inspired to study the effects of mindfulness on test anxiety. Observing people in public places, a researcher notices that people who use their phones while walking tend to bump into things more often, leading to a hypothesis about divided attention.

  • Situational Problem: A researcher is struggling to come up with a research idea. What are some practical strategies they can use to stimulate hypothesis development?

    • Answer: Read recent research, observe real-world behaviors, and identify problems that need solutions to generate potential research questions.