• Public opinion: how people feel about things

  • Pollsters measure public opinion

  • Not uniform - general public care more about political issues that directly affect their regular lives

  • Political issue does not have to interest the majority of the public to be considered important

    • Issue public: a smaller group to which an issue is important

Characteristics of Public Opinion

• Characteristics:

  • Saliency: the degree to which an issue is important to a certain individual/group

  • Intensity: how strongly people feel about a particular issue

  • Stability: how much dimensions of public opinion change

• Measured indirectly through elections, but hard to translate

• Referendum submitted to popular vote to accept/reject a legislation, measures public opinion on specific issues

• Public opinion polls measure public opinion most frequently and directly

Polls Measure Public Opinion

• Designed to measure public opinion by asking a smaller group questions

  • Achieved by pollsters through random sampling: allows pollsters to find information representative of the public

  • Benchmark polls: conducted by a campaign when a candidate initially announces

    • Provide campaign with baseline data to see if chances of winning election improve over time

  • Tracking polls: performed multiple times with the same sample to track changes in opinion

  • Entrance polls: collected on Election Day as voters go to cast their vote

  • Exit polls: conducted at polling places, targeting voting districts that represent the public and poll random voters leaving the place

  • Stratified random sampling: variation of random sampling; population divided into subgroups and weighted based on demographics

  • Questions must be carefully worded (objectively)

  • Polls cannot be 100% accurate

    • Sampling error: how wrong the poll results may be

      • Ex. 60% with a sampling error of 4% would mean the real percentage could be between 56 and 64%

      • More respondents = lower sampling error

Where Does Public Opinion Come From?

• Political socialization: the process by which a person develops political attitudes

  • Factors:

    • Family

      • Most people eventually are of the same political party as their parents

      • Children get moral/ethical values from parents

    • Location

      • Rural areas develop more socially conservative views than cities

    • Religious institutions

    • Mass media

    • Higher education

      • Large change in political beliefs

Political Ideologies

• Ideology: a coherent set of thoughts and beliefs about politics and government

  • Conservative: less government interference; oppose most federal regulations (laissez-faire economics); social conservatives support government involvement in social issues

  • Liberal: more government assistance to help social/economic problems; government regulation of economy; separation of church and state

  • Moderate/independent: no coherent ideology; common sense over philosophical principles

• Americans have fewer ideological groups

• Strongly ideological Americans tend to be more politically active

  • Political activities/organizations

  • Candidates must appeal to more extreme party members in primaries but be more moderate in general elections

Determining Factors in Ideological and Political Behavior

• Factors:

  • Race/ethnicity: groups with lower income are usually more liberal

  • Religion: Jews and Protestants are more liberal; Catholics lean left but are more conservative on social issues; Protestants are more conservative

  • Gender: women tend to be more liberal

  • Income level: higher income Americans tend to be more supportive of liberal goals but more fiscally conservatives; lower income Americans are more conservative on issues except welfare

  • Region: East Coast is more liberal, South is more conservative, West Coast is the most polarized/mixed; cities are more liberal while rural/small towns are conservative

Public Opinion and the Mass Media

• News media

  • News broadcasts on TV, radio, and the Internet

  • Newspapers

  • News magazines

  • Magazine broadcast programs

  • Newsmaker interview programs

  • Websites, blogs, news aggregators, online forums

  • Social media

  • Political talk radio/podcasts

• Media sets the public agenda by choosing stories to cover and which to ignore

• Media provides Americans with exposure to the government + politicians

  • Question motives of government

  • Exposure to news media has increased, more influence over the years

• Media only affects public opinion when it is volatile or news coverage is extensive and mostly positive/negative

  • Most instances it does not have an effect - media covers many stories simultaneously, Americans choose media that enforce their political beliefs

• Social media has become a tool for grassroots political movements

Are News Organizations Biased?

• There is less ideological bias in news than critics claim

  • News media has become less biased throughout American history

  • Most news organizations want to be objective - consumers from both sides of the political spectrum

  • Impossible for news media to be completely objective

    • Simple stories are faster to run and don’t bore consumers

  • Time and space result in bias

    • Especially with TV news programs

      • Must report many stories in limited time

      • Use short sound bites

  • Can be biased by sources of information

    • Reporters who use politicians/government sources must try not to offend their sources and not become too close but demonstrate independence and credibility

    • Reporters are usually more skeptical about politicians’ motives than Americans are

  • Politicians try to influence news coverage

    • Photo ops

    • Press releases

    • plan appearances based on audience demographics