incumbency
US has 2 party system dominated by the Democrats and Republicans.
Congress is likely to contain politicians from these two main parties only.
Elections are exclusive contests (in the main) between these two parties.
The system is encouraged by first past the post or winner takes all elections. This alongside the strength of Republican and Democrat parties discourages people from voting for third parties.
Democrats and Republicans have the brand recognition, political expertise and fund raising capabilities to maintain their dominance
It is the suggestion that the person in office will find it easier to win the next election compared to their challenger.
70% of the time, when a President has sought re-election, they have won
Success is not ensured. In 2020, Trump ensured his core vote, and expanded his total support. However he lost support amongst swing voters. In 2016 he won 30 states, in 2020 this was down to 25.
1. 1984: Ronald Reagan (Republican) defeated Walter Mondale (Democrat).
2. 1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat) defeated Bob Dole (Republican).
3. 2004: George W. Bush (Republican) defeated John Kerry (Democrat).
4. 2012: Barack Obama (Democrat) defeated Mitt Romney (Republican).
1. 1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat) lost to Ronald Reagan (Republican).
2. 1992: George H.W. Bush (Republican) lost to Bill Clinton (Democrat).
3. 2020: Donald Trump (Republican) lost to Joe Biden (Democrat).
10 presidential elections since 1980.
4 of those saw incumbents win (40%).
3 of those saw incumbents lose (30%).
remaining 3 elections did not involve an incumbent running (1988, 2000, 2008), accounting for 30%.
Presidents can use their position to deliver specific policy benefits to key voting groups and swing states. They may attempt to stimulate the economy as the election approaches.
Obama rewarded key voting blocs such as Hispanic people with executive orders on immigration and the appointment of the first Hispanic justice on the SC.
Presidents may inspire greater confidence as they have White House experience. Their challenger may be untested at a national executive level.
The office of President may give significant authority. The President has enormous responsibility for the security of the nation and benefits from this image.
Presidents can be judged on their record and may have policy mistakes or personal misjudgements to their name.
If there are major events during a presidency this can improve the individual in office’s reputation if handled well or undermine support if not.
Trump was criticised for his lack of leadership during COVD-19 by politicising the issue. He downplayed the extent of the problem and derided those who wore masks etc. Given the pandemic was a high priority for voters, Biden was seen as being the better candidate.
George W Bush however reacted strongly to 9/11 and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. This was high on voters’ priorities and his support went up in 2004.
Presidents will find it easy to gain media attention and can speak from the White House directly to voters. This allows them to attract publicity and sell their message to the country.
US elections are extremely expensive, but a president can attract free publicity using social media or news outlets. Challengers would find it difficult to get this level of publicity to sell their agenda.
Obama’s speech on the death of US officials in the Benghazi attacks in September 2012 highlighted his role as commander in chief.
This factor does not give the president a monopoly over the media. Presidential TV debates provide an opportunity for an incumbent to impress the voters their advantages over a sitting President.
A President may be sublect to negative publicity that undermines them. Presidents come under intense media scrutiny with any flaws or failures quickly highlighted by the media.
Trump broke many norms when it comes to media use. It gains attention but has undermined the extent to which he looks presidential in using the office to govern etc.
His regular use of aggressive tweets, his intense use of Rose Garden speeches to attack Biden and use of the White House to deliver a party convention speech were all seen as breaking with tradition of US Presidents.
Having already won one presidential election, the president has an established campaign team with a proven track record. Incumbents also tend to outspend opponents because its easier to raise funds.
Incumbent presidents tend not to face primary challenges giving them a major advantage!
Money is no guarantee of success. Challengers could raise and spend more money than the incumbent.
The incumbent president may face a competitive primary. This could create more political damage than the primary process creates for the challenger. A president facing a primary from their own party exposes high levels of criticism from their party which undermines their authority.
President Trump is the only president to lose office whilst not facing a primary challenge. Biden’s 2020 raised more and spent more than Trump’s campaign as well.
Historical Re-election Rates: High percentage of incumbents winning re-election (e.g., Obama, Clinton).
Fundraising Advantage: Incumbents typically have easier access to campaign funding and donor networks.
Name Recognition: Established public presence and media familiarity.
Experience in Office: Incumbents have experience in governance and navigating political challenges.
Party Support: Strong backing from the party apparatus and established voter bases.
Voter Fatigue: Discontent with long-standing incumbents can lead to calls for change (e.g., George H.W. Bush in 1992).
Scandals and Controversies: Incumbents can be vulnerable to scandals that sway public opinion (e.g., Nixon, Clinton).
Challenger Momentum: Strong challengers can galvanize support and create a wave of change (e.g., Obama vs. McCain).
Economic Factors: Economic downturns can negatively impact incumbents regardless of their campaign skills.
Changing Demographics: Shifts in voter demographics can undermine incumbents' traditional bases (e.g., Trump in 2016).
US has 2 party system dominated by the Democrats and Republicans.
Congress is likely to contain politicians from these two main parties only.
Elections are exclusive contests (in the main) between these two parties.
The system is encouraged by first past the post or winner takes all elections. This alongside the strength of Republican and Democrat parties discourages people from voting for third parties.
Democrats and Republicans have the brand recognition, political expertise and fund raising capabilities to maintain their dominance
It is the suggestion that the person in office will find it easier to win the next election compared to their challenger.
70% of the time, when a President has sought re-election, they have won
Success is not ensured. In 2020, Trump ensured his core vote, and expanded his total support. However he lost support amongst swing voters. In 2016 he won 30 states, in 2020 this was down to 25.
1. 1984: Ronald Reagan (Republican) defeated Walter Mondale (Democrat).
2. 1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat) defeated Bob Dole (Republican).
3. 2004: George W. Bush (Republican) defeated John Kerry (Democrat).
4. 2012: Barack Obama (Democrat) defeated Mitt Romney (Republican).
1. 1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat) lost to Ronald Reagan (Republican).
2. 1992: George H.W. Bush (Republican) lost to Bill Clinton (Democrat).
3. 2020: Donald Trump (Republican) lost to Joe Biden (Democrat).
10 presidential elections since 1980.
4 of those saw incumbents win (40%).
3 of those saw incumbents lose (30%).
remaining 3 elections did not involve an incumbent running (1988, 2000, 2008), accounting for 30%.
Presidents can use their position to deliver specific policy benefits to key voting groups and swing states. They may attempt to stimulate the economy as the election approaches.
Obama rewarded key voting blocs such as Hispanic people with executive orders on immigration and the appointment of the first Hispanic justice on the SC.
Presidents may inspire greater confidence as they have White House experience. Their challenger may be untested at a national executive level.
The office of President may give significant authority. The President has enormous responsibility for the security of the nation and benefits from this image.
Presidents can be judged on their record and may have policy mistakes or personal misjudgements to their name.
If there are major events during a presidency this can improve the individual in office’s reputation if handled well or undermine support if not.
Trump was criticised for his lack of leadership during COVD-19 by politicising the issue. He downplayed the extent of the problem and derided those who wore masks etc. Given the pandemic was a high priority for voters, Biden was seen as being the better candidate.
George W Bush however reacted strongly to 9/11 and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. This was high on voters’ priorities and his support went up in 2004.
Presidents will find it easy to gain media attention and can speak from the White House directly to voters. This allows them to attract publicity and sell their message to the country.
US elections are extremely expensive, but a president can attract free publicity using social media or news outlets. Challengers would find it difficult to get this level of publicity to sell their agenda.
Obama’s speech on the death of US officials in the Benghazi attacks in September 2012 highlighted his role as commander in chief.
This factor does not give the president a monopoly over the media. Presidential TV debates provide an opportunity for an incumbent to impress the voters their advantages over a sitting President.
A President may be sublect to negative publicity that undermines them. Presidents come under intense media scrutiny with any flaws or failures quickly highlighted by the media.
Trump broke many norms when it comes to media use. It gains attention but has undermined the extent to which he looks presidential in using the office to govern etc.
His regular use of aggressive tweets, his intense use of Rose Garden speeches to attack Biden and use of the White House to deliver a party convention speech were all seen as breaking with tradition of US Presidents.
Having already won one presidential election, the president has an established campaign team with a proven track record. Incumbents also tend to outspend opponents because its easier to raise funds.
Incumbent presidents tend not to face primary challenges giving them a major advantage!
Money is no guarantee of success. Challengers could raise and spend more money than the incumbent.
The incumbent president may face a competitive primary. This could create more political damage than the primary process creates for the challenger. A president facing a primary from their own party exposes high levels of criticism from their party which undermines their authority.
President Trump is the only president to lose office whilst not facing a primary challenge. Biden’s 2020 raised more and spent more than Trump’s campaign as well.
Historical Re-election Rates: High percentage of incumbents winning re-election (e.g., Obama, Clinton).
Fundraising Advantage: Incumbents typically have easier access to campaign funding and donor networks.
Name Recognition: Established public presence and media familiarity.
Experience in Office: Incumbents have experience in governance and navigating political challenges.
Party Support: Strong backing from the party apparatus and established voter bases.
Voter Fatigue: Discontent with long-standing incumbents can lead to calls for change (e.g., George H.W. Bush in 1992).
Scandals and Controversies: Incumbents can be vulnerable to scandals that sway public opinion (e.g., Nixon, Clinton).
Challenger Momentum: Strong challengers can galvanize support and create a wave of change (e.g., Obama vs. McCain).
Economic Factors: Economic downturns can negatively impact incumbents regardless of their campaign skills.
Changing Demographics: Shifts in voter demographics can undermine incumbents' traditional bases (e.g., Trump in 2016).
