China and the US: Rivalry and the International Order

Guiding Questions

• Why is the US-China relationship so important to international politics?

• What are the goals of Chinese foreign policy?

• Does a rising China automatically imply a declining US?

• Is a “new Cold War” developing between the US and China?

Globalization and Human Security

• Economic development is often seen as crucial for avoiding failed states. It helps in providing stability and opportunities for people, reducing the likelihood of conflict and instability.

• Building state capacity is critical for combating cultural extremism by providing resources and infrastructure to address social and economic grievances that lead to extremism. It also helps in reducing terrorism and managing refugee flows by securing borders.

• Economic development is also critical for ensuring domestic security by creating jobs, reducing poverty, and improving living standards. This fosters social cohesion and reduces crime rates.

• States have incentives to promote economic growth because it increases their revenue through taxes, improves the quality of life for their citizens, and enhances their international standing.

• Foreign policy is often shaped by a desire to maintain access to markets and trade, which are essential for economic growth and prosperity. Countries engage in diplomacy and sometimes military intervention to protect their trade routes and investments.

• New threats from global organized crime, pandemics, environmental insecurity, and piracy create incentives for cooperation amongst states because these issues are transnational and require coordinated efforts to address them effectively.

• There is more to gain from cooperation than conflict because cooperation leads to mutual benefits, such as economic growth, security, and stability, while conflict leads to destruction and loss.

• On all these fronts, the US and China have incentives to cooperate, but friction exists due to differences in political systems, values, and strategic interests. Is conflict inevitable?

Rising Superpower? Classifying China

• Powerful states seek to dominate their own backyards to ensure their security and project their influence. This often leads to conflicts with neighboring countries.

• China has had tussles with Japan and India over territorial disputes and historical grievances. These conflicts have led to military standoffs and diplomatic tensions.

• China intervened in North Vietnam during the Vietnam War to prevent the US from gaining a foothold in the region and to support its communist ally.

• China is involved in efforts to ensure the Korean Peninsula is free of nuclear weapons because it wants to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region and maintain stability.

• China's economy is projected to become the world's largest in coming decades, which would give it more economic and political clout on the global stage.

• China is a major recipient of foreign investment, which has fueled its economic growth and modernization.

• China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, giving it veto power over important international decisions.

• China has challenged the US in various areas, including trade, technology, and military power. This rivalry has led to increased tensions and competition between the two countries.

• China has growing cooperation with Russia, which has led to joint military exercises and diplomatic coordination. This alliance is seen as a challenge to the US-led international order.

Taiwan: Potential Powder Keg?

• China considers Taiwan part of its territory and views it as a renegade province that must be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary.

• Taiwan is an island to which defeated nationalists fled in 1949 after losing the Chinese Civil War to the communists. Taiwan has since developed into a vibrant democracy with a strong economy.

• This could spark tensions because Taiwan's government is democratically elected and does not want to be ruled by China. China's threats to use force have led to increased tensions in the region.

• The US agrees that there is only one China, but sells military hardware to Taiwan and promises to defend it. This policy of "strategic ambiguity" is meant to deter China from attacking Taiwan while also discouraging Taiwan from declaring independence.

• There is some movement towards independence in Taiwan, which China views as a red line. Any move towards formal independence would likely trigger a military response from China.

• China would oppose this with force, and it has repeatedly warned Taiwan against seeking independence.

• Would the US defend Taiwan? This is a question that has been debated for decades. The US has never explicitly stated whether it would defend Taiwan, but its actions suggest that it is committed to doing so.

Structural Factors Shaping Chinese Foreign Policy

• Zhu 2012

• Power: proximity to Russia, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Japan. China's foreign policy is shaped by its relationships with these countries, which can be both cooperative and competitive.

• Triangulation during the Cold War. China used its relationships with the US and the Soviet Union to advance its own interests.

• Resurgence of triangulation in post-Cold War era? China is now using its relationships with the US and Russia to balance against each other.

• Interdependence: growing involvement in international institutions. China's growing involvement in international institutions such as the UN, WTO and WHO has increased its influence on global affairs.

• Anger at encroachments on sovereignty. China is sensitive to any perceived infringements on its sovereignty, and it has been quick to defend its interests in areas such as Taiwan, Tibet, and the South China Sea.

• US-Chinese economic interdependence. The US and China are economically interdependent, with the US being a major importer of Chinese goods and China being a major holder of US debt. This interdependence has led to both cooperation and competition between the two countries.

• Ideas:-

  • Separate economics from human rights. China believes that economic development should take precedence over human rights, and it has resisted international pressure to improve its human rights record.

  • Avenge “century of humiliation”. China seeks to restore its historical greatness and avenge what it sees as a century of humiliation at the hands of foreign powers.

  • Maintain a unified Chinese territory. China is committed to maintaining a unified Chinese territory, and it views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunified with the mainland.

Political Factors Shaping Chinese Foreign Policy

• Zhu 2012

• The Communist Party makes key decisions. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the ruling party in China and makes all major decisions regarding foreign policy.

• “Vertical and dual rule”. China's political system is characterized by vertical and dual rule, with power being divided between the central government and local governments, as well as between the party and the state.

• Divisions between “reds” and “experts”. There are divisions within the CCP between those who prioritize ideology ("reds") and those who prioritize economic development ("experts").

• President Xi has consolidated power in his office, giving him more control over foreign policy decision-making.

• Bureaucrats can shape “minor” policies. While the CCP makes major decisions, bureaucrats can shape minor policies and influence the implementation of foreign policy.

• Public opinion: increasingly “managed” under Xi. Public opinion is increasingly managed by the government under President Xi, and there is limited space for dissent.

What Would a Chinese International Order Look Like?

• Economy 2022

• China is increasingly central in shaping international politics due to its economic and military growth.

• Does Beijing seek to make some adjustments to the current order?-

  • Primarily defensive. China's primary goal is to maintain its domestic system and re-enforce its territorial boundaries.

• Does Beijing seek to fundamentally change the global order?-

  • Become equal to or surpass the US and dominate Southeast Asia. China seeks to become equal to or surpass the US in terms of economic and military power and to dominate Southeast Asia.

  • Seek to reshape international political norms. China seeks to reshape international political norms to reflect its own values and interests.

  • Use technology and international law/institutions to reinforce state primacy. China seeks to use technology and international law/institutions to reinforce state primacy and limit individual freedoms.

  • Limit individual freedoms and restrain open markets. China seeks to limit individual freedoms and restrain open markets, both domestically and internationally.

  • Reinforce the idea that states can limit the spread of information and capital. China seeks to reinforce the idea that states can limit the spread of information and capital, both domestically and internationally.

• Xi believes the world favors a shift towards its values, which emphasize state control and economic development over individual freedoms and democracy.

• But appears unaware that Beijing is not seen as a benign actor due to its human rights record, territorial disputes, and assertive foreign policy.

Responding to China’s Enhanced International Clout

• Economy 2022

• “Reunification of the motherland” remains central to Chinese foreign policy, particularly concerning Taiwan.

• Reasserting control over Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea is critical for China to achieve its strategic goals.

• But the decision to undermine “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong and claiming sovereignty over disputed areas in the South China Sea has ripple effects, leading to international condemnation and regional instability.

• Taiwan is unlikely to accede to unification given the treatment of Hong Kong, making the prospect of peaceful reunification more distant.

• China is viewed as “revisionist” by many countries, and there is a lack of confidence in China to “do the right thing” on the international stage.

• Regional states (and others) see China as revanchist, seeking to restore its past glory and dominance in the region.

• Japan, Australia, Philippines, India, and the EU are all boosting defense ties with the US to counterbalance China's growing military power.

• Xi’s determination to advance his goals is promoting counterbalancing, as countries seek to contain China's influence and protect their own interests.

Responding to China’s Enhanced International Clout

• Economy 2022

• Counterbalancing is particularly pronounced as China lacks soft power despite efforts to craft influence via the Belt and Road Initiative and Confucius Institutes.

• Belt and Road Initiative: boost influence via infrastructure investment . This initiative is designed to boost China's influence by building infrastructure in other countries, but it has been criticized for its lack of transparency and its potential to create debt traps.

  • Highlights China’s commitment to work with any state, regardless of its human rights record or political system.

  • Can do business “with anyone”, giving it an advantage over countries that insist on certain standards.

  • Provides opportunities for China to provide financing, labor, and materials for projects and promote its development model.

  • Reduces time to build/develop new infrastructure given the lack of need for transparency and environmental/human rights checks.

  • BUT, weak labor standards, associated corruption and skepticism regarding China’s motives are undermining the project.

• Confucius Institutes are created to boost support for Chinese language training internationally. These institutes are designed to promote Chinese culture and language, but they have been accused of promoting propaganda and suppressing academic freedom.

  • …but the requirement that Beijing determines the curriculum and tries to dictate host policies negatively impacts the institutes.

Responding to China’s Enhanced International Clout

• Economy 2022

• China sees itself as building networks, connections, and goodwill (i.e., soft power), but it is viewed externally as relying on coercion (i.e., hard power).

• Denying sale of personal protective equipment to states criticizing China. This was seen as an attempt to silence criticism of China's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Threatening businesses if they do not recognize Chinese territorial claims. This has led to companies being forced to apologize for perceived slights to China's sovereignty.

• Targeting individuals who speak against China regardless of their location. This has led to concerns about the safety of dissidents and activists living outside of China.

• Boosting central government control over Chinese businesses. This has made it more difficult for foreign companies to operate in China and has raised concerns about the independence of Chinese businesses.

• Actively seeks to determine Arctic policy despite having no claim. This has raised concerns about China's intentions in the Arctic and its willingness to abide by international norms.

• Risks not only undermining international economic faith in Chinese businesses but also raises questions about Chinese motives.

• Emphasizing the role of the state over individual rights is particularly problematic for countries that value individual freedoms and democracy.

• China is “winning some battles” but “losing the war” in terms of support, as its actions are alienating potential allies and undermining its soft power.

Enter a New Cold War?

• Brands and Gaddis 2021

• Is a new Cold War brewing? Yes and no…-

  • Yes: International rivalry exists between the US and China and is recognized by both sides. The US and China are competing for global influence in areas such as trade, technology, and military power.

  • No: The Cold War was fomented between different actors and was “fought” over different issues. The Cold War was primarily a ideological struggle between the US and the Soviet Union, while the current rivalry between the US and China is more complex and multifaceted.

• Understanding the Cold War is critical for understanding how to manage the current rivalry between the United States and China. The Cold War provides lessons about how to avoid escalation, maintain stability, and manage competition between great powers.

Managing the New Cold War

• Brands and Gaddis 2021

• Boundaries will continue to “matter”. The US and China have different geopolitical positions, which will shape their interactions.

  • United States boundaries are fixed and land is protected by two oceans, giving it a strategic advantage.

  • Maintains solid relationships with its neighbors, which enhances its security.

  • China will remain a land power in a region where borders are arguably fluid, which creates both opportunities and challenges.

  • Belt and Road Initiative to link China to Eurasia seeks to boost influence, but it also creates dependencies and vulnerabilities.

  • Seeks to retain Taiwan and hold Hong Kong and Tibet, which are all sources of tension and instability.

  • But increasingly aggressive rhetoric/actions of President Xi are likely to spark balancing, as other countries seek to contain China's power.

Managing the New Cold War

• Brands and Gaddis 2021

• Boundaries will continue to “matter”.-

  • Democracy/autocracy: The US and China have fundamentally different political systems, which will shape their interactions.

  • The US democratic system is facing challenges but democracies are able to “self-correct”, giving them an advantage in the long run.

  • Viewed less suspiciously from outside and better equipped to handle internal divisions, which enhances its soft power.

  • China’s increasingly autocratic bent precludes “self-correction”, making it more difficult to adapt to changing circumstances.

  • Viewed more suspiciously from outside and less equipped to handle internal divisions, which undermines its soft power.

Managing the New Cold War

• Brands and Gaddis 2021

• But doesn’t the presence of two powers with different identities raise the likelihood of conflict? The US and China have different values, interests, and political systems, which could lead to conflict.

  • It could if rhetoric over Taiwan heats up, as Taiwan is a flashpoint in the US-China relationship.

  • Particularly if Xi needs an external enemy to deflect from domestic issues, as this could lead to escalation.

  • But it doesn’t have to, as the “long peace” of the Cold War provides a roadmap for stability. The US and the Soviet Union were able to avoid direct conflict during the Cold War, and the US and China can do the same.

Managing the New Cold War

• Brands and Gaddis 2021

• What prompted the “long peace” of the Cold War? The US and the Soviet Union had a common interest in avoiding nuclear war.

  • Both the US/USSR wanted to avoid another world war, as they had both experienced the devastation of World War II.

  • BUT, leaders of both had experienced war, Xi has not had the same experiences, which could make him more willing to take risks.

  • Both the US/USSR feared a nuclear conflict would not be worth initiating, as it would lead to mutual destruction.

  • China lacks the nuclear resources to compete with the US BUT shows no appetite for a nuclear war, suggesting that it is not seeking a military confrontation with the US.

  • Efforts to take Taiwan would prompt overstretch and external balancing which would contain China, making it more difficult for China to achieve its goals.

  • We are already seeing this in response to China’s actions in the South China Sea, as other countries are increasing their military presence in the region.

Managing the New Cold War

• Brands and Gaddis 2021

• The Post-Cold War era creates contexts where both sides need to cooperate. The US and China face common challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and economic instability.

  • Climate change could foster an existential crisis forcing cooperation, as both countries need to reduce their emissions to avoid catastrophic consequences.

  • …can also create opportunities for actors to “use surprise”, as countries may be tempted to take unilateral action to address climate change.

  • The US could re-engage Moscow to undermine China-Russia cooperation, as the US and Russia have a history of cooperation on issues such as arms control.

  • Exploiting Russian “junior partner” concerns creates an opening, as Russia may be willing to cooperate with the US to avoid being dominated by China.

  • Chinese efforts to ally with developing nations could boost influence, as China can use its economic power to win support from developing countries.

  • OR could drag China into regional instability it would rather avoid, as China may be drawn into conflicts in developing countries.

  • Finally, the Cold War ended quickly without anyone expecting it to, suggesting that the current rivalry between the US and China could also end unexpectedly.

  • Could fundamental weaknesses within autocracies create a similar outcome? Autocracies are often brittle and can collapse quickly, as happened in the Soviet Union.

Managing the New Cold War

• Brands and Gaddis 2021

• The Post-Cold War context is characterized by power shifts and growing uncertainty, making it difficult to predict the future of the US-China relationship.

• The best American response is to adopt an “old Cold War” strategy: containment, which involves containing China's power and influence.

  • Containment buys time for internal weaknesses within autocracies to manifest, as autocracies are often inefficient and corrupt.

  • Promotes flexibility in the choice of allies in an increasingly uncertain world, as the US can choose its partners depending on the context.

  • Allows the US to choose its partners depending on the context, as the US is not bound to any particular alliance.

  • Direct elections ensure that strategies which no longer work are jettisoned, as democracies