Public opinion is a combination of views, attitudes, and ideas held by individuals in a community.
Public opinion is more dynamic and changing compared to political culture.
Politics seldom occupies the attention of many Americans.
Surveys show Americans have some interest in politics but fall short of the democratic ideal.
Substantial percentages of the public are uninformed about some of the major political issues of the time.
Public Opinion: Changing values and attitudes that people have about issues, events, and personalities.
Values (or Beliefs): Basic principles that shape people’s opinions about issues and events.
Political Ideology: A cohesive set of beliefs that form a general philosophy about government.
Attitude (or Opinion): A specific view about a particular issue, personality, or event.
Democratic governments should reflect the will of the people.
How do we know what the public wants?
Where does public opinion originate?
Average citizens do not always have vast information about issues or elections.
Yet they can form opinions about such matters.
What factors influence public opinion in the presence or absence of relevant information?
What about the situations when the public opinion is misguided?
Political leaders rely on public opinion polls.
Public opinion polls are scientific instruments for measuring public opinion.
Polls help political leaders decide whether to run for office, what policies to support, and how to vote on important legislation.
Pollsters rely on a sample of the population.
Sample: A small group selected by researchers to represent the most important characteristics of an entire population
*It depends on how you ask:
*Situation:* The public's desire for tax cuts can be hard to measure.
Question: President [Bill] Clinton has proposed setting aside approximately two-thirds of an expected budget surplus to fix the Social Security system. What do you think the leaders in Washington should do with the remainder of the surplus?
Variation 1: Should the money be used for a tax cut, or should it be used to fund new government programs?
Variation 2: Should the money be used for a tax cut, or should it be spent on programs for education, the environment, healthcare, crime fighting, and military defense?
e.g. election of Truman, Trump
Public opinion is the study of thousands of people’s opinions aggregated together.
Differences of opinion are often reported by:
Partisanship (e.g., Democrats compared to Republicans)
Ideology (e.g., conservatives compared to liberals)
Race (nonwhites compared to whites)
Gender and sexual orientation (e.g., men compared to women)
Regional geography (e.g., East Coast vs. West Coast)
Age (young compared to old)
Income education level
Issue Percentage Who Agree, by Education Level
ISSUE | GRADE SCHOOL | HIGH SCHOOL | SOME COLLEGE | COLLEGE GRADUATE |
---|---|---|---|---|
Women and men should have equal roles. | 38 | 75 | 83 | 86 |
Abortion should never be allowed. | 38 | 21 | 10 | 7 |
The government should adopt national health insurance. | 45 | 35 | 47 | 42 |
The United States should not concern itself with other nations' problems. | 49 | 26 | 20 | 8 |
Government should see to fair treatment in jobs for African Americans. | 28 | 45 | 49 | 45 |
Government should provide fewer services to reduce government spending. | 30 | 8 | 17 | 27 |
It is assumed that elected officials implement policies favored by the majority.
However, citizens who are more affluent and educated have disproportionate influence over policy decisions.
They tend to vote at higher rates and contribute to campaigns
Americans with different income levels differ in policy preferences, and policies reflect the preference of the most affluent.
The top 40 percent of the population has 70 percent of the total income.
Traditionally, there was an assumption that political attitudes were rooted in self-interest.
However, political scientists now attribute them to other factors:
There are emotional responses to candidates, events, and issues (such as anger, anxiousness, and enthusiasm).
Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign benefited from high enthusiasm from his supporters.
Because responses can be emotional, public opinion is not always rational and is volatile.
Political ideology is a set of underlying orientations, ideas, and beliefs that influences public opinion.
Liberalism and conservatism are the two main political ideologies in the United States today.
Political parties use ideologies to form their platform
Contemporary Republican Party uses conservative ideology, and contemporary Democratic Party uses liberal ideology
Republicans (conservatives) and Democrats (liberals) disagree on:
Immigration policy
Military and defense
Social programs and taxation
Government regulation of business
Education policy
Labor policy
Environmental policy
Cultural policy (abortion, gender expression, marriage, and civil rights)
Interpretation of constitutional guarantees
Economic policy
While the number of Americans identifying themselves as conservatives has remained higher than the number identifying themselves as liberals over the last thirty years, only a slim majority of Americans identify with either label.
Poor people tend to be less conservative and rich people tend to be more conservative, but all income levels have substantial numbers of conservatives, and some rich people are liberal.
Contemporary liberals are people who generally support:
Governmental intervention in the economy to ensure fairness (e.g., greater economic equality, labor rights, better workers compensation)
Expansion of federal social services
Greater concern for consumer rights and protecting the environment
Civil rights (oppose discrimination)
Domestic Issues:
Support government involvement in the economy to protect workers and expand social services.
Advocate for the poor, minorities, women, consumers, and the environment.
Support the separation of church and state.
Foreign Affairs:
Do not put priority on stronger national defense.
Likely to support diplomacy and support international organizations rather than military action.
Examples of Liberal Organizations: Sierra Club, National Organization of Women, World Wildlife Fund, Friends of the Earth
Supports stricter environmental protections
Favors expanded health coverage for all Americans
Advocates increased funding for education
Supports same-sex marriage
Supports abortion rights and birth control
Supports an increase in the minimum wage
Supports more equitable tax policy that benefits middle-class Americans and imposes higher taxes on corporations
Contemporary conservatives are people who generally:
Support fiscal conservatism (e.g., trimming of government spending)
Support business and oppose government intervention in the economy (e.g., tax cuts, deregulation)
Support traditional cultural norms and support government regulation to maintain cultural status quo
Domestic Issues:
Oppose social and economic engineering, such as wealth redistribution, raising minimum wage, and affirmative action.
Favor light business and industry regulation; low taxes for higher earners; traditional family structures; school prayer.
Prioritize fighting crime and follow the rule of law.
Foreign Affairs:
Support stronger military power and strong national defense.
Emphasize border protection.
Less supportive of international organizations and of multilateralism, compared to liberals.
Examples of Conservative Organizations: American Chamber of Commerce, The American Conservative Union
Wants to trim the size of the federal government
Wants to reduce government regulation of business
Supports capital punishment for certain crimes
Opposes restrictions on the right to bear arms
Supports using traditional energy sources and opposes climate change action that reduces manufacturing jobs
Opposes many affirmative action programs
Favors tax cuts
CANDIDATE | PARTY | VOTE TOTAL | PERCENTAGE OF VOTES | ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES* |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 65,147,421 | 48% | 227 |
Donald Trump | Republican | 62,634,907 | 46% | 304 |
Gary Johnson | Libertarian | 4,454,855 | 3% | 0 |
Jill Stein | Green | 1,426,922 | 1% | 0 |
Other candidates | 1,047,140 | 0.8% | 0 |
Political socialization is the process by which citizens internalize beliefs, feelings, and evaluations about the political world into their own thinking.
Political socialization is important to achieve either stability or change in American politics.
The processes of political socialization:
Social Learning Theory – Learning through psychological attachments or identifications to other people; mimicking the opinions of those we respect.
Transfer Theory – Carrying over attitudes developed in a narrower setting; treating the political setting as a family or a school environment, reacting to a political authority as a “father figure” etc.
Cognitive Development Theory – Learning dependent on the stage of an individual’s mental development; emotional ties to the nation’s ideals tend to develop early, but intellectual understanding requires maturity.
The agents of political socialization:
The Family
The family has the first chance at political influence, although politics is not a top priority in most families.
Family influence on political attitudes is greatest when those attitudes relate to topics regularly discussed by the family.
Political differences between parents and children are common.
The School
School is a primary source for information about politics.
Schools can encourage social and political involvement through activities like class and club elections.
Schools also provide role models and authority figures.
School is a gradual and subtle agent of political socialization.
Peer Groups
Peer groups are groups of people, roughly equal in social position, who interact with one another.
Social pressures on group members to conform can be strong.
Peer group pressure can have mixed results.
According to the studies, family is rated as the most important agent of political socialization and a source of a person’s political identification.
Government
Presidential administrations have enormous capacities to shape public opinion
Stress certain issues and not others
Influence how departments depict issues
The media, and the public, will turn attention to issues that the administration advances
Private Groups
Churches, interest groups, community organizations
Very deep and wide reach into society
Deploy specific knowledge effectively
Through press releases, blogs, and other efforts can communicate their messages broadly to reach like-minded individuals easily
Media
Are very effective at telling Americans what issues are important
Can, at times, frame what it means for a politician to be successful
Can sometimes also shape how people understand the meaning of the conflict
Gender gap refers to differences in political views between women and men
Various public opinion polls illustrate the gender gap in public opinion
The Gender Gap: men and women often see issues differently, potentially due to their different socialization experiences.
Men | Women | |
---|---|---|
Percentage saying they have "quite a lot" of confidence in the future of the United States | 46% | 29% |
Percentage saying they approve of President Trump | 53% | 30% |
Additional social group influences:
Economic Class and Group Self-Interest
The interests of the rich and the poor often differ significantly.
This affects opinions on issues such as minimum wage, unemployment benefits, tax policy, and Social Security.
Political Environment: External events can shape opinions.
Example: The baby boomers were exposed to the Vietnam War, and that generation generally opposes war.
J. Zaller’s Research:
Individuals learn about politics by converting information from news, elected officials, and other sources.
Receive Stage: Individuals receive information from various sources.
Accept Stage: Individuals assess information through the lens of their own political views.
People will only accept messages that are consistent with previously held beliefs.
Sample Stage: Individuals select the most recent information when forming their opinion.
J. Zaller’s Research on Public Opinion:
The public tends to rely on elite cues for political information
Public opinion is elite-driven
Elites provide informational shortcuts to the public
Political knowledge in American society:
Research shows most Americans have limited political knowledge of political institutions, processes, and leaders.
Being informed politically requires time, resources, and energy.
Many people rely on “shortcuts” and “cues.”
They get information from trusted party elites, interest groups, media, family, friends, social media, and similar sources.
Many people also just “skim and scan” the news.
Here's a summary of the new information:
Defining Public Opinion: Public opinion relates to attitudes about candidates, issues, and events. Political ideology is a more systematic political philosophy, shaping public opinion.
How We Form Political Opinions: Agents of socialization include family, social organizations, media, social networks, education, personalities, and geography.
Demographic Factors: Gender, age, economic status, race, ethnicity, religious and political affiliation influence our opinions. Examples of differences in public opinion due to these factors can be found on pages 219, 223, 230, and 221.
Political Knowledge and Changes in Public Opinion: Public opinion changes, but political knowledge is generally low. People often take cues from political elites. J. Zaller argues that public opinion is elite-driven, with the public seeking informational shortcuts from elites.
The Media, Government, and Public Opinion: Public officials are interested in and influenced by public opinion. They also seek to shape public opinion, as do presidents and other public figures.
Public Opinion and Government Policy: There is a dynamic relationship between public opinion, government, elites, and policy. More affluent and educated people tend to participate more in politics, leading to class bias.
Measuring Public Opinion: Various techniques exist, but polls can be wrong. Polls are important for elected officials.
**
Public opinion is gathered through polls and interviews, reflecting American political culture.
Political opinions are based on beliefs and attitudes formed in childhood, which evolve into a set of norms.
Political socialization trains individuals to understand and participate in the country’s political world, starting at a young age with family and school as primary agents.
Beliefs acquired early in life are unlikely to change dramatically, shaping our political ideology.
Beliefs have become more polarized over the last decade.
An agent of political socialization is a source of political information intended to guide citizens in their political system.
Family and school are the most prominent agents of socialization, with social groups and media also playing influential roles.
Polling has evolved from straw polls to modern, sophisticated scientific instruments.
Scientific polling involves identifying the desired population, building a random and representative sample, and minimizing the margin of error.
Polls may face challenges related to timing, human nature, framing, leading questions, lack of knowledge, and social pressure.
Ideological shifts are more likely if a voter’s ideology is weakly supported by their beliefs.
Citizens may use heuristics, such as political party membership, or research to form opinions.
Demographic cues like gender, race, socio-economic status, and interest-group affiliation also serve as heuristics.
State political culture can affect opinions.
Important political opinion leaders, or political elites, also shape public opinion through cues and information.
Social policy consists of government’s attempts to regulate public behavior in the service of a better society.
Shifts in party allegiance and cultural changes are occurring in American politics.
Americans' opinions about public policy include acceptance of same-sex marriage and debates around reducing gun violence.
During a president’s term public approval ratings may spike due to events.
Overall, it appears that presidents try to move move public opinion towards personal positions rather than moving themselves towards the public’s opinion.
Questions
Why is diffuse support important to maintaining a stable democracy? What happens when a government does not have diffuse support?
Diffuse support creates stability in politics, acceptance of the government of legitimate, and preserving the system, without those traits the country undergoes political and social upheaval.
What are the ways the media socialize a person?
The media socializes audiences to information, framing or choosing the way information is presented, covert content is factual information, the internet and social media.
Is public opinion generally clear, providing broad signals to elected leaders about what needs to be done? Why or why not?
No, because the public is often not perfectly informed about politics, so politicians realize public opinion may not always be the right choice.
When should political leaders not follow public opinion, and why?
-When there is a policy that directly affects personal economics, such as tax policy, affects civil liberties or closely held beliefs and policies that break new ground.
Why should a poll be scientific rather than informal?
A scientific poll is due to their random and representative sample and minimizing the margin or error.
What heuristics, or cues, do voters use to pick a presidential candidate? Are these a good way to pick a president?
Voters use heuristics such as gender, race, socio-economic status and interest group affiliations.
These cues can simplify complex decisions but may not always align with a candidate's qualifications or policies, potentially leading to misinformed choices.