DP

Chapter 9: Global Economic Growth and Development

🌍 Introduction

  • Economic growth is central to understanding prosperity.

  • Concerns: U.S. regulations may restrict growth.

  • First, we must define & measure economic growth.


📈 9.1 How Do We Define Economic Growth?

  • Definition: Increase in per capita real GDP (annual rate).

  • Graphical view: Outward shift in Production Possibilities Curve (PPC).

  • International Example:

    • India GDP > Italy, but India is poorer due to much larger population.

  • Importance of Growth Rates:

    • Small differences compound massively over decades.

    • Rule of 70: Doubling time = 70 ÷ growth rate.

      • China (8.1%) doubles in ~9 years.

      • India (4.5%) doubles in ~16 years.

  • Costs & Benefits:

    • Benefits → higher living standards, more consumption.

    • Costs → pollution, stress, inequality.


9.2 Productivity, Saving, and New Technologies

  • Growth Equation:
    Growth = Capital growth + Labor growth + Productivity growth.

  • Labor Productivity: Real GDP ÷ workers (or hours worked).

  • Saving & Investment:

    • Consume less today → save more → future capital & growth.

  • New Growth Theory:

    • Tech & innovation are independent growth drivers.

    • More rewards → more technological progress.

  • Research & Development (R&D):

    • Patents (20 years) protect inventors, encourage innovation.

  • Innovation: Turning invention into practical value = real wealth creation.

  • Human Capital:

    • Education & skills raise productivity & living standards.

    • Example: U.S. H-1B visa cap for skilled workers fills almost immediately.


🧑‍🤝‍🧑 9.3 Immigration & Property Rights

  • Immigration: Brings labor, skills, and consumer demand → fuels growth.

  • Property Rights: Secure ownership encourages:

    • Capital accumulation.

    • Entrepreneurship & innovation.


🌐 9.4 Economic Development

  • Definition: Study of raising living standards in low-income nations.

  • Poverty Perspective:

    • ~50% of people live at subsistence level.

    • ~10% live on <$2/day.

    • U.S. poverty line > average global income.

  • Population Growth:

    • Current world: 7.5B → 10B by 2050 (mostly developing nations).

    • Malthus predicted food shortages → proven wrong (food grew faster).

  • Demographics & Development:

    • Growth → smaller families, falling birthrates.

    • Modernization lowers infant mortality & reliance on children for old-age care.

  • Stages of Development:

    1. Agriculture

    2. Manufacturing

    3. Services

  • Keys to Development:

    • Strong property rights.

    • Educated population.

    • Creative destruction (new replaces old).

    • Limited protectionism.


🏦 9.5 Stagnant Growth in Developed Nations?

  • Secular Stagnation: Prolonged weak growth in advanced economies.

  • History:

    • Began in Europe (“Eurosclerosis”), spread to U.S. by 2010s.

  • Generational Trends:

    • 1960s: ~2.5% annual per capita growth → ~64% rise in 20 years.

    • 2000s: ~1% annual growth → ~22% rise in 20 years.

  • Causes:

    • New tech not raising productivity much.

    • Slow growth of capital & labor.

    • Lower payoffs from human capital investments.

    • Restrictive government/regulatory policies.

  • Case: Japan → shrinking workforce + aging capital = long-term stagnation.


📌 Issues & Applications

  • Income Inequality & Growth:

    • OECD: inequality reduces growth, but only slowly (50 yrs = 1% GDP drop).

    • Critics: inequality encourages investment & saving → growth.

  • Regulations & Growth:

    • “Ease-of-doing-business” rankings tied to growth.

    • Both number and quality of regulations matter.


Key Takeaways

  • Economic growth = rising per capita GDP.

  • Small growth rate differences matter massively over time.

  • Productivity, saving, technology, and human capital drive long-term growth.

  • Immigration & property rights fuel growth.

  • Development requires education, property rights, openness, and innovation.

  • Developed nations face stagnation due to demographics, tech slowdowns, and policy issues.