Definition: AD = C + I + G + NX, where:
C = Consumer spending
I = Investment spending
G = Government spending
NX = Net exports (Exports - Imports)
Shifts in AD are caused by changes in:
Consumer confidence: Higher confidence leads to increased spending and a rightward shift of the AD curve. Lower confidence leads to decreased spending and a leftward shift.
Investment expectations: Optimistic expectations about future profitability increase investment, shifting AD to the right. Pessimistic expectations decrease investment, shifting AD to the left.
Government spending/tax policy: Increased government spending or tax cuts increase AD (rightward shift). Decreased government spending or tax increases decrease AD (leftward shift).
Net exports: Increased net exports (exports > imports) increase AD (rightward shift). Decreased net exports (exports < imports) decrease AD (leftward shift).
Shifts in SRAS are caused by:
Input prices (e.g., wages): Higher input prices (like wages) decrease SRAS (leftward shift). Lower input prices increase SRAS (rightward shift).
Expectations of inflation: Higher expected inflation decreases SRAS (leftward shift) as firms anticipate higher costs. Lower expected inflation increases SRAS (rightward shift).
Temporary shocks: Adverse supply shocks (e.g., natural disasters, sudden increase in oil prices) decrease SRAS (leftward shift). Positive supply shocks increase SRAS (rightward shift).
LRAS is vertical at the potential output level.
Shifts in LRAS are caused by:
Labor force changes: An increase in the labor force increases LRAS (rightward shift). A decrease in the labor force decreases LRAS (leftward shift).
Technology advancements: Technological improvements increase LRAS (rightward shift) by increasing productivity.
Capital stock changes: An increase in the capital stock (e.g., more machines, factories) increases LRAS (rightward shift). A decrease in the capital stock decreases LRAS (leftward shift).
Natural resources: Discovery of new natural resources increases LRAS (rightward shift). Depletion of natural resources decreases LRAS (leftward shift).
Draw initial equilibrium: Start by drawing the AD, SRAS, and LRAS curves intersecting at the initial equilibrium point.
Identify which curve shifts: Determine which curve (AD, SRAS, or LRAS) is affected by the given scenario and the direction of the shift (left or right).
Show new short-run equilibrium: Illustrate the new intersection point of the shifted curve with the unchanged curve(s). This identifies the new short-run equilibrium.
Show long-run adjustment (if necessary): If the short-run equilibrium is not at the LRAS, show how the SRAS curve will eventually shift to bring the economy back to long-run equilibrium.
Label changes: Clearly label the changes in:
Price Level (P): Increase or decrease
Output (Y): Increase or decrease
Unemployment (U): Increase or decrease (inverse relationship with output)
The following table outlines the effects of different scenarios on the AD-AS model. FE stands for Full Employment and NR stands for Natural Rate.
Scenario | SR Curve Shift | LR Curve Shift | P | Y | U |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Permanent consumer optimism | AD right | SRAS left (eventually) | uparrow then FE | uparrow then NR | downarrow then NR |
Permanent investor optimism | AD right | SRAS left (eventually) | uparrow then FE | uparrow then NR | downarrow then NR |
Temporary consumer optimism | AD right | No LR shift | uparrow then back to FE | uparrow then back | downarrow then back |
Temporary investor optimism | AD right | No LR shift | uparrow then back to FE | uparrow then back | downarrow then back |
Permanent increase in exports | AD right | SRAS left (eventually) | uparrow then FE | uparrow then NR | downarrow then NR |
Permanent decrease in exports | AD left | SRAS right (finally) | downarrow then FE | downarrow then NR | uparrow then NR |
Permanent increase in imports | AD left | SRAS right (finally) | downarrow then FE | downarrow then NR | uparrow then NR |
Temporary increase in imports | AD left | No LR shift | downarrow then back to FE | downarrow then back | uparrow then back |