week 3: civil war; thucydides, philips.

Intro to civ war

• Highly contested. Theres a very basic definition emphasizingn two characteristics

1. A voiolent conflict that occurs inside a state (intrastate)

2. A violent conflict between govt forces and organized armed rebel groups

• This distinguishes civ wars from intersttste war and one sided state repression. 

• Organized for one reason: distinguishes real civil wars where theres two sides from cases wherein the govt is waging war against ppl. Not rllllly civil war. Civil war there has to be two sides with some sort of organization. 

Many shapes and sizes

• Other civil wars can differ in terms of how violent they are, how long they last, whether they provoke un peacekeeping missions, and how they end

• Rebel groups seeking control of central govt 

• Rebel groups seeking to control territory and create a separate state of their own. 

1945-2000

• Civil war is a form of political violence and its common. Very long thousand year history

• During this period, each year the world experienced an average of 30 civ wars and 2 interstate wars. 

• Violence inside the state, not rlly violence between states. 

Where do they happen

• Poli sci researchers say that its weak and poor states. 

  • The govt doesnt have enough capacity to repress and punish or destory any challenges. 

• Widespread poverty can encourage anti govt sentiment and incentivize rebel groups. Resentment against leaders for the economic situtiaotn. 

• Weak govts lack thea bilty to impose law and order as well as the ability to deter violent anti govt actions. 

Civil war in the US?

• Republican poll (40%) think that violent action against the govt si sometimes justified. 

Making sense of civ war

• Thucydidies! Hereafter references as thucy. 

• Bagan in 427 bce. Four years after the start of the pelop war. Divided on the issue of how the city should be governed. Two sides

1. The commons: who ruled the city at the time. Democrats. Pro athens

   1. Wanted polocymaking power ot be in teh hands of the citizens

2. The oligarchs: more authoritarian. Pro sparta

   1. Wanted policymakinng power ot be in the hands of smaller group elites. Deciding funding, taxes, healthcare, etc. more dictatorial. 

How did the civ war unfold?

1. First, thte corinthians decided ot release a number of prisoners they had captured from corcyra on the condition they return to their city and encourage it to ally w sparta. 

• The sea battle part! “We’ll release u and send u back if u enforce corcyran leadership to join sparta and end relations w athens!” didnt ppl rather kill themselves than do this?

2. Second, despite efforts of the prisoners hte corcyraen leadership stayed allied w athens

3. Third, after rejection, the conspiraotrs charged the peithias-pro athenian senaor- witth seeking to enslave the city

• The charges were rejected and peithias sought revenge, butt the conspirators stormed the corcy senate and killed him + 60 others. 

• “Ima punish u in return biatch” but the prisoners were one step ahead of him. 

4. Fourth, violence ensued between the pro athenian commons and pro spartan oligarchs. The commons enlisted the corcy slaves to fight w them while the oligcarchs hired mercenaries

   1. We need to end this civil war. Make sure the rlationship was kept. 

5. Ffith, athens and sparta got involved. Athens sought to end the conflict by negioating a  peace settlement. 

6. Sparttan military fled after hearing that a large atthenian fleett was coming back. T

   1. There were a few days that sparta ruled. Pro athenian faction inside corcy engaged in significant levels of violence aginst anyone that is the enemy of democracy. 

• This is where it ends.

Thucy and the civ war

1. Civil wars can be violent affairs, unleashing hatreds. 

   1. Thucy was super intense abt this. 

   2. Thucy doesnt tell us a lot of corcy and how it was like, but this civ war was intense. All hell broke loose. 

   3. Underlying all this moderation nd stability, theres willingness to kill our neighbours. Thucy goes on to make a big point about human nature. I wrote a few in notion. 

2. Civil wars can lead ot the unpending of social order

   1. Literally turns society on its head. Words slip meanings. Relationships are overturned. Values that were praiseworthy are now things to be ridiculed. 

   2. Civil war is a social phenomena

3. Civil wars can spread from state to state

   1. Like a disease. This is part of the syrian reading! Its proximity to other troubling nations made it more likely to have internal conflict. 

4. Civil wars can involve foreign actors, especially during times of interstate war

   1. Again, syria comes in here. 

   2. Athens and sparta got involved in corcy’s policy and war because of it. Athenians sent naval fleets, sparts send land forces to defeat the dems. 

   3. Civil wars bring in foreign interventions. Ripple effect. 

Thucy and modern civ wars

• Offers useful insights. At least 4 attributes of civil wars. But can these be applied to modern civil wars?

1. Civil wars can be violent affairs, fact or false

   1. Fact. syrian civil war has many dead. 

   2. Complete meltdown of humanity - the un

2. Civil wars can lead to social breakdown nd collapse, fact or false

   1. Fact. 22 million ppl had to relocate internationally or internally. 

   2. 90% live in poverty. 

3. Civil wars spread, fact or false

   1. Fact. literally mentioned it earlier. That one 4 pg reading. Gelditsch. 

4. Civil wars cna involve foreign actors, fact or false

   1. Fact duh. Interventionism is central to teh syrian civil war. 

Break

What was the syrian civ war? The basics

• Started march 2011. Tteens protested calling for the fall of syrian gov

• They were detained and tortttued sparking protests all over the country

• The govt responded w force, firing at unarmed rpotesters and mass arrestts, ttorture, adn extrtajudicial killiings. 

• Mid 2011, armed rebel groups formed. Included the free syria army, kurdish ppls prottection units and a number of groups affiliated w al qaeda and the islamic state. 

• The past 12 yrs we;ve seen tons of violence between syrian govt and other groups

Understanding intenrrational dimensions of the syrian civ war

• Outlines specific ways that foreign states (iran, qatar, russia, saudi, turkey, and teh us) and non state actors (kurds, al qauda, isis) have acaused and influence the conflict in syra since 2011. 

  • Trying to describe how theyve intervened and integrated themselves. Main focus

• Core arg: contrary to a lot fo widely held views that its a domestic affair, its actually best udnerstood as a transnational civil war. International proxy war. 

  • All the rebel groups being supported by foreign actors makes it a non-domestic affair. Everyone is funding and supporting different sides as means of indirectly fighting each other.

• Pg38 author outlines his core argument. Starting at “syria’s conflict is not a domestic civil war…”

• His core three points

1. The Syrian civil war occurred at a time characterized by change and the struggle for power in the middle east. 

   1. This was spurred by a decline in us power resulting in increased assertiveness of iran, saudi, turkey and qatar, teh return of russia, and rise of jihadist militant groups.

   2. Americans started to back off from teh region. Less military presence. Withdrawing a lot. This meant that the other regional powers sought to do something “the big scary americans are gone so now we can have more influence on our neighbours around us”. 

2. Syria's geography facilitated international involvement in its domestic politics

   1. Those affiliated w al qaeda and isi could easily travel across poorly defended national border to get territory

   2. From turkey, kurdish militant groups looking to secure territory of their own could travel to syria and support other kurds there

   3. Lebanon, weapons and personnel could flow to support syrian govt. 

   4. The south, russian jets could launch bombing raids against anti govt rebels. 

   5. You can do so much with territory! Whoda thunk it. 

   6. Syria was geographically accessible for so many actors that could use the civil war to their advantage

3. The foreign actors who got involved cause the conflict to be crazy violent.  (i wrote all thtese in notion hehe)

   1.  Calls for regime change by the us incentivized pro asaad govts in rian and russia to do more to protect their ally

   2. Calls for regime change also incentivized anti asaad rebel groups and their abckers in saudi, turkey and qatar, to take more assertive action in hopes that military victories would attract more us troops. 

      1. If we can be successful and claim territory, america will help us! They’ll help the more assertive power to rlly overthrow the govt. 

• For these reasons, the syria civil war was super international (thucy was right!). Everyone was getting involved sneakily. Not domestic, very complicated multi faceted with local actors, global actors. 

• I am arguing that thucy is useful is my essay! History speaks volumes and truth. Legends are lessons, they reign with truths - merida LOL

• But tbf there are things in civil wars that thucy doesnt touch on. 

• Two questions thucy does not answer (mind u, its not ur job tto answer them, we’re simply pointing out that HE doesnt answer them)

  • Why do civ wars happen in the first place?

  • How do civ wars spread?

The first question, causes of the civil war

• In corcy, why would hte oligcarchs facion figh against the commons leadership?

• Thucy has one sentence abt this

  • “At the roott of all this…” (3.82)

  • It was caused by greed and ambition. But thats it. 

  • Is this compelling? Not rlly. Theres more to it i think. 

  • Its actually more grievances that drive civil war. Disatisfaction

Lets apply these to syria

• Many have argues that at the root, theres decades of grievances against the syrian gov. Authoritarian state. No opportunity to affect govt policy. 

  • This can def be a reason why rebels emerge. 

• More greivannces: in 2000, al assa came to power after his dad died ad many were hopeful that he would be progressive. Spoiler alert, he was not. 

  • This man was literally a doctor educated in the UK. he seemed pretty democratic. What a let down. He even said that syria had a desperate need for democracy! Woah. 

  • Anyone who spoke out against him ended up in jail. 

  • Apple doesnt fall far from the tree. 

  • Engaged in more torture, poltiical imporisonment, and extrajudicial killing. More and more repressive as time goes on. By 2011, it was the lowest of the low in the human rights scale. 

• Govts gross mismanagement of the economy, especially of the agricultural sector, led to widespread rural unemployment and food insecurity  

  • Syria experienced a whole host of economic depression

  • The youth were also suffering

  • Youth unemployment rates were so high. 

• So far we have decent reasons to believe its grievances and not greed. 

• But what abt phillips argument that civil war was caused by foregin actors? Is that not greed?

• Why do foreign actors care?

1. Maintain a friendly land bridge linking iran ot the mediterranean sea (via iraq and syria) to let them move thru their territory and access global markets

2. Establish  presence on israel's northern border to provide a staging ground for either offensive or defensive military actions. 

Who’s grieving and who’s greedy? Subjecive?

To identify why civ wars spread, consider the following

1. Why did protests in tunisia =, libya, and egypt contribute to civ war in syria

2. Why would civil war in serbia and kosovo contribtue to civil war in macedonia in 2000s?