Chapter 7 - Democratic Transition
In this chapter, we look at the bottom-up and top-down processes that might lead to democratic transitions. Through a popular revolution, the people rise up to topple an authoritarian ruler in a bottom-up process. A top-down process occurs when the authoritarian governing elite implements liberalizing measures that eventually lead to democratization.
The great majority of nations that won independence in the 1950s and 1960s quickly became dictatorships. By 1977, there were 2.6 times as many dictatorships and democracies, with just 28% of the world's countries being democratic.
The spread of democracy around the world has occurred in waves, according to Samuel Huntington (1991, 15), with a wave being “a group of transitions from non-democratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period of time.”
The three waves of democracy, like real waves, have had weaker undercurrents moving in the opposite direction. As a result, there have been periods between the three waves of democracy when some, but not all, of the nations that had previously made the transition to democracy, reverted to tyranny. The breakdown of democracy in most of Europe in the 1920s and 1930s, for example, resulted in a return to traditional forms of authoritarian control.
Although most real-world instances are likely to include elements of both types of transition processes, examining these two transition processes individually can be instructive. In Box 8.2, the third sort of process, a democratic transition imposed by external players, is briefly explored.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States reignited the argument over whether democracy can be imposed on a country by military force. The argument has focused on whether the success of democratic nation-building is dependent on the external force's identity. Some politicians, such as former French President Jacques Chirac (1995–2007), have claimed that the best way to achieve military intervention and democracy development is through a wide multilateral coalition of (European) democratic governments.
The influence of military interventions on the level of democracy in the "target state" is examined by Bueno de Mesquita and Downs to test their argument. Between 1946 and 2001, they focused on military interventions in the aftermath of civil wars and intrastate conflicts, militarized interstate disputes, and interstate wars.
In November 1989, protesters on the streets of Leipzig and Berlin drove the Communist East German government to open the Berlin Wall and enable free multi-party elections, one of the most spectacular examples of a bottom-up transition to democracy.
Although the fall of communism in East Germany, and Eastern Europe in general, appears predictable from our vantage point, most observers at the time were completely surprised. Communist governments had been extremely stable until 1989. Indeed, during the whole postwar period, there had been very few significant upheavals or revolts in Eastern Europe.
The election of Mikhail Gorbachev as general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union on March 11, 1985, had a significant role in the final downfall of communism in East Germany.
Perestroika and glasnost were two reform programs implemented by Gorbachev in response to these problems. Perestroika was a program aimed at liberalizing and reviving the Soviet economy, whereas glasnost was a policy aimed at increasing political openness and promoting freedom of speech.
Traveling to neighboring Communist countries in Eastern Europe had always been relatively easy for East Germans, but getting permission to go to the West had been nearly difficult. In September 1989, 13,000 East Germans crossed Hungary's open border into the West. Thousands of additional East Germans attempted to gain access to the West by organizing sit-ins at West German embassies in other Eastern European towns, such as Prague.
Despite the fact that tens of thousands of East Germans had departed the nation, a new opposition party named Neues Forum (New Forum) emerged in the country, calling for reform. Protests by the opposition began on the streets of Leipzig and East Berlin. “We want out!” shouted the masses at first.
In this chapter, we look at the bottom-up and top-down processes that might lead to democratic transitions. Through a popular revolution, the people rise up to topple an authoritarian ruler in a bottom-up process. A top-down process occurs when the authoritarian governing elite implements liberalizing measures that eventually lead to democratization.
The great majority of nations that won independence in the 1950s and 1960s quickly became dictatorships. By 1977, there were 2.6 times as many dictatorships and democracies, with just 28% of the world's countries being democratic.
The spread of democracy around the world has occurred in waves, according to Samuel Huntington (1991, 15), with a wave being “a group of transitions from non-democratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period of time.”
The three waves of democracy, like real waves, have had weaker undercurrents moving in the opposite direction. As a result, there have been periods between the three waves of democracy when some, but not all, of the nations that had previously made the transition to democracy, reverted to tyranny. The breakdown of democracy in most of Europe in the 1920s and 1930s, for example, resulted in a return to traditional forms of authoritarian control.
Although most real-world instances are likely to include elements of both types of transition processes, examining these two transition processes individually can be instructive. In Box 8.2, the third sort of process, a democratic transition imposed by external players, is briefly explored.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States reignited the argument over whether democracy can be imposed on a country by military force. The argument has focused on whether the success of democratic nation-building is dependent on the external force's identity. Some politicians, such as former French President Jacques Chirac (1995–2007), have claimed that the best way to achieve military intervention and democracy development is through a wide multilateral coalition of (European) democratic governments.
The influence of military interventions on the level of democracy in the "target state" is examined by Bueno de Mesquita and Downs to test their argument. Between 1946 and 2001, they focused on military interventions in the aftermath of civil wars and intrastate conflicts, militarized interstate disputes, and interstate wars.
In November 1989, protesters on the streets of Leipzig and Berlin drove the Communist East German government to open the Berlin Wall and enable free multi-party elections, one of the most spectacular examples of a bottom-up transition to democracy.
Although the fall of communism in East Germany, and Eastern Europe in general, appears predictable from our vantage point, most observers at the time were completely surprised. Communist governments had been extremely stable until 1989. Indeed, during the whole postwar period, there had been very few significant upheavals or revolts in Eastern Europe.
The election of Mikhail Gorbachev as general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union on March 11, 1985, had a significant role in the final downfall of communism in East Germany.
Perestroika and glasnost were two reform programs implemented by Gorbachev in response to these problems. Perestroika was a program aimed at liberalizing and reviving the Soviet economy, whereas glasnost was a policy aimed at increasing political openness and promoting freedom of speech.
Traveling to neighboring Communist countries in Eastern Europe had always been relatively easy for East Germans, but getting permission to go to the West had been nearly difficult. In September 1989, 13,000 East Germans crossed Hungary's open border into the West. Thousands of additional East Germans attempted to gain access to the West by organizing sit-ins at West German embassies in other Eastern European towns, such as Prague.
Despite the fact that tens of thousands of East Germans had departed the nation, a new opposition party named Neues Forum (New Forum) emerged in the country, calling for reform. Protests by the opposition began on the streets of Leipzig and East Berlin. “We want out!” shouted the masses at first.
