RR

Population Growth

% Change in Food Demand = % Change in Population Growth + % Change in Income x IEoD

  • Population increasing at a decreasing rate is because the birth rate is dropping not because death rate is increasing

  • Since Population Growth is 7%, Qatar should be producing 7% more food, etc. 

Demographic Transition Model

  • X axis: Income

  • Crude Birth Rate (on top): # of births in a geographic area (country) in a given year / per 100 ppl

    • Demographic Momentum:

      • A big reason why CBRs tend to decrease slowly

      • This is slow to decline because of demographic momentum: high total fertility rates can lead to high population growth in multiple future generations. (1st gen has 4, next has 8, etc). When the TFR drops below the Replacement Rate of CBR, the population begins to decrease. 

      • Gen 1 (Pop: 4, TFR: 4): 4

      • Gen 2 (Pop: 8, TFR: 2): 8

      • Gen 3: Pop: 8 (each pair has 2 kids)

  • Crude Death Rate (under neath CBR): # of deaths in a geographic area in a given year / per 100 ppl

  • Replacement Rate of CBR: 2.1 (.1 to account for child mortality or if they died before birth)

  • Rate of Natural Increase (NI) = CBR - CDR

    • Does not account for migration

  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR): (U.S. = 1.7) The number of children that the median woman (child bearer) have 

    • What’s Leading to Decrease:

      • Female Empowerment:

        • Increasing female income, employment, birth control

      • Infant Mortality Rates Decreasing (Infants may not be able to live till adulthood, so some may have more but not there’s no need for compensation)

      • Increased Standards of Living (Income)

      • Urbanization

  • Rule of 72: a variable that grows exponentially at rate r will double in: 72/r time periods

    • Canada's population growth is currently 3%. If this rate of growth continues, its population will double in 72/3 = 24 years

    • P = P + (1+r)^t

  • As population growth decelerates, other factors are having a greater influence on trends in food demand

    • With population growth decreasing recently, growth in food demand in the 21st century will be driven more by improved living standards than population