Ideology and Political Attitudes – NZAVS & Related Research

Political Polarization in New Zealand (2009-2018)

• Longitudinal source: Satherley, Greaves, Osborne, & Sibley (2020) – “State of the Nation” study using NZAVS data.
• Change-point context (governing party):
  • 2008-2011: National-led government
  • 2011-2014: National-led
  • 2014-2017: National-led
  • 2017-2020: Labour-led
• Attitudinal domains examined for evidence of growing gaps:
  • Political conservatism
  • In-party warmth vs. out-party coldness (affective polarization)
  • Immigration & trade
  • Gender attitudes
  • Policy & equality attitudes
  • Authoritarian attitudes
  • NZ-specific intergroup attitudes
  • Environmental concern
  • Societal fairness
  • National attachment
• Key findings
  • Affective polarization was stable for National voters but rose among Labour & Green voters – dislike of National increased.
  • When gaps widened they resulted from all voters shifting in the same direction but at different rates, rather than people moving in opposite directions.
  • Greatest divergence found for perceptions of overall fairness, Māori resource redress (e.g., reserved medical-school places, compulsory Māori language), and symbolic equality policies.

Gender Polarization (U.S. Gallup Trend – Comparative Backdrop)

• Question: “Very conservative … very liberal?” – % Liberal / Very liberal.
• 2001-2007 averages: Women 18-29 ≈ 40 %, Men 18-29 ≈ 27 %; Women 30+ ≈ 25 %, Men 30+ ≈ 20 %.
• 2008-2016: gap persists.
• 2017-2024: young women continue a pronounced leftward shift (“leftward expansion”).
• Illustrates global gender-by-age ideological cleavage that also appears in NZAVS samples (see below).

Political Orientation Across the Life-Span (NZAVS 2022 cross-section)

Women

• Political conservatism plotted against age cohorts (n and regression statistics printed on slide).
• Intercept (i), linear slope (s), quadratic component (q) reported for each 5-year birth cohort (e.g., 1990-86: i=3.48,\;s=0.38,\;q=0.16).
• General pattern: younger women slightly less conservative; midlife rise; modest late-life decline.

Men

• Same layout; 1990-86 cohort: i=4.32,\;s=1.14,\;q=0.33 (men start more conservative).
• Life-course trajectory steeper for men; cohort differences mirror gender polarization.

Vaccination Attitudes Becoming Polarized

• Source: Lee & Sibley (2020), EClinicalMedicine.
• Multi-wave NZAVS vaccination-safety items (pre-COVID).
• Trend: Overall average acceptance rose, but standard deviation also rose – indicating simultaneous growth of stronger pro- and anti-vaccination camps.

Feeling Thermometer Ratings

• Instrument: 0 (“cold”) – 100 (“warm”) scale; originally ANES 1964.
• NZAVS module (Sibley et al., 2020) compares warmth toward multiple ethnic & religious groups.
• Enables questions such as “Which group is most liked?” and in-group vs out-group warmth.

Christchurch Terror Attacks (15 Mar 2019)

• 51 fatalities, far-right perpetrator.

Immediate attitudinal impact (Regression-Discontinuity)

• Two linear slopes: pre-attack & post-attack warmth toward Muslims.
• Sharp upward discontinuity at attack date → sizable instantaneous increase in warmth.

Government satisfaction (Satherley et al., 2023)

• Short-term “rally‐round‐the-flag”: satisfaction jumped despite earlier downward trend, then decayed to baseline after ≈ 2-3 months.

Longer-term Muslim acceptance (Bulbulia et al., 2023)

• Year-2 & year-3 effects moderated by baseline ideology:
  • Liberals – initial boost sustained.
  • Conservatives – acceptance increased relative to counterfactual forecast (i.e., conservatives drifted positively over time).

COVID-19 Lockdown Attitude Shifts

• NZ March–May 2020 “Level 4” national lockdown.
• Satherley et al. (2022): across-time political attitude panel.
  • General “rally” effect: trust & satisfaction rose.
  • Left vs right voters diverged in size and duration of effect.

Dual Process Model of Ideology (Duckitt, 2001)

• Two motivational/values axes:
  1. Threat → Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA)
  2. Competition → Social Dominance Orientation (SDO)
• Together predict most variance in prejudice, hierarchy support, policy views.

Core Worldviews & Traits

• Dangerous Worldview – social world seen as unsafe.
• Competitive Jungle – world seen as zero-sum.

Key attitude syndromes

• Right-Wing Authoritarianism: preference for order, conformity, authority.
• Social Dominance Orientation: preference for group-based hierarchy.

Generalised Prejudice

• Broad negativity toward multiple disadvantaged out-groups; largely accounted for by RWA + SDO combination.

Measuring RWA & SDO (sample items)

• RWA: “Better to trust the judgment of proper authorities…” / “Country will be destroyed unless we smash the perversions eating away at our moral fibre.”
• SDO: “Inferior groups should stay in their place.” / reverse-coded egalitarian statements.

Experimental Threat Manipulations (Sandrian Immigrant Scenarios)

• Four vignettes used to prime specific intergroup threats:
  • Direct Economic Competition
  • Disadvantaged but non-competitive
  • Social Threat (values deviance)
  • Control (no threat).
• Classic finding:
  • RWA heightens negativity primarily to social-threat profiles.
  • SDO heightens negativity primarily to economic-competition profiles (Duckitt & Sibley, 2010).

Age & Cohort Trajectories in RWA & SDO (Zubielevitch et al., 2023)

• Threat sensitivity increases with age → predicted U-shape for RWA: lowest at ≈ 18 yrs, rises through mid & later life.
• SDO tied to status accumulation: may rise through mid-career then plateau/decline post-retirement.
• Cohort (impressionable years) hypothesis: formative period norms leave durable ideological imprint that overlays aging effects.

Ambivalent Sexism Theory & Evidence

• Two components (Glick & Fiske, 1996):
  • Hostile Sexism – overtly negative control-oriented statements (e.g., “Women tease men then refuse advances”).
  • Benevolent Sexism – subjectively positive but paternalistic (“A good woman should be set on a pedestal”).
• Dual-Process antecedents:
  • Hostile = SDO-driven (competition/control).
  • Benevolent = RWA-driven (protection/ordering).
• Longitudinal NZAVS growth-curve (Huang et al., 2019): both HS & BS declined 2010-2017 → gradual egalitarian shift.
• Age trajectories (Hammond et al., 2018): HS increases with age; BS highest in midlife, flatter thereafter.
• Latent profile work (Sibley & Becker, 2012) shows distinct ambivalent, hostile-only, benevolent-only, and egalitarian respondent clusters.

Video-Game Addiction Scale (Adapted IGD-9)

• Nine DSM-5-aligned symptoms (preoccupation, tolerance, withdrawal, persistence, escape, problems, deception, displacement, conflict) assessed with 0-4 Likert anchors.

Descriptive stats (NZAVS wave; N≈2700)

• Highest mean: Escape \bar{x}=1.39 (SD = 1.15).
• Overall composite mean \bar{x}=0.55 (SD ≈ 0.49).
• Age relation:
  • Linear regression \hat{y}=0.76-4.58\times10^{-3}(\text{Age}); R^{2}=0.025.
  • Correlation r=-.159,\;p<.001 (older participants report fewer symptoms).
• Frequency distribution: majority at 0; long right tail up to 4.

Methodological Highlight: Regression-Discontinuity Design (Christchurch Example)

• Assumes time trend is smooth absent intervention; calculates causal jump at known cut-point.
• Advantage: uses naturally staggered survey completions to approximate quasi-experiment.

Ethical & Practical Implications

• Polarization findings help target dialogue efforts at fairness, Māori policy, and vaccination messaging where cleavages widen fastest.
• Dual-Process insights guide interventions: threat-reduction vs hierarchy-challenge approaches tailored to RWA vs SDO audiences.
• Post-terror acceptance gains suggest potential for pro-social norm shifts even after tragedy – policy may consolidate gains via inclusive messaging.
• Video-game addiction data indicate youth-focused mental-health resources; aging effect suggests different prevention targets across lifespan.

Connections & Cross-Links

• Feeling-thermometer warmth toward Muslims rose sharply after 2019, paralleling decline in hostile sexism & rise in egalitarian attitudes – evidence for broadly shared egalitarian trend in NZ society.
• Gender polarization (young women leftward) intersects with ambivalent sexism trends – decreasing BS/HS may empower issue salience for young women.
• COVID-19 rally effects mirror Christchurch but decay faster; both illustrate context-driven temporary attitude change layered over stable ideological traits (RWA/SDO).