(Mod 12) From Great Game to Grand Bargain Ending Chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid

1. Why the “Great Game” is Breaking Down

  • 19th‑century British–Russian rivalry → now replaced by many actors (U.S., NATO, Pakistan, India, Iran, Taliban, al‑Qaeda).

  • Violence is globalized, not a distant chess match.

  • Afghanistan is no longer a passive “board” — local actors now shape the conflict.

2. The Core Problem (2001–2008)

  • Taliban + al‑Qaeda regrouped in Pakistan’s tribal areas (FATA).

  • Afghan government under Karzai is weak, corrupt, and losing legitimacy.

  • Pakistan is politically unstable; its military and intelligence (ISI) are divided.

  • U.S. strategy is stuck in “war on terror” framing → treats all opponents as the same.

3. Why Current Strategies Fail

A. Military Limits

  • More U.S./NATO troops alone cannot fix Afghanistan.

  • Airstrikes → civilian casualties → more insurgent recruits.

  • Afghan National Army & Police too small, too expensive to sustain long‑term.

B. Pakistan’s Security Fears

  • Pakistan sees:

    • India + Afghanistan as a pincer threat

    • Iran + Russia as another hostile axis

  • So Pakistan keeps the Taliban as a strategic asset.

  • U.S. “pressure” won’t work because Pakistan sees compliance as suicidal.

4. The Border Problem

  • FATA (Pakistan’s tribal belt) historically governed indirectly.

  • Pakistan uses FATA as a buffer zone and a base for militants in Afghanistan & Kashmir.

  • This strategy backfires → militants destabilize Pakistan itself.

5. What the Authors Propose: A “Grand Bargain”

A. Political Track

  • Negotiate with non‑al‑Qaeda insurgents.

  • Offer:

    • Political inclusion

    • Integration of FATA into Pakistan’s political system

    • End of foreign troop raids

  • In exchange for:

    • Taliban breaking with al‑Qaeda

    • Guarantees Afghan territory won’t host global terrorists.

B. Regional Diplomacy Track

A UN‑authorized contact group including:

  • U.S., China, Russia, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, NATO

  • Purpose: address Pakistan’s security fears and stabilize Afghanistan.

C. Economic Track

  • Long‑term development aid for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and border regions.

  • Open markets for Afghan/Pakistani exports.

  • Support regional trade corridors (China–Pakistan–Afghanistan).

6. Why a Regional Solution Is Necessary

  • Afghanistan cannot be stabilized without Pakistan.

  • Pakistan cannot change behavior without security guarantees.

  • India, Iran, Russia, China all have stakes → must be included.

  • Military victory is impossible; only diplomacy + political settlement can end the war.