Democratic Transitions Lecture Notes

Democratic Transitions Notes

Overview

• The document focuses on the transitions of countries towards democracy, particularly from 1946 to 2020, analyzing various factors and theories behind these transitions.

Independent Countries, Democracies, and Dictatorships (1946-2020)

• Trend Analysis: A graph illustrates the number of independent countries categorized as democracies and dictatorships.
  • 1974: Marked the beginning of the third wave of democracy.
• A country is classified as democratic based on DD codes.

Huntington's Waves of Democracy

1. First Wave (1828-1926): Triggered by the American and French revolutions and ending after WWI.
2. Second Wave (1943-1962): Included countries like Italy, West Germany, Japan, and Austria.
3. Third Wave (1974-Present): Encompasses Greece, Spain, Portugal, parts of Latin America, and Africa.

Types of Transitions

• Bottom-Up Transition: Initiated by the populace through revolutions to overthrow authoritarian regimes.
• Top-Down Transition: When authoritarian elites implement liberal reforms leading to democracy.

Examples of Bottom-Up Transitions

• East Germany (1989): Protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of Germany.
• Other Notable Revolutions:
  • People Power Revolution, Philippines (1986)
  • June Resistance, South Korea (1987)
  • Velvet Revolution, Czechoslovakia (1989)
  • Orange Revolution, Ukraine (2006)
  • Jasmine Revolution, Tunisia (2011)

Factors Contributing to Bottom-Up Transitions

• Collective Action Theory: This theory explains the challenges in organizing collective action for public goods.
  • Public Good Characteristics:
  • Nonexcludable: No one can be excluded from using it.
  • Nonrivalrous: Use by one person does not affect others.
  • Free-Rider Problem: Individuals lack incentive to participate if they believe they won’t benefit.
  • The likelihood of successful collective action increases when benefits (B) are high and participation costs (C) are low.

Collective Action Theory in Action

• Revolutionary Thresholds: Individuals have varying thresholds for participating in protests, influenced by group dynamics.
  • Tipping Models: Suggest that as protests grow, individuals are more likely to reveal true preferences.
  • Revolutionary Cascades: Participation triggers further participation.

Preference Falsification

• People may hide their true opinions for fear of retaliation, complicating predictions about revolutionary potential.
• As tensions rise (e.g., poor economic conditions), public sentiments may shift, preparing ground for revolutions.

Top-Down Transitions

• Initiated by internal conflicts among the ruling elites driven by economic crises or social unrest.
  • Liberalization Policies: Controlled openings of political systems, which may include elections and establishing judiciaries.
• Transition Outcomes depend on the strength of opposition and the ruling elite's perceptions of that strength.
  • The document discusses play scenarios for soft-liners (elites seeking reforms) facing weak or strong opposition.

Case Study: Poland (1989)

• Liberalization policies led to significant reforms, culminating in Solidarity's electoral victory, marking a pivotal moment leading away from authoritarianism.

Conclusion

• The document provides insights into understanding democratic transitions through different theoretical frameworks, including collective action and tipping models, alongside historical examples.