FP 9 - Turkey's Role in the Black Sea and the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Dr Muhamed Ali

The Black Sea has historically been a vital strategic area in international relations, gaining increased attention post-Cold War. This maritime region is bordered by several key countries including Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Due to its geographical position, it serves not only as a crucial junction for trade but also plays a significant role in military strategies deployed by various nations involved in regional conflicts and geopolitical maneuvering.

Key Concepts in Black Sea Dynamics

Ancient Naming

The Black Sea was initially referred to as Pontos Aexeinos, which translates to 'inhospitable sea'. This moniker reflected the challenges and dangers faced by ancient navigators. However, with advancements in maritime technology and greater knowledge of the waters, the name evolved to Pontos Euxeinos, meaning 'hospitable sea'. This change signifies not only a transformation in navigation capability but also the strategic importance the region started to hold for trade and interaction between civilizations.

Strategic Role

Throughout history, the Black Sea has been sought after by many regional and world powers. Empires such as the Roman, Byzantine, Ottoman, and Russian have all recognized its immense strategic value. Control over the Black Sea has often been equated with control over key trade routes and military dominance in the adjoining regions. This historical quest for dominance has been interspersed with conflicts and alliances, shaping the political landscape we see today.

Current Political Climate

The geopolitical struggle for the Black Sea intensified post-Cold War as NATO and EU interests grew in the region, counteracting Russian influence. The interest from the West, particularly in terms of energy security and the desire to limit Russian expansion, has introduced new dynamics to long-standing historical rivalries. Countries around the Black Sea are now caught in a complex interplay of international relations where historical alliances and modern-day interests collide.

Turkish-Ukrainian Relations

Significance

In the context of the Black Sea region, Ukraine is deemed a crucial ally for Turkey due to its strategic location and resource corridors. Notably, approximately 80% of Russian gas to Europe passes through Ukraine, making Ukraine's stability and political alignment vital to Turkey and Europe alike. Moreover, Turkey's interest in deepening ties with Ukraine is underscored by economic considerations as well.

Diplomatic Relations

Turkey has established political relations with Ukraine since 1992. Over the years, both nations have entered into multiple agreements that span various sectors, including trade, defense, and energy cooperation. These diplomatic efforts exemplify Turkey's objective to reinforce its influence in the Black Sea while counterbalancing Russian dominance.

Crimean Tatar Issue

The historical connection to the Crimean Tatars plays a critical role in Turkish-Ukrainian relations. Turkey has longstanding ties to the Crimean Tatar community and has actively supported their rights and recognition. Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Turkey’s efforts to assist the Crimean Tatars have further emphasized the bilateral relations between Ankara and Kyiv, as Turkey seeks to position itself as a defender of their rights and autonomy.

Turkey's Active Neutrality in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Diplomatic Stance

Turkey’s approach during the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is characterized by what it calls 'active neutrality'. This stance aims to foster balanced relations with both Ukraine and Russia. While Turkey endorses Ukraine's territorial integrity, it has refrained from imposing harsh sanctions on Russia, choosing instead to act as a mediator.

Mediation Efforts

Turkey has undertaken significant diplomatic efforts to mediate ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Initial discussions taking place in Antalya and subsequent talks in Istanbul show Turkey's commitment to facilitating dialogue aimed at ending hostilities. These negotiations underscore Turkey’s strategic intent to position itself as a key player in resolving the conflict, reflecting a balance of interests that caters to both sides.

Military Support

Turkey has provided military support to Ukraine, particularly through the sale and deployment of drones like the Bayraktar TB2. The effectiveness of these drones in the battlefield has notably impacted Ukrainian resistance against Russian advances, signifying Turkey’s role in bolstering Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

The Grain Corridor Initiative

Mitigation of Global Food Crisis

In response to the ongoing conflict, Turkey has played a proactive role in facilitating agreements that opened a grain corridor for Ukrainian exports. This initiative is crucial for addressing global food shortages that have been exacerbated by the war. It highlights Turkey’s ability to leverage its geographical position and diplomatic relations to contribute to international stability.

International Cooperation

Agreements signed in Istanbul with Russia, Ukraine, and the UN represent a collective effort to coordinate grain exports amid military conflict. This initiative not only illustrates Turkey’s diplomatic capabilities but also emphasizes the intertwined fates of nations reliant on the Black Sea, showcasing how cooperation remains crucial even in times of conflict.

Historical Context and Current Strategies

Geopolitical Strategies

Throughout various epochs, the Black Sea has seen changing power dynamics, particularly during the Cold War when it was largely closed to non-coastal nations. This closure reflected the Soviet Union's stance and influence in the region, limiting external engagement. With the Cold War coming to an end, the region became newly accessible to Western powers.

Post-Cold War Era

The USA and EU sought to fill the power void left by the dissolution of the Soviet Union, directing efforts towards securing energy supplies and extending political influence in the Black Sea region. This strategy has been characterized by fostering partnerships with littoral states while counterbalancing Russian resurgence.

Turkey’s Role Post-Cold War

Since the end of the Cold War, Turkey has transitioned from a passive role to actively promoting stability, economic cooperation, and military preparedness in the region. It aims to be a regional leader, not just in military terms but also as a diplomatic arbiter capable of mediating tensions between significant powers, including Russia and Western nations.

Conclusion

Strategic Importance

The Black Sea remains a geopolitical hotspot filled with potential for economic engagement and critical for security dynamics, especially in the light of ongoing crises. Its waters serve as a backdrop for significant political interactions that ripple across Europe and Asia, underlining the value of collaborative efforts among nations bordering the sea.

Future of Turkish Diplomacy

Turkey’s evolving diplomacy, especially its stance of active neutrality during the Russo-Ukrainian war, positions it as a pivotal player in working towards conflict resolution. As global dynamics continue to shift, Turkey's role in facilitating international cooperation while addressing regional tensions will be crucial to the stability of the Black Sea region.