Public Opinion and Its Impact on Politics
What Is Public Opinion?
Research Example: University of Cincinnati researchers surveyed 1,200 local residents about the Monetary Control Bill, which was non-existent.
Results: 21% favored it, 25% opposed it, and the remainder were neutral or uninformed.
National Findings: 26% of people in a national survey also had opinions on the fictitious bill.
Trends in Public Opinion Surveys:
Many surveys indicate large majorities favor government program expansions while simultaneously wanting lower taxes.
Majority opinions can fluctuate drastically over time without clear reasons for change.
Credibility of Surveys: Raises the question of how much confidence we can have in surveys that claim to represent "what the American people think" about legislation.
Historical Perspective:
Early studies (1940s) depicted a troubling outlook on American democracy, showing that a small group of informed citizens existed alongside a majority that knew very little about government.
More recent studies indicate that while most citizens are poorly informed and indifferent, they utilize limited information (or cues) effectively to align with policies or candidates reflective of their interests.
Terry M. Moe's Study Findings:
Examined public opinion on publicly funded education vouchers for parents.
Despite unfamiliarity, citizens formed solid opinions when provided with information, indicating that average citizens are capable of thoughtful opinion formation.
Conclusion on Public Opinion:
It has limitations but is more stable and substantive than it may initially appear.
How Do We Measure Public Opinion?
Poll Definition: A properly conducted poll can reflect the opinions of 330 million Americans by sampling about 1,500 individuals.
Key Ingredients for Valid Polls:
Random Sampling: Ensures every voter or adult has an equal chance of being selected.
Carefully Worded Questions: To avoid bias and ambiguity.
Sampling Techniques:
Stratified or Multistage Area Sampling: Pollsters create a list of geographic units grouped by population size, selecting units randomly in proportion to their population.
Within selected areas, smaller units are chosen, eventually selecting individuals randomly.
Shifts to Telephone Polls: Due to cost and time, methodologies shifted towards phone interviews, transitioning from landlines to cell phones.
Online Polling: Some firms use offline random sampling to recruit participants for online surveys.
Sampling Error:
The difference in results from various samples is the sampling error.
Example: If 70% from one sample approves and 65% from another, the sampling error is 5%.
Non-Response Bias:
Occurs when significant demographic groups refuse to take surveys, skewing results (e.g., Trump supporters’ reluctance in polls).
Challenges in addressing these biases are ongoing.
Polling Accuracy:
When conducted properly, polls generally yield accurate reflections of public opinion.
Historical Accuracy: Since 1952, major polls have correctly predicted presidential election winners.
Note: 2016 polls predicted Clinton would win the popular vote (which she did), but she lost the electoral vote.
Exit Polls: Conducted on election day to capture voter sentiment, even though they may not always be predictive.
Constitutional Connections: Majority Opinion and Public Policy
Framers' Perspective:
The Framers saw public opinion as having a limited and indirect role in policymaking, favoring representative democracy over direct democracy.
Concerns about the capacity of the average citizen to engage thoughtfully in policy discussions:
Fear of fickleness and influence of short-term emotional responses on majority opinion.
Federalist No. 63 (James Madison): Discussed the defense against “temporary errors and delusions” of the masses and the dangers of “tyranny of their own passions.”
Majority Opinions:
Temporary majorities should not significantly impact policymaking, while persistent majorities, visible over multiple election cycles, should have their voices acknowledged.
Civil Liberties:
The Framers prioritized protecting fundamental freedoms from being subject to popular vote.
Polling Methodology:
For valid polling, a significant number of respondents are needed to limit the margin of error, which defines the acceptable accuracy level for polls.
Example: Approximately 1,100 interviews are needed for a ±3% margin of error.
Expense of Poll Conducting: Due to challenges, firms increasingly conduct polls online but recognize the necessity of proper sampling methods to maintain quality.
Misleading Results from Non-Random Sampling:
“Opt-in” polls can lead to skewed results since volunteers do not represent the general population.
How Do We Ask Questions?
Importance of Question Design: Two critical steps for effective polling include:
Proper sample selection.
Clear and straightforward question formulation.
Wording Effects on Poll Results:
Example: In a study, people’s support differed significantly between "government welfare programs" and "government aid to the poor."
Findings: Respondents view aid to the poor positively (including various supportive programs) but have mixed feelings about welfare, indicating the need for careful language.
Complexity of Public Opinion:
Issues like abortion reveal nuanced public sentiment, as one-third of respondents in studies endorsed both pro-choice and pro-life views.
Ordering of Questions:
The sequence of questions can alter responses (e.g., LGBTQ+ rights polling affected by the order of questions on religious freedom versus discrimination).
Scrutiny of Poll Results:
Public opinion data can yield valuable insights but must be interpreted with care, considering question design and survey methodology.
Verify poll credibility by comparing multiple sources with sound methodologies for validated results.
7.2
What Drives Opinion?
To understand public opinion and its impact on government policy, we must explore the reasons behind varying attitudes and beliefs among individuals. While a comprehensive answer is complex and potentially unknowable, political scientists identify three primary factors that shape these attitudes:
Political Socialization and Family
Demographic Factors
Partisanship and Ideology
While other influences exist, such as the mass media (discussed in Chapter 12), these three are particularly crucial.
Political Socialization and the Family
Historical findings indicate that political views are significantly acquired from family environments.
A vast majority of high school students can identify their parents' party affiliations.
Only a small fraction of children support a party different from their parents.
Political Socialization is the process where children form their political views, primarily influenced by their parents, akin to how they might adopt a religion or outlook on life.
Mechanisms of influence include:
Genetic transmission of political attitudes:
Evidence suggests some political traits may be inherited, similar to physical traits like height or eye color. This viewpoint is debated and still requires further research to be definitively proven.
Learning from parental cues:
Discussions on political matters at home (e.g., dinner table discussions or media consumption together) serve as cues that guide children's political beliefs.
Interactions are more effective in families that frequently engage in political discussions.
Although parents significantly shape political outlooks, external political environments also play a vital role.
The impressionable years hypothesis indicates that young people's political attitudes are profoundly influenced by formative experiences from their mid-teens through mid-20s, during high school and college.
Historical context shows significant differences in memories and perceptions of political events between generations:
For instance, those who reached maturity during the 1960s (Civil Rights movement, Vietnam War protests) exhibit differing political perceptions compared to those who came of age after World War II.
Current high school and college students, influenced by events like the financial crisis of 2008, see the political landscape distinctively compared to their parents.
Contemporary youth, especially Generation Z (born 1997 or later), are generally more racially and ethnically diverse and display liberal tendencies more than previous generations.
They often support increased social safety nets and gun control measures.
On the issue of Social Security and Medicare, however, support across age groups tends to be uniform.
Demographic Factors
Demographics, such as race, ethnicity, gender, age, class, income, education, and religion, are pivotal in shaping political attitudes. Key demographic factors discussed include:
The Gender Gap
The gender gap refers to the difference in political opinions between men and women.
Women typically show a stronger inclination towards Democratic identification and voting compared to men.
Important issues influencing this gap include:
Social welfare and foreign policy attitudes—women favor more liberal positions in these areas.
Contrary to earlier assumptions, abortion is not a primary driver of the gender gap, as historical differences in views on abortion have been modest.
Race and Ethnicity
Political affiliations show significant divergence between Black and White Americans following the Civil Rights movement, with Black Americans overwhelmingly supporting the Democratic Party.
Key differences in opinion include:
Black Americans are more likely to acknowledge the ongoing influence of slavery and racism, advocating for reparations and policies to address these legacies.
Differing perceptions exist regarding police and the criminal justice system, where Black Americans often see biases stemming from their experiences.
The emergence of movements such as Black Lives Matter highlights heightened awareness of these issues, spurred by high-profile incidents involving police violence.
Public opinion has shifted on race issues, indicating dynamic changes in attitudes over time.
Latino Public Opinion:
Latinos represent a diverse group within America, making it illicit to generalize their views as singular.
Significant generational differences exist; second and third-generation Latinos tend to align more closely with mainstream American views compared to first-generation immigrants.
Latinos often express unique viewpoints on immigration and bilingual education, but share similarities on broader policy issues with other demographic groups.
Religion
The interplay between religion and politics shows a nuanced connection across different demographics:
Americans have varied religious backgrounds that implicate different political beliefs.
Conservatives are generally more religious compared to moderates and liberals.
There is often a divergence among religious groups regarding social issues, but those highly religious also hold liberal positions on some topics, such as environmental issues and the death penalty.
Case Studies:
Pope Francis and various evangelical leaders advocate for climate action, reflecting the evolving nature of religious influence on public opinion.
Partisanship and Ideology
Partisanship, or the alignment and identification with a political party, significantly influences citizen beliefs and attitudes.
Political parties serve as conduits for expressing opinions on various issues and shape individuals' beliefs through the actions and policies of elected officials.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, partisan divides became evident, with differing levels of concern and behavioral changes observed starkly between Democrats and Republicans.
Party Sorting reflects an alignment in citizens’ beliefs with party ideologies. While elites may have polarized views, ordinary voters are often moderate and not as ideologically extreme, despite sorting along party lines.
Political Ideology
Political ideology encompasses a consistent belief system regarding governance and policy.
Methods to measure political ideology include:
Symbolic Ideology: Self-identification of political orientation.
Behavioral Consistency: Correlations of individuals' views over time.
Overall, most Americans lack deep ideological clarity, with polarizations being more evident among politically active elites.
Pew Research Center findings indicate nine different groups based on political ideology, emphasizing varied degrees of ideological consistency among the general public.
Conclusion: While the politically active and engaged reveal more pronounced ideological divisions, the broader American population tends to maintain moderate, centrist views, complicating assumptions about polarization.
7.3
Political Information and Public Opinion
Introduction to Political Knowledge
Evidence shows that Americans possess limited knowledge about politics.
Many studies indicate Americans struggle with basic civics facts, such as:
The structure of government (i.e., three branches of government).
Specific governance functions (e.g., which branch can declare war).
Difficulty with current events is prevalent; for example:
Identifying the Speaker of the House.
Knowing which party controls the Senate.
Historical Context of Political Knowledge
Research into American political awareness has been ongoing since modern survey research began.
Findings reveal that the general populace is largely uninformed about American political life.
Scholars and political reformers express concern regarding this knowledge deficit:
A lack of understanding poses challenges for citizens attempting to guide politicians.
Insufficient knowledge can hinder the selection of competent representatives during elections.
Connection to the historical perspectives of the Founding Fathers:
The Founders had apprehensions about excessive popular control in governance.
They established a political system that limited direct public influence over governmental decisions.
Notably, prior to the 20th century, only the House of Representatives was directly elected by the populace.
The Debate on Information Deficit and Democracy
Main Question: Does the lack of political knowledge negatively affect American democracy?
Pro-Information Deficit Viewpoint:
Some scholars argue that despite being ill-informed, citizens can still make reasonable decisions.
Example point: Understanding who the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is may not impact someone's decision when voting for president or Congress.
Heuristics as Decision-Making Aids:
Citizens use information shortcuts or heuristics to navigate complex political decisions.
A notable instance occurred in the late 1980s regarding California ballot propositions:
Many voters lacked detailed information on propositions about auto insurance rates but made decisions aligned with their interests based on advertising.
Voters utilized endorsements from significant entities (like the insurance industry) to guide their voting choices.
An analysis of presidential election voters indicated that many cast votes that mirrored what would be chosen if they were fully informed of candidates' positions on issues.
Implications of Heuristics on Opinion Formation
Heuristics are not exclusively beneficial; they can lead voters to erroneous conclusions.
Example of heuristics misguiding voters:
Voters might expect politicians from working-class backgrounds to favor working-class interests, which is not always true.
Observations about voter beliefs and political attitudes:
Lack of information may skew public support; for instance, some of the support for the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts was attributed to voters not being fully informed.
Changing preferences based on new information:
Additional knowledge about policies can shift citizens’ opinions significantly, even among those who are politically informed.
Heuristics are only a partial replacement for comprehensive political information.
Conclusion on Information Shortcomings in Politics
While heuristics and shortcuts play a role in decision-making, shortcomings in political knowledge can have negative repercussions on the political process.
7.4
Public Opinion and Public Policy
Introduction to Public Opinion in Democracy
Focus of chapter: The origins and measurement of public opinion.
Primary question: Does public opinion shape public policy?
Conclusion: Yes, public opinion does influence public policy in most cases.
Evidence on Public Opinion and Policy Change
An extensive study analyzed laws with corresponding public opinion polls over decades.
Findings: When public opinion changed, policy changes typically followed.
Congruence: Changes in public opinion often align with shifts in policy direction:
More liberal opinion leads to more liberal policy.
More conservative opinion leads to more conservative policy.
Important factors:
Salient policies (issues of significant public interest) exhibit stronger congruence with public opinion.
Significant shifts in public sentiment particularly correlate with policy changes.
Implications for Democratic Theory
This relationship supports the idea that government decisions indeed reflect the will of the people.
Limitations of Public Opinion Influence on Policy
Not all policies reflect the majority’s will; sometimes minority interests prevail.
Key factors to consider:
The role of political parties.
Influence of interest groups.
Media impact.
Political institutions.
The Role of Political Power and Engagement
Case Study: Gun Control
Public Surveys: Majority of Americans support gun control, yet opponents are more politically motivated.
Engagement metrics: Gun control opponents:
Prioritize gun rights more heavily than supporters prioritize gun control.
More likely to act politically (e.g., selecting candidates, donating to campaigns).
National Rifle Association (NRA) study:
Members are more politically active than the general public, including gun control supporters.
Politicians responsive to the organized minority due to their active participation.
Recent shifts in politics may occur as gun control advocates become more vocal.
Example legislation: Safer Communities Act (2022).
Economic Elite Influence on Policy
Numerous studies indicate a disproportionate responsiveness of government policy to the preferences of economic elites.
Characteristics of the economic elite:
Higher likelihood of political participation compared to average citizens.
Results in their preferences (on issues like regulation and taxes) being more heavily prioritized by politicians.
Real-world implications: This disparity creates inequalities in representation and responsiveness between economic classes.
Summary of Participation in Politics
The effectiveness of public opinion in shaping policy is heavily influenced by who participates in the political process.
Recognizing active political participants is crucial for understanding policymaking dynamics.
Detailed Policy Discussion: Support for Comprehensive Immigration Reform
Legislative Context
Title: Briefing on the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill.
Audience: Senator Matthew Joseph.
Key issues: Voters’ concerns about law and order, economic opportunities, and citizenship pathways for undocumented residents.
Historical background: Previous proposals have failed to enact meaningful reforms, necessitating the introduction of new legislation.
Current Public Sentiment on Immigration
Immigration issue complexity:
Division along party lines regarding border security measures.
Common ground exists among both parties on the need for enhanced border security and citizenship pathways for long-standing undocumented immigrants.
Proposed Bill Highlights
The legislation under consideration aims at:
Comprehensive border security enhancements.
Providing legal residency pathways for approximately 12 million undocumented individuals in the country.
Arguments For the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill
Public Support: Significant voter base favors citizenship pathways for long-term undocumented residents.
Economic Contribution: Undocumented immigrants play crucial roles in the economy by working, paying taxes, and purchasing goods and services.
Realistic Solutions: Creating pathways for citizenship, subject to certain conditions, recognizes the deep connections many undocumented residents have in the U.S.
Arguments Against the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill
Party Opposition: Leadership within the senator's party prioritizes stricter border security above comprehensive reform.
Job Concerns: Claims exist that undocumented immigrants displace native-born workers and impose greater costs on public services (such as education and healthcare).
Alternative Focus: Suggestions to regulate businesses employing undocumented individuals rather than focusing on the undocumented status of workers themselves.
Conclusion / Decision-Making Consideration
The situation presents complexities requiring careful analysis of both public sentiment and political imperatives. Ultimately, the decision must balance party alignment with constituents’ interests and the practical implications of immigration policy reforms.