Chapter 6 – The Politics of Public Opinion
Measuring Political Opinion
- Politics balances scarce resources, liberties, and rights; disagreements over “how” and “by whom” form the basis of political opinion.
- Political scientists track these differences through systematic collection and analysis of public-opinion data.
- Key visual example: Mitt Romney’s 2012 “Super Tuesday” victory speech—illustrates how campaign polls vs. non-campaign polls can yield conflicting projections.
Public Opinion
- Definition: the aggregate of popular views about a person, event, idea, or policy.
- An individual’s view ≠ the whole public; public opinion is a composite.
- Can fluctuate with time, events, and framing.
- Differs dramatically along demographic or ideological lines (see later figures on same-sex marriage, immigration).
Political Socialization
- Process by which individuals learn political norms, values, and practices.
- Begins in early childhood; even before children recognize “government,” they absorb political cues.
- Agents of socialization:
- Family, friends, religious leaders, teachers, co-workers, media, political elites, community organizations.
- Intergenerational transmission: data from the 1992 American National Election Study show strong parent–child resemblance in partisan orientation.
- E.g., when both parents are strong Democrats, 31\% of children become strong Democrats; with mixed household partisanship, the distribution spreads across categories.
Political Ideology
- Attitudes & beliefs that shape opinions on political theory and policy.
- Not fixed; moderate change possible via age, education, and new experiences—fundamental change typically needs dramatic events.
- Spectrum (Left → Right): Communism, Socialism, Liberalism, Center, Conservatism, Fascism.
- Communism: state ownership, enforced equality.
- Socialism: state ensures basic services & equality; progressive taxation.
- Classical liberalism: maximal individual liberty, minimal government.
- Modern liberalism: individual liberties + limited economic intervention.
- Classical conservatism: deference to monarchy/church; rule of law.
- Modern conservatism: individual liberties, small government, laissez-faire economy.
- Fascism: total governmental/leader control over all societal aspects.
- Visual cue: Left prioritizes equality; Right prioritizes control.
Political Polarization
- Occurs when ideology becomes more rigidly aligned with party identity; willingness to compromise dwindles.
- Data: Democrat vs. Republican gap on 48 value questions grew from 10\% (1987) → 18\% (c. 2012).
- Media & overt/covert bias contribute (see Media section).
- Overt content: openly partisan.
- Covert content: disguised as objective; subtly shapes opinion.
- Media framing of Baltimore 2015 events: “uprising” vs. “riots” exemplifies narrative influence.
“Guns-vs-Butter” Debate (Resource Allocation)
- Finite national budget forces trade-offs: more defense \Rightarrow less social spending (and vice-versa).
- Polarization hardens camps, reducing compromise potential.
Polling: Measuring Public Opinion Scientifically
- Polling = asking structured questions, recording answers, analyzing data.
- Historic error: 1948 “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline—illustrates dangers of methodological flaws.
Polling Methodology (Seven Steps)
- Identify topic.
- Identify population & sample.
- Draft / validate uniform questions.
- Contact sample respondents.
- Secure required usable responses.
- Analyze data.
- Report findings.
- Informal, non-scientific efforts = straw polls.
Samples
- Population: complete group desired.
- Sample: subset actually surveyed.
- Random sample: everyone has equal chance.
- Representative sample: demographics mirror population.
- Bigger sample lowers error but with diminishing returns after representativeness achieved.
- Demographic screener questions (ZIP, education, etc.) help construct representation.
Question Construction
- Principles: clarity, simplicity, neutrality.
- Leading questions shape answers; deliberate use becomes push polls—campaign tools to influence rather than measure.
Margin of Error (MoE)
- Numeric expression of sampling uncertainty.
- Example: If MoE = \pm 5\%, Candidate A at 52\% vs. B at 48\% is “too close to call” because the 4\% gap < MoE.
- Lower MoE ⇒ higher predictive validity.
Technology in Polling
- Modes: in-person, landline, cellphone, mail, internet, social media.
- Each medium skews toward certain demographics, complicating representativeness.
- Identity verification easiest with in-person; toughest online; bots & repeat participation plague digital polls.
Polling Problems
- Knowledge deficits among respondents.
- Social desirability bias (pressure to conform).
- Sampling errors (coverage, non-response).
- Mismatched technology (e.g., online poll for low-internet group).
- Respondent manipulation.
- Data coding/analysis mistakes.
- High MoE.
Special Issue: The Cellphone Problem
- Mobile numbers not tied to geography; area codes unreliable.
- Under-35 cohort: cellphone-only, call-screening, preference for text ⇒ hard to reach.
- Legal barriers: Do-Not-Call lists, blocking apps.
Determinants of Personal Political Opinion
- Attitudes & beliefs.
- Political socialization agents.
- Identity markers (race, gender, religion, ethnicity).
- Life experiences (economic hardship, war, crisis).
- Geography (urban vs. rural, region).
- Education & resources (income, class).
- Political elites & media narratives.
- Favorability polls can boost or depress voter turnout.
- Horse-race coverage emphasizes competition over policy, can distort voter perception.
- Bandwagon effect: media amplify candidates leading in polls, increasing their perceived inevitability.
- Long-term shifts: same-sex marriage acceptance, immigration attitudes have evolved markedly since early 2000s.
Approval of U.S. Political Institutions
- Diffuse support: general belief in legitimacy of the system.
- President: honeymoon high → gradual decline; shocks (wars, crises) can spike approval temporarily.
- Congress: fluctuates 20\%–50\%; post-9/11 peak >80\%.
- Supreme Court: historically highest approval; controversial rulings (esp. social issues) lower support.
Budget-Cut Preferences & NIMBYism
- When asked “What should be cut?”, public rarely selects programs directly benefiting them (e.g., Social Security, Medicare).
- Illustrates self-interest & status-quo bias in fiscal opinion.
Ethical & Practical Implications
- Accurate polling vital for democratic accountability; flawed polls can mislead voters, campaigns, policymakers.
- Media responsibility: differentiate reporting from advocacy; disclose MoE & methodology.
- Policymakers must balance measured opinion with minority rights and constitutional principles—“tyranny of the majority” risk.
- Romney 2012 poll discrepancy.
- Intergenerational partisanship chart (Figure 6.4).
- Baltimore protest framing (Figure 6.5).
- Dewey-Truman newspaper (Figure 6.8) signifies polling pitfalls.
- Live-interviewer vs. computer polling on CA Proposition 19 (Figure 6.11) demonstrates mode effects.
- Obama approval trend (Figure 6.14) & Congressional ratings (Figure 6.15).
- 2016 GOP primary horse-race coverage centered on Trump (Figure 6.16).
- Gun-control speech post-Umpqua shooting (Figure 6.17) exemplifies policy response to opinion shifts.
- Margin of Error (approx.): MoE = z\times \sqrt{\dfrac{p(1-p)}{n}} where z = confidence-level z-score, p = proportion, n = sample size.
- Confidence interval: \hat{p} \pm MoE.
- Law of Large Numbers: as n \to \infty, sample mean → population mean; beyond certain n, benefit plateaus.
Connections to Foundational Principles
- Federalist Papers stress importance of informed citizenry; polling is modern mechanism to gauge this information environment.
- First Amendment protections enable overt & covert media content; yet same amendment subjects media to scrutiny over bias.
- Madisonian fear of factions relates to polarization—excessive factionalism impedes compromise (Federalist No. 10).
Real-World Relevance
- Campaign strategy: resource allocation driven by poll data; misreads can waste millions (e.g., “blue-wall” miscalculation in 2016).
- Governance: presidents monitor approval before executive actions; Congress tracks district polling for reelection calculus.
- Policy advocacy: interest groups commission polls to craft messages (e.g., framing climate change as “clean-energy jobs”).
Study/Review Prompts
- Be able to define & differentiate random vs. representative sample.
- Explain why push polls are unethical and how to spot them.
- Interpret a confidence interval given \hat{p} and MoE.
- Describe two ways media contribute to polarization.
- Provide examples where public opinion shifted dramatically and identify catalysts.
- Discuss challenges of reaching young voters via phone surveys.
