Chapter 6 – The Politics of Public Opinion

Measuring Political Opinion

• Politics balances scarce resources, liberties, and rights; disagreements over “how” and “by whom” form the basis of political opinion.
• Political scientists track these differences through systematic collection and analysis of public-opinion data.
• Key visual example: Mitt Romney’s 2012 “Super Tuesday” victory speech—illustrates how campaign polls vs. non-campaign polls can yield conflicting projections.

Public Opinion

• Definition: the aggregate of popular views about a person, event, idea, or policy.
  • An individual’s view ≠ the whole public; public opinion is a composite.
• Can fluctuate with time, events, and framing.
• Differs dramatically along demographic or ideological lines (see later figures on same-sex marriage, immigration).

Political Socialization

• Process by which individuals learn political norms, values, and practices.
  • Begins in early childhood; even before children recognize “government,” they absorb political cues.
• Agents of socialization:
  • Family, friends, religious leaders, teachers, co-workers, media, political elites, community organizations.
• Intergenerational transmission: data from the 1992 American National Election Study show strong parent–child resemblance in partisan orientation.
  • E.g., when both parents are strong Democrats, 31\% of children become strong Democrats; with mixed household partisanship, the distribution spreads across categories.

Political Ideology

• Attitudes & beliefs that shape opinions on political theory and policy.
• Not fixed; moderate change possible via age, education, and new experiences—fundamental change typically needs dramatic events.
• Spectrum (Left → Right): Communism, Socialism, Liberalism, Center, Conservatism, Fascism.
  • Communism: state ownership, enforced equality.
  • Socialism: state ensures basic services & equality; progressive taxation.
  • Classical liberalism: maximal individual liberty, minimal government.
  • Modern liberalism: individual liberties + limited economic intervention.
  • Classical conservatism: deference to monarchy/church; rule of law.
  • Modern conservatism: individual liberties, small government, laissez-faire economy.
  • Fascism: total governmental/leader control over all societal aspects.
• Visual cue: Left prioritizes equality; Right prioritizes control.

Political Polarization

• Occurs when ideology becomes more rigidly aligned with party identity; willingness to compromise dwindles.
• Data: Democrat vs. Republican gap on 48 value questions grew from 10\% (1987) → 18\% (c. 2012).
• Media & overt/covert bias contribute (see Media section).

Media Bias and Polarization

• Overt content: openly partisan.
• Covert content: disguised as objective; subtly shapes opinion.
• Media framing of Baltimore 2015 events: “uprising” vs. “riots” exemplifies narrative influence.

“Guns-vs-Butter” Debate (Resource Allocation)

• Finite national budget forces trade-offs: more defense \Rightarrow less social spending (and vice-versa).
• Polarization hardens camps, reducing compromise potential.

Polling: Measuring Public Opinion Scientifically

• Polling = asking structured questions, recording answers, analyzing data.
• Historic error: 1948 “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline—illustrates dangers of methodological flaws.

Polling Methodology (Seven Steps)

1. Identify topic.
2. Identify population & sample.
3. Draft / validate uniform questions.
4. Contact sample respondents.
5. Secure required usable responses.
6. Analyze data.
7. Report findings.

• Informal, non-scientific efforts = straw polls.

Samples

• Population: complete group desired.
• Sample: subset actually surveyed.
  • Random sample: everyone has equal chance.
  • Representative sample: demographics mirror population.
• Bigger sample lowers error but with diminishing returns after representativeness achieved.
• Demographic screener questions (ZIP, education, etc.) help construct representation.

Question Construction

• Principles: clarity, simplicity, neutrality.
• Leading questions shape answers; deliberate use becomes push polls—campaign tools to influence rather than measure.

Margin of Error (MoE)

• Numeric expression of sampling uncertainty.
• Example: If MoE = \pm 5\%, Candidate A at 52\% vs. B at 48\% is “too close to call” because the 4\% gap < MoE.
• Lower MoE ⇒ higher predictive validity.

Technology in Polling

• Modes: in-person, landline, cellphone, mail, internet, social media.
• Each medium skews toward certain demographics, complicating representativeness.
• Identity verification easiest with in-person; toughest online; bots & repeat participation plague digital polls.

Polling Problems

• Knowledge deficits among respondents.
• Social desirability bias (pressure to conform).
• Sampling errors (coverage, non-response).
• Mismatched technology (e.g., online poll for low-internet group).
• Respondent manipulation.
• Data coding/analysis mistakes.
• High MoE.

Special Issue: The Cellphone Problem

• Mobile numbers not tied to geography; area codes unreliable.
• Under-35 cohort: cellphone-only, call-screening, preference for text ⇒ hard to reach.
• Legal barriers: Do-Not-Call lists, blocking apps.

Determinants of Personal Political Opinion

• Attitudes & beliefs.
• Political socialization agents.
• Identity markers (race, gender, religion, ethnicity).
• Life experiences (economic hardship, war, crisis).
• Geography (urban vs. rural, region).
• Education & resources (income, class).
• Political elites & media narratives.

Effects of Public Opinion on Politics & Media

• Favorability polls can boost or depress voter turnout.
• Horse-race coverage emphasizes competition over policy, can distort voter perception.
• Bandwagon effect: media amplify candidates leading in polls, increasing their perceived inevitability.
• Long-term shifts: same-sex marriage acceptance, immigration attitudes have evolved markedly since early 2000s.

Approval of U.S. Political Institutions

• Diffuse support: general belief in legitimacy of the system.
• President: honeymoon high → gradual decline; shocks (wars, crises) can spike approval temporarily.
• Congress: fluctuates 20\%–50\%; post-9/11 peak >80\%.
• Supreme Court: historically highest approval; controversial rulings (esp. social issues) lower support.

Budget-Cut Preferences & NIMBYism

• When asked “What should be cut?”, public rarely selects programs directly benefiting them (e.g., Social Security, Medicare).
• Illustrates self-interest & status-quo bias in fiscal opinion.

Ethical & Practical Implications

• Accurate polling vital for democratic accountability; flawed polls can mislead voters, campaigns, policymakers.
• Media responsibility: differentiate reporting from advocacy; disclose MoE & methodology.
• Policymakers must balance measured opinion with minority rights and constitutional principles—“tyranny of the majority” risk.

Illustrative Figures & Examples Recap

• Romney 2012 poll discrepancy.
• Intergenerational partisanship chart (Figure 6.4).
• Baltimore protest framing (Figure 6.5).
• Dewey-Truman newspaper (Figure 6.8) signifies polling pitfalls.
• Live-interviewer vs. computer polling on CA Proposition 19 (Figure 6.11) demonstrates mode effects.
• Obama approval trend (Figure 6.14) & Congressional ratings (Figure 6.15).
• 2016 GOP primary horse-race coverage centered on Trump (Figure 6.16).
• Gun-control speech post-Umpqua shooting (Figure 6.17) exemplifies policy response to opinion shifts.

Key Formulas & Statistical Notes

• Margin of Error (approx.): MoE = z\times \sqrt{\dfrac{p(1-p)}{n}} where z = confidence-level z-score, p = proportion, n = sample size.
• Confidence interval: \hat{p} \pm MoE.
• Law of Large Numbers: as n \to \infty, sample mean → population mean; beyond certain n, benefit plateaus.

Connections to Foundational Principles

• Federalist Papers stress importance of informed citizenry; polling is modern mechanism to gauge this information environment.
• First Amendment protections enable overt & covert media content; yet same amendment subjects media to scrutiny over bias.
• Madisonian fear of factions relates to polarization—excessive factionalism impedes compromise (Federalist No. 10).

Real-World Relevance

• Campaign strategy: resource allocation driven by poll data; misreads can waste millions (e.g., “blue-wall” miscalculation in 2016).
• Governance: presidents monitor approval before executive actions; Congress tracks district polling for reelection calculus.
• Policy advocacy: interest groups commission polls to craft messages (e.g., framing climate change as “clean-energy jobs”).

Study/Review Prompts

• Be able to define & differentiate random vs. representative sample.
• Explain why push polls are unethical and how to spot them.
• Interpret a confidence interval given \hat{p} and MoE.
• Describe two ways media contribute to polarization.
• Provide examples where public opinion shifted dramatically and identify catalysts.
• Discuss challenges of reaching young voters via phone surveys.