8.10 Cognitive Biases and Confirmation Bias

Cognitive Biases in Ideological Beliefs

This lesson discusses cognitive biases that contribute to ideological bubbles and close-mindedness. Two primary biases are explored: belief perseverance and confirmation bias.

Belief Perseverance

  • Definition:
    Belief perseverance is the tendency to maintain one’s beliefs even when confronted with contradictory evidence. This psychological phenomenon highlights how resistant individuals can be to altering their pre-existing convictions.

  • Characteristics:

    • Individuals show stubbornness in beliefs, ignoring or discounting evidence that challenges them.

    • People are resistant to change, staying stuck in their ways.

  • Experimental Example:

    • Participants are presented with scenarios involving political beliefs, specifically related to the Democratic and Republican parties in America.

    • They are shown videos of individuals (either Democrats or Republicans) committing petty political crimes, such as stealing political lawn signs.

    • Participants are then asked to assess the severity of these actions on a scale of 'not at all' to 'very'.

    • Findings:

    • Democrats perceive the severity of a Democrat stealing a Republican's sign to be less than that of a Republican stealing a Democrat's sign.

    • Republicans exhibit the opposite tendency.

    • Independents judge the severity of similar actions consistently across party lines, indicating less bias.

  • Conclusion from Example:

    • These judgments allow individuals to preserve favorable views of their political party or politicians, contributing to a narrow worldview.

Confirmation Bias

  • Definition:
    Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out information that confirms one's existing beliefs or hypotheses, while disregarding evidence that could disconfirm them.

  • Differentiation from Belief Perseverance:

    • Belief perseverance involves resistance to changing views when confronted with evidence.

    • Confirmation bias involves active seeking of affirming information.

  • Illustration of Confirmation Bias:

    • A cartoon example demonstrates an individual claiming to research both sides of a debate but ultimately only searching for information that supports their preconceptions.

  • Role of Social Media:

    • Platforms like Facebook exacerbate confirmation bias by using algorithms that show users content that aligns with their beliefs.

    • This creates an echo chamber effect, reducing exposure to diverse perspectives.

  • Trust in Sources:

    • Information shared by trusted family and friends often goes uncriticized, leading to uncritical acceptance of potentially biased content.

Experimental Evidence: The Four Card Task

  • Description of the Task:
    Participants are presented with a scenario involving the rule: "If a card has a vowel on one side, then it must have an even number on the other side."

  • Cards Given:
    Participants receive cards that show either letters or numbers, for example: A, B, 2, and 7.

  • Challenge:
    Determine which cards must be turned over to test the validity of the rule.

  • Common Responses:

    • 33% of participants flip only the A card.

    • 46% flip both the A and the 6 card.

    • 4% correctly flip the A and the 7 card to adequately test the rule directly.

  • Significance of Correct Response:

    • Flipping the 7 card can disprove the rule if it reveals an odd number and supports it if it shows a vowel, demonstrating the importance of seeking disconfirmatory evidence.

Broader Implications of Cognitive Bias

  • Conspiracy Theories:

    • Confirmation bias and belief perseverance can also explain the adherence to conspiracy theories and other irrational beliefs, such as flat Earth theories.

    • Individuals ignore contradicting evidence in favor of information affirming their beliefs.

  • Impacts on Science:

    • File Drawer Problem:

    • Researchers may publish only studies that support their hypotheses, placing conflicting results in a 'file drawer' and disregarding them.

    • This leads to a skewed representation of available evidence.

  • Publication Bias:

    • Academic journals tend to favor studies that present exciting confirmatory findings, making it harder for studies without significant effects to be published.

  • Consequences:

    • This biased publication policy can complicate the pursuit of genuine scientific truth and understanding.

Conclusion

The cognitive biases of belief perseverance and confirmation bias underscore the challenges of maintaining an open mind and engaging with diverse perspectives. These phenomena emphasize the importance of critically evaluating information sources and embracing a broader worldview to counteract ideological bubbles.