Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the number of births per 1,000
Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the number of deaths per 1,000
Rate of Natural Increase (RIN) is CBR-CDR
STAGE 1: LOW GROWTH
Extremely high crude birth rates: Cultural preferences, lack of contraceptives
Extremely high crude death rates: Lack of sanitation/medicine, animal attacks, war, famine
Very low RNI
STAGE 2: HIGH GROWTH
Extremely high CBR: Industrial Revolution leads to food security
Falling CDR: Increased sanitation/medicine, increased life expectancy, falling IMR
Very High RIN
STAGE 3: MODERATE GROWTH
Falling CBR: Women enter workforce, women seek education opportunities, improved economics lessens the need for more children, as does rising urbanization
Falling CDR: Further advances in medicine, increased life expectancy, still falling IMR
Moderate RIN
STAGE 4: LOW GROWTH
Very low CBR: Women delay marriage, women seek education opportunities, increased contraceptive use, and family planning
Low CDR: Higher incomes lead to better health outcomes
No RIN: Zero population growth or falling
STAGE 5: NEGATIVE GROWTH
Very low CBR: Couples choosing not to have kids, birthrates are falling below death rates
Rising CDR: Deaths rising due to increased urbanization, antibiotic-resistant bacteria
Negative Population Growth
Epidemiological Transition Model (ETM) describes changes in population based mortality
STAGE 1: PESTILENCE AND FAMINE
Infectious and parasitic diseases, crop failure, animal attacks
STAGE 2: RECEDING PANDEMICS
Improved sanitation, better nutrition/food security, medicine
Pandemics are still a slight issue
Increased Life Expectancy
STAGE 3: DEGENERATIVE DISEASES
Fewer infectious disease deaths
Rise in death from aging: cancer, strokes, hearth disease
Yet longer life expectancy and lower death rates
Population growth
STAGE 4: DELAYED DEGENERATIVE AND LIFESTYLE DISEASES
Medical advances extended life expectancy
Better diets, reduced use of tobacco
Life expectancy is at its highest
One problem: Junk food and sedentary lifestyles
STAGE 5: REEMERGENCE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
2.5 IMPORTANT VOCABULARY
Demographic Transition Model (DTM)- Shows five typical stages of population change that countries experience as they modernize
Stage 1 DTM (Characteristics)- High Stationary; low population growth rate due to a high birth rate and a high death rate, poor sanitation, prone to diseases, very young population structure, agriculture and hunter gathering economies (ex: scattered isolated groups
Stage 1 Population Pyramid (Shrub)- Populations that are not growing, rectangular shape that displays somewhat equal percentages across age cohorts. High death and birth rates
Stage 2 DTM (Characteristics)- Early Expanding; Rapid decrease in a country’s death rate (nutrition, sanitation and medicine improve) while the birth rate remains high but fluctuating (reflects desires for big families), very young population, rural agricultural, less developed society (ex: Mali and South Sudan)
Stage 2 Population Pyramid (Tree)- People are reproducing at a higher rate than they die, low life expectancy and high birth rates. Wide base and narrow top
Stage 3 DTM (Characteristics)- Late Expanding; Total population is increasing rapidly, death rates will remain low and steady, birth rates will fall quickly (decrease in the need for child labor), young; rising life expectancy, people go from farms to cities, emerging/industrializing economies (ex: Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia)
Stage 3 Population Pyramid (House)- Wide bottom (but not as wide as stage 2), narrow top. Death rates are low and birth rates decrease
Demographic Momentum- As countries transition from early Stage 3 into Stage 4, population will continue to grow for at least one generation
Stage 4 DTM (Characteristics)- Low Stationary; Total population is high and growing slowly, balanced low birth rate death rate which means very low growth, balanced population with more aging, urbanized service economy, highly developed, rising gender equity (ex: United States, China)
Stage 4 Population Pyramid (Box)- When the share of population remains constant in different age groups over the period of time. It represents situation of low fertility, low mortality and high life expectancy. Indicates slow population growth or stable population
Stage 5 DTM (Characteristics)- Declining; Total population is high but starting to decline due to the birth rate falling below the death rate. Very old population structure, urbanized service economy, highly developed (Ex: Japan, Germany)
Stage 5 Population Pyramid (Cup)- Top-heavy population pyramid with higher proportions in older age groups, declining population
Epidemiological Transition Model (ETM)- An extension of the demographic transition model that explains the changing death rates and more common causes of death within societies
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