2.5 The Demographic Transition Model Notes

• }}Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the number of births per 1,000}}
• }}Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the number of deaths per 1,000}}
• }}Rate of Natural Increase (RIN) is CBR-CDR}}

STAGE 1: LOW GROWTH

• Extremely high crude birth rates: Cultural preferences, lack of contraceptives
• Extremely high crude death rates: Lack of sanitation/medicine, animal attacks, war, famine
• Very low RNI

STAGE 2: HIGH GROWTH

• Extremely high CBR: Industrial Revolution leads to food security
• Falling CDR: Increased sanitation/medicine, increased life expectancy, falling IMR
• Very High RIN

STAGE 3: MODERATE GROWTH

• Falling CBR: Women enter workforce, women seek education opportunities, improved economics lessens the need for more children, as does rising urbanization
• Falling CDR: Further advances in medicine, increased life expectancy, still falling IMR
• Moderate RIN

STAGE 4: LOW GROWTH

• Very low CBR: Women delay marriage, women seek education opportunities, increased contraceptive use, and family planning
• Low CDR: Higher incomes lead to better health outcomes
• No RIN: Zero population growth or falling

STAGE 5: NEGATIVE GROWTH

• Very low CBR: Couples choosing not to have kids, birthrates are falling below death rates
• Rising CDR: Deaths rising due to increased urbanization, antibiotic-resistant bacteria
• Negative Population Growth

\
}}Epidemiological Transition Model (ETM) describes changes in population based mortality}}

STAGE 1: PESTILENCE AND FAMINE

Infectious and parasitic diseases, crop failure, animal attacks

• Endemic: Stays local
• Epidemic: Spreads through region
• Pandemic: Spreads across regions
• High CDR: Bubonic Plague

STAGE 2: RECEDING PANDEMICS

• Improved sanitation, better nutrition/food security, medicine
• Pandemics are still a slight issue
• Increased Life Expectancy

STAGE 3: DEGENERATIVE DISEASES

• Fewer infectious disease deaths
• Rise in death from aging: cancer, strokes, hearth disease
• Yet longer life expectancy and lower death rates
• Population growth

STAGE 4: DELAYED DEGENERATIVE AND LIFESTYLE DISEASES

• Medical advances extended life expectancy
• Better diets, reduced use of tobacco
• Life expectancy is at its highest
• One problem: Junk food and sedentary lifestyles

STAGE 5: REEMERGENCE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE

• Infectious and parasitic diseases make a return

• Resistance to antibiotics

• Disease mutation

• Rising Urbanization

• Lowering life expectancy

  </p>

2.5 IMPORTANT VOCABULARY

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)- Shows five typical stages of population change that countries experience as they modernize

Stage 1 DTM (Characteristics)- High Stationary; low population growth rate due to a high birth rate and a high death rate, poor sanitation, prone to diseases, very young population structure, agriculture and hunter gathering economies (ex: scattered isolated groups

Stage 1 Population Pyramid (Shrub)- Populations that are not growing, rectangular shape that displays somewhat equal percentages across age cohorts. High death and birth rates

Stage 2 DTM (Characteristics)- Early Expanding; Rapid decrease in a country’s death rate (nutrition, sanitation and medicine improve) while the birth rate remains high but fluctuating (reflects desires for big families), very young population, rural agricultural, less developed society (ex: Mali and South Sudan)

Stage 2 Population Pyramid (Tree)- People are reproducing at a higher rate than they die, low life expectancy and high birth rates. Wide base and narrow top

Stage 3 DTM (Characteristics)- Late Expanding; Total population is increasing rapidly, death rates will remain low and steady, birth rates will fall quickly (decrease in the need for child labor), young; rising life expectancy, people go from farms to cities, emerging/industrializing economies (ex: Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia)

Stage 3 Population Pyramid (House)- Wide bottom (but not as wide as stage 2), narrow top. Death rates are low and birth rates decrease

Demographic Momentum- As countries transition from early Stage 3 into Stage 4, population will continue to grow for at least one generation

Stage 4 DTM (Characteristics)- Low Stationary; Total population is high and growing slowly, balanced low birth rate death rate which means very low growth, balanced population with more aging, urbanized service economy, highly developed, rising gender equity (ex: United States, China)

Stage 4 Population Pyramid (Box)- When the share of population remains constant in different age groups over the period of time. It represents situation of low fertility, low mortality and high life expectancy. Indicates slow population growth or stable population

Stage 5 DTM (Characteristics)- Declining; Total population is high but starting to decline due to the birth rate falling below the death rate. Very old population structure, urbanized service economy, highly developed (Ex: Japan, Germany)

Stage 5 Population Pyramid (Cup)- Top-heavy population pyramid with higher proportions in older age groups, declining population

Epidemiological Transition Model (ETM)- An extension of the demographic transition model that explains the changing death rates and more common causes of death within societies