Unit 9- Nigeria

9.2

• State and Economy

  • The Nigerian state plays a central role in economic decision making.

    • Not to a state-capitalist level (they aren’t controlling every industry, private corporations/businesses); they are interventionist (setting policy with a clear goal of getting a certain outcome)

    • The policy that they set, dictates what happens in the economy (used as a tool)

  • Most of the nation’s revenues, and nearly all its hard currency, are channeled through the government (rents)

    • The government collects the money and distributes it (states and localities)

  • The Nigerian oligarchy exists because politically-powerful individuals gain lucrative government contracts.

    • A few people govern

    • opposite way of Russia

  • The majority survive by working in Nigeria’s informal sector (approx. 1/5 of Nigeria’s GDP)

    • Informal sector: economic activities that are not regulated by the government and typically operate outside formal labor laws and protections (i.e. street vendors)

  • Origins of Economic Decline

    • In colonial Nigeria, agricultural was the key economic activity.

    • Agriculture declined from 80% of exports in 1960 to 2% of exports in 1980.

  • Origins of Economic Decline

    • This shift away from agriculture corresponds to the shift toward petroleum.

    • The growth of Nigeria’s oil industry led to corruption and ultimate crash.

  • From 1985 to the Present: Deepening Economic Crisis and the Search for Solution

    • Structural Adjustment Program (IMF and WTO): economic reform programs with hope to grow the economy, become more interconnected, use resources wisely, limit oligarchs, provide loans, and force austerity measures

    • Economic Policy

      • Oil revenues increased the state’s involvement in the economy

        • the state was influential in the oil industry, as oil revenue grew so did the government’s influence (managerial role)

      • Privatization

      • Importance of paying off Nigeria’s foreign debts

  • Millenium Development Goals (UN):

    • eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

    • promote gender equality and empower women

    • reduce child morality

    • improve maternal health

    • combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

    • ensure environmental sustainability

    • develop a global partnership for development

  • Nigeria’s Programs:

    • Vision 2010: President Sani Abacha

    • National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS) Program: President Olusegun Obasanjo

    • Vision 20:2020: President Goodluck Jonathan

    • Goals of these programs:

      • restoring democratic rule

      • restructuring and professionalizing the military

      • lowering the population growth rate

      • rebuilding education

      • meaningful privitization

      • diversifying the export base beyond oil

      • central bank autonomy

  • Despite Nigeria’s oil wealth (10th largest reserves in the world), the country is underdeveloped; resource curse (lots of oil wealth that does not improve the standard of living)

    • HDI - 161st out of 189

    • GDP per capita gas risen steadily (next slide), but the wealth is very unequally distributed. (GINI index)

    • Less than 1% of GDP spent on education and health each.

    • There are still high rates of poverty (38.9%).

    • Nigeria’s provision of basic education, health care, and other social services remains woefully inadequate.

    • HIV/AIDS

      • Subsaharan and West Africa were hit by the AIDS epidemic

      • Prevention and Medication are expensive → many countries cannot afford it widespread

• State and Economy:

  • Ethnic and Religious Cleavages

    • The central government controls access to most resources and economic opportunities

      • The group in power favors their group —> exacerbates the cleavages

    • Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba dominate national politics (among 250+ ethnic groups)

      • Hausa: northern Nigeria

      • Igbo: southeast

      • Yoruba: middle-belt (concentrated in southwest of the middle belt)

      • If you are one of the other 250 groups that does not fit with the largest groups, you may feel like the government does not adequately represent you

    • Skepticism between Muslims and Christians (roughly 50/50 split)

    • North-South divide, too.

  • Gender Differences

    • Tribal and cultural traditions have pretty strong views to a woman’s view in society

      • More traditional (women belong in the home)

    • Women’s associations in the past tended to be elitist, urban based (wealthier areas), and concerned with trade, children, household welfare, and religion.

      • Classist in nature (for people who fall in the upper class of society)

    • Women are increasingly focused on political issues and access to government and social services.

      • Micro-loans: are a program started by western organizations to help people in impoverished places (typically asia and africa); around like $500 USD

        • A micro-loan would be given to a woman to start her own business → established a market

    • Only 29/469 legislators are women (6.2%) - 2019 Elections

• Environmental Issues (when a country is developing, the environment is second to the economy):

  • Water

    • Northern Nigeria is located on the edge of the Sahel (just south of the Sahara)

    • The region is heavily dependent on seasonal rains

      • It rains → water collects

    • The drying of Lake Chad is a major issue (90%)

      • Due to the world warming and population growing → harder to obtain more water to fulfill societal needs (agriculture, water, etc.)

      • Drained faster than it can be replenished

      • Magnified by climate change and population growth

    • “Climate Refugees”: when the climate of where they live becomes inhospitable/less hospitable

      • Notably, the Fulani herdsman moving south

    • doesn’t address the problem of clean water

  • Pollution

    • Niger Delta (majority of oil)

      • The pollution from the oil industry has killed off the local fish stock

    • Developing countries that have resources do not have as strict safety measures

    • Air pollution from the gas flares from oil wells

    • Ogoni (small ethnic group) started to protest in the 1990s

      • the government/military cracked down → led to more protests (hence the current violence in the Niger Delta today)

    • Growing pressure from the nation’s population explosion

      • 1. lots of babies

      • 2. if you in a poorer/desolate country, people move (moving to Nigeria) → strains resources (need to produce more energy, oil, etc.)

• Nigeria in the Growing Economy

  • Nigeria and the Regional Political Economy

    • Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

      • Mostly fallen short re: economic integration

        • try to put a market together like the EU (shared currency) → didn’t work

      • Moderate success with social integration

        • You can travel between countries in ECOWAS like its the EU

      • Most successful with security cooperation

        • Troops have been sent due to ECOWAS bonds to deter violence/wars/terrorism

  • Nigeria and the Political Economy of the West

    • Close relations with the U.S.

      • oil: the US tends to be close to most oil countries (except Venezuela, Russia, and Iran)

      • Boko Haram: War on Terror

    • Tense relations with the U.S. (values)

      • gender, ethnicity, religion, etc.

• Federalism and State Structure

  • First Republic (1963-1966) - Westminster model/parliamentary system (à la the United Kingdom)

    • Chose a parliamentary system due to familiarity when under the UK’s colonial rule

  • Military Rule (1966-1979) - military coups

    • 1966 military coup

    • Creation of 12 states

    • 1967-1970 Biafran secession and civil war

    • 1976 created 7 more states

  • Second Republic (1979-1983) - presidential system (à la the United States)

    • Olusegun Obasanjo

  • Military Rule (1983-1993) -

    • 1983 military coup led by General Muhammadu Buhari

    • 1985 military coup led by General Ibrahim Babangida

    • 1987 created 2 more states

    • 1991 moved capital from Lagos to Abuja

    • 1991 created 9 more states

  • Third Republic (1993)

    • Presidential election results annulled

    • Military coups led by Sani Abacha

  • Military Rule (1993-1999)

    • 1996 created 6 more states

    • Noted for human rights violations (assassination of Ogoni activist, Ken Saro-Wiwa)

  • Fourth Republic (1999-present) - still U.S.-style presidential system, moves toward consolidation

    • Presidential System

    • Presidential Obsansjo (1999-2007)

    • President Yar’Adua (2007-2010)

    • President Jonathan (2010-2015)

    • President Buhari (2015-2023)

    • President Tinubu (2023-present)

• Federalism and State Structure (in the Fourth Republic)

  • Strong executive constrained by a system of formal checks and balances

    • Formal system means the Constitution and the law prescribe how the checks and balances happen (vetos, funding, can’t serve two branches at once, etc.)

  • Bicameral legislature (National Assembly) - 

    • House of Representatives (lower)- SMDP

    • Senate (upper)- 109 senators with 36 states (each state gets 3 and 1 additional for Abuja)/multi-member

  • Independent judiciary

    • Consolidated

    • Mix of common law with some customary and Sharia

  • Nigeria’s federal structure

    • 36 states; 774 local governments (states have more power)

    • Marble cake federalism

  • Informal norm of ethnic rotation (formal practice of federal character)

    • Ethnic quotas in the legislature; different ethnic groups have representation (primarily the larger groups)

• The Executive:

  • The relationship between the military and the executive

  • Obasanjo’s rejected attempt for a 3rd term (2007)

    • Tried to run for a third term

    • Test on democracy

  • Buhari’s peaceful transition of power (2023)

    • First time that a president served two terms in Nigeria and peacefully left office (stepped aside for Bola Tinubu)

  • The Bureaucracy

    • Big because there are so many government workers

    • Nigeria has a large stake in economic decision making

    • Lots of revenue goes through the federal government (larger government → larger bureaucracy)

  • Prebendalism: Patterns of political behavior that rest on the justification that official state offices should be utilized for the personal benefit of officeholders, as well as of their support group of clients, particularly of the same ethnicity of religion (focuses more on ethnic/religious conflict)

    • Their version of clientelism (more about political supporters)

• Other State Institutions:

  • The Military

    • Again, the relationship between the military and the executive

    • Each of Nigeria’s “numbered republics” is separated by military rule

    • Counterinsurgency - Boko Haram

    • ECOWAS (Nigeria the center)

  • The Judiciary

    • The federal judiciary has regained autonomy and credibility post-military rule

    • Courts are (mostly) based on English common law (common law is supreme)

    • State and Local Judiciaries

      • Northern courts - Shari’a law

      • Southern courts (middle-belt region) - customary law (based upon local traditions)

• Subnational Governments:

  • Subnational Government

    • 36 states, 774 localities

      • Petrostate: oil

      • Of note, the centralization of oil revenues has exacerbated competition between the federal, state, and local governments

      • About 90% of state and local incomes are received directly from the federal government

      • There is widespread skepticism about redistributive policy (taking from one group and taking from another) → worse because conflict between different ethnic and religious groups

  • The Policy-Making Process

    • Based on top-down directives (recall the “strong executive”)

      • Federal government sets priorities that the states execute

• The Legislature

  • From independence (1960) until the first coup (1966); the First Republic → Westminster model (parliamentary model)

    • The lower house was elected by the people (similar to the House of Commons)

    • Instead of the upper house being hereditary, the executive appointed

  • 1966-1979 (first coup) → Supreme Military Council

    • blending of politics and military that we want to avoid

  • Second Republic with civilian rule (1979-1983) → U.S.-style bicameral legislature

    • instead of a parliamentary system (fusion of powers, etc.) → separate presidential election from our legislative elections, bicameral legislature, etc.

  • 1989 failed Third Republic

  • 1999 Fourth Republic (current state)

  • Despite periods of military rule, the U.S.-style bicameral structure has endured

  • Senate

    • 109 members (36 states total); Based on equal state representation

      • 3 senators from each of 36 states, plus 1 senator from Abuja (36x3+1=109)

      • each state is divided into 3 senatorial district

      • plurality is used in each senatorial district to elected the 1 member per district

    • Each state is divided into 3 districts; each district elects 1 senator using FPTP

    • 4 year terms

      • The US has staggered elections; Nigeria doesn’t

      • They re-elected the ENTIRE Senate every 4 years with no term limits

    • Party Breakdown:

      • APC: 58

      • PDP: 37

      • Labour: 7

  • House of Representatives

    • 360 members elected in SMDP, FPTP elections

      • 360 districts, each hosts a plurality election

    • The division of seats by state is based on population (similar to the U.S.)

    • 4 year terms

    • Party Breakdown:

      • APC: 175

      • PDP: 118

      • Labour: 35

• Political Parties and the Party System

  • Historically, political parties were associated with particular ethnic groups

    • Three-region federation, created by the British, included one region for each major ethnic group (Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba).

      • within each region, a political party was born

    • This created a “winner take all” mentality for politics (3 parties that were each composed of a different ethnic group → worsened tensions because each ethnicity had different priorities)

      • The parties prioritized their ethnic group’s wellbeing over Nigeria’s wellbeing → held back development

    • Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) created local election thresholds for state/federal elections → this consolidated the party system (negative), but forced those parties to broaden appeal (positive)

      • Need to win 5% in 26 states to get any seats??

  • Currently, two major parties:

    • All Progressives Congress (APC)

      • Formed in 2013 by the merger of the 3 largest PDP opposition factions

        • Prior to 2013, there was an upcoming election in 2015 and the three major opposition parties merged → formed the APC to sustain a challenge to PDP

        • PDP was victorious in the 2011 elections

      • Strong in Northern and Southwestern Nigeria (Hausa-Fulani and part of the middle-belt)

      • Center/Center-Left (Nigeria generally doesn’t have many far reaching groups)

    • People’s Democratic Party (PDP)

      • made before the APC

      • Strong in Southern Nigeria

      • Center-Right

  • Importantly, current political parties are multiethnic

• Political Culture, Citizenship, and Identity

  • Political Culture, Citizenship, and Identity

    • Modernity (British/colonial) versus Traditionalism (African/pre-colonial)

    • Religion

      • Islam arrived in the 11th/12th centuries

      • Christianity spread by missionaries in the 19th century

      • Regional divide = Middle Belt = violence/volatility

• The Political Impact of Technology (bobo siwa likes this)

  • Broader questions of the relationship between technology and democracy, political accountability, etc.

  • 35.5% of Nigerians have access to internet (in their homes)

    • no proper infrastructure

  • 60.5% of Nigerians have access to electricity

  • 93% of Nigerians have a cell phone (via satellite)

    • Access to cell phones has created a network of political accountability, has enabled small-scale economic development, and so much more

• Political Challenges and Changing Agendas

  • Military’s rapid transition program produced a conflicted democratic government that must:

    • Restore key institutions

    • Secure social stability (ECOWAS + military)

    • Reform the economy (out of structural and austerity measures/less debt payments)

  • Parasitic nature of the economy

• Youth Politics and the Generational Divide (lots of living Nigerians were alive during the military rule)

• High population of youth

  • Staring to dominate the elderly

• Political parties must engage the youth in their ranks

• Nigerian Politics in Comparative Politics:

  • A Globalizing World of States

  • Governing the Economy

  • The Democratic Idea

  • Collective Identities

  • Developmental/Unfinished State

    • Has democratic institutions, not consolidated

    • high rates of poverty

    • infrastructure is subpar

    • still wrestling with historical consequences of colonialism