AI and Authoritarianism Notes

Authoritarianism as an Information Network

• Authoritarian regimes can be understood as complex information networks where information is tightly controlled by a central authority, whether it be a singular leader or a coalition of influential figures.

• This centralization of information serves as a tool for controlling the population, shaping public narratives, and promoting the regime's desired ideologies through a process known as mythmaking.

• Effective coercion hinges on possessing detailed and accurate information about social dynamics and individual behaviors, hence the reliance on surveillance and data collection by the state.

• Mythmaking helps to perpetuate the illusion of the authority's infallibility and necessity, aiding in the maintenance of power.

Authoritarianism in the 20th Century

• Historically, authoritarianism has been the predominant form of governance for most human societies over the last six millennia, ever since agricultural practices replaced nomadic lifestyles.

• The 20th century marked a significant evolution where authoritarianism evolved into totalitarian systems due to several interrelated factors that also facilitated the emergence of democratic structures:

  • Bureaucratization: Complex administrative structures became necessary to manage public life.

  • Information Legibility: The standardization of information made it possible for authorities to categorize and control populations more effectively.

  • Mass Media: The expansion of media channels allowed for widespread dissemination of state propaganda, shaping public perception and opinion.

  • Propaganda: Authoritarian regimes invested heavily in propaganda to manufacture consent among the populace and suppress dissent.

Centralized Information Flows as Bottleneck

• The centralization inherent in authoritarian and totalitarian societies created a paradox; while it was meant to streamline information flow, it often led to systemic bottlenecks.

• Authorities became overwhelmed by the sheer volume of data collected, which hindered their ability to process and respond effectively.

• This information overload rendered much of the gathered intelligence ineffective, as the inability to discern useful patterns or insights led to poor decision-making.

Case Study: Romania’s Nicolae Ceausescu

• Nicolae Ceausescu exemplified extreme surveillance practices during his regime from 1965 to 1989, driven by his paranoia regarding dissent among both citizens and political allies.

• The Securitate, Romania's secret police, saw a dramatic expansion of surveillance capabilities, including the establishment of comprehensive electronic monitoring agencies.

• Despite the Securitate's efforts to identify dissidents through extensive analysis of communications, the ineffective processing of millions of reports ultimately undermined their initiatives.

• An infamous effort included mandating all typewriters be registered to create unique typing fingerprints, showcasing the absurd lengths to which the regime would go to monitor dissent.

The Magic of Algorithms and AI

• The advancements in algorithms and artificial intelligence present solutions to the information bottlenecks faced by authoritarian regimes.

• Unlike human capabilities, which severely limit data processing (approximately 250 words per minute), AI systems can analyze vast datasets at unprecedented speeds, transforming the regulation of information.

• For instance, algorithms like ChatGPT or Meta’s Llama can quickly ingest and analyze data, finding patterns and knowledge that are imperceptible to human analysts.

• This enhancement is fundamental for Big Data applications, which utilize complex analytics and numerous metrics to synthesize insights and predict outcomes effectively.

Exhibit A: The US National Security Agency’s Skynet AI System

• Between 2014 and 2015, the NSA's implementation of AI technologies for surveillance indicated the merging of state power and advanced technology, which allowed monitoring of 55 million individuals in Pakistan through cellphone networks.

• The system processed extensive metadata to analyze communication patterns, behaviors, and social interactions to estimate the likelihood of individuals engaging in terrorist activities.

• Using such analysis, the system would categorize individuals as security threats, often leading to severe repercussions, including placement on no-fly lists and visa denials, demonstrating the power of data in national security contexts.

Electronic Panopticon

• The integration of data from diverse sources creates an 'electronic panopticon,' enabling regimes to monitor citizens comprehensively:

  • Online activities (social media posts, texts)

  • Travel behavior (airplane and hotel reservations)

  • Consumer habits (purchases)

  • Surveillance technologies (CCTV and facial recognition)

  • Geolocation data via cellphone towers and license plate readers

• In Iran, the extensive monitoring system orchestrated through cameras and technology controls public behavior, particularly targeting women and their compliance with dress codes, often resulting in punitive measures including confiscation of vehicles, university expulsions, and limitations to essential services.

Under-the-skin Surveillance

• Recent technological developments have allowed surveillance cameras to detect subtle physiological indicators such as eye movements and pupil dilation.

• These indicators can be interpreted to assess various states, including a person's interest, expertise, or even the influence of drugs/alcohol, presenting ethical concerns about privacy and bodily integrity.

• Wearable technology (smartwatches and fitness trackers) and the prospect of implantable devices further enhance personal data collection capabilities, blurring the lines between voluntary monitoring and invasive surveillance.

Scale Matters

• The scale of data processing in AI systems is critical, as larger datasets lead to better pattern recognition and higher prediction accuracy.

• Authoritarian societies, particularly ones like China, have potentially advantageous positions in leveraging AI for mass surveillance due to their extensive populations, reduced concerns about personal privacy, and the ability to harness private sector data under political directives.

The Eternal Principal-Agent Problem

• This concept, highlighted by Bostrom's paper clip experiment, underscores the inherent risks in maximizing efficiency or production without considering broader ethical implications.

• Similar reasoning can apply to the pursuit of authoritarian power, where dominating goals can overshadow morality or societal welfare.

• Exploration of various typologies within authoritarian or totalitarian frameworks is essential for understanding the unique threats each poses.

AI and Lethal Robotics

• The convergence of AI technology with lethal robotics raises profound ethical and strategic implications, necessitating thorough examination of automation in the context of warfare and law