Chapter 14 Kissinger

Summary and Study Guide: Henry Kissinger on the Nazi-Soviet Pact

Kissinger's analysis of the Nazi-Soviet Pact (Chapter 14, pages 350-368) explores this unlikely alliance and its implications for the outbreak of World War II. The pact, signed in August 1939, represented a convergence of strategic interests for both Hitler and Stalin, despite their fundamental ideological differences.

Hitler's Motives and Calculations:

• Seeking a Free Hand in the West: The pact allowed Hitler to neutralize the threat of a two-front war, enabling him to focus his military might on conquering Western Europe. He believed that once France and Great Britain were defeated, the Soviet Union would be isolated and vulnerable.

• Exploiting Soviet Resources: Hitler recognized the value of Soviet raw materials and supplies, which would prove essential for sustaining a prolonged war effort. The pact secured a steady flow of these resources to Germany.

• Underestimating Stalin's Strength: Hitler, fueled by his ideology, fundamentally underestimated the resilience and military capacity of the Soviet Union. He believed that a swift and decisive campaign could crush the Soviet military and secure vast territories in the East.

Stalin's Motives and Miscalculations:

• Territorial Expansion: The secret protocol of the pact granted Stalin control over territories in Eastern Europe, including Lithuania and portions of Poland, fulfilling his ambitions for expanding Soviet influence.

• Buying Time: Stalin, recognizing the growing threat of Nazi Germany, saw the pact as a way to buy time to strengthen the Soviet military and prepare for an eventual confrontation.

• Misjudging Hitler's Intentions: Despite mounting evidence of German military buildup and intelligence reports suggesting an imminent invasion, Stalin clung to the belief that Hitler would not risk a two-front war. This miscalculation proved disastrous.

Impact on the Course of the War:

• Enabling German Expansion: The pact facilitated Hitler's early victories in Poland and Western Europe, giving him a decisive advantage in the initial stages of the war.

• Postponing the Inevitable Clash: While delaying the conflict between Germany and the Soviet Union, the pact ultimately failed to prevent war. Hitler, emboldened by his successes in the West, turned his attention eastward, launching Operation Barbarossa in June 1941.

Beyond the Pact: Tensions and Maneuvering:

• Stalin's Suspicions: Even after the pact was signed, Stalin remained deeply suspicious of Hitler's long-term intentions. He sought to strengthen his position by securing a buffer zone in Finland (leading to the Winter War) and consolidating Soviet control in the Baltic states.

• Hitler's Diplomatic Overtures: As Hitler prepared for war with the Soviet Union, he simultaneously sought to secure a compromise peace with Great Britain, hoping to isolate Stalin. His overtures were rebuffed by Churchill, who was determined to resist Nazi aggression.

• Economic Cooperation: Despite their ideological differences, Germany and the Soviet Union engaged in significant economic cooperation. Stalin continued to supply Germany with raw materials even as tensions mounted, fueling Hitler's war machine.

Negotiations and Mistrust:

• Molotov's Visit to Berlin (November 1940): This meeting between Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov and Hitler illustrated the deep mistrust and conflicting ambitions that characterized the relationship. Molotov's probing questions and sarcastic responses revealed his skepticism toward Hitler's grand vision of a new world order.

• Differing Objectives: Hitler sought to draw the Soviet Union into a formal alliance against Great Britain, offering a share of the spoils of a future British Empire. Molotov, however, was more interested in securing Soviet interests in Eastern Europe and expanding Soviet influence in the Balkans.

• Hitler's Frustration: Hitler found Molotov's negotiating style frustrating and his demands unacceptable. This meeting further convinced Hitler that the Soviet Union was an unreliable partner and that war was inevitable.

Key Takeaways:

• Realpolitik and Ideological Conflict: The Nazi-Soviet Pact exemplified the triumph of realpolitik over ideological considerations. Both Hitler and Stalin, driven by strategic calculations, were willing to set aside their fundamental ideological differences to achieve their respective goals.

• Miscalculations and Missed Opportunities: The sources suggest that both Hitler and Stalin made significant miscalculations regarding each other's intentions and capabilities. These misjudgments contributed to the outbreak of war and its devastating consequences.

• The End of an Illusion: The Nazi-Soviet Pact, a brief interlude of uneasy cooperation, ultimately proved to be an illusion. Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union shattered the pact and unleashed a conflict that would profoundly reshape the geopolitical landscape of Europe and the world.

Note: While the sources provide insights into the diplomatic and strategic dimensions of the Nazi-Soviet Pact, further research may be needed to explore the social, economic, and cultural implications of this historical period.

Diplomatic Maneuvering and Stalin's Offers: A Closer Look at Molotov's Berlin Visit

Building on the previous summary, a closer examination of Molotov’s visit to Berlin in November 1940, as described by Kissinger (pages 355-362), reveals the intricate diplomatic dance between Germany and the Soviet Union in the shadow of the Nazi-Soviet Pact. While on the surface, the pact suggested a united front, underlying tensions, mistrust, and diverging ambitions simmered beneath the surface.

Molotov's Mission and Hitler's Goals:

• Exploring Expansion and Solidifying Gains: Molotov's visit aimed to solidify Soviet gains from the pact and potentially explore further expansion, particularly in the Balkans and the Middle East. His objective was to secure Soviet influence in these strategically vital regions and enhance the USSR's position as a global power.

• Drawing the USSR into War: Hitler, however, had different objectives. He hoped to formally draw the Soviet Union into the war against Great Britain, envisioning a grand alliance that would crush British resistance and pave the way for a new world order dominated by the Axis powers.

Conflicting Visions of a New World Order:

• Hitler's Grandiose Plans: Hitler, during lengthy monologues, outlined his ambitious vision of a global realignment, promising the Soviet Union a share of the spoils from a defeated British Empire. He envisioned a future where British influence would be eradicated, and vast territories in Asia and Africa would be divided among the Axis powers.

• Molotov's Probing Questions: Molotov, rather than being swept up in Hitler's rhetoric, responded with a series of pointed and sarcastic questions. He questioned the specifics of Hitler's proposed division of the world and expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of such grand plans. His inquiries highlighted the fundamental disconnect between Hitler's idealized vision and the practical realities of international power dynamics.

Specific Offers and Demands:

• Joining the Tripartite Pact: Hitler formally invited the Soviet Union to join the Tripartite Pact (which already included Germany, Italy, and Japan), seeking to solidify a military alliance against Great Britain. He offered Stalin control over territories in the Middle East and access to warm-water ports in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, aiming to entice him with the prospect of significant territorial gains.

• Soviet Demands: In return, Stalin, through Molotov, presented a set of counter-demands that focused on consolidating and expanding Soviet influence in Eastern Europe. These demands included:

  • Recognition of Soviet control over Finland, Bulgaria, and Romania.

  • Establishment of Soviet military bases in the Dardanelles Straits (controlling access to the Black Sea).

  • Recognition of Baku (a strategically important oil-producing region in Azerbaijan) as falling within the Soviet sphere of influence.

  • Guarantees of Japanese neutrality in a potential conflict between Germany and the Soviet Union.

A Clash of Egos and Unrealistic Expectations:

• Hitler's Frustration: Hitler, accustomed to dictating terms and expecting deference, found Molotov's assertive stance and challenging questions infuriating. He became increasingly convinced that the Soviet Union was an untrustworthy partner driven solely by its own self-interest.

• Stalin's Calculated Risk: Stalin, by presenting such ambitious demands, may have been testing Hitler's resolve and gauging his willingness to accommodate Soviet ambitions. Alternatively, he might have been deliberately stalling, buying time while the Soviet Union prepared for the inevitable confrontation with Germany.

The Breakdown of Negotiations and the Road to War:

• No Agreement Reached: Molotov's visit to Berlin ended without a formal agreement. The two sides remained locked in a stalemate, unable to reconcile their conflicting ambitions and deeply suspicious of each other's motives.

• Hitler's Decision: The failure of negotiations further solidified Hitler's determination to invade the Soviet Union. He saw Stalin's demands as unreasonable and viewed the Soviet Union as an obstacle to his plans for eastward expansion.

• Stalin's Continuing Miscalculations: Despite the breakdown in negotiations and mounting evidence of German military preparations, Stalin continued to believe, or at least hoped, that Hitler would not risk a two-front war. This miscalculation would prove to be a fatal error, leaving the Soviet Union unprepared for the German invasion in June 1941.

Analyzing the Diplomatic Interplay:

• Probing and Testing: Molotov's visit served as an opportunity for both sides to probe each other's intentions, test the limits of the Nazi-Soviet Pact, and assess their respective bargaining positions. The meeting exposed the fundamental incompatibility of their long-term goals and the deep mistrust that characterized their relationship.

• Hidden Agendas: Both Hitler and Stalin engaged in a complex diplomatic game, presenting grandiose visions and seemingly generous offers while simultaneously concealing their true intentions. Each leader sought to maximize their own strategic advantage, leading to a clash of egos and unrealistic expectations.

• A Prelude to War: The failure of the Berlin talks marked a turning point in the relationship between Germany and the Soviet Union. It signaled the end of any pretense of cooperation and accelerated Hitler's preparations for war. The breakdown in negotiations paved the way for the devastating conflict that would engulf the Eastern Front just a few months later.

Kissinger's account of Molotov's Berlin visit underscores the intricate and volatile nature of the Nazi-Soviet relationship. The diplomatic maneuvering and failed attempts at compromise highlight the precarious balance of power that existed in Europe on the eve of World War II and provide a valuable insight into the complex strategic calculations of two of the twentieth century's most ruthless dictators.

1. Background of Diplomatic Relations (Pre-1939)

• Prior to WWII, Soviet-German relations were marked by periods of both cooperation and tension. Both nations viewed each other with deep suspicion but saw temporary alignment of interests in weakening Western powers.

2. The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) – 1939

• Signing Date: August 23, 1939

• Provisions: Germany and the Soviet Union agreed not to attack each other, and to remain neutral if either was attacked by a third party.

• Secret Protocol: This protocol divided Eastern Europe into German and Soviet spheres of influence, including the partition of Poland and areas in the Baltic states.

• Significance: The pact shocked the world, especially given the ideological rift between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. It provided Germany a free hand to invade Poland without fear of Soviet intervention, initiating WWII in Europe.

3. Partition and Occupation of Poland – 1939

• After Germany’s invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, the Soviet Union invaded from the east on September 17.

• Partition Outcome: Poland was divided along the lines set by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. The German-Soviet friendship treaty formally solidified this division.

4. Economic and Military Cooperation

• Trade Agreements: The Soviet Union supplied Germany with vital raw materials (oil, grain, rubber, manganese) that were critical to the German war effort, particularly in circumventing British blockades.

• Military Supplies: Germany, in return, provided military and technological equipment, though tensions remained as each side anticipated eventual conflict.

5. Strategic Concerns and Territorial Ambitions

• Germany's Strategic Goals: Hitler viewed the pact as temporary, primarily a way to avoid a two-front war. He planned to invade the Soviet Union, seeing it as the key to German "Lebensraum" (living space).

• Soviet Calculations: Stalin saw the pact as a means to gain time to build up Soviet defenses, hoping the Western democracies would weaken Germany in prolonged conflict.

6. Early Signs of Strain

• Despite the pact, both Germany and the Soviet Union took steps indicating mistrust:

  • Germany’s Diplomatic Efforts: Hitler courted Romania and Finland, both of which had territories of interest to the Soviet Union.

  • Soviet Expansion: The USSR moved to annex the Baltic states and parts of Finland, alarming Germany and creating tensions in their uneasy alliance.

7. Operation Barbarossa and Breakdown of Relations

• Planning for Invasion: By late 1940, Hitler had ordered preparations for an invasion of the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa), seeing the USSR as the ultimate ideological and military adversary.

• Intelligence and Warnings: Stalin received numerous warnings from Western and Soviet intelligence of an impending German attack but largely disregarded them, believing Germany would not risk a two-front war until Britain was defeated.

• Invasion Launch: On June 22, 1941, Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, marking the end of the Nazi-Soviet Pact and beginning a brutal conflict on the Eastern Front.

Key Themes and Analysis

• Ideological Opposition and Pragmatic Cooperation: Despite opposing ideologies, the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany cooperated out of necessity, each hoping to use the other to further its own goals.

• Diplomatic Deception: Both Hitler and Stalin engaged in deception, with Hitler presenting himself as a temporary ally to Stalin while planning his eventual invasion, and Stalin using the pact to secure Soviet territorial ambitions.

• Impact of the Pact on WWII: The Nazi-Soviet Pact allowed Germany to invade Poland and focus on Western Europe without immediate concern for the Eastern Front, profoundly impacting the early phase of WWII.

Overview of Diplomatic Context and the Nazi-Soviet Pact

1. Germany and Soviet Union Initial Diplomatic Outlook
   Before the Nazi-Soviet Pact (1939), Germany and the Soviet Union maintained tense yet mutually cautious relations. Both countries, historically antagonistic, saw potential for cooperation but were wary of ideological differences. Soviet diplomacy, led by Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, focused on leveraging Germany to Soviet advantage in light of Western Europe’s suspicion and Germany’s aggression.

2. Nazi-Soviet Pact and Initial Agreements
   The Nazi-Soviet Pact (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) in August 1939 marked a significant diplomatic shift. Ribbentrop, Germany’s Foreign Minister, and Molotov negotiated terms ensuring mutual non-aggression, allowing Hitler’s invasion of Poland without Soviet interference and enabling Stalin to consolidate power in Eastern Europe.

3. Secret Protocols and Territorial Division
   Integral to the Nazi-Soviet Pact were secret protocols that outlined the division of Eastern Europe into respective “spheres of influence.” This division allowed the USSR to claim territories in the Baltic states, Finland, and parts of Romania. Hitler agreed to Soviet control in these areas, facilitating a German advance westward without Eastern opposition.

Molotov’s Diplomatic Maneuvering (1939-1941)

4. Molotov's Strategy and Relations with Germany Post-Pact
   Following the Nazi-Soviet Pact, Molotov focused on expanding Soviet influence by pressing territorial claims sanctioned by the secret protocols. The Soviet Union’s occupation of Eastern Poland, along with Baltic states, highlighted the impact of the agreement. Diplomatic interactions with Ribbentrop grew complex as Soviet intentions in Eastern Europe continued to unsettle Germany.

5. Negotiations in 1940: Molotov’s Visit to Berlin
   In 1940, as Germany’s warfront shifted west, Molotov visited Berlin to clarify Soviet claims in Eastern Europe and to discuss future Soviet-German relations. Molotov’s discussions with Hitler and Ribbentrop emphasized the Soviet desire for further expansion, including influence over Bulgaria and control of the Dardanelles. However, German resistance revealed a growing conflict of interest, especially with Hitler’s strategic aim toward a Soviet invasion.

6. Ribbentrop’s Efforts to Strengthen the Alliance
   Ribbentrop sought to secure a more formalized alliance that would have defined mutual assistance, even proposing a four-power pact including Japan and Italy. Ribbentrop’s overtures were met with Soviet caution, as Molotov remained skeptical of binding commitments, reflecting Soviet awareness of Germany’s shifting focus toward the USSR.

Breakdown and Growing Tensions (1940-1941)

7. Shifts in German Intentions: Operation Barbarossa
   By 1941, Hitler’s plans had evolved toward an invasion of the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa), despite ongoing diplomatic exchanges. The continued Soviet expansion into Eastern Europe and strategic locations, such as the Balkans, conflicted with German plans for the region. Hitler’s refusal to consider Soviet interests in the Dardanelles and the Balkans marked a clear divergence from the earlier Nazi-Soviet understanding.

8. Soviet Preparations and Diplomatic Warnings
   Molotov became increasingly concerned about German intentions, particularly as German forces amassed along the Soviet border. Stalin, still hoping to avoid conflict, instructed Molotov to continue diplomatic channels, even as evidence suggested German hostility. Efforts to negotiate stalled as Germany’s strategic focus shifted irrevocably towards invasion.

Summary of Diplomatic Impact

• Nazi-Soviet Pact Outcome
  Initially, the Nazi-Soviet Pact provided both nations strategic advantages: Germany secured a pathway for Western expansion without Eastern interference, while the Soviet Union expanded its territorial control. However, conflicting ambitions and Hitler’s ideological commitment to anti-Bolshevism set the stage for inevitable conflict.

• Molotov and Ribbentrop’s Diplomatic Limitations
  Diplomatic exchanges between Molotov and Ribbentrop failed to resolve fundamental conflicts. While both aimed to maintain a non-aggression front, Molotov’s territorial ambitions clashed with Hitler’s plans, especially as Germany turned eastward.