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Demography – Vocabulary Flashcards (Lecture 2)

Recap from Lecture 1

  • Canvas, course format, syllabus, readings, grading, quizzes, exams, exam prep meetings, discussion board, course expectations and policies
  • Outline of topics covered in the course
  • Final thoughts on the course intro

DEMOGRAPHY MATTERS TODAY

  • The New York Times article (Aug. 25–26, 2025) highlights how today’s typical college student lives a different reality from the elite campus stereotype:
    • There are more than 19 million college students in the United States
    • Many live close to home, juggle work, or care for children while studying
    • A substantial share are enrolled part time or attend community colleges
    • The higher education system faces strain from budgets, demographic shifts, and political pressures
  • Key statistics from the article and related slides (illustrative):
    • 43 percent of undergraduates attend community colleges
    • 20 percent of all undergraduate students are parents
    • Roughly 1.4 million undergraduate students are single mothers
    • About 75 percent of community college students are enrolled part time
    • 10.3 million students take at least some classes online; a sizable portion take exclusively online courses (about 26% online, 11% a decade ago for comparison)
    • The average student debt load is around $19,000 (with higher amounts for graduates)
    • Two-thirds of student loan debt is held by women; racial gaps exist in debt levels
    • More than $100 billion in federal, state, and local aid was disbursed to undergraduates; Pell Grants exceed $31 billion
    • 41 million people attended college but did not graduate
  • Relevance to demography: illustrates how population structure, distribution, and characteristics affect education, policy, and social outcomes in a modern society

What is Demography?

  • Required reading: Poston and Bouvier, Chapter 1
  • Poston & Bouvier definition (condensed):
    • Demography studies the size, composition, and distribution of populations
    • It examines changes in population size and composition over time
    • It analyzes the components of these changes: fertility, mortality (death), and migration
    • It investigates the factors that affect these components
    • It considers the consequences of changes in population size, composition, and distribution, including changes within the components themselves
  • Etymology:
    • Greek roots: demos = population; graphia = description/write-up
    • Demos + graphia = writing about population
    • Term coined by Achille Guillard (Belgian statistician) in 1855
  • Broad definition (Poston & Bouvier):
    • The scientific study of the size, composition, and distribution of human populations and their changes resulting from fertility, mortality, and migration
    • Demography also concerns how large or small populations are, how populations are composed (age, sex, marital status, etc.), and how they are distributed geographically (urban vs rural)
    • It focuses on changes over time and the processes of fertility, mortality, and migration

Significance of Two Phrases re: Demography

  • Two phrases to know and their meanings:
    • "Demography is destiny" — the idea that demographic forces shape macro-level social, economic, and political outcomes and constrain policy options
    • "We are all population actors" — every individual or group contributes to demographic trends through decisions about fertility, migration, mortality, education, labor, and behavior; collective actions shape population dynamics

Population Europe: What is Demography All About?

  • Resource reference: Population Europe video/resource page
  • Purpose: to provide an overview of what demography entails and why it matters in policy and research contexts

Concerns of Demography

  • Major concerns/questions within demography include:
    • Population size: how many people live in a given area (absolute scale)
    • Population growth or decline: whether the population is increasing or decreasing over time
    • Population processes: the mechanisms that drive change (fertility, mortality, migration)
    • Population distribution: how people are spread across space (urban/rural, regional, international)
    • Population structure: age and sex composition (e.g., age cohorts, sex ratio)
    • Population characteristics: education, marital status, nativity, race/ethnicity, and other sociodemographic traits

Population Size

  • Definition: the number of people in a given geographic area
  • Tools/ensembles: U.S. Census Bureau Population Clock as a dynamic reference
  • Illustrative significance: helps frame resource needs, planning, and policy (schools, healthcare, housing, infrastructure)

Population Size: Largest U.S. States (2020 Census)

  • Top states by population (2020 Census):
    • California: 39,538,223
    • Texas: 29,145,505
    • Florida: 21,538,187
    • New York: 20,201,249
    • Pennsylvania: 13,002,700
  • Note: these figures reflect 2020 census counts and show large-state scale differences that drive regional demographics, politics, and economics

Population Size: 20 Largest U.S. Cities (2020 Census)

  • Top cities by population (2020 Census):
    • New York, New York: 8,804,190
    • Los Angeles, California: 3,898,747
    • Chicago, Illinois: 2,746,388
    • Houston, Texas: 2,304,580
    • Phoenix, Arizona: 1,608,139
  • This city scale data highlights urban concentration and its implications for housing, transportation, and services

Population Change: Absolute Change (2010–2020)

  • States ranked by absolute population change (2010–2020):
    • Texas: 3,999,944
    • Florida: 2,736,877
    • California: 2,284,267
    • Georgia: 1,024,255
    • Washington: 980,741
    • North Carolina: 903,905
    • New York: 823,147
    • Arizona: 759,485
    • Colorado: 744,518
    • Virginia: 630,369
    • Tennessee: 564,735
    • Utah: 507,731
    • New Jersey: 497,100
    • South Carolina: 493,061
    • Massachusetts: 482,288
    • Oregon: 406,182
    • Nevada: 404,063
    • Maryland: 403,672
    • Minnesota: 402,569
    • Indiana: 301,726
    • Pennsylvania: 300,321
    • Idaho: 271,524
    • Ohio: 262,944
    • Alabama: 244,543
    • Oklahoma: 208,002
    • Wisconsin: 206,732
    • Michigan: 193,691
    • Kentucky: 166,469
    • Missouri: 165,986
    • Iowa: 144,014
    • Nebraska: 135,163
    • Louisiana: 124,385
    • North Dakota: 106,503
    • Arkansas: 95,606
    • Hawaii: 94,970
    • Montana: 94,810
    • Delaware: 92,014
    • District of Columbia: 87,822
    • Kansas: 84,762
    • South Dakota: 72,487
    • New Hampshire: 61,059
    • New Mexico: 58,343
    • Rhode Island: 44,812
    • Maine: 33,998
    • Connecticut: 31,847
    • Alaska: 23,160
    • Vermont: 17,336
    • Wyoming: 13,225
    • Mississippi: -6,018 (decrease)
    • Illinois: -18,124 (decrease)
    • West Virginia: -59,278 (decrease)
  • Insight: large gains are concentrated in the Sun Belt and online-friendly economies; declines occur in some Appalachian/Midwest areas

Population Change: Percentage Change (2010–2020)

  • States ranked by percentage change (2010–2020):
    • Utah: 18.4%
    • Idaho: 17.3%
    • Texas: 15.9%
    • North Dakota: 15.8%
    • Nevada: 15.0%
    • Colorado: 14.8%
    • District of Columbia: 14.6%
    • Washington: 14.6%
    • Florida: 14.6%
    • Arizona: 11.9%
    • South Carolina: 10.7%
    • Oregon: 10.6%
    • Georgia: 10.6%
    • Delaware: 10.2%
    • Montana: 9.6%
    • North Carolina: 9.5%
    • South Dakota: 8.9%
    • Tennessee: 8.9%
    • Virginia: 7.9%
    • Minnesota: 7.6%
    • Nebraska: 7.4%
    • Massachusetts: 7.4%
    • Maryland: 7.0%
    • Hawaii: 7.0%
    • California: 6.1%
    • New Jersey: 5.7%
  • Insight: percent growth emphasizes rapid growth in western and southern states, with slower or negative growth in some other areas

Population Processes

  • The three means through which populations change:
    • Fertility (+) increases population size
    • Mortality (-) decreases population size
    • Migration (+ or -) changes size and composition
  • Balancing equation (The Demographic Equation):
    • Pop.t2 − Pop.t1 = Natural Change(t1 → t2) + Net Migration(t1 → t2)
    • In alternative form: Pop.Change = [Births − Deaths] + [Immigrants − Emigrants]
  • This framework links births, deaths, and migration to overall population dynamics over time

Population Change Dynamics: Early 2010s Case Examples (Poston & Bouvier)

  • Detroit–Dearborn–Livonia Metro Area vs The Villages, Florida Metro Area vs Charleston, West Virginia Metro Area (2010–2012 period)
  • Births and Deaths:
    • Detroit area: Births 52,969; Deaths 39,989 → Natural Change +12,980
    • The Villages: Births 442; Deaths 1,215 → Natural Change −773
    • Charleston area: Births 5,943; Deaths 6,456 → Natural Change −513
  • Net Migration (2010–2012):
    • Detroit area: −42,025 (out-migration exceeds in-migration)
    • The Villages: +4,243 (net in-migration)
    • Charleston area: −592
  • Overall Population Change 2010–2012:
    • Detroit area: −29,045
    • The Villages: +3,470
    • Charleston area: −1,105
  • Note: time period specifics and metro-area dynamics illustrate how local processes (births, deaths, migration) combine to produce different population trajectories even within the same country

Components of U.S. Population Change for Whites and Latinos, 2018–2019

  • Whites:
    • Population Change: −225,380
    • Natural Change: −289,849
    • Births: 1,887,772
    • Deaths: 2,177,621
    • Net Immigration: 64,469
  • Latinos:
    • Population Change: +932,368
    • Natural Change: +778,602
    • Births: 984,203
    • Deaths: 205,601
    • Net Immigration: 153,766
  • Interpretation: the Latino population shows positive growth driven by births and immigration, while the White population shows overall decline in this period despite births, due to higher deaths and slower fertility relative to Latinos
  • Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2019 Population Estimates

Population Distribution

  • Concept: dispersal of population across geographic subareas
  • Visual/intuitive aids:
    • Notes on satellite-night imagery to illustrate urban concentration and energy use rather than strictly population counts (even though lights correlate with population in cities, it is not a perfect proxy for population density due to lighting efficiency and economic activity)
    • Night-light maps show concentration in Europe, eastern U.S., Japan, China, and India; less intensity in certain highly populated regions may reflect lighting efficiency rather than population density

Distribution of the World Population / Distribution of U.S. Population

  • Visuals available (not reproduced here) to illustrate how populations are distributed globally and within the United States
  • Key takeaway: population distribution is highly uneven, with clusters in urban agglomerations and along coasts and rivers in many countries

Population in Fourths

  • Visual representation showing population distribution across roughly four quarters of a region (e.g., California shown in four parts to illustrate concentration and spread)
  • Purpose: to convey how a large population can be unevenly distributed within a state or country

Center of Population

  • Definition/reflection: the mean center of the population is the balance point of a geographic area if every person is treated as an equal-weight point
    • Conceptual description: the United States’ mean center shifts as populations move and concentrates regionally
  • 2020 Center of Population (U.S.)
    • The Census Bureau provides the latest center-of-population data in press kits (2021 release referencing 2020 figures)
  • Historical shift patterns:
    • During the 19th century, the mean center moved roughly westward by about 600 miles (966 km)
    • In the 20th century, the shift was about 324 miles west and 101 miles south
    • Approximately 79% of the southernward shift occurred between 1950 and 2000
  • Practical takeaway: the center of population moves as distribution changes across states due to migration, fertility, and mortality patterns
  • Hartville, Missouri (2020): a slide reference indicating the 2020 Center of Population location (Census Bureau site)

Center of Population Visuals and Geography

  • Visual references: maps showing mean center movements, and regional shifts in population
  • Importance: helps demographers and planners understand long-run trends in spatial population redistribution

Population Density

  • Definition: persons per unit area (square mile or square kilometer)
  • Formula: ext{Population Density} = rac{ ext{Population}}{ ext{Area}}
  • Units: people per square mile (or per square kilometer)

Visualizing 200 Years of U.S. Population Density

  • An animated map demonstrates how density patterns have evolved over two centuries, illustrating urbanization, migration, and regional growth

Population Density: Highest Density Metrics

  • Overview: comparisons of density across states, counties, and cities reveal where people concentrate
  • Key insight: density often correlates with urban infrastructure, housing markets, and transportation networks

Residential Segregation Within Cities

  • The U.S. remains highly segregated by race/ethnicity in many places
  • Index of Dissimilarity (D): measures how evenly two groups are distributed across subareas (e.g., census tracts, blocks)
  • Scale: D ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 means perfectly integrated and 100 means complete segregation
  • Interpretation: the percentage of one group that would need to move to another area to achieve the same distribution as the other group
  • Example framework (from slides):
    • A simple five-tract city with two racial groups (A and B) and their tract-by-tract distributions
    • Sum of absolute differences across tracts yields the index; higher values indicate greater segregation
  • Practical implication: residential segregation has lasting effects on access to resources, schools, employment, and social networks

Population Structure

  • Definition: the distribution of the population by age and sex
  • Key components: age-sex pyramid, median age, sex ratio (number of males per 100 females)

Age-Sex Pyramid: Japan vs. India (2015)

  • Japan (2015) vs. India (2015) age-sex distributions illustrate different demographic structures:
    • Japan: aging population with higher shares of older age cohorts; relatively small younger cohorts; a top-heavy pyramid
    • India: younger population with a broad base of young age cohorts; a wide, triangular pyramid indicating high birth rates and a large youth cohort
  • Implications: aging societies face different policy needs (pensions, healthcare, elder care) compared with young-population countries (education, jobs, skill development)
  • Visual cue: cross-country comparison of age cohorts and sex distribution across age groups (0–4 up to 100+)

Population Characteristics

  • Key dimensions of population characterization include:
    • Age (median age)
    • Sex (sex ratio: males per 100 females)
    • Race/ethnicity (racial/ethnic composition)
    • Marital status (percent married among adults 18+)
    • Educational status (percent with bachelor’s degree or higher among 25+)
    • Nativity status (percent foreign-born)

Recap

  • DEMOGRAPHY MATTERS TODAY: “The Typical College Student Is Not Who You Think” as demonstrated by the NYT article; real-world demographic patterns shape policy and personal life
  • Core definition of demography and its scope: size, composition, distribution; changes due to fertility, mortality, and migration; factors affecting these components; consequences of demographic changes
  • Two essential phrases: "Demography is destiny" and "We are all population actors"
  • Concerns of demography: population size, growth/decline, processes, distribution, structure, and characteristics
  • Key data-driven examples: state and city population sizes, absolute and percentage changes (2010–2020), distribution visuals, and mean center concepts
  • Population processes and the Demographic Equation:
    • ext{Pop}(t2) - ext{Pop}(t1) = ext{Natural Change}(t1 o t2) + ext{Net Migration}(t1 o t2)
    • ext{Pop.Change} = [ ext{Births} - ext{Deaths}] + [ ext{Immigrants} - ext{Emigrants}]
  • Distribution and density concepts: night-light imagery caveats, global and national distribution patterns, and density as a planning metric
  • Center of population concepts and historical shifts: forward-looking tool for understanding long-run demographic momentum and spatial redistribution
  • Population structure and age-sex pyramids: interpretation of aging vs youth-heavy populations and their policy implications
  • Next lecture: continuation of the topic “What is Demography?” (recorded and distributed Tuesday, Sept. 2)