Probability Distributions: Binomial and Normal

Probability Models: Binomial and Normal Distributions

Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Model

  • Discrete Random Variable with Binary Outcomes: For such variables, the binomial model (or binomial probability distribution) is used.
  • pbinom vs. dbinom in R:
    • pbinom: Used to find the probability of a range of values for a discrete random variable (e.g., X≤5X \le 5 successes).
    • dbinom: Used to find the probability of exactly one specific value for a discrete random variable (e.g., X=13X = 13 successes).
  • Airline Example (Binomial Model):
    • Scenario: Probability of a passenger no-showing is 9%9\% (p=0.09p = 0.09), and 140140 tickets (n=140n = 140) were sold.
    • Expected value (most likely number of no-shows): n×p=140×0.09=12.6n \times p = 140 \times 0.09 = 12.6, rounded to 1313 no-shows (since people are whole numbers).
    • To find the probability of exactly 1313 no-shows, dbinom would be used.
  • Binomial Random Variable Criteria:
    • Binary outcomes: Only two possible outcomes (e.g., left-handed vs. not left-handed, renew vs. not renew). Even if a categorical variable has multiple options, it can often be reframed into a binary outcome (e.g.,