Introduction to Public Opinion

Linkage Institutions

  • Linkage institutions connect citizens to government.

  • Forms of linkage include public opinion, political parties, interest groups, and voting.

  • Over the next five weeks, these topics will be explored in detail.

Public Opinion

Definition

  • Public opinion refers to opinions expressed publicly, especially those shared with strangers.

  • It is distinct from private opinion, which comprises thoughts that individuals may not share openly, especially on sensitive topics.

Measurement of Public Opinion

  • Public opinion is based on what people are willing to disclose.

  • Measure of public opinion does not always align with people's true beliefs.

  • Example: In 2024, a survey indicated that 98.7% of registered male voters had no issue with a woman president, which is probably an overestimation of actual beliefs.

Distinction between Opinion and Fact

  • Opinion is subjective and tied to individual beliefs and values.

  • Facts are objective realities that exist independent of belief (e.g., the law of gravity).

  • The distinction between opinion and knowledge is crucial; knowledge references factual understanding of politics and government processes.

Elements of Public Opinion

1. Variability

  • Refers to how opinions can change over time.

  • Examples:

    • High variability: Public opinions on gun control fluctuate significantly over time.

    • Low variability: Opinions on abortion remain stable over decades.

  • Understanding variability helps guide polling frequency; high variability issues require more frequent polling.

2. Intensity

  • The strength with which individuals hold their opinions, which can influence voting behavior.

  • Significant feelings may drive behavior more than milder beliefs.

  • Individuals may prioritize their voting based on more intense issues over less intense ones.

3. Relevance

  • People create stronger opinions on issues that impact them directly.

  • Example: A person nearing retirement may have more nuanced opinions about Social Security than a younger person.

4. Latency

  • Refers to how prior opinions shape the formation of new opinions.

  • Example: Individuals who support government aid in general are likely to support specific aid initiatives, such as aid for starving children in fictional Sokovia.

  • Latency illustrates how we develop opinions about non-existent scenarios based on underlying beliefs.

Political Knowledge vs. Public Opinion

Definitions

  • Political knowledge is understanding factual information about government operations, including:

    • Names of key political figures.

    • Processes for legislation and governance.

  • Generally, those with greater political knowledge form deeper, more nuanced opinions.

Importance of Political Knowledge

  • A higher level of political knowledge results in:

    • More informed opinions.

    • A better grasp of the complexities of political issues.

    • Individuals with less knowledge often hold black-and-white views.

Gathering Public Opinion Data

Surveys

  • Most public opinion data is derived from surveys.

  • Past methods, such as analyzing letters to the editor, proved ineffective due to sampling bias.

Historical Context of Surveys

  • The Literary Digest was a famous failed survey example in 1936, where predictions were inaccurate due to a biased sample (predominantly wealthy subscribers).

  • George Gallup created a more effective polling methodology emphasizing random sampling to avoid bias in results.

  • Random sampling ensures every individual within a defined population has an equal chance of being selected.

Sample Sizes

  • The initial understanding was that one needed to survey many people to get an accurate measure.

  • Modern methods find that surveying approximately 1,500 people can yield accurate data for the entire US population due to probability principles.

Margins of Error

  • The margin of error is a measure of sampling error and indicates the confidence in survey results.

  • Smaller margins reflect more confidence in results, while larger margins indicate potential inaccuracies due to sampling bias.

The Art of Questioning in Surveys

Distortion through Question Wording

  • The way questions are phrased can drastically alter public response.

  • Individuals can easily skew survey results through language manipulation.

Example of Question Impact

  • High support for concepts like food aid is compared to lower support for welfare programs despite being similar in content.

  • This discrepancy highlights how different terms evoke various emotional and cognitive responses from respondents.

Conclusion

  • Public opinion surveys retain validity, but one must critically analyze questions, results, and methodologies to ensure accurate representation and understanding of public sentiment.

  • Distrust in survey data often derives from misunderstandings of statistical principles and margin of error concepts.